How would you play the best game in town?

[SHOOTITALL]

In Albuquerque, there is a nice table that is probably the best game in the U.S. As I remember, the four and ten place bets payed as buy bets: ie, a $5 place bet paid $10 bucks rather than the $9 we are use to. Next, the field paid triple on both the two and twelve. Again, no vig there. I believe the props on the 30:1 was $33 for $1, making an extra buck on those long shots. I do not remember what hop bets paid as I seldom play them. With those parameters, what would be your strategy? An iron cross? Play the four and ten only? Play a progression on the four and ten? Play the field with a progression?
Those more computer literate might run some some different scenarios on win craps stuff. However, I am guessing that even with these bets with no vig, the results will not differ much. I am believing that even with these great player advantages, this table still cannot be beat by a chicken feeder. Your opinion counts and the math is a bonus.
I have been noodling on this for a while but haven't made up my mind. sia

[Mad Professor]

You are correct, SIA.

'No house-edge' does not necessarily translate into "player-advantage".

There's no question that the triple-pay 2 & 12 on the Field, thus nullifying the house-advantage (HA) is a 'fairer' wager; however for the random-outcome bettor, he's is still not playing with a positive-edge (but merely trading dollars back-and-forth with the house on a perpetual-but-no-happy-ending circle-jerk, so to speak.

Likewise with the No-Vig 4 & 10 Buy-bets. The house doesn't have an edge over them, but neither does the random-betting player.

Only the combined use of de-randomized outcomes and focused-on-advantage wagers; does the game take on positive-expectation possibilities.



MP

[DeadCat]

LOL. Yeah, this gets back to Heavy's observation about 100X Odds, that mostly they just entice gamblers to over-bet their bankrolls and let variance bust them out. The same thing probably holds true in the no-vig table bets.

In fact, I was going to say that most gamblers I have seen would go broke getting paid even money on a coin toss, but I think I could re-vamp that to getting paid 6-5 (in their favor) and they would still go broke.


-DC

[acpa]

Shoot it all.

31for and 30 to 1 are the same.

Noah

[heavy]

Actually, this is a very good question and one we should really get into in more depth - particularly from a DI point of view. Let me ask you this. What single bet on a traditional game to you have the greatest advantage on assuming you have some margin of control over the dice? Well, for ONE ROLL of the dice - the Come Out roll - EVERY player has positive EV - even the randies. That's because there are eight ways to win on the Come Out versus four ways to lose. The odds for the Pass Line bettor are 2 - 1 in your favor on the Come Out roll. So to my way of thinking you really need to have a Pass Line bet on this game. Maybe. You could shoot from the Don'ts. You are at a disadvantage on that Come Out roll when shooting from the Don'ts. But once the point is established you have an advantage over every box number - while Pass Line bettors have a disadvantage on every bet on the layout. The exception - in this game - would be the free Buy OR free Lay bets on the four and ten. You have to take that into consideration. The OTHER bet where DI's should have an advantage is the Free Odds bet. Doesn't matter whether you are laying or taking odds - if you are setting the dice and tossing for the correct number based on your bet - you should have an advantage on the free odds. Last of all, the Field Bet. Now this one is interesting because you effectively have an even money bet with no house advantage if you're a randy. Again, if you are an advantage player then you should have positive EV on that bet.

Now let's think about Compounding Wins. I'll assume you're making a Pass Line bet and have buy bets on the Four and Ten (I'm not sure this is the way to go but work with me on it) PLUS an equivalent bet in the Field. We'll say we have $25 each on the four and ten and $25 in the Field plus a $5 Pass Line bet with $25 odds. Why not? You SHOULD have an advantage on every one of those bets with the possible exception of the $5 Line Bet, and your disadvantage on that number will be very small. Let's say you toss a four. You get paid $50 for the buy bet plus $25 for the Field bet - a $75 win on that number. Whew. You've just paid for all of the action on the table except for that $5 flat bet. Why? Because you got paid TWICE on the four - and that's what I'm referring to when I mention Compound Wins. Now, hopefully your POINT is the five, six, or eight. Why? Because you're not going to cover those numbers against the potential Field losers. You're going to win a total of $75 if the 2, 4, 10, or 12 roll. You'll win $25 on othe 3, 9, and 11. I think life is pretty good at this point IF you're using a dice set that you've verified will kick off a lot of outside and extreme outside numbers.

Another option that might work better? Based on the fact that I'd probably use the Straight Sixes as my dice set of choice for the entire hand, I'd seriously consider shooting from the Don'ts. $10 DP with $60 Lay would work. Free Buy bets on the Four and Ten - $25 in the Field. Rock 'n roll.

