Seven Steps to Smarter Don’t Play

Let’s start this article out with a little common sense explanation of something most players get wrong.  It’s the idea that they don’t like Laying the Odds or Laying Points on the Don’ts because “I don’t like risking more money to win less.”  For example, you’d Lay $41 against the four or ten to win $20.  But this same player will bet $44 inside on the right side in an effort to win $14 on the next toss of the dice – when a seven is more likely to roll than any one number he has a get on.  So what’s the smarter bet?  Risking $41 to win $20 or risking $44 to win $14?  Just think about that as we talk about Lay bets and Laying Odds in this article.

Here are Seven Steps to Smarter Don’t Play I recommend you consider adding to your Play Books if you are a Dark Sider or considering taking up playing the Don’ts.

  1. Getting past the Sheriff and the Deputy.  The seven or eleven rolling on the Come Out is the big fear for most Don’t players.  Getting knocked off that Don’t Pass bet is a killer.  But there are many ways to hedge that Don’t Pass bet.  Here are a few:
    1. Lay a number – e.g. $41 no four or no ten – for one roll to hedge against the seven.
    2. By-Pass the Come Out and play a Don’t Come instead, then make that your dominant Don’t wager.
  2. By-Pass the Come Out roll and simply Lay the point.  Let’s face it.  The right side only wins about one in three times once a point is established.  The Don’t win roughly two out of three times.  Pony up the vig and Lay the point.  If you lose one bet you can play a sensible negative progression through the next few hands or shooters until  you recoup.  Just don’t let a single shooter best you more than two times in a row.
  3. Let’s say you aren’t scared of the Come Out seven or eleven with a $25 Don’t Pass bet.  Play a $15  Don’t Pass bet and once it’s established make a $10 Don’t Come bet.  The $15 Don’t Pass bet hedges the $10 Don’t Come bet against the seven and guarantees you a $5 win on a second roll seven.  The Point Seven Out becomes your friend as you still lock u a win.  And if you end up with two Don’t bets established you’re in fat city.  Just sit back and wait for the seven.  If it shows up you win $25.  If you get knocked off of one of your bets by the shooter – go ahead and lay sufficient odds on the remaining bet to recoup the wager you lost plus a small profit.  If you lost both bets – you are through with that shooter for that trip around the table.  Take a break and wait for the next shooter.
  4. Play “Dirty Don’ts.”  This is a strategy I should trademark and sell as a system.  It’s simple but guaranteed to piss off every right side player at the table.  Buy in for a couple of hundred at the table and make a few random bets here and there.  Have three separate “bankrolls” in your pocket.  One with $250, one with $310, and one with $410.  If you’re a big player feel free to add a zero to those numbers.  On the smaller amounts – feel free to make it all in twenties and tens.  Sit back and watch the game, waiting for an “energy draining event.”  You know what these are.  Typically I look for an argument over a payout that delays the dice going out to the shooter, but most of the old “superstitions” will do the trick if they get in the shooter’s head.  Dice off the table, stick change, new money on the table, shooter interrupted by a spouse or girlfriend looking for slot money, cocktail server tapping the shooter, etc.  When you see one of these “delay of game” events in progress quickly pull the appropriate stack of money out of your pocket, throw it on the table and say “Laying the point for xxxx!”  If the point is six or eight Lay it for $250.  Five or nine go for $310.  Four or Ten go for $410.  This will stop the game while the box counts out every twenty and ten and yes, those ten crumpled ones for the camera, authorizes the dealer to cut out the chips and set up the bet, then drops the cash in the box.  Finally the shooter gets the dice.  You sit back and wait for the seven to roll next.  If the seven doesn’t show within three rolls – take the Lay bet down and wait for another opportunity.
  5. Play Both Sides Against the Middle.  Yeah, I’m talking about Shootitall’s One Hit – Can’t Miss strategy.  I like to start with $25 on the Don’t Pass.  Once the bet is established I Place the Six and Eight for $24 each.  One hit on either the Six or Eight pays $28, guaranteeing me a $3 win for the hand.  From that point on I can go same bet or press on whatever schedule I desire.  And at any point I wish I can take my bets down and wait for the next shooter.  All it takes is one hit on the Six or Eight to guarantee a win for the hand – and there are ten ways to roll a six or eight versus six ways to roll the seven.  Seems like a great deal to me.
  6. Load the Bases and look for the Home Run.  When the table is stone cold I’ll make a commitment to the Don’t’s and go full bore.  In a $10 game I’ll start out with a $15 Don’t Pass followed by two $10 Don’t Come bets.  Once I have three Don’t bets established I lay $30 odds on each of them.  Why $30 odds?  Because it’s an easy number to remember and it works for a correct payoff on every number.  And if I want to play at a higher level I simply double it to $60, or go to $90 or $120.  Multiples of $30 will always work for an odds bet on the Dark Side.  My goal here is to get three bets established and then to see the seven show and to win all three bets.  Statistically the likelihood of this is high.  While the seven rolls on AVERAGE every six rolls – the average hand is closer to nine rolls.  The MEAN number of rolls is a little over three rolls.  That’s why we see so many hands go point seven out or point point seven out.  And that’s why I like to Lay odds after the third roll.  While the odds of the seven showing are the same on every toss measured independently, cumulatively the window on the hand is closing and the seven is due.
  7. Window Shop the Carnival Bets.  Let’s face it.  There’s a reason why the casinos pay $1000 to $1 on Fire Bet wins and $175 – $1 on the All on the ATS.  Odds are the shooter is not going to make that last number.  So if you happen to walk by a table where the shooter only needs the nine to complete the All Tall Small – go ahead and toss out a $310 No Nine.  If all the shooter needs is to make that Six to hit the Fire Bet why not Lay the Six for $250.  Don’t want to risk that much?  Lay it for $25.  But don’t stand around and let opportunity pass you by.  The odds are very much in your favor on those bets.

So there you go.  Seven ways to approach Don’t play – including a couple that will likely make an enemy or two of other players at the table – despite the fact that you’re betting against the house, not the players.  So here’s a tip.  Ignore the comments.  Keep your head down and your mouth shut.  Let your chip rack do the talking.  See you on the Dark Side.