Revisiting Regressions

As craps players become more serious about the game they inevitably find themselves drawn to Advanced Craps by John Patrick – one of the best – if not THE best – craps strategy books in existence. One of the strategies many of us are quickly drawn to is the regression move. Simply put, a regression move is a play designed to lock up an early profit on a shooter and position the player for a larger win should the hand continue. It’s a strategy I use in virtually every session I play. While it does not give you a mathematical edge over the house, it does let the disciplined gambler play from a position of power. It is an especially effective way for precision shooters to play.

Let’s look at a player with a respectable SRR of 1:7 using the V-3 pre-set. For the sake of this example, let’s assume he keeps the dice on axis 100% of the time. Not only does the player know that on average, he’s going to get around ten tosses in before the devil jumps up, he also knows the distribution of numbers that will likely roll. Out of sixteen possible on-axis combinations, two add up to seven, six add up to six or eight, four add up to five or nine, and four add up to three, four, ten and eleven. Our astute player knows his advantage is on the inside numbers, and he bets those numbers in proportion to his advantage, with three chips each on the six or eight for every two on the five or nine. He knows that he may go point-seven, or he may shoot the lights out with a forty-five number hand. But over the long haul, if his tracking is correct, he will average eight tosses once the point is established. To err on the conservative side, he’s elected to play a strategy that includes a regression to lock up a profit after the fourth post-Come Out toss. His regression involves coming down off the five and nine and reducing the size of his bets on the six and eight. He will “same bet” subsequent hits until he gets over his SRR “hump.” If the roll extends beyond roll eight he will press every other hit in an up and out strategy.

Now let’s plug some numbers in and see how the hand plays out. click on “read more” below for the rest of the story.