The "Do Nots" Have it

[heavy]

A while back a friend of mine told me about a session where he witnessed fourteen consecutive seven-outs on a table. During that time there were no Come Out naturals. The table was as cold as the Titanic.

My friend, being a conservative Don’t player, runs a conservative flat bet and free odds progression that produces nice wins in such situations. Of course, guys like me tend to let the greed factor get in the way of making the most of those kinds of situations. I’m always looking for something a tad more aggressive to take advantage of such streaks, so after hearing this tale I played around with the numbers and came up with a free-odds progression I've dubbed The Ice Breaker.

The Ice Breaker strategy is relatively simple in that it utilizes just two bets - the Don't Pass and Free Odds. It is designed to be played in casinos that offer a minimum of 20X odds. Since this should be dubbed a "system" type play it has to have rules. Here they are:

1. Always begin with a table-minimum Don't Pass wager.
2. Betting progressions are all free-odds progressions.
3. Do not increase the size of the Don't Pass (flat) wager until you hit table maximum with your free odds bet.
4. The first come-out natural a shooter tosses is always ignored. If the shooter tosses two come out naturals - sit out the rest of this shooter's hand. Don't let the same shooter beat you three times on the come-out.
5. On any loss, regardless of what level you’ve reached, regress to the first bet level and start the progression over.
6. Minimum session bankroll requirement is $1200 based on a $5-20X odds game.
7. You MUST keep track of exactly where you stand in the progression as well as in the win/loss column at all times.
8. You MUST walk if you lose 50% of your session bankroll.

Why, you may ask, do we have such rules? Because the guy who put this play together (me) thought we needed them. Make up your own rules if you want to. I'm just trying to save you a little time here.

Since we don't know what numbers we're laying odds against, we can't really plug dollars into the calculation. However, you can assume that the first Don't Pass bet is a table minimum $5 wager. Here's what the Casino Busters progression would look like based on the Professor's fourteen consecutive seven-outs:

Initial Bet - $5 Don't Pass

First bet - $5 Don't Pass plus 3X odds
Second bet - press to 6X odds
Third bet - same bet at 6X odds
Fourth bet - press to 10X odds
Fifth bet - press to 15X odds
Sixth bet - same bet - 15X odds
Seventh bet - press to at 20X odds

Increase Don't Pass bet to $10

Eighth bet - $10 Don't Pass plus 15X odds
Ninth bet - press to 20X odds

Increase Don't Pass bet to $15

Tenth bet - $15 Don't Pass plus 20X odds

Increase Don't Pass bet to $20

Eleventh bet - $20 Don't Pass plus 20X odds
Twelfth bet - same bet at 20X odds

Increase Don't Pass bet to $25

Thirteenth bet - $25 Don't Pass plus 20X odds

Increase Don't Pass bet to $35
Fourteenth bet - $35 Don't Pass plus 20X odds

Should you reach the fourteenth bet and continue to win, flat bets with max odds would increase to $50, same bet, $75, same bet, $100, same bet, $125, same bet. Assuming the maximum bet is $2500 on this table, you will be at max bet after roll twenty. At that point, you would either stay at that level or add a Don't Come wager to the mix and run a second progression. On the other hand, if at any time you feel like you've had enough and your luck is running out - take down your free odds bet, wait for a decision on the flat bet, then color up and head out. Quitting when you are ahead is the only sure way to guarantee a win.

Fourteen consecutive Don't Pass decisions is insane - but these kinds of streaks happen all the time. Whynot take advantage of them?

[Kelph]

Heavy,

Just wondering why you don't run a progression laying against a number so any CO 7 would also be a winner? You didn't mention if there were any CO 7s.

The only reason not to is possibly thinking that a 10 or 4 could quickly kill a lay but a CO one would have to repeat to hurt you. Of course the odds of the number repeating are the same as it being thrown the first time. If it's the 5% just use the lay to protect the DP (thanks JP) and take it down if not needed. If the lay wins on the CO who complains about the 5%.

Other thought is that once you confirm you're on a real COLD trend maybe you start laying the 5 or 9 instead of the 4 or 10. Easier on the old BR.

Just saying.

Kelph

[heavy]

Good point, Kelph. Thanks.

[Golfer]

"Fourteen consecutive Don't Pass decisions is insane - but these kinds of streaks happen all the time."

It is what I dream of. Press 'em up.



Later

[Operator]

golfers got my vote again heh heh.

[Dylanfreake]

Damn, Operator . Where did you come from?

[Golfer]

Operator........How ya doing???????? Good to see ya.

Still local or are you getting back up to my neighborhood?

Still playing at Metropolis?

Golfer

[Operator]

Hi dylan freake and golfer.

Lots of thinks have changed like im getting better looking with age

Moved from paducah and bought a fixer up me house Its not so bad i quess kind of looking better ive been working on it since oct. Spend my one day off painting and repairing you know the drill.

went to tunica about 2 months ago boy have things changed down their. Talk about boring and no fun they have taken out all the fun machines to play no elvis :no slot poly : No need to return to that place again i did not play that much craps either .

I play at aztar evansville mostly now ok slots fair tables good crews pretty much fun trips to that casino.My casino trips are seldom now i go about every 3 or 4 months as time allows.

Im still long haul spend alot of time in houston of all places and norfolk . My post will be rare as i get home only on the weekend. Glad to see heavy has a board up again.

