What is your "Qualified shooter" method.

[mycoalsmith]

I'm new here. Have been playing Craps for the last 8 months or so - and "evolving" as a player.

My next "evolving" includes a way to try to "qualify" a shooter. In the past, I've watched people throw and based on what I see, I bet either the Don't or the Pass. Usually anyone who seemed to "set" the dice, I played the Pass. But I've had "so/so" results.
I recently read about the 5 count - where you wait for a person to set the point and after 5 rolls (including the come out roll) then you place bets. This is supposedly to bypass the shooters who 7 out early and hopefully you are left with someone who has a long roll.
My previous method of seeing if someone actually set the dice just didn't work out, as several shooters who did set the dice would 7 out quickly, while the person who just threw them (and I thought wouldn't get anywhere) won the 6 point firebet!

So, I'm interested in hearing how you "qualify" a shooter - whether it's to decide to play Pass or Don't OR when to start placing bets.

[Agame]

Your method is as good as any.
I'm probably still guilty of doing the same thing (jumping in when I see a setter) but the best thing to do is to wait your turn with the dice and make (modest) magic happen.

If most shooters 7-out within 5 to 7 rolls, waiting for a 5-count is counter intuitive, as you would be getting in at the end of the roll's life (statistically speaking).

The 5-count doesn't really leave you with someone who's going to have a long roll either, no matter if they did manage to throw 5 numbers already. The next toss could be a 7.

Different sessions produce different results and an individual's experience is never going to mimic what the casino sees in the long run from a multitude of players. The losses are a no brainer, as it is a negative expectation game, but the distribution of losing bets will vary from person to person.

So you could go right in and bet 6&8, then collect two hits total and down.
Wait for the next shooter, repeat the process and only start pressing and spreading out after you're ahead and with a profit locked in. That could work one day and not at all the next day.

But others could have a different opinion. I hope someone says something more helpful.

Qualifying shooters is BS. A person's good hand just now doesn't guarantee another good hand next turn, or next day, or next week. Just ask dice influencers...
I think it's all a matter of knowing your risk tolerance and hoping the variance is in your favor.
Which sometimes it actually is!!

[heavy]

I wrote pretty extensively (as did others on the forum) at this link: viewtopic.php?f=4&t=902&hilit=charting+players

I do believe in charting table trends and shooters. I realize the dice have no memory - but they do have a history and history has a way of repeating itself. You'll find many of my "indicators" on that thread. I've also taken to covering this topic in more detail in the seminars. Some of my "indicators" sound a little far out - until you observe them in action at the table. Then they'll make you say "hmmmmm."

[Jeff40]

I ussally just bet the min on 6 and 8, If I feel need to bet on bottom feeders

[Maddog]

It is funny how just about everyone "sets" the dice these days. I think it has gotten to the point of being just another of the Craps Player superstitions. Or perhaps it has gotten to the "Chicken-Soup" analogy of it-may-not-work-but-it-can't-hurt so why not try it.

Someone setting the dice does not inspire me. Instead it is the shooters entire routine that I watch for qualification. Does he manage a consistent stance, does she utilize a consistent set-grip-toss routine, are his tosses smooth and targeted, does she appear to be hitting a consistent landing spot. Also, attitude plays a big part for me. Is the shooter in good spirits, generally pleasant and polite, is the shooter calm and collected and at least putting on an appearance of being comfortable and knowledgeable of the game. When I see all of this behavior, that is when I start to take notice of the particular shooter and start tracking for trends in his/her shooting results. The act of "setting" the dice peaks my interest initially, but if the shooter does not manifest the rest of the DI traits, then that is as far as my interest carries.

Other then that, if I want some action then I will generally either play a simple DP game, or a simple Place game depending on the feel of the table, but it really has nothing to do with Qualifying shooters. Other then the above, everyone else is simply another random player who might get lucky (positive variance) or unlucky (positive variance for the Don't player).

[Knick111]

greetings mycoalsmith.

my friend, you can't go wrong if you listen to snakeeyes and heavy. JAIME.

[KnowNothing]

http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacie ... llacy.html

X has happened.
X departs from what is expected to occur on average or over the long term.
Therefore, X will come to an end soon.

I'm looking forward to the intuitive theory conversations with many from this community in April


I do not bet on random rollers, except when needing to participate in order to shoot or when I feel I need to compensate for heat & provide some cover. It's not much cover, as nickel betting -> $204 across is quite the range!

My RR bet strategies...

1. DC's w/odds after 2 points have been made (after 3rd come out).

2. Nickel table field Martingaling where the 12 pays triple. I have never failed with this as I am properly bankrolled when attempting. The most I've had to risk to win my $5 bet is $80.

