I think I'm going to like it because its completed in 8 hits, profitable after 3. Yeah, it's a little risky starting with $220 inside.
I have it on pdf also, if you want me to send it, pm me with your email. Comments, opinions welcome.
4 Step Regression
Moderators: 220Inside, DarthNater
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Americraps
- Posts: 1101
- Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:42 pm
- Location: Elgin, IL
4 Step Regression
I'm usually not too crazy about playing regression strategies, but I thought I'd dabble a little. Here's what I came up with, beware, it is not tested yet.
I think I'm going to like it because its completed in 8 hits, profitable after 3. Yeah, it's a little risky starting with $220 inside.
I have it on pdf also, if you want me to send it, pm me with your email. Comments, opinions welcome.
I think I'm going to like it because its completed in 8 hits, profitable after 3. Yeah, it's a little risky starting with $220 inside.
I have it on pdf also, if you want me to send it, pm me with your email. Comments, opinions welcome.
See it in your mind FIRST...Then do it!
Re: 4 Step Regression
Thank You Americraps for the interesting strategy...I broke a bit of a losing streak this week with your 3hit chart of dicers strategy. i need the structure and was fortunate to come down before the seven. 
. the dealers at my usual gaming haunt looked at me like I was nuts 
until I left with a fat profit after a bunch of the usual short hands(3-5 throws). I will probably try this 4 step strategy next time i'm feelin $trong...edice
. the dealers at my usual gaming haunt looked at me like I was nuts until I left with a fat profit after a bunch of the usual short hands(3-5 throws). I will probably try this 4 step strategy next time i'm feelin $trong...edice-
Americraps
- Posts: 1101
- Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:42 pm
- Location: Elgin, IL
Re: 4 Step Regression
That 3 step has worked 2 for 2 in the casino for me too.
See it in your mind FIRST...Then do it!
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Americraps
- Posts: 1101
- Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:42 pm
- Location: Elgin, IL
Re: 4 Step Regression
LL- Do you mean $204 like MPs $204? I like your idea, but this is an inside betting strategy. The payoff of $49 isn't enough to do a 1 hit regression for the 1st step. I can see betting $324 across for the first hit, and hope like hell you nail a 4 or 10. But its going to take kind of long to recoup a CO7. Lets compare the 2 systems. It's complicated.
MPs $204 exposes you to a cumulative total of $408 exposure on the first two hits with a guaranteed, racked profit of $53, after 2 hits. The 4 step exposes you to $330 exposure with a racked (but not guaranteed) profit of $105 on 2 hits. Profit is not guaranteed till there's a PL decision. If the shooter 7s out, you made $105. If his hand continues, then you are back up, risking $110 to get your 3rd hit. If you get it, you have a racked profit of $140 and a guaranteed profit of $74, which could grow to a max of $231. If you don't get the 3rd hit, you lose $5.
On balance, you will get 2 hits faster with MPs across bet, vs the 4 steps (4S) inside bets. The 4S will have greater cumulative 7 exposure before the first 2 hits, but less exposure after the first 2 hits Better math dudes than me can figure it out the exact amount. MP, I'm guessing you took a look at something like this when you were formulating your $204 across, yes?
After the second hit, if the shooter 7s out, the 4S has made $105 net and pulled everything down, like the little piggy in the house made of bricks. The $204 has netted $54 and is still working with $44 exposure inside. Here's where the $204 can still make a lot of money, but the 4 step is off, sitting TUMA waiting for a PL decision.
The systems get a lot closer as far as exposure goes after the 3rd hit, but when that 3rd hit comes could be drastically different. MPs $204 has $452 of exposure and has collected $112, and the 4S has $440 of exposure and has collected $140, but remember those first 2 hits are harder to get, and by the time their is a PL decision, and the 4S gets to the 3rd hit, the $204 could be on its 20th or more hit and be pressed to the moon. MPs system is built to make a some money on a short hand and a lot of money on a long hand, whereas the 4S is geared to get your money off the table, excelling at the short to medium hand.
Would the 4S work on Randies? I doubt it. It might make a good option for group shoots with other DIs.
So, LuxLogs, in answer to your question why $220? $220 is easy for me and the dealers to figure out, it pays $70, and gets off to a fast start, or smaller loss if you only get 1 hit. After the first step, the regression is very slow, and while it makes some money, there will be lots of "regressers remorse" on a long hand, as those long hands are where MPs $204 really tallys up huge winners.
It should be noted that I haven't wargamed this yet, so its all theoretical at this point. I anticipate that there will be some changes, and hopefully some suggestions from you and other board members.
Do I ever gamble out of my area code? Not until I have a nice trip stake together. That being said, my shot is showing signs of consistancy lately.....
Wanna practice on Thursday night?
MPs $204 exposes you to a cumulative total of $408 exposure on the first two hits with a guaranteed, racked profit of $53, after 2 hits. The 4 step exposes you to $330 exposure with a racked (but not guaranteed) profit of $105 on 2 hits. Profit is not guaranteed till there's a PL decision. If the shooter 7s out, you made $105. If his hand continues, then you are back up, risking $110 to get your 3rd hit. If you get it, you have a racked profit of $140 and a guaranteed profit of $74, which could grow to a max of $231. If you don't get the 3rd hit, you lose $5.
On balance, you will get 2 hits faster with MPs across bet, vs the 4 steps (4S) inside bets. The 4S will have greater cumulative 7 exposure before the first 2 hits, but less exposure after the first 2 hits Better math dudes than me can figure it out the exact amount. MP, I'm guessing you took a look at something like this when you were formulating your $204 across, yes?
After the second hit, if the shooter 7s out, the 4S has made $105 net and pulled everything down, like the little piggy in the house made of bricks. The $204 has netted $54 and is still working with $44 exposure inside. Here's where the $204 can still make a lot of money, but the 4 step is off, sitting TUMA waiting for a PL decision.
