Comparative Strategy Analysis

[Ahigh]

Agree that hardways are expensive no matter how little you bet.

A $1 hardway costs the same as a $5 line bet per roll IIRC.

On the subject of bad things .. so this shows some worst case scenarios (string of red) for MP204 vs buy the 4/10.

This is the buy press schedule for the buy 4/10 on this chart.

@buy_press_schedule = ( 5, 10, 25, 75, 225, 675, 1000 );

The exposure on MP204 that's being hit is putting back up the 204 each time the red comes out. Those slide downs are potentially much more steep with MP204.

Also interesting to see how the higher limit press (the yellow) makes the best comeback from all those reds on this graph.

This is random data, and I just started it with a bunch of money to get a snapshot of a bad situation just to see what happens in nightmare mode for both strategies. But if you look at the press schedule, that's press all the way .. just string of red isn't as bad when it's 50 instead of 204.

[Mad Professor]

This is very interesting stuff, Ahigh.

I like the results when you run these strategies again de-randomized outcomes, and obviously I'm not surprised by the lack of profit when any of these strategies are run against random-outcomes.

I have a question though related to your own at-home tossing that you are videotaping for slo-mo analysis.

In these videos, are you using the same axially-&-facially arranged dice-set for each toss that you are trying to study, or are you using any random set with each new toss?

In line with that first question, are you attempting to use the same toss-motion, spin-rate, release-point, trajectory, and initial landing-spot with each toss, or are all of those largely changeable from toss-to-toss or session-to-session?

Thanks,

MP

[Ahigh]

I'm at the casino with my software on the laptop at the pool.

As far as my rolls, I may go into more detail later, but the short answer is that I have a throw where I do things as consistently as I can. I am not a follower of anyone else's methods of throwing. I devised my own and could be summed up as "do it the same way every day for several hours a day at the casino for a couple of years."

I can hit targets like a madman. I cannot eliminate randomness from my throws though. So if you have actual de-randomized throws, you will have to explain to me how that works.

I look for bias using the computer, and that's about it. But to even hunt for bias, I need to have thousands of throws on log with as similar initial conditions as possible (including for example is it the come out roll as one of those conditions), and I don't have that.

I never change my set. Ever. I set on boxcars. And I generally do not even try to get into some of the stuff you guys get into.

It's all about keeping that stuff the same and not trying to make correlations about sets and outcomes until I have more information.

When I have more information, I know how to say "change the set this way, and HERE would be the outcomes" and then run sims on my throw with a different set. But I am not at that stage yet, even though I know how to do that stuff.

[DeadCat]

I can hit targets like a madman. I cannot eliminate randomness from my throws though. So if you have actual de-randomized throws, you will have to explain to me how that works.

I look for bias using the computer, and that's about it. But to even hunt for bias, I need to have thousands of throws on log with as similar initial conditions as possible (including for example is it the come out roll as one of those conditions), and I don't have that.

I never change my set. Ever. I set on boxcars. And I generally do not even try to get into some of the stuff you guys get into.

It's all about keeping that stuff the same .....

Consistency IS key to derandomization, but not until you have worked out the toss that produces (more) consistant (facial) results. By that I mean we can't assume because we maybe tossing a surplus of 8's that they are the same 8's. Using a 3V set and getting a surplus of H8's is more indicative of control than evenly distributed types of surplus 8's. Sorry to state the obvious if you have already considered this, I just wanted to be clear about "consistency."

When it comes to "hitting targets" it seems to me that many of us focus too much on trying to get the dice to land ON a specific point and the result is a "lob" type of toss. I find it better to think of the landing spot as "point of initial contact" in an airplane landing (as opposed to a bomb dropping on it).

I understand that you may know all of this already and apologize if it seems that I am talking down to you. That is not my intent. It's just that focusing on hitting a target often leads to lobbing which leads to "splatter" and randomness.


-DC

[Mad Professor]

What Deadcat mentioned above is what I was alluding to in the main thrust of my question.

For example, using the very steep descent angle of your landings as you do; have you ever given any thought to using even a slightly shallower (less splatter-inducing) descent-angle, and thereby achieving a much higher degree of facial-correlation?

I know you want to 'discover' all of this completely on your own without the coloration or jaundiced thoughts of anyone else infecting or polluting the purity of each one of your own breakthroughs; but do you think there might be at least a tiny bit of value in using any of the information gleaned by the skilled-shooters who have previously cut the very same trails you are just now embarking on?


MP

[Ahigh]

I am taking my time, but I'm not yet to the point I want to change anything. I am still working on software and I'm not even yet to the point that I want to focus on collecting data and doing any changes to my shooting at all. It would be counterproductive for me at this time.

