I often tell players that they must detach themselves from their money and accept the fact that they might lose all of the money we brought to the table. Detaching fear of losing from our game allows us to act swiftly and decisively when opportunity presents itself. Playing with “scared money” leads to indecision and opportunities lost. Optimally, you should bet only when you have an advantage. In the real world, however, there will also be times when you take a gamble on a shooter who is exhibiting a trend. Giving yourself permission to bet these shooter’s hand, however, does not mean we set aside good sense.
There are basically two things that can happen when you play craps. You can win or you can lose. If you plan your play before you start, an integral part of that plan should be determining how much you expect to win that day. That amount becomes your Win Goal. Setting a Win Goal does not mean you will stop play when you hit that goal. It simply means that once you surpass that goal you will lock up your buy-in and guarantee. As long as you continue to win you can continue to play with any incremental profit you made over and above your Win Goal. You can even set incremental goals to handle excess wins. For example, you might decide to lock up every other win as you continue to play, building upon your earlier profit. However, if the table turns and you start to lose your incremental profit do not stand there and continue to play until you lose it all. Add it to the chips you already locked up and call it a day.
On the other hand, there will inevitably be days where you lose your first bet and things continue to spiral in the wrong direction. Unchecked, this spiral may wipe you out completely. That is why you absolutely must place a loss limit on your session bankroll.
On a $500 buy-in most gaming authors will suggest a 50% or $250 loss limit. That is a good, conservative number and will work for most players. My personal loss limit on a $500 buy-in is 70%, or $350. That is not a number I randomly pulled out of my hat. It is a number I settled on after years of tracking buy-ins, loss limit sessions, and come-backs. My personal track record for making a come-back after being down $300 – $350 is strong enough that I feel comfortable with that amount of exposure. The average player, however, should not set a loss limit greater than 50% without first tracking performance to substantiate doing so.
Another queue to color up and leave is when you are being whipsawed by the table. This is the classic “zigged when I should have zagged” situation. Let’s say you lose two Pass decisions in a row and decide to transition to the Don’ts. Then you promptly lose two Don’t decisions in a row and transition back to the Pass side. You attempt to follow the trend but there is no trend. The table is choppy, and on a choppy table just about everyone loses except the house.
These types of situations are why I coined the phrase, “lose three in a row and it’s time to go” many years ago. Depending on your style of play, however, you might be able to withstand more than three consecutive losses. For example, a player who bets $5 on the Pass Line and takes double odds on every shooter would only drop $45 by losing three in a row. On the other hand, a player who bets $162 across on every shooter would be down more than ten times the amount of a Pass Line only player. His loss on those same three point-seven-outs will total $486. For that reason, I’m going to suggest you set a consecutive decision loss limit. That loss limit will be roughly half of you regular loss limit, or $125 on a $500 buy in. If you lose $125 on consecutive losses – whether it comes on two, three, or more consecutive losses – the table is trying to tell you something. Time to color up and call it a session.
This, of course, means you must become a master at totaling up the amount of money you have in the rack after each seven out. Some players use dollar chips as spacers between their red, green, and black chips to make it easier to track the totals. Others put a set amount of chips in the back rail and bet out of a working stack of less than $100 in the front rack. Still others are simply very good at estimating the number of chips they have in the rack. However you do it, you must know where you stand in regards to you win goal and loss limit at all times.
Are there other strategies you can use that will help you walk with a win? Absolutely. A friend of mine who had a bit of a discipline problem used to wear a digital watch to the tables and set the alarm to go off after one hour of play. When the alarm went off he would tally up his chips. If he was ahead he would color up and leave. If he was behind he would reset the alarm to go off again in another thirty minutes. He would continue to do this until he is either reached his loss limit or found himself ahead, at which point he would walk with a profit.
You can use exactly the same ploy with the alarm on your cell phone – with the added benefit that when it rings you can step back from the table and “answer” it while you do a visual check on your profits. If you are up for the session you can say, “Okay, be right up.” Then set your chips on the table, say “Color coming in” and mention something about meeting your wife for dinner. Then you’re off to the races.
Last of all, if the betting is hot and heavy and you’re not sure whether or not you should color up and end your session – do an emotion check. For year’s I’ve said, “If it’s not fun it’s time to run.” The reason for that is simple. Deep down on a gut level you know whether you are winning or losing. Winning is fun. Losing is not. If you are not having fun – odds are you aren’t winning. Why continue to play?
Regardless of what you use as your impetus for ending your session, it is imperative that you leave the casino after pulling the plug. If you want to sit and chat with a couple of friends, then meet them in the coffee shop. If you opt to sit at the video poker bar, an empty slot carousel, or a blackjack table you will inevitably end up back at the table buying in for another session.
The key to all of this is discipline. Discipline on winning days ought to be easy. You simply color up a win and leave, right? But most players won’t do it. Discipline on losing days ought to be easy as well. You simply pull back when you are losing and bet more when you are winning, right? But most players do just the opposite.
Want to win? Then you have to make a conscious decision to win – and stick with it. Anything else and you’re just gambling.