The systems get a lot closer as far as exposure goes after the 3rd hit, but when that 3rd hit comes could be drastically different. MPs $204 has $452 of exposure and has collected $112, and the 4S has $440 of exposure and has collected $140, but remember those first 2 hits are harder to get, and by the time their is a PL decision, and the 4S gets to the 3rd hit, the $204 could be on its 20th or more hit and be pressed to the moon. MPs system is built to make a some money on a short hand and a lot of money on a long hand, whereas the 4S is geared to get your money off the table, excelling at the short to medium hand.
Would the 4S work on Randies? I doubt it. It might make a good option for group shoots with other DIs.
So, LuxLogs, in answer to your question why $220? $220 is easy for me and the dealers to figure out, it pays $70, and gets off to a fast start, or smaller loss if you only get 1 hit. After the first step, the regression is very slow, and while it makes some money, there will be lots of "regressers remorse" on a long hand, as those long hands are where MPs $204 really tallys up huge winners.
It should be noted that I haven't wargamed this yet, so its all theoretical at this point. I anticipate that there will be some changes, and hopefully some suggestions from you and other board members.
Do I ever gamble out of my area code? Not until I have a nice trip stake together. That being said, my shot is showing signs of consistancy lately.....
Wanna practice on Thursday night?
Last edited by Americraps on Sat Feb 21, 2015 3:41 pm, edited 5 times in total.
See it in your mind FIRST...Then do it!
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luxlogs
Re: 4 Step Regression
Thurs night is Strategy Advanced Research Group. Couple of smart guys on there, I mean Really Smart.
Like you know who, met him last week in Ohio. Only 300+ miles out of my area code.
Like you know who, met him last week in Ohio. Only 300+ miles out of my area code.
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Americraps
- Posts: 1101
- Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:42 pm
- Location: Elgin, IL
Re: 4 Step Regression
LL- I edited my response to your question avbove. How about Tues Night instead?
See it in your mind FIRST...Then do it!
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Jazzycat
Re: 4 Step Regression
Hi Americraps,
Thanks for sharing your 4S strategy with the group.
Here's a derivation of your 4S regression for your consumption and comments. It uses wagers comparable to the 4S but deployed in the Iron Cross (IC) configuration:
Hand Toss Wager ($) Win($) Summation of wins ($)
1 1 205 IC 35 [possible 70] 35
1 2 122 IC 20 [possible 40] 55
2 1 122 IC 20 75
2 2 61 IC 10 [possible 20] 85
2 3 61 IC 10 95
3 1 61 IC 10 105
3 2 41 IC 7 [possible 14] 112
3 3 41 IC 7 119
My comments:
- The big difference is that the win summation for the IC regression play is about half of the 4S. It may be higher if 2s or 12s are rolled. Also, the net wins for number 5, 6 & 8 are one or two dollars higher for the 61 and 122 IC respectively. In my data above I've listed the lowest dollar outcomes for wins possible.
- The maximum tosses for the IC play is eight (every non-seven toss wins). Depending on shooting accuracy the 4S could be as little as eight tosses or it may be more. This roughly means that the sevens exposure for the IC is less than or equal to the 4S but not more (not taking into consideration that the wagers are close by not the same).
- As it's presented above, the IC play would have to be on a $5 table to accommodate the '41 IC' wagers. You would need a no greater than $10 (min) table for the '61 IC' wagers. Of course wagers could be adjusted if needed.
Here is a summary of Iron Cross Wagers I used:
IC 5 6 8 Field
205 50 60 60 35
122 30 36 36 20
61 15 18 18 10
41 10 12 12 7
Thanks for sharing your 4S strategy with the group.
Here's a derivation of your 4S regression for your consumption and comments. It uses wagers comparable to the 4S but deployed in the Iron Cross (IC) configuration:
Hand Toss Wager ($) Win($) Summation of wins ($)
1 1 205 IC 35 [possible 70] 35
1 2 122 IC 20 [possible 40] 55
2 1 122 IC 20 75
2 2 61 IC 10 [possible 20] 85
2 3 61 IC 10 95
3 1 61 IC 10 105
3 2 41 IC 7 [possible 14] 112
3 3 41 IC 7 119
My comments:
- The big difference is that the win summation for the IC regression play is about half of the 4S. It may be higher if 2s or 12s are rolled. Also, the net wins for number 5, 6 & 8 are one or two dollars higher for the 61 and 122 IC respectively. In my data above I've listed the lowest dollar outcomes for wins possible.
- The maximum tosses for the IC play is eight (every non-seven toss wins). Depending on shooting accuracy the 4S could be as little as eight tosses or it may be more. This roughly means that the sevens exposure for the IC is less than or equal to the 4S but not more (not taking into consideration that the wagers are close by not the same).
- As it's presented above, the IC play would have to be on a $5 table to accommodate the '41 IC' wagers. You would need a no greater than $10 (min) table for the '61 IC' wagers. Of course wagers could be adjusted if needed.
Here is a summary of Iron Cross Wagers I used:
IC 5 6 8 Field
205 50 60 60 35
122 30 36 36 20
61 15 18 18 10
41 10 12 12 7
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luxlogs
Re: 4 Step Regression
Tuesday will be Great. Looking forward to wargameing both systems. Beside my shot has really sucked lately, ever since I started loading up on odds behind the line.
Go Figure
Go Figure
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Americraps
- Posts: 1101
- Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:42 pm
- Location: Elgin, IL
Re: 4 Step Regression
Hi Jazzy- I like that it gets the money off the table ASAP. Would that be worth one more hit per level?
See it in your mind FIRST...Then do it!