Hedging your Hedged Hedges . . .

[heavy]

Okay, guys. I's Saturday and I'm up to my armpits in the day job. Had a PM question from one of the forum members asking the following. Would some of you guys mind kicking in with an opinion until I have a chance to ponder on this a bit:

1). This guy wants me to play the doey/don't $5-DP, $5-P. Then he wants me to lay $24 don't odds on whatever the point is. Next he wants me to put $5 on 5, $6 on 6, $6 on 8, and $5 on 9. He wants me to play 3 rolls then take everything down and wait for next shooter. When or IF I get up on my money to $40+, he wants me to still play doey/don't for $5-DP, $5-P but this time with $30 don't odds against whatever point and put $5 on 4, $5 on 5, $6 on 6, $6 on 8, $5 on 9, and $5 on 10. He wants me to again play this for 3 rolls then take everything down and wait for next shooter. Then Lastly IF I am up on my money $100+ he wants me to do the doey/don't for $5-DP, $5-P but this time with $42 don't odds against whatever point and put $10 on 4, $10 on 5, $2 soft hop on the 6 and 8, $10 on 9, and $10 on 10. Also he wants me to put $2 each on the hard 6 and 8. He again wants me to play this for 3 rolls then take everything down and wait for next shooter. (How do you think I would do with this? 75% of the time win? Or in other words would it be worth it?)

2). Is there an Iron Cross strategy that may even lose money on certain rolls but when the dust clears after maybe 2-6 hours of playing would I be up at least 75% of the time or at least do you think it would be worth it? Is there a way to incorporate the Whirl bet for $5 to the Iron Cross format or any other format that would be profitable especially in the short long run? It is interesting that when the 7 shows that the Whirl bet returns your $5.

3). Is there any type of strategy at all that plays in favor of a 7 to show as a BETTER outcome? In other words play for the seven maybe with the 6 and 8 involved or maybe the DP/DC hedge or ANYTHING that will in 2-6 hours of playing have me win about 75% of the time or in other words would it be worth playing it?)

[DIforLife]

well at first reading this, it made my headspin. Then i noticed the key that made the answer to all 3 very obvious...

ANYTHING that will in 2-6 hours of playing have me win about 75% of the time

and the answer to this of course is a resounding NO.

if indeed there was this magical formula, heavy definitely wouldnt be bored at his day job .

[Roller123]

1) I used to watch a guy play like this, the problem was when the point came before he took his Don't down he would get hammered. In your scenario it goes like this: Lay $24 on the point, place the 5/9 for $5 each and the 6/8 For $6 each. So now you have $24 on the Don't side and $22 on the Do side. In the perfect world you collect three hits and take everything down including the Don't. However in the craps world when the point is made on roll 1,2, or 3 you just lossed your $24 Don't and didn't make enough on the Do side to cover it. I've seen this play in action and it wasn't a winner.

2) The only time the Iron Cross (place bet 5,6,8 and a Field bet) loses money is if the 7 rolls. I don't like playing a Whirl bet instead of the Field especially when there is 3X payout on the 12 and 2X payout on the 2.

When betting random rollers think of craps as waves rolling into a beach. You've got the trough between waves and the peak on the top of each wave. You want to walk away when your money (win) is at the peak of the wave because a trough is sure to follow.

I do agree with only betting a random roller for a short # of rolls. I prefer betting the first 2 rolls after the point is made if the point is made immediately on the come out roll. Why? Because the average roll is something like 2.6 (help me out here guys) per shooter.

I am just surmising now but I am assuming your bankroll won't allow you to put a lot on the table at once and that is why you would prefer to play for 2-6 hours to make your goal. I would prefer short hit and runs to build your bankroll over the next year allowing you to eventually bet more. Six hours is way too long to be at a table.

Roller

[heavy]

I keep waiting for Wolfbyte (wwwww) to weigh in on this one. I have a feeling he'd take that top strategy, work in a 3 capping neural progression, back test it for six million rolls and proclaim it the greatest new thing. Hey, why not? If anybody had the patience (and apparently the time) to do this sort of thing - he's the man.

[SHOOTITALL]

My oar in the water: Take the time to peruse the don't writing of our pal over on the DI board. He has written a bunch on a don't Strategy.
With the other oar in the water, why doesn't your pal play this. I would not touch it with a dollar chip. You have too much outlay for too little income even when things go good.

[wild child]

.

4 to 6 hours hard at it craps play may tax the endurance of the average dice player.
Do people expose their bank roll in marathon active casino play ?
Yes and many go hard at it for far more sleepless hours setting records at depriving the body,mind and spirit to the point of going broke.

Have players bought in for $2,000,steeped into a GREAT HAND and won $5,000 in less than one hour? Has such a thing occurred ? On the RARE OCCASION, perhaps !

Have ALL( as in 100 % )THE WINNING PLAYERS HELD THE WINNINGS 70% of the time ? Or even 70% of winnings 70% of the time ..... I think not !!!!!!!!!

