Let's Build a DON'T Strategy from the Ground Up

[SteveO]

If you're going to grind it, then let's grind it.

Up 1 unit on a loss, down 1 unit on a win. Bet Don't Pass, and then one Don't Come with separate progressions on each. Pretty much you only bet on a shooter once, you either win both, win one lose one or lose both.

[KrapsNovice]

If you're going to grind it, then let's grind it.

Up 1 unit on a loss, down 1 unit on a win. Bet Don't Pass, and then one Don't Come with separate progressions on each. Pretty much you only bet on a shooter once, you either win both, win one lose one or lose both.

Been there, done that at baccarat many years ago. Before you know it you are in the hole and betting 19, 20, units going up and down a unit trying to get out of the hole. It's no fun when you get stuck with that game.

[wild child]

Heavy
.
There is great and generous input on this thread.....
My thoughts run toward this has contributed
a substantial amount
of information......

We seem in momentum to establish STRONG CONCEPTS
that
could underwrite substance to those who apply it
as
more than just another arrow to their quiver...
or a second string to their bow.....


just me saying
w c

[SteveO]

If you're going to grind it, then let's grind it.

Up 1 unit on a loss, down 1 unit on a win. Bet Don't Pass, and then one Don't Come with separate progressions on each. Pretty much you only bet on a shooter once, you either win both, win one lose one or lose both.

Been there, done that at baccarat many years ago. Before you know it you are in the hole and betting 19, 20, units going up and down a unit trying to get out of the hole. It's no fun when you get stuck with that game.

Well the times I have tried this have been at least mildly successful. Far from the holy grail but I would rather grind than lose.

[DanF]

Pass the comeout, lay the point for 30$, 10$ dc no odds. Don’t replace anything, wait for next shooter. 41$ stand to win 30ish...

[stratocasterman]

So...any consensus here yet?

[dork]

Lemme raise this thread from the dead.. I read the whole thread and there didn't seem to be a consensus, so I'd like to pose some questions.

1. Entry point into the game - how do you decide when to get on the Don'ts for your first bet?

I try to select who I think are random rollers and give them 6-8 rolls before I bet the DC.

2. What will be your first bet and why? Assume a $10 table minimum. Will you play a Don't Pass bet first, wait until a point is established then, at a predetermined entry point play a Don't Come bet? Will you just Lay against the point? Will you Lay some other number? I'd like to know your play and why you go that way.

I'll bet $15 against the 7s, $5 Yo and $1 Twelve and bet $100 DC. That way at least $59 is protected on an 11 and $80 is protected on any $7. A $1 Twelve saves the $20 if a 12 comes. The plan is to repeat the $21 Action if I win (and bet $200 DC if I won), and then do it again $21 Action with $400 DC. At least some of my initial $100 is saved and the most I'd lose is $126-163 of my "own" money if I lose at any time. (Yeah, I know it's "all" my money.)

3. What will be your second bet and why? Will you have more than one Don't wager up on a shooter per hand? Will you make continuous Don't Come wagers? In what denominations will you make your bets? Will you lay odds on your DP and DC bets? Will you simply Lay another number? Details as to when and why.

Sometimes (especially after the $200/$400 DC are established against the 5/9 or 4/10) I'll bet on OHCM numbers in the appropriate amounts.

4. What will be your course of action if you get knocked off of one bet? What if you are knocked off of two bets? Do you lay additional odds after getting knocked off the first one, chasing that losss? Do you take down odds on the second bet and just wait for a decision on the flat bet? Do you place the point as a hedge against getting knocked off of the first bet? Do you make another DC bet or Lay another number, chasing losses? You are at a fork in the road. Which fork do you take and why?

If I lose my Don't bet I come down on any OHCM Inside bets. Hypothetically, my losses would be $121-161 so I won't chase a lost $200-400 DC bet with the remainder of OHCM Place bets on a random roller.

5. Do you continue to play the Don'ts if you lose on the first shooter? Do you change your bet size or your betting strategy? At what point do your transition to the right side, if at all? At what point do you abandon this table in search of greener pastures? Do you continue full speed ahead untli you hit your loss limit? Where do you go next?

If I stretch my neck and win two OHCM bets I'll usually take them down and let the DC run to a decision UNLESS the shooter hits two 6/8s in three rolls. Then I'll see if he can hit one of them again in another 2 rolls and if he can I'll take down the DC and spread out to the 5/9 with half of my original Place 6 bet.

6. At what point do we call it a session. Loss limit? Win goal? Too many DI's on the table?

Loss limit is the end of the session; so is a "stall" after 3 or 4 hands (where I'm not winning more and I'm ahead).

From the ground-up, gents. And if you like a play someone has described please chime in and let us know. At the end of this thread I'd like to see us come up with a consensus Don't strategy that doesn't look like a camel. We might even call it the Committee System. Let's hear it.

I'll bet $15 on the HOP-7s, $5 Yo and $1 Twelve and bet $100 DC. That way at least $59 is protected on an 11 and $80 is protected on any $7. A $1 Twelve saves the $21 Action if a 12 comes. The plan is to repeat the $21 Action if I win (and bet $200 DC if I won), and then do it again $21 Action with $400 DC. At least some of my initial $100 is saved and the most I'd lose is $126-163 of my "own" money by the $400 stage. (Yeah, I know it's "all" my money.) I restated my scheme here so it's easy to reference because I don't understand this:

if you start having to hedge your DPs and DCs right from the off, the strategy is instantly flawed.

