Are you ready for the NBA-

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jaime_1943
Posts: 1209
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:21 pm

Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by jaime_1943 » Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:30 pm

Greetings members,

Oct 8, 2021, right now i'm having a Heineken beer, getting ready for the start of the NBA season on the 18 of Oct 2021, the countdown has started for me [ 10 more days for the first day of play ].

Who is with me.? post your names.

jaime1943.

jaime_1943
Posts: 1209
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:21 pm

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by jaime_1943 » Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:23 am

Greetings/goodmorning,

Guys do not get old, I am 78 years young, my little boy WAS going to take me to the my local Casino because at 78 i do not drive anymore.

His old lady decided she wanted to go to dinner and a movie, DO NOT worry young lady[ one day you to will be old ].and your kids will pay you back for me. They think they will be young forever.
Enough of that Rant jaime.

Back to the NBA.
I am handicaping the last 15 Winning games i won over and over, to make sure i will be ready for the 2021 NBA season.
9 days to opening night in the NBA.

Luck at your local Casino, and on your way home with your winnings [ Scream out loud, jaime this one is for you. And do not forget the Heineken/32 ounces.

jaime 1943.

r_ventura_23
Posts: 863
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Location: New Jersey

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by r_ventura_23 » Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:37 am

Looking forward to your picks.

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DarthNater
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Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2011 8:01 pm
Location: Vegas, Baby!

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by DarthNater » Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:25 pm

The Heineken countdown has begun

Good luck, Jamie; DN8R
Your lack of faith in The Force disturbs me, Commander.......

jaime_1943
Posts: 1209
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:21 pm

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by jaime_1943 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:34 am

Good afternoon,

Countdown to lift off is 6 days, Get your $1,000,000 millon dollar Bankroll ready.

luck at the casino Guys/Gals, Oct 12, 2021.

jaime1943.

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DarthNater
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Location: Vegas, Baby!

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by DarthNater » Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:02 am

LOL with 6 days to go, what do you think of the Nets without Kyrie?

DN8R
Your lack of faith in The Force disturbs me, Commander.......

jaime_1943
Posts: 1209
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:21 pm

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by jaime_1943 » Fri Oct 15, 2021 2:01 am

Greetings members,
Oct 15, 2021 3:am

Just 3 more days to the NBA'S first game.

To DN8R, I think the nets do not need a cry baby like Kyrie, you need to trade Him, and move on.

luck at the Casino

jaime1943.

jaime_1943
Posts: 1209
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:21 pm

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by jaime_1943 » Sat Oct 16, 2021 10:39 pm

Greetings from sunny puerto rico.

10/16/2021 two more days , till the first game of the NBA season.

This year I think the Lakers will win it all again. Members ,what is your pick to win it all?

jaime1943.

jaime_1943
Posts: 1209
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:21 pm

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by jaime_1943 » Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:52 am

Greetings members,

On Tuesday the lakers will be at home PLAYING game # one, I will be betting them - 4.5

This year i will be making my bets Only with my Bookie.

The first five games, i will be betting 100 dollars on each game.
Games 6 thru 10, will be betting 200 dollars on each game.
Games 11 thru 15, will be betting 300 dollars on each game.
Games 16 thru 82, will be betting 400 dollars on each game.

May the games start in 2021...Luck to all.

jaime.

r_ventura_23
Posts: 863
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:11 am
Location: New Jersey

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by r_ventura_23 » Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:53 pm

Hoping you pick as well as you did two years ago.

jaime_1943
Posts: 1209
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:21 pm

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by jaime_1943 » Mon Oct 18, 2021 1:36 am

Greetings r_ventura_23,

Last year i realized after 7 games , that this was not going to be a NBA. season [ BUT ] a corona 19 season.

So after those first 7 games i gave up Trying to Fight the Corona 19 Devil, i took the 10 count.

But this season, everything will be back to Normal, and it should be a Winning season for me.

Luck for all at the Casino.

jaime1943.

r_ventura_23
Posts: 863
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:11 am
Location: New Jersey

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by r_ventura_23 » Mon Oct 18, 2021 3:10 pm

Thanks. I have $50 on the Lakers.....money line. In addition I get $1 of free bets for every point Lebron scores.

Tgold
Posts: 544
Joined: Sun Apr 14, 2013 12:23 am

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by Tgold » Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:07 pm

Hi jaime1943

Best of luck/looking forward to your picks.

re:
"... The first five games, i will be betting 100 dollars on each game.
Games 6 thru 10, will be betting 200 dollars on each game.
Games 11 thru 15, will be betting 300 dollars on each game.
Games 16 thru 82, will be betting 400 dollars on each game. ..."

Q1) Is there a specific reason for doing a predetermined four-tier five-wager system/then following with the final leg of 67-wagers at highest $400 level.

Thx in advance,tg
All the best,
Tgold

jaime_1943
Posts: 1209
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:21 pm

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by jaime_1943 » Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:12 am

Greetings Tgold,

Oct 19 2021, is been a good day today.

The Answer to your question is yes.

I'M using the first 15 games to see how my handicapping is holding UP, before i play Real Money on the Last 67 games of the season.

If i see Teams playing below Parr the first 15 games, i will handicapp those games Over and Over to see Why, then i will adjust my betting on the next 5 games, untill the teams are playing up to Parr.

Then my bets will be 400 dollars a game the rest of the season.

Luck at the casino.

jaime1943.

jaime_1943
Posts: 1209
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:21 pm

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by jaime_1943 » Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:26 am

Greetings members,

Last night my Pick, the lakers played under par...so my pick the lakers lost. I lost $110.00 dollars.