I have gathered these numbers in this made up example out of thin air for purposes of illustration.
If CASINO RINK-e DINK Spa and Hotel gathers $200,000,000 (TWO HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS) to go into business and shells out $9,000,000 each month of operation to draw a gross take of $14,5000 to pry$1,015,000 ( ONE MILLION FIFTEEN THOUSAND DOLLARS )each month net profit after all expenses.

If CASINO RINK-e DINK Spa and Hotel entertains an average of 1,400 patrons (suckers) each 24 hours or 1,400X 365 days = 511,000 patron hours / 12 months =42,584 each month.
That yields an AVERAGE loss of $23.84 per patron per hour based on 24 / 7/ 365 type operation . This hypothetical example includes TABLE GAMES and SLOTS...........

I have not asked permission. I just wanted to show something to which the board members may relate.

THE MAD PROFESSOR presented a strong plan with a HIGH % to win.

If we take for example THE M P $204 ACROSS and DOWN idea statistically 83% on ONE ROLL of THE DICE our $204 DOLLARS at RISK will yield $49 win or profit. THE M P indicates to leave THE $204 up for TWO WINNING ROLLS and COME DOWN.......
$49 +$49 =$98 in winnings to THE PLAYER
This is a STRONG RIGHT SIDE PLAY...THE M P did well by the people who employ this idea.
During the time the $204 is at risk,should a HORN NUMBER ROLL ,it is a NO WIN / NO LOSS
The downside is,should the SEVEN show while the $204 is actively at risk , ALL the $204 is LOST

YOU COULD FINAGLE A HEDGE STRATEGY as companion to this idea :

A HEDGE strategy would requier MORE $ placed on the BOX NUMBERS AS LAY BETS.
The RETURN would be far less $ won per roll and require frequent replacement of the lost side of the equation.
THE MAJOR PROBLEM IS THE MENTAL FATIGUE FACTOR.
FORGET to "RESET" a BET or FAIL TO GIVE THE DEALER INSTRUCTIONS TIMELY ENOUGH......... Also you may need factor in DEALER PISSED OFF ATTITUDE AT HAVING TO DEAL YOU AS A HIGH MAINTENANCE PATRON

The returns would be too small for all but the most patient player.Also the Bank Roll / Buy In may be beyond the grasp/reach / reality of the average player.

With this strategy,an undisciplined player could lose ground by chasing HORN NUMBERS.
Not a flaw in the plan....It could be a flaw owned entirely by the PLAYER


To reiterate :

The 30-50 minute or less session repeated after adequate rest is the MOST BEST way to approach the WINNERS CIRCLE in this game
Marathon sessions place the $$$ at risk TOO long
giving THE CASINO an overly larger advantage ,
(from human frailties/operator error)
than it already has from jump street.


Bottom line :
You may be able to cobble together "The a World CLASS GOLD MEDAL HEDGE " Pulling off a four to six hour grind ,may be TOO taxing .....

Play several short sessions with rest time between sessions,being giddy with holding onto many many many multiple small percentage wins. The KEY WORDS being #1HOLD #2 ONTO #3 MULTIPLE

The casino is doing well taking a miniscule win from each wager.
Their small % wins multiply as the house holds increasingly more of the PLAYER MONEY each hour of operation.
In a fashion ,you could do likewise.

Just Me Saying

Wild Child

[WOLFBYTE]

Heavy, All..........

I have been PM busy with a new poster on this board. He contacted me through PM's about his wife's cancer &

I have sent him to a totally free book site by Mr. Wynn Free.

The book is called :

" The Creator Gods of the Physical Universe Want to Talk to You. "

TOPICS:
WHAT'S REALLY GOING ON ON THE PLANET EARTH ?
WHAT'S THIS SHIFT ALL ABOUT AND THE REAL SIGNIFICANCE OF 2012 ?
WHERE DO YOU GO WHEN YOU DIE ?
HOW DOES PRAYER WORK ?
AND MORE.........

I followed the authors advice and ...Presto ! ....no more sleep apnea , no more sleep apnea machine, no
more daily naps....etc. !

The author is a Mr. Wynn Free and he was on the radio last month for 4 hours straight.

His text is a human-mind -blower story !
You can download his totally free book with ' NO ' strings attached @ :

http://www.creatorgodbook.com

Anyway, back to the hunt...............

I have found, due to the natural math flow of RR'ers outcomes in craps ( Ca. Card Craps included ) I need

a neg. progression to overcome my losses in craps. In my last post in ...Trips Reports (page #17 )...I laid-out a prime

example of how the neg. progression works, at Harraha's Laughlin, on my last comped junket jet trip.

I felt ' OK ' about losing my neg.progression opening bets.....those bets are the ones you want the Casino to win.

The vareince (sp) more often than not, will then tilt back in the players favor in the upper neg. progression steps.

Using a $10.00 M. Silverthorne Neural Neg. Progression ( back tested 1.1 million times through his Art. Intell.

