When Hot Numbers Spread like a Virus

Let’s face it.  We’ve all been there.  You make a commitment to bet “smart” when you’re shooting and stick with the Pass Line, Odds, Placing the Six and Eight and your dominant Signature Number.  If one of those three happens to be your point you’ll only bet the other two.  Sounds like a plan, right?  But then what happens?  You set the Six as the point and Place the Eight and Nine for $18 and $15 each.  You toss one eight, drop $3 and power press it to $42.  Then you toss a 4 followed by the 5, 2, 4, 10, 11, 5, 4.  You’ve tossed eight numbers – six of them “box” numbers, and only gotten paid on one.  Worse, both the four and five have rolled TWICE already.  Do you stick with your plan, bring everything down and focus on hitting your point of Six, or do you do a little quick math, calculate that you have $57 action on the table and opt to spread to $52 across and take $5 change?  I know my play.  I’d go to $52 across and take $2 change.  I’d take the other $3 and hop the Eights because you and I both know what’s going to happen as soon as you take that $42 Eight down.

Okay, admittedly that last part is playing into my superstitions.  I fully admit it.  It’s certainly not a mathematically correct play.  Neither is Place betting the the Four and Ten rather than Buying it, and if you subscribe to the theories of the famous gaming author (which most of you know I don’t) you should never bet the five and nine.  But I’ve sat this hot hand out too many times in the past, and I simply refuse to do so in the future.  If the Eight and Nine come back to the party I have action on them and can address them at that time, but I look at craps from the perspective of a property owner running an apartment complex.  If you don’t pay your rent you get evicted.  In this case, so be it with the Eight and Nine.

Once you’ve spread your action out as above one of the most difficult things to accomplish is getting is “paid for.”  The beauty of focusing your action on just the Six and Eight is that you can bet a larger amount on them, then take an early steep regression to guarantee a profit or minimize your sevens exposure.  But when regressing to table minimum across bets the only way to regress off a bet is to take a bet down.  Because of the fact that it takes four to five hits to get to break even on your place bets, I suggest taking max odds behind the Pass Line early on with an eye toward locking up a profit on a Pass Line win early.  As for the Place bets, instead of pressing early I recommend taking two hits then pressing one until these bets are paid for.  Once they are covered you could set up to a more aggressive press and take strategy, or even throw in an occasional power press on whatever number appears to have become dominant.

Last of all, be attuned to Energy Draining Events at the table.  As a dice influencer you should be able to tune these things out and rise above them.  Being human and a gambler at heart – most of us have a difficult time doing it.  When in doubt – regress, turn your bets off, or take them down.  Remember, on any good hand half of your winnings are still on the table.  You can double the size of your win by taking your bets down.  You’re not at the casino for bragging rights.  You’re there to get the money.  Make a habit of it and winning is almost like a disease – one you want to catch.