Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Well, we don't want to get into politics so let's not discuss who you're voting for or why. Let's just talk about odds. Bookies around the world are falling on both sides of the fence when it comes to the Trump - Biden call. Here are some of the odds-maker's calls I've seen this morning:

electionbettingodds.com used an average of odds compiled of results from FTXm, smarkets, PredictIt and BetFair. Their call in Electoral College votes: Biden 279 - Trump 259. Meanwhile, if we want to look at a partison political analysis of where the Right thinks it will fall out - former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich said last week he believes Trump will win with 324 electoral votes. That would be a complete embarrassment for the Democrats.

The European on-line betting service betonline.ag has Trump winning the Electoral College vote but losing the popular vote in something of a repeat of the 2016 election. They have more bets available on the election than you can shake a stick at. Here's a sampling as reported by Sports Illustrated:

Odds to win the presidential election
Joe Biden: -180
Donald Trump: +160

To win the popular vote
Joe Biden: -675
Donald Trump: +475

Number of votes for Donald Trump
Over/Under: 69 ½ million

Number of votes for Joe Biden
Over/Under: 79 ½ million

Voter turnout in the U.S presidential election
Over 149 ½ million voters: -500
Under 149 ½ million voters: +300

Percentage of votes for Kanye West
Under 0.5%: -1500
Over 0.5%: +600

Winner of popular vote wins Electoral College
Yes: -260
No: +200

Total electoral votes for Joe Biden
Under 310 ½ electoral votes: -150
Over 310 ½ electoral votes: +110

On which day will the loser concede the election?

Nov. 4, 2020: 2/1
Nov. 3, 2020: 9/4
Dec. 1, 2020 or later: 5/2
Nov. 5, 2020: 5/1
Nov. 6, 2020: 10/1
Nov. 7, 2020: 12/1
Nov. 8, 2020: 16/1
Nov. 10, 2020: 25/1
Nov. 11, 2020: 25/1
Nov. 9, 2020: 25/1
Nov. 12, 2020: 28/1
Nov. 13, 2020: 28/1
Nov. 14, 2020: 33/1
Nov. 15, 2020: 33/1
Nov. 16, 2020: 40/1
Nov. 17, 2020: 40/1
Nov. 18, 2020: 40/1
Nov. 19, 2020: 40/1
Nov. 20, 2020: 50/1
Nov. 21, 2020: 50/1
Nov. 22, 2020: 50/1
Nov. 23, 2020: 50/1
Nov. 24, 2020: 50/1
Nov. 25, 2020: 50/1
Nov. 26, 2020: 50/1
Nov. 27 2020: 50/1
Nov. 28 2020: 50/1
Nov. 29 2020: 50/1
Nov. 30 2020: 50/1

The website oddshark has hourly updates on the odds. Here's what they're looking like this afternoon with Trump in the first (plus) column and Biden in the second (negative) column:

8:30 am ET +135 -165
10:00 am ET +140 -170
12:00 pm ET +160 -190

Similarly, the website bookies.com has Trump trending upward at +180 and Biden at -225.

The POLITICAL website, Real Clear Politics, has Trump at a decided disadvantage with Biden leading with roughly 62% to 38% of the vote. No comment on the accuracy of political based website reporting.

Meanwhile, the Vegas Insider is showing Trump trending at +140 and Biden at -160.

An article in Fortune Magazine put Trump's odds at prevailing at only one in four, and yet the author of the article was betting on Trump based on Trump's history of pulling it out in the last few days (and the odds of a favorable return on the bet, which put the odds against Trump).

Meanwhile Covers, another oddsmaking site, puts Trump trending at +138 and Biden at -175 today.

All indicators seem to say that Biden has the lead but Trump has the momentum. It's up to the voters to say whether it's too little too late.

Thoughts on the election are welcome, but let's stay away from hate-speak and pure politics. We all know what the issues are already. Thanks.

IMO european Arb is the way to go with this. Only bet if you can win either way.

Arbitrage betting takes a lot of planning to stay ahead of the game. I can recall when John Patrick was in his Sports Betting prime. He'd have bets on the Super Bowl a year or two in advance - long before we even had a clue as to who the individual league champions would be. As the seasons progressed he'd lay off bets here and there, and by the end of the season he'd have a dozen different bets out there - all guaranteed winners. I don't know how the hell he kept up with all of it, but he did. Sometimes he might have $1000 at risk to win $10, but it was a guaranteed $10 and he MIGHT win $2000 or more and that's what he was looking for - one of his dogs or a parlay to come home. But always with a save $10 in the bank if it didn't.

Wow! I am surprised at the odds for Kanye West. If he won, the FLOTUS would be Kim Jong-Un's Sister: Kim Kar-Dash-E-Un. A new dawning in our relationship with North Korea.

Don't get me started . . .

There was some dude that bet $5,000,000 on the election and Just Like That, he got screwed.

A mystery British businessman has bet $5 million on President Donald Trump defeating Joe Biden at 37/20 — believed to be the largest political bet ever made.

Yep. I thought the guy who bet 1.2 million on Bit'em winning was insane. Go figure.

I got this from my daughter. It's her version of the election

$5Bill

heavy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:24 pm Arbitrage betting takes a lot of planning to stay ahead of the game. I can recall when John Patrick was in his Sports Betting prime. He'd have bets on the Super Bowl a year or two in advance - long before we even had a clue as to who the individual league champions would be. As the seasons progressed he'd lay off bets here and there, and by the end of the season he'd have a dozen different bets out there - all guaranteed winners. I don't know how the hell he kept up with all of it, but he did. Sometimes he might have $1000 at risk to win $10, but it was a guaranteed $10 and he MIGHT win $2000 or more and that's what he was looking for - one of his dogs or a parlay to come home. But always with a save $10 in the bank if it didn't.

As someone who has been following JP since I turned 21 and was a member of his service I bet the same way. Last year I had the Chiefs before the season started, which I hedge with the 49ers, and if it was for that last TD I would of had a beautiful middle. This year I am on Seattle and the Steelers. It would be wonderfully if these two teams meet. I would be loaded on the Chiefs too if the Yankees would of just made it to the WS. That was a parlay I had way back when Jaime was giving out Basketball picks. I would take one of his picks and parlay it with some future baseball and or football bet before the season even started.

Heavy, you will be pleased to hear that myself and my mate Frank kept the faith with Texas and bet it to remain Republican at uk odds of between 1/3 and 4/9 which we have put down as one of the bets of the year.

In other news there is now an interesting position on Betfair here in the UK where well over £500 million has been traded on the next president market - this is also the place by the way where that bet of $5million went in during the week - well as of now for those who want between 5% and 6% on their money you can still back Biden to be next President if you believe Trump's legal challenge has no basis. You may need to wait a good few weeks to get paid out though.

Overall there is some fascination still though that such a betting market gives it a 5% chance that this may not actually be a done deal yet....

It still goes on - Trump is now down to as low as 10/1 in the Betfair market "Who will be elected to be the next President of the United States of America as a result of the 2020 presidential election?"

Well over ½ Billion £ has been traded on this market alone, making it comfortably the biggest betting market this UK bookie has ever seen.

UNHH!! Inview of the last four years, two things- why should biden expect a smooth transition; and why would anybody think the election and mail in trash were not managed to death by his party.

That better who lost millions betting on the president to win should have listened to me. But..I'm just a craps
shooter.

trump will win

UNHH!! Do we have another 4 years left ?

Luv it or Shove it
.
2021 = Jo-Boma iii

?no?......?Know?.........What-ever!

Let us get back to CRAPS

just me saying
w c

I think this thread is done.