Computer ) the real $$$$ neg. progression bets went :

-10,-15,-25,-40, +50.00 ( I was the shooter and the DP-V2 set did indeed finally, bring up the 10 as the point on the $50.00 bet ).

However, I COULD NOT BRING IN THE WINNING 7 IF MY LIFE DEPENDED ON IT !

I was using the 4/3 top and the 1/6 facing me.....over and over...double-pitching into 6's and 8's....so...

I looked over the full table of players and they were totally brain-dead !

THEY DID NOT SEE I WAS SHOOTING FROM THE DARK SIDE BECAUSE THE TABLE WAS BLANKETED IN MULTI-

STACKS OF BLACK CHIPS. The player to my right had eight black chips as his odds bet alone !

I had a recovery of lost-loot-neg.-progression-bet of $50.00 and I took full odds....+$300.00. I was due.

I thought .... " To hell with this ! I am pitching into 6's and 8's so I will just continue doing the same set,

with the same motions, with the same landing spot.....because the 10 is not manifesting and the 7

is not manifesting...so.... why not try to get the PL black chip players... to rape the boxman's kitty ? "

It worked ! I have never heard so much screaming on a craps table. The box paid-out +$1,000's

In the end, when the 7 showed, the whole table clapped and clapped !

Brain-dead all.....I was on the dark-side......... O' well.

WE ALL MADE $$$$ ....SUPER NICE !

Wolfbyte
aka... W7

[heavy]

Okay, here's the short answer. The Iron Cross (or Umbrella or Anything But Sevens or whatever else you want to call is) fills the need to win at least 75% of the time. It will actually win 83% of the time according to my semi-precise calculations. Unfortunately, you lose every bet on the layout 17% of the time - and it adds up to more than you'll win on the 83% side. Any combination of Don't bets, hop bets, or prop bets will only make the situation worse. At least that's how I see it. Anyone else want to weigh in?

[Americraps]

OK, I'll give it a shot-
Thinking in terms of HA. The six and 8 carry a house advantage of 1.52%. The five carries a HA of 4%. The field bet carries a 5.56 or 2.78 per roll. It seems like the most prudent thing to do is avoid the higher house edge bets and maximize the free odds bet (no HA!) along with the 6 &8. I know- how boring.....

[wild child]

.I copy cat this from a dyed in the wool DARK-SIDER..
It can be tweaked and finagled to individual risk tolerance...

Patience or better said having the patience to wait out till a best opportunity presents.

This may considered eccentric or UNORTHODOX ,however it has a high % success rate,which varies from each attempt in use.

I observed a confirmed DON'T PLAYER and have copy cat played it some number of times.

Seems to work best on a choppy table which offers THE FIRE BET or THE ALL-TALL- SMALL bet.

It's application has been posted numerous times applied to THE FIRE BET so I'll pass on the details other than say LAY AGAINST THE FINAL # to complete THE FIRE BET.
A Place BET also on the same number would set up the HEDGE SPREAD.

The interesting A-T-S ploy goes similarly .

Say you are on a $10 Minimum Craps Table which offers the ALL-TALL-SMALL bet

Say you normally Pass Line $10
with DOUBLE ODDS $20 on the 4-5-9-10 = $30 exposure
or $10 with $25 ODDS should the 6/8 become THE POINT = $35 exposure
Toss in another say $52 or so $ to place bet the other 5 BOX NUMBERS and you have bent up a $100 bill

Before the first roll risk $10 on the All-Tall-Small

$4 on the SMALL........$2 on the ALL.........$4 on TALL

SMALL & TALL pay $34 or $35 to one depending on specific casino 4 X $34= $136 5x$35=$140

The ALL pays $175 to $1 so $175 x 2 = $350
CASINO DEPENDENT IF YOU GET YOUR ORIGINAL $2 returned also.

The Casino wins far more $$$$$$$$ than $ paid out to "WINNERS" on this one carnival wager.

Should THE BET win either the SMALL or the TALL............You merely wait it out until only the final number is yet to be tossed for THE BIG WIN.........

Highest probability is ZERO of the ALL-TALL-SMALL will be paid out and you are minus $10

Next highest in the food chain is either the SMALL or TALL will pay and you are awarded $136 in CASINO CHIPS plus( and this seems option-able ) the $4 you placed on that bet.

At the very top of this food chain is the carrot of the $175 to $ ONE.....LONG SHOT..

When it comes down to nut cutting time ,you could LAY BEY say $90 against the final number and pocket the spread maters not which way it goes.

The above ploy works with BOX NUMBERS.

SHOULD THE FINAL # BE A HORN NUMBER........Oh Well.........at least you are holding something and until the final roll there is still HOPE.

W C

[joe57777]

Ok here are a few more strategies to ponder over:

1). Bet a 3-way $1 each Hop 7 for 5 rolls. You chose which 5 rolls.

2). Bet a 2-way $1 each soft hop on the 6 and 8 and $8 on the field for 3 rolls.

3). On the come-out roll bet a 3-way Hop 7 for $1 each and $8 on the field.

Any takers on any of these? And or what changes would you make here to anything?