If you play craps the conventional way – the mathematically correct way – you are still playing a negative expectation game. You might win in the short run. By exercising good money management skills a disciplined player may stretch a winning streak out over a period of years. But ultimately, the house still has the edge. Lump all the play of all the players together and the house holds between sixteen and twenty-six percent of the drop. Play long enough and the odds say you will lose.
The only way to win consistently is to alter the expectation of the game. Like the expert card counter at blackjack, you must learn how to turn craps negative expectation outcome into a positive one. You achieve that by influencing the occurrence of certain numbers during the roll of the dice. It’s called precision shooting, dice control, or rhythmic rolling. Some players come by it instinctively, just as there are some “naturals” in golf, baseball and football. But precision shooting is a skill that can be learned with practice and determination. The truth is, few have the patience to master it. Most never do.
Let’s compare precision shooting to football. The odds of a high school football player making it in the NCAA are 25-to-1. If he survives collegiate ball the odds against being drafted for the NFL are 30-to-1. But the odds against making it as an NFL player increase to 1,175-to-1, while only one high school player out of every 100,000 will ever suit up for the Super Bowl. Yet on every Super Bowl team there is at least one player who got there – not on native ability – but through dedication, determination and practice.
Practice. Practice. Practice. Do you have what it takes to be a Super Bowl level crapshooter? Perhaps you do. But if it were easy, everybody would be doing it.