Please remember, I have been shooting an average of 3 hours per day for two and a half years now to develop my throw and motor memory. I don't want to change that, I want to record it and match it to strategies. After that I want to perform my normal routine without getting nervous and throwing differently.

I am an expert at motor memory and motor skills. I am definitely not seeking advice on how to deliver a consistent throw from anyone. But that time may come in the future, but I'm on track for now.

[Blackcloud]

UNHH!!Do you know what your signature numbers are

[DeadCat]

If you aren't derandomizing the dice at all with your toss why ingrain that muscle memory? Practicing bad or ineffective habits just means more work unlearning it later.

Kudos for wanting to break new ground and setting high goals but even Isaac Newton said (something like) "If I have seen further it is because I was standing on the shoulders of giants."

Not to say we are giants here, but there are quite a few of us who have given all of this a lot of thought and have put in thousands of combined man-hours on it. Even genius savants crack a book once in a while.

If you are worried about dogmatic thinking about the toss, don't. I think we all agree ipthat it doesn't matter exactly how you toss as long as the result is repeatable derandomization.


-DC

[realtime]

UNHH!!Do you know what your signature numbers are

Blackcloud,

You just don't understand. "The Software" is just not ready yet to tackle that complex calculation of signature numbers.

Obviously my signature numbers are just a mirage as when I first started playing I used a Big Chief tablet and a #2 pencil to tackle that arduous task.

[Ahigh]

I don't want to start problems. I don't have time for drama either at this point. I am very busy with software, and since I don't have many people doing what I think needs to be done, I have to focus.

Another thing here is that I took a 3-4 month diversion on proving that the biased dice conspiracy is total bullshit. And many that believed that have not been swayed by my efforts.

This is a bigger undertaking, and forgive me if I do not wish to prove anything to anyone. I am doing my work my way and for myself. I learned a lesson about proving things to people who already have enough evidence to have a more correct set of beliefs. I do thank you for the advice and the constructive criticism, but I'm doing just fine right now.

[Ahigh]

I'll put one more thing out there. Generally speaking, very few people have signed up to volunteer to help me and just do the work that I need to have done rather than advise how I should be doing things based on the contrast between my and their belief systems. Especially locals to Las Vegas, I could use some worker bees to help me if anyone is interested to enjoy the spoils along with me, these helpers would be first in line.

There is absolutely a risk that I am going nowhere and those who helped me would do so fruitlessly. That's the risk in spending time to help me. But I could use some help from people who just want to do some work for me.

[heavy]

Okay, a couple of questions. You say you're setting boxcars. Which iteration of the twelve set are you using? Straight sixes, parallel sixes, crossed sixes? Why did you choose that set? Easy set to find quickly? You like the results you get with it on-axis? You like the results with it off-axis? I understand you are "invested" heavily in your current toss. Have you considered the fact that a different arc or landing zone might yield better results? You sound like you are married to your toss and I'm not trying to convert you to something else. I know how frustrating that can be because I've been there and done that. Considering software, have you taken a look at Maddog's Excel-based BoneTracker? As for worker bees - can you define what type of work you are talkng about. If all you want is books of rolls I think the guys could provide you with plenty.

[Ahigh]

My set is boxcars facing up where I can read the serials. Three finger on the 5-side, thumb on the deuce side. Overhand backspin. Land close to the wall.

My criteria for selecting my set is just that it is just how I have been doing it since day 1, and while I do believe in consistency of the throw, I also believe in consistency of the set. Simplicity in a word, is the reason. Complexity abounds already and I don't need more .. yet.

I've seen BoneTracker. I haven't used it, but I sort of looked through it for ten minutes. It is absolutely the best thing out there of its kind.

As far as worker bees, I just need some more support. I am still reeling from people calling me stupid.

I think a lot of people will all of a sudden want to get involved when I start taking photos of mounds of cash I'm pulling down. But I won't need any help at that point. Basically, I'm surprised nobody is betting that I will be successful yet by trying to help me and enjoy the spoils. Everyone assumes that I need advice, but I don't. I need people to help me do the work and invest in the gear that I need.

[heavy]

Well, any time you want someone to call you stupid you can either visit the Wiz's site or rec.gambling.craps in the newsgroup. I don't think anyone will call you stupid here. In fact, I think your are very bright. And without being offensive here - I think you're a bit on the OCD side. That is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, I think just about everyone who gets involved in attempting to influence the dice is a little OCD. I know I am. However, most OCD folks are only interested in a single subject up to a point. Then they find a new world to conquer and away they go. Years ago I had a goal to get published in a major science fiction/fantasy magazine. Been there - done that. Enjoyed the journey but haven't written any SF or F in ten years. You tend to hit burn-our when you're dwelling on something like that (or this) 24/7.

