Recently, after one of our Axis Power Craps Forum members posted about an exceptionally long hand he’d tossed in the casino, a fellow board member and I started an off-forum discussion on pressing bets. I casually mentioned that if I had been at the table during that hand and the player had tossed his usual abundance of even numbers – I’d have been up around $5000 on the four and ten and $4200 on the six and eight. My correspondent replied that she was not that big of a bettor. I responded, “Neither am I, but it’s not that difficult to get there on a hand like that.”
Of course, there is a downside to pressing aggressively, and that’s the fact that most hands don’t stretch on for thirty or forty rolls. So there are some steps I think a low roller should step to guarantee a profit before going crazy with press moves. Foremost among them is the regression.
Let’s say you have a proven shooter that you have confidence enough in to start out with $110 even numbers. Here’s how I would approach it. And for this demonstration we’re going to handle the six and eight differently from the four and ten. Here’s how:
First hit on the four (it could just as easily be the ten) – drop $1 for the juice and lock up two green chips – AND tell the dealer to take down your $25 ten and stack it on the four. The DICE have decided that the four is the outside number you’re going to ride on so go with the dice. At this point your $50 four is essentially paid for. You have a couple of bucks vig at risk to win $100. I’ll take that any day. You COULD have left that $25 on the ten, but since the shooter is a DI I’m going to go with the idea that he’s going to toss another four before the ten shows. I’m looking for a streak. Now let’s assume it actually happens. Here’s your press schedule from there:
Second hit: $50 goes to $100 and you lock up $50.
Third hit: $100 goes to $200 and lock up $100.
Fourth hit: $200 goes to $400 and lock up $200.
Fifth hit: $400 goes to $800 and lock up $400.
Sixth hit: $800 goes to $1600 and lock up $800.
Seventh hit: $1600 goes to $3200 and lock up $1600.
Eighth hit: $3200 goes to $5000 and lock up $4400.
In all of these cases the “lock up” will be less the vig, so you’ll spend a few dollars along the way, but to keep the numbers simple I’m excluding the juice from the tally. You’ll have a $5000 bet on the Four up and working and you’ll have roughly $10,750 in the rack. It took eight hits on the four to get there. Do you think that could happen in a forty-five minute – thirty-six roll hand? Of course it could! But the important thing to remember is that after the second press you have almost $100 profit in the rack off this number alone. And I’ll tell you right off the bat – this progression was more conservative than the one I typically play. I normally go from $100 straight to $250 – then $500 – $1000 – $2500 – $5000. So I get to $5000 on the seventh hit. But hey – I’m an action junkie.
What about the six and eight? For them I like to do a classic $30 six and eight one-hit regression to $18 each – then run a modified six or eight progression that looks like this:
First hit on the six pays $35 – Drop $1 on the layout and tell the dealer to make your six and eight look like $18 each. You’ll get $60 change and have $36 action with just $1 of sevens exposure for the hand. Now here’s the progression:
Second hit: Either number will pay $21. Lock it up and you have a $20 profit guaranteed for your six and eight series – even if the devil jumps up next.
Third hit: Pays $21 – drop $3 and press the number that rolled to $42. Let’s say it’s the six again. You’ll still have a $17 win in the rack.
Fourth hit: Let’s say it’s the six again. Pays $49 (or $50 for $1). If you are conservative you could just lock it up. But I like to tell the dealer to make you six look like $90. He’ll press your bet and hand you a dollar change. Be a George and toss it to the stick and tell him “hard six for the boys.” You still have a guaranteed $17 win in the rack and $90 “free” bet on the six.
Fifth hit: Pays $105. Tell the stick to make the six look like $180 and lock up $15.
Sixth hit: Pays $210. If you want to say “same bet” at anywhere along this trek – that is absolutely the correct thing to do. If you are willing to risk most of your guarantee from the six – pick up $30 from your rack, add it to that $210 payoff and tell the dealer to “make it look like $420.
Seventh hit: Pays $500 for $10.
From this point on the progression is simply a matter of adding zeros to the previous progression. Let me just line the numbers up so you’ll see what I mean:
$18 – $42 – $90 – $180 – $420 – $900 – $1800 – $4200 – $9000. At $18, $180, and $1800 you’ll drop $3, $30, and $300 to power press to the next step. And again, at any point in there you can slow down and take a hit or two, do a 50% regression and start the progression again from that point, or just take it all down and lock up a big fat guaranteed win. Locking up a win is NEVER wrong at the craps table.
My suggestion to you is to find a balance between bankroll, sevens tolerance, and skill level and bet with your head, not your . . . er . . . well, you know. But when it’s time to make your move – go for it.