[Operator]

Oh and nope i havent played at metroplis in like 4 years said good bye to the met never to return. Theirs alot better casinos out their thats for sure.

[Golfer]

Evansville is ok. Good VP but tables are bouncy for my tastes. Good to hear you doing well, keep it between the lines like H says.


Golfer

[heavy]

For what its worth, I have played at Casino Aztar up there many times and I have never had a losing session. Maybe it's because I was always "on the clock" and had to get in, get ahead, and get gone. Whatever - I like the place a lot.

[heavy]

How about it, guys? What triggers you to switch to the dark side and vice versa? Do you have a favorite casino for Don't Play? What is YOUR approach to playing the dark side?

[SHOOTITALL]

Show me you are a shooter and I will go with you.

[mssthis1]

The South table at the joint in Altoona Iowa is a dark side dream table as long as you don't lose your patience during the rare long roll.

The North table by the cage is a better table but it is rarely open.

[heavy]

The South table at the joint in Altoona Iowa is a dark side dream table as long as you don't lose your patience during the rare long roll.

The North table by the cage is a better table but it is rarely open.

Unfortunately, the table is so bouncy the dice spend more time on the floor than on the table.

[mssthis1]

Hi Heavy: They installed different felt layouts on both tables that reduced the dice off the table to normal levels. There is just something about that South table. The only shot I've had any success with on that table is an overhand shot with absolutely no backspin landing right at the base of the backwall.

[flextimeLV]

Please modify for a $400 bankroll versus $1200. Thanks!

[heavy]

Take all be sizes - divide by three.

Seriously, I'd love to have time to rework every system on the forum for every size bankroll imaginable. Patrick did something similar with his Advanced Craps book, but John has a lot more time on his hands than I do. Of course, John would tell you to stay out of the casino until you'd built up a $1200 bankroll - then go play the strategy. LOL.

If someone else would like to take a shot at this have fun. It's end of month on a Friday and I'm in the car business. It is what it is.

[Crapsjunkie]

I really like this, Heavy. Starting with relatively small odds on the don’t and pressing fairly aggressively, more so than from the light side because you are the point favorite. Being the favorite on every point, those wins will invariably clump together. Five, six, eight, 10+ in a row can and will happen.

On a $10, 10x odds table, i utilize this odds pressing strategy, regardless of the point:

30/36/48/66/90/120/156/198/246/300/360 etc

[heavy]

I have not talked about it much here, but I have mentioned it over on the Heavy's Wrong Way Craps Group on Facebook. I have been working on a Hybrid Strategy that involves betting the Don't Pass combined with Place Betting, Don't Pass Bets, Don't Come Bets, and Lay Bets and Lay Odds at different levels. There is a beginner strategy, an intermediate strategy, and an advanced strategy in the complete package. The objective of the design was to tightly minimize losses while positioning the player for decent upside wins. We tested the strategies with three different SRR's at 7200 rolls, 72,000 rolls, and 720,000 rolls. We based our test results on skill levels of Random at 6.0. Average Influence at 8.0. Advanced Influence at 10.0. The strategy showed a slight loss with a large percentage of the time spent in the positive at 7200 rolls, positive results at 72,000 rolls, and very strong positive results at 720,000 rolls. Then we ran a simulated random 2 hour session consisting of 72 random rolls based on a 6.5 SRR or slightly influenced dice, 7.5 or average influenced dice, and 9.5 or strongly influenced dice. All three showed positive results at the end of 72 roll sessions. The Beginner strategy is very similar to the well known One Hit - Can't miss but it does have a couple of tweaks. The Intermediate strategy is also similar but has additional tweaks on top of the Beginner strategy's modifications. The Advanced strategy will largely be unrecognizable except for the beginning bets. It is fairly complex but is easy to run once you memorize the regressions, transitions, progressions and hedge moves. I'm in the process of putting the finishing touches on the strategy now, which includes putting together the tables and graphics that go with the strategy as well as the front and back cover pages. I'll be offering it for sale here in the next few weeks.

Meanwhile, after working about twelve hours last week I went to bed and couldn't sleep for thinking about different tweaks that might improve the strategy. Ultimately, I got up and put together a completely different strategy that I ran through AI and asked what we could do to improve it and make it lose less and win more. AI liked the strategy and made several suggestions. I incorporated all but one, which was a suggestion based on an error AI made in craps rules. I explained its error to it and made a couple of other suggestions, springboarding off the suggestions it had made. It came back with four or five alternate suggestions, some of which I used. I then bounced back with some more ideas. This process ran back and forth about seven times before we finally hit on a strategy that consistently came back with positive results after testing. Once I had the strategy finalized, I took it over to another AI platform and ran it through it and ask for its opinion. It loved the strategy and could find no fault with the logic of it. It only wanted to wordsmith it a bit and make it more readable. So, we did that and it's all done except for the creation of the tables and graphs to support the results. After I get the first strategy published and out, I'll get this second one done and out as well.

Pricing will be modest on theses. I'm not going to be like some of these guys who try to chare $999 or $1999 for a betting system. These will be well under $100. Odds are I'll offer some sort of two-fer deal when I get them both done. I'm extremely proud of the work I've done on these (with the help of AI). AI is great for not only back-testing this sort of thing. It also does a great job of writing up the how-to part of the strategy. Admittedly, I have to go back through the write-ups and put some of the language in plain english so everyone can understand it sometimes, but it's great having the framework there so all you have to do is hang meat on it.