I think you'll find plenty of people here willing to say "attaboy," "wow!" "good shit," etc. And you'll find that quite a few eyes glaze over as they skim over your posts.

I realize you don't believe you need any advice. You're probably going to get it anyway. Investors? There might be one or two on this forum with the interest and the means to help - although from your earlier posts on the Who is Aces High? thread it sounded as if you were financially independent. For the most part, the people who have gotten that kind of "help" around this forum are guys who really needed it. I'm still not clear on what you mean by "helping me do the work." Are you looking for shooters, trackers, in-casino blockers, numbers crunchers, or what? I don't mean to be thick here, just trying to understand.

h

[Ahigh]

The most critical investment is the support to say "YOU CAN DO IT!"

Listen, I appreciate the support guys.

I'm probably posting more here than my own forum at this point.

That says a lot about how you guys are making me feel at home.

At this moment, I'm winning and getting the VIP treatment at the pool at the Silverton.

I'm coasting after a win and I'll post back up later tonight maybe with some more updates.

[Ahigh]

I'm back home. Got about $500 in comps in the last couple days. I won a little bit, but still a ways away from the cash I need to get the $8,000 camera that's next on my list.

But I am having a new Millipede Game delivered this wednesday from California. I'm excited about that.

I am going to need to get a big win to get that camera though. But I will be focusing on charting the new strategies I'm implementing some more tonight.

I did pass line with various multiples of odds and various numbers of points covered last night at the hotel.

The don't side should go a lot quicker since the do side is done.

I am also looking at some low-edge hedge-pressure strategies. Basically strategies that grind on low edge bets and bet against very unlikely scenarios for a minimal profit leveraging a larger bankroll.

[DeadCat]

Ahigh,

If you are talking straight up gambling (not necessarily AP/DI) you already know you are talking a negative expectation game. Honestly, if I was asked what strategy to use to most likely win SOME money on ONE Hand, I'd use a Martingale derivation.

Specifically, I would find a low minimum HiGH ODDS game. I'd bet the DP for a small amount. If it loses, I'd re-bet the same amount on the DP then Lay Odds in an amount that when combined with the Flat Bet will win 2X the initial Flat Bet. if that loses, you keep the Flat bet small and increase the Odds to cover previous losses plus what you want to win, until you bump up to Max Odds, then you'd increase the Flat bet to be able to add more Odds.

The idea here is that about 60% (overall) DP bets win once the point is established, but are at the most risk on the Come-Out. By keeping the Flat bet minimal, you can make larger bets that are more likely to win. At a 10, 20 or 100X Odds table a shooter would have to set and make a lot of points to bust you out assuming you are sensibly bankrolled.

Using this method, the shooter has to set and make a long string of points to hurt you. One of those 5 pass that include 4 come-out naturals hands that wreck flat bet Martingales are much less harmful this way.

I used this quite a bit when playing a Silverton's $3, 10X Odds game waiting to shoot. I only lost once, when I quit after 9 points made in on a hand that made 13 points. I lived close by for a couple of years. They were my "home" casino during that period. They used to be better with comps but their improvements to their physical plant are nice.

HOWEVER, even though it goes without saying, betting any system will ultimately lose until you gain a player advantage.


-DC


PS. You might get more people to help on your project if you asked them to collaborate instead being "worker bees." Most people don't volunteer to be drones.

[DeadCat]

Let me toss out some paramaters and see if everyone can agree.

Starting bankroll: $2500
Table odds: $10 Game - 20X odds - $5000 max bet
Number of decisions: TBD - based on a minimum of two laps around the table during the Tunica weekend with at least one 20+ number hand. I realize some of you would like 1000 plus rolls but I doubt that can happen. We'll consult with Laguna Flats on that.

Objections? Thoughts?

OK, whenever this gets going put me down for:

$10 PL

$10 PUT w/$200 on Each the 6 and 8 WOTCO

On Table: $430
In Rack: $2070

Will modify once point is set.

[Ahigh]

Let me toss out some paramaters and see if everyone can agree.

Starting bankroll: $2500
Table odds: $10 Game - 20X odds - $5000 max bet
Number of decisions: TBD - based on a minimum of two laps around the table during the Tunica weekend with at least one 20+ number hand. I realize some of you would like 1000 plus rolls but I doubt that can happen. We'll consult with Laguna Flats on that.

Objections? Thoughts?

OK, whenever this gets going put me down for:

$10 PL

$10 PUT w/$200 on Each the 6 and 8 WOTCO

On Table: $430
In Rack: $2070

Will modify once point is set.

Awesome! The easier to code up the better, and I will put all these in. You could have two goals (DI data and non DI data) to compete against other strategies. Lower edges are going to win on random data I can tell you, as was one of my original points. This looks good.

[Ahigh]

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