Ba-da-boom!

Every time you bet $10 on the Any Seven it's like throwing $1.78 in the trash.

Playing a Doey-Don't doubles the amount of juice you give up to the house.

Just play the largest DP or DC bet your bankroll and your sevens risk tolerance can accommodate and go from there. You'll save money over the long haul.

I understand that the $1.78 statistic is borne from actual churned data. The best alternative to my play that I've seen offered is to bet the table minimum on the DP (or DC) and after the Point is made, Lay Odds in the appropriate amount to protect the intended follow-up DC flat bet.

IF I wanna run a "Paroli-version" press and graduate a DC bet from $100-200-400 (as a "double or nothing" scheme) and the Point is 10 (or 4), the Lay Odds on the first Don't bet would be $800 to protect the $400 follow-up DC flat bet for one roll. IF I lose that first Don't bet with its' $800 Odds, I'm down past my loss limit AND if I'm lucky I can win eight hands on the Don'ts to recoup the next time I play. With my scheme, I've only lost $163.

I know that in the "long run" statistics will bear out the $1.78 loss for $10 per roll (and the vig against my $21 action REPEATEDLY must be ATROCIOUS $4 by my calculation)--but is it relevant in a short session? or is my fear of a bullfrog (that would kill my Don't bet and $800) overwhelming my betting logic?

(The only times I've ever dug myself a deep hole playing the Don't side is when I've run my Don'ts naked [without a hedge]--e.g., two successively lost naked $200 DCs runs me right up against my loss limit. "My way", I'd only be down $284 instead of $400. And yes, I can see the glaring error in my thinking--that $84--but when the bet gets to $400 DC, I wonder if the "$1.78 x2 vig" [for $21 Action] isn't worth it to get me to that bet.)

If YOU wanted to run a "double or nothing" bet with successive wins: $100 DC --> bet $200 Don't --> bet $400 Don't after successive wins, how would you do it (damn the juice)? just run them naked?

Thank you!

[heavy]

A Martingale (double or nothing) is one of the LAST things I'd do. Now, if you want to do Mad Professor's Short Leash, which is in MP's version, I believe a four step Grand Martingale, then knock yourself out. DarthNater will take it out FIVE steps. This is based on numbers I've posted here before that show the likelihood of a shooter hitting four, five, or six points back to back. It's almost nil when you get out to the fifth one. SO, you can (if you choose) eliminate that first step on the negative progression by simply not betting that first DP. Wait until the shooter has made his first pass before making your first DSP bet. That puts you one step closer to the Seven Out and a win. OR you could wait for a player to make TWO passes and THEN start making DC bets or whatever. Same reason. You're now TWO decisions closer to the Seven. Or you could wait . . . well, you could watch a shit load of Seven Outs happen while "qualifying" shooters . . . or "disqualifying" them. But you can improve your odds if you play smart. Naked bets at $400? I don't think so. Not me. How would I protect a $400 DC or DP bet? I'd hire a 6'8" muscle builder from Chicago and tell him there's $50 in it for him if he'll haul my fat ass out of the casino every time I even TRY to toss out a $400 DC or DP bet. But hey, that's just me.

[dork]

Thanks Heavy! I'm away from home and hate reading the tiny script on my phone. I gotta do some research when I get back on the 29th before I can reply. Thanks again.

Brian

[Rickhem]

I've been playing a kind of a dark side system, but it's more of a hedge than strictly dark. I play at the $25 level, but it can be scaled easily to whatever you want.

I start by betting a quarter on the DP, and then will add a Come for a quarter on the next two rolls. If nothing happens to resolve those bets by the fourth roll, I add a DC for another quarter. At that point, it's just stand there and watch the shooter toss.

The come out seven or eleven is a killer on that first roll. I've tried hedging by laying the four, but had a bad experience with that. I got singles so I could pay the $1 vig on my $50 lay bet, and it got hit four times in that one session. I only had one $1 chip, and realized that meant a $200 loss, so I just eat the loss on the seven or eleven now.

I limit myself to $100 per shooter, or four bets. If the shooter knocks a bet off, I'll replace it, and if a bet wins, like a two or three on the come out, or an eleven on a Come bet, I rack that and move on with the progression.

Using this system, a PSO is great, and even a seven on the third roll still makes profit. If I get a DP and two Come bets established, then put up the final bet, a DC, that is the most vulnerable time for a seven, and it loses $50.

Having run this a few times, it seems that short rolls are best for this strategy, and even long rolls work if the shooter hits on the Come bets. But a shooter making points, or hitting the DC before a seven, and it doesn't make money.

Most of the profit in this comes with the dark side bets, and the Come bets just help minimize losses on a longer hand. I have been buying in with $400, and playing until I get to $100 profit. Sometimes that happens fast, sometimes it's a grind. I'll play until my rack drops to less than half, then just play out what is already in play before quitting for that session.