Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Goodmorning Tgold, r_ventura_23 and members,

That's enough Vacation time, 3day vacation...back to handicapping.

The brain wants action.

After handicapping THE numbers, I came up with the 76ers -2 [ 76ers is my pick for 11/11/2021 ].

Could not Stay away for 10 days.

Hoping i came back for a win WITH the 76ERS. Today I'm on tier 2...200 hundred dollar bet.

luck at the casino.

jaime 1943.

Jaime,
That’s a All America pick for Veterans Day

Happy Veterans Day all you vets & thanks for you service !

DN8R

PS Navy beats Army......

Greetings,

Lets welcome back jaime 1943 with a lost. 76ers 109 and Tor 115... here we go again, best team tanks at home.

On the 12 of Nov, i have the [ LAKERS ] - 3.5. Why is it That Lebron is all of a sudden a accident ready to happen.

luck at the casino.

jaime 1943.

Greetings members,

This year I'm keeping track of Money won and lost, not games Won and Lost, because this year I'm betting tiers. In this case Tier [ 1 is a $100 dollar bet. ] Tier 2 is a $200 dollar bet. ] Tier 3 is $300 dollar bet. ]

So far in [ Tier 1 i have lost $ 330 dollars.
$ 20 dollars.
...................
$ 350 Total.

So far in [ Tier 2 i have Won $ 1,200 dollars.
Won $ 180 dollars.
Won $ 80 dollars.
...........................
Won $ 1,460 dollars.

So far in [ [ Tier 2 i have lost $ 220 dollars .

Won $1,460 dollars .

Lost $ 220 dollars .
...........................


Total WON- $1,460
Total LOST- $ 570

PLUS .............
$ 890 dollars. [ so far this year ].

Somebody, please go over these numbers And tell us if they are right OR wrong. Thank you.

Tonight, 11/12/2021 my pick are the [ LAKERS - 3.5 ]

luck at the casino.

jaime 1943.

Greetings Tgold,

Today my pick the lakers are losing by 32 points, on Tier 2... that will be 3 losers in a row.

That sends me back to Tier 1, $100 dollar bet.

Today the 13th of Nov, my pick is BOSTON - 3 ... On tier 1. $ 100 dollar bet.

That's a 3 game losing streak, The way Tgold puts it...you will also go into losing streaks.

luck at the casino.

jaime 1943.

Testing...jaime1943, I can log in.

but can not reply.

Greetings,

I'M trying to post a reply, I can log in to the forum...when i post, the system sends me back to log in, but i will out smart the system that sends me back to Login, just give time.

11/14/2021 LAKERS - 3.

jaime1943.

Greetings and a goodmorning to you,

Heavy,today i wa abble to login on my third attempt, that's good.

Todays pick [ Washington - 2 looks as a Overlay. ] so for that reason, my bet is [ Washinton - 2 ]

Tgold, what is your Opinion on this game.

luck to you.

jaime 1943.

Greetings guys,

On monday had Washington - 2 THEY won by 5 points, good for me. on 2 game win Streak.

on Tuesday i have NO PICK on these NBA games.

luck at the Casino.

jaime1943.

Greetings Heavy and members,

My bookie and friend, is telling me to go back to ONE flat bet on these games.

Starting WED 11/17/2021, I will start Betting one flat bet of 300 dollars each game.

So far this season ...WON 14 Games and lost 11 GAMES. [ Plus 3 games ]

luck at the casino.

jaime 1943.

Hi Jaime--good wins on your last two picks.
I missed the first one /won with Wash last night as I thought u were taking a sabatical til the 17th and simply didnt see your pick on Bos.

Im looking forward to your pick for Wed.

all the best,tg

Greetings Tgold,

What do you think of me going back to flat betting these NBA games.?

When i was betting Tiers , some times I was betting Tier one When the bet was on TIER 2... and some times i would bet Tier 2 When should have been on Tier 1.

That's why i am going back to betting Flat Bets.

The bookie told me, we would make more betting Them flat.

luck at the casino.

jaime1943.

Greetings Tgold and members,

Today WED 11/17/2021 After almost 2 hours of handicapping these games, i came up with a team that my numbers like, But I do not like, this team... might show up tonight and blow away the other team.

But i have no other choice but to bet it, What i like is the line - 2... my pick is [ MINNESOTA - 2 ]

Guys be careful with the amount of money you bet on it.

luck at the casino.

jaime 1943.

Hi jaime1943
It looks like you may have another pos streak materializing.

Jaimie: "...Greetings Tgold,
What do you think of me going back to flat betting these NBA games.? .."