The 5 count is a laugh to me, seen so many RR's PSO after the majority of the table puts up their money. My questions on the 5 count is... Why must the 5th qualifying number be a point number & not 2-4? Why can they be a 'crap'? The strategy limits your gambling exposure, but if that is your goal; why not limit your RR exposure as much as possible? Am more inclined to place the 6/8 from the start for a few rolls then come down.


KN's gambling foundation... lose on yourself.

You can't recover from a bad start to a session if you waste your bankroll gambling.

From 1 DI novice to another.

[heavy]

I think everybody here is familiar with gambler's fallacy. I don't necessarily believe that "X" is going to happen because "Y" happened (okay, I'll still turn my bets off based on certain observations at the table). But I do believe in history - and I believe history has a way of repeating itself. The dice don't have a memory - but they do have a history. That history is (IMHO) linked to each individual shooter. Watch shooters long enough and you'll discover some of them have consistently good hands while others are simply awful. Bet on the good ones. Bet against the awful ones. Maybe play some sort of hybrid strategy with the ones who fall in between.

[KnowNothing]

Suppose I was sharing with the thread originator, inquiring from the novice side of things. I wish someone had shared fallacies with me earlier in life. Drawbacks of being a bastard I suppose

For me, I have goals in this quest & I take the venture beyond serious. Logic, math, rational theory, science, physics... these are key fundamental foundations. Without this, I would have never touched the dice. My bankroll does not permit gambling on RR's, learning the craft is the priority.

4 weeks ago during our return from Gary to Chicago, my bird said "I role 4's on my come out the majority of the time". I scoffed, "ha, you roll 4's using the 7 set... my ass". She toyed with our pair of bones we carry in the car, inquiring about pitch & yaw. "It's true, I know those hop bets are shit H/E, but I'm wagering $3 going forward." She rolled 4's during her come out 25%-33% over the next 3 sessions. She let me know about it!

History is powerful, only a fool would discount it.

On a similar topic, roulette dealers worth monitoring? Watching someone hit a quarter of the wheel 75% of the time did not seem random. Hitting 5 single zero's from 15 rolls did not seem random. I made note, she did as suggested & took advantage after the 2nd zero on the fourth roll. Quick $50 while we waited for our table positions to open!

[acpa]

Initially come out throw is a pass line winner or a point is established and made,

Got it from The Dice Doctor.

Noah

[House of Orange]

Never mind.

[Knick111]

GOOD MORNING HEAVY.

can you please translate to--- house of orange--- WHAT acpa means when he says,

INITIALLY COME OUT THROW IS A PASS LINE WINNER or A POINT IS ETAABLISHED AND MADE.

jaime. from puerto rico.

P.S. acpa--- good morning, can you tell us what you meant.

[acpa]

Put in simple terms. First throw is a seven or eleven. "Pass line winner".

or first throw is a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10. What ever that first number is, is repeated before a 7 is the throw. "point established and made"


Noah

[Michael]

Do you qualify a shooter each time he gets the dice or once per session?

[acpa]

Each time.

Noah

[heavy]

I'm glad we got that straight.

[bobthetree]

Me too, I have read about qualifying shooters so many times and about half the time that question was popping up in the back of my mind. I'm going to try to make a mental note to put (each time) next to qualified shooter material if I post any in the future. I should have asked earlier.

[mycoalsmith]

Since initially posting this thread, I have been using the 5 count method.

It has saved me quite a few bucks as it's amazing how many people 7 out on either the 4th roll, or the 5th roll!

The only "problem" I came across is with the Firebet. It seems at least in Pittsburgh, at The Rivers or The Meadows, in order to bet the Firebet, you have to also either place a Pass Line or Don't. You can't get onto a Firebet once the point has already been established, so you have to bet something to get involved. I watched 3 different people get a 4 point Firebet, and I wasn't included.

I've come to a solution around it though. Money on the Firebet and money on Passline. Usually if the shooter rolls a 7 or 11, I'll collect my win and let my Passline ride. If a Craps number comes up and takes my Passline bet, I usually don't replace it. Once the Firebet has been collected from your number and is sitting in the field, the casino doesn't care if you continue to play or not.

So, after the 3 4-point misses, I was making sure I was involved with the Firebet. (I know, I know, it's a longshot, but when you win, it SURE IS exciting!)

My last 2 Crap betting trips - I started with $150.00. When I returned after 2 trips, I had made a profit of $440.00.

I realize it won't work everytime, but the 5 count sure seems to help.

[House of Orange]

We know the firebet has a house edge of 20-25%. Replacing Big Red as the worst bet on the table. So why should you worry about it, especially on random rollers?