Now, what would I do if I felt my toss was on and I wanted to maximize ROI? I would POWER PRESS my first his on the Four or Ten. Remember, I'll have $25 each on the Four and Ten plus the $25 in the Field. That's a total $75 win on the first hit ont he Four or Ten - which means I'll hand $75 to the dealer and say "Make my Four look like $100." Now let's see if we can toss another Four.

Any other thoughts? Man, there are a ton of ways to go with this thing but I think we can drill down to one or two that would kick ass on this game.

[SHOOTITALL]

acpa: I made an error. Pays 33 for 1. Looked at their basic craps video and there is a shot of the props. The yo and 3 craps is 17 for1. Again since I seldom play them, I was going from a 2 year old memory. Sorry for the error.

This is getting fun. I'll get to how I will play this one later on the randies. If we are going to be at the table and it will be 45 or 60 minutes between turns, we will probably be tossing out a few bets. Now MP is certainly correct except when the wheels fall off. You have the advantage of your DI tossing but, on your turn you go PSO for whatever reason, maybe Thor hammered you or whatever. Are you going to wait another 45-60 minutes and possibly fall in the crapper again?
O.K. ignoring some of the math, could we for instance, place the four and lay the ten? Could we place a progression on the four and ten something like 5-7-10-15? With the Midnight and snake eyes paying good, run a progression there. BUT
the yo and three craps pays better. Noodle it out.
The real question, hidden in the background noise is can you find a way to play on the best table in the u.s. that will not get you killed? Is there any system worth its salt for this table? Inquiring minds and all that. sia

[Golfer]

On the comeouts I would use the straight 6's and hop my ass off with a world, hi-low and the reds. PArlay the 1st hit and press the rest.

After a point is set I go long on the 4 and 10 with a mini-v, or some suitable variant. The possible use of a Field Harvest during the point cycle would probably make sense. Press the 4 and 10 and work in some parlay on the field, especially with the 2 or 12 hitting.

When do we leave for NM?


Golfer

[heavy]

I'm reluctant to even talk about how great the games are in Albuquerque. I can envision the crowds descending on the tables and ruining it for all of us. Then again - maybe not. I know last time we had a group get together out there we had a bit of negative reaction from the casino - although I think it was in reaction to a couple of guys going way over the top getting in the casino's face. Nevertheless, I'm of the opinion that we need to havae another reunion deal out there some day. There is, in fact, a dealer school in Albuquerque these days. I have not chatted with anyone about renting the place, but it is on my list of things to do.

[soxfan]

Wow, gettin paid treble on the 2 and 12 on thfield would be sweet. What are the min and max bets for that table, hey hey?

In Albuquerque, there is a nice table that is probably the best game in the U.S. As I remember, the four and ten place bets payed as buy bets: ie, a $5 place bet paid $10 bucks rather than the $9 we are use to. Next, the field paid triple on both the two and twelve. Again, no vig there. I believe the props on the 30:1 was $33 for $1, making an extra buck on those long shots. I do not remember what hop bets paid as I seldom play them. With those parameters, what would be your strategy? An iron cross? Play the four and ten only? Play a progression on the four and ten? Play the field with a progression?
Those more computer literate might run some some different scenarios on win craps stuff. However, I am guessing that even with these bets with no vig, the results will not differ much. I am believing that even with these great player advantages, this table still cannot be beat by a chicken feeder. Your opinion counts and the math is a bonus.
I have been noodling on this for a while but haven't made up my mind. sia

[Mad Professor]

When you are considering which positive-edged bets deserve the most betting-weight; you also have to consider how frequently they are decided.

That is, the higher your edge, and the more frequently a positive-advantaged bet gets decided on a win-or-lose basis; then the more profit you will make overall.

So let's say that you have a 5% edge/wager over the Buy-4 and a 3% edge/wager over the Field-bet.

~We know that the 4 will be decided one way or the other, on average, about once-every-four rolls.

~We also know that the Field will be decided one way or the other, on every roll of the dice.

Now, given that each of those two wagers will have their own built-in volatility, but your overall positive-expectation edge is ever-present (and also assuming that you have an adequate bankroll to justify your wager-sizes on each); WHICH wager do you think deserves the most betting-weight?



MP

[DeadCat]

When you are considering which positive-edged bets deserve the most betting-weight; you also have to consider how frequently they are decided.

That is, the higher your edge, and the more frequently a positive-advantaged bet gets decided on a win-or-lose basis; then the more profit you will make overall.

So let's say that you have a 5% edge/wager over the Buy-4 and a 3% edge/wager over the Field-bet.

~We know that the 4 will be decided one way or the other, on average, about once-every-four rolls.

~We also know that the Field will be decided one way or the other, on every roll of the dice.

Now, given that each of those two wagers will have their own built-in volatility, but your overall positive-expectation edge is ever-present (and also assuming that you have an adequate bankroll to justify your wager-sizes on each); WHICH wager do you think deserves the most betting-weight?