I agree with your bookie in that you will make more flat betting vs doing a sliding scale(assuming you have an advantage), and I feel undoubtedly u do. I guess it just depends on your objective(e.g., Net+ for the year, double your bankroll, generate a weekly income,make bankroll survive the season, ...etc.).
Because you have an advantage (though we may not know the exact advantage), I would suggest just continue flat betting.

Another option Ill throw out just for consideration. One could consider a ( "kelly criterion" type % = To Your Advantage), of your bankroll and adjust daily or weekly. An example: Lets say u have a verified advantage of 1.5% (or whatever it is) and a bankroll of $10K, then wager $150 per event and adjust upward when the bankroll is greater than $10K(bankroll grows to 11K, then wager $165=1.5%). However, I wouldnt adjust the wager below $150 if that was the level of your initial losses equal(unless u are just wanting your bankroll to survive the season). Again just for our illustration purpose as I have no idea your precise advantage.
*I would encourage u to keep precise win/loss records season to season as not only can we calculate your advantage for future seasons. We can also examine how your winning /losing steaks unfold--I find this helpful in designing a wagering approach for any gambling event.

Bottom line: Flat bet seems to be working/meeting your objectives so I wouldnt change it.
Just keep doing what your doing.
----------------------------------------------------------------

An example from my aforementioned sliding scale: Im now 6-3 for the season and after going 4-3 on wagers @ 3.5U, I reduced on the scale and have won my wagers at 3.0A, and 3B, not counting the 11/17 potential wager. So I am +3net decisions and ahead 9.5U(less vig). My main purpose with the scaled model was to utilize the swaying back/forth of wins-loss streaks so the ratcheting up or down will pay for my expenses(vig ,commish,...etc). Based on the premise I will win my higher wagers and more losses will show at a slightly lower level.
Plus any lengthy losing streak will have less impact on my bankroll (providing we finish season >= 50-50 correct vs incorrect, and I could actually finish season ahead net$ even with slightly fewer wins than losses.
No worries at all as I feel very confident in your handicapping skills.


All the best/ may all cash tickets tomorrow,

Greetings Tgold,
I been doing this now for 3 years, betting NBA games.

In 2019, the first year i started playing NBA games, i was PLUS 35 games. I made alot of money.

In 2020 , It was a washout year, Corona 19...no action on NBA games.

In 2021, so far I'm [ Won 14 games and Lost 11 games ] Plus 3 games.

I think my mind is more clear now, so for that reason will be betting a flat bet of $ 300 dollars on every game.

Lets hope i have a better season in 2021, then i did in 2019.

luck at the casino.

jaime 1943.

Greetings Tgold and members,

On 11/17/2021 my pick was Minnesota - 2...They won by 10 points. GOOD FOR ME.

That makes my record now, [ WON 15 and LOST 11 ] Plus 4 games. That was a Flat bet of $300 dollars.

I had my [ Heineken beer ] I need to have 50 more this Season, after every Win.

I Do not have a Pick for THURSDAY, see you all on Friday 11/19/2021.

luck at the casino.

jaime1943.

Tgold, having problems posting,

Today 11/19/2021, Pick is CHARLOTTE - 2.5

jaime.

Greetings members,

Today on 11/19/2021, my pick [ CHARLOTTE -2.5 ] Won by 3 points. GOOD FOR ME.

The public made the [ pacers ] the Favorite, dont't know why, is ok... i won my bet.

Tgold, did you bet my Pick at 2.5?

luck at the casino.

jaime 1943.

Hi Jaimie
Good job with your current W streak.

The Minn W was my 3.0C and Char game was my 3.0D. Per my sliding scale I will now reduce to 2.0A for my next wager since I won the first four at 3.0(anytime I win 4/7 @ one level I regress for the next 7-bet level). Keep doing what your doing.

*re:The Minn win--I ran some filters on it and didnt see any signif bias(though I liked the -2 points metric) / + the fact Minn was at home playing a team wrapping up a 4-game road trip. I was hesitant but for the sake of consistency and my motto: "In george1776 I trust".


"Good teams win, Great teams cover"


All the best,

Greetings Tgold and members,

Good betting on your part, Today on 11/20/2021 I have my Pick Winning at 7 . 0, but vegas wants me to give them 12 plus points...I will not. I will sit this dance Out.

Have to learn When not to bet. Hoping you and the members that are betting my picks are doing well

Right now [ WON 16 and LOST 11 ] Plus 5 Games.

luck at the casino.

jaime1943.