OK. I just woke up so I should not be doing maths but I'll risk looking stupid.

If you have a 5% advantage per decision on a bet that is (on average) decided every 4 rolls and a 3% advantage on a bet that will be decided every roll that means:

In 4 rolls you will win (on average) $5 for every $100 bet on the Buy 4 and 4 X $3 or $12 for every $100 bet on the Field, right? In other words, 4 rolls will show 1 decision for the 4 and 4 decisions for the Field.

While the win per decision is higher on the Buy bets, the sheer number of decisions of the Field bet will make them better earners. Naturally this assumes that you have the bank to withstand the inherent volatility of either bet.

Right?

-DC

[Mad Professor]

That is correct, DC.

When you have a validated in-casino advantage over a given wager; then you WANT it to be 'decided' as often as possible.

That's where the money is.

...and as an aside; the more you try to 'control' volatility (by dampening it through hedges, or with started-too-low bet-values that you try to press to the moon); the lower your overall net-earnings will be.



MP

[DeadCat]

My post was not "advice" but simply an answer to a "perfect world" type question with the "real world" reminder of volatility and bankroll.

I've often said that to be successful at DI as an AP, you have to turn the tables (so to speak) on the casino. The casino does think of these things in "big picture" ways and so should we. The math is the math regardless of bankroll and volatility only matters when you don't have sufficient bankroll to withstand it.

-DC


PS. The craps part of my own "Las Vegas Story"worked out just fine, thank you. As tempting as it may be I won't explain my private life and decisions I made on a message board.

[Americraps]

Since there are 16 field paying combinations and 14 non field paying combinations (not including the 6 seven combos) I would put $30 on 6 and 8, $25 on 5 and the field, and $5 on the 4, 9,10. Total layout of $125 plus pass line. I would be looking to bump up the 5,6,8 from the profits of an early 2 or 12 hit. In the absence of that, once the roll is profitable, I would start pressing the non fields with a portion of my first few in the money hits, regardless of what number actualy hits. Net Payouts are
2 or 12= $75
4,10= $35
5,6,8= $10
3,11= $25
9= $32
I would be using a x6 set or whatever set that would be geared towards producing lots of outside numbers and field pays, hopefully 2s and 12s. I'm not crazy about the small payout on the 5,6,and 8, but the generous field bet payoffs beg for a field-centric strategy, and I'd like to keep my 7 exposure as small as possible. Once the 5,6,8 get built to where the payout could justify pressing on their own, I would stop diverting money to them and press whatever hits. I have wargamed something close to this strategy and the hi profit hands are usually going to come from repeating outside numbers.

[heavy]

Well, here's the deal IMHO. If there's no vig on the four and ten then it's a bet with no house edge. Taking DI out of the picture, over the long run you're going to end up dead even at that game. That is assuming you don't have the common sense to use some loss limits, win goals, and money management. How much bankroll is enough for that? Depends on how big you want to bet, I suppose.

Now on to the Field bet on that layout. If, after you total up the winning ways versus the losing ways and factor in the triple on the 2 and the 12 and it does, indeed, come out to a true even money bet with no house edge - the same applies as above.

So how does the casino stay in business with this game - especially when you factor in there there are a LOT of DI's in the Albuquerque market?

Well, they're obviously not making a killing on bets where they have no advantage. I have said for years that the casinos make MUCH more money off place bets on the six and eight than they do on any other bet on the layout. Why? Because they have a 1.51% edge on that bet and damn near every player who steps up to the table bets the six and eight.

Part two of how they're making a killing on craps in the Albuquerque casino? There's a certain group of Albuquerque players love to buy in for $20 - $50, then stand at the table and play nothing but prop bets.

As to there being no such thing as an advantage player at craps - Rick and I will have to agree to disagree. Not because I teach classes in dice influencing - but because through those classes I've had the opportunity to play with some guys whose names I won't mention here because they're making stupid money at the casinos and prefer to keep it quiet. (Yeah, that's why some of these guys rarely post anymore and never post trip reports. They don't want anyone to know where they've been or what they've been up to.) I know some will say that it is "convenient" for me not to have to mention names. Unfortunately, that's just how it is.

[DeadCat]

DeadCat I only have one question for you, what do you consider a sufficient bankroll to withstand the volatility of the game?

As with just about everything else; It depends.

Here's an article on BJ21 that breaks it down. One caution, it assumes that you have an edge.

http://bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/riskofruin.shtml

Knock yourself out.


-DC

[Blackcloud]

UNHH!!Him stanford wrong; aka John Ferguson

[Americraps]

Superrick- I thought we were talking about how to play the best game in town, how would you bet and play this game?

[Mad Professor]

I have a feeling that your question didn't fit into his agenda, Americraps.


MP

[Americraps]

Well, nothing wrong with a tight agenda, I prefer them that way, actually. I like the loose ones too.