So tonight my pick is Charlotte - 2 points.

This is the second game of my first 5 picks, This pick should put me back in the game.

Luck at the casino.

jaime 1943.

Tgold
Posts: 544
Joined: Sun Apr 14, 2013 12:23 am

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by Tgold » Wed Oct 20, 2021 10:17 am

Hi jaime1943/thx for your prompt reply to my Q. Your graduated tiers /thoughts make sense.

The following is how I plan on wagering the NBA season and mostly your picks(not every day though days I omit wont be due to my opinions but simply because I couldnt or didnt get my bet in).
My thought process for this is that you likely have an advantage for the season(<=82 events), yet may at times win 7-8 in a row(or lose 7-8 IAR), and I wont be too overly concerned(& u shouldnt either), as I will be winning more at higher levels and losing more at lower levels.
I perceive these wagers as approaching a 50-50 even-chance proposition(but your slight advantage will present within the 82 decisions. So with the same logic as if I was approaching an even-chance table game and had not collected any data points to see where the bias was(& imo there is always a bias somewhere). As Follows:

7-level 7-tiers sliding 7-unit scale

My bet spread is (1u--7u). I will start at a unit size of 3.5u. Anytime I win any four out of seven wagers at any level I will reduce to the immediate next lower unit size(even when I win the first four of the seven wagers). Anytime I lose >=4 wagers at any level I will increase to the immediate next higher unit size(though unlike when I win the first four, I will wager the full seven wagers and only then increase to said next upper level).

1111111
2222222
3333333
3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Start
4444444
5555555
6666666
7777777


Best of skill to you Jaime1943 in Puerto Rico/ May the sun always find you even on the coldest of days.
All the best,
Tgold

jaime_1943
Posts: 1209
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:21 pm

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by jaime_1943 » Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:34 pm

Greetings Tgold,

10/20/21...Temp is 80 degrees and sunny and windy.

Like the way your mind works,I think you and i are Betting the same way on these NBA games.

Do you think DN8R can play this betting system on his NFL picks.

I will have to see how i can incorprate your betting system into my betting system this NBA season.

Like you say, i will go into these winning streaks of 7 or more games.

Now you have me thinking, about my betting system on these games, have you tried betting this way on

the game of Craps.?

Luck at the casino.

jaime1943.

jaime_1943
Posts: 1209
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:21 pm

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by jaime_1943 » Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:44 pm

Greetings members,

10/20/21...Temp: 75 degrees.

Today my pick Won the game, but it did not beat the line. lost 110 dollars. That was game 2 of the season.

As Tgold calls it, that was Tier number 1 Game 2. Love Tgold's bettings system, fill with Tgold's betting system i can not loose in the long run. Thank you Sir.

For the date of 10/21/ 2021, will play Golden State - 4

Luck at the casino.

jaime1943.

Tgold
Posts: 544
Joined: Sun Apr 14, 2013 12:23 am

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by Tgold » Thu Oct 21, 2021 12:06 am

Hi jaime1943
I didnt see your season opener selection (lakers) so didnt have any wagers opening night.

I played your pick tonight(char) as my first placement (so im 0-1 and that was my 3.5a, tomorrows pick will be 3.5b,...etc), on my aforementioned 7-7-7 sliding scale . I hope to place 70-74 wagers out of the 82 picks. though may only get 60-70 as Im sure some picks will have late-breaaking news or my line will be a couple different from what you received,....etc.

Jaime1943:
"...I will have to see how i can incorprate your betting system into my betting system this NBA season.

Like you say, i will go into these winning streaks of 7 or more games.

Now you have me thinking, about my betting system on these games,



I guess it all depends on what YOUR objectives are for these 82 wagers. For example do you want to survive the season on one buyin(seasonal bankroll), or do you want to double your seasonal bankroll, maybe earn 8% of bankroll because maybe your local banks' best investment vehicle only returns 4%,...etc, other? . IMO your 1-4 spread with 5 wagers per level on first three, will serve you well if you have a higher-than-expected number of losses at front end of season(lets say you started 3-12). Because you can win just a few at the 4th levels and easily recoup. However, as u will agree if you were to get on a huge winning streak at early part of season (@ 1.0U level), then just the opposite could happen as a much higher number of losses could occur at the 4th and highest level.
Overall it likely wont matter too much as you are just as likely to have losing (or winning ) steaks at either ends of the season and your Mean wager is $3.63U I believe. Again just quick thoughts as I dont recall your number of untis, bankroll risk, how many bankrolls per season, short term and long term objectives,...etc.

My betting spread above is to allow my nba bankroll to survive long enough to give your advantage a sufficient number of trials(decisions) to shine through. My specific win goal will be to earn a >=20% return before the season ends and risk <=100% of nba bankroll in that effort. We could possibly see upward to 2-3SD variance (+/-). Im prepared for that and my spread will help with how the volatility affects my buyin for this. Obviously it wont change Probability, EV, H.E., ...etc.


"...have you tried betting this way onthe game of Craps. ..."

Yes as it was designed for games with even chance weighted wagers such as Craps line wagers though initially utilized more with Pai Gow /roulette. Though Pai Gow tables are becoming obsolete so not much PG in past year or two. I prefer to utilize on one single wager and try to keep the Variance wound tightly around a single event so it will hopefully soften the volatility on my buyin(typically only one from: Dc1,dc2, dc3,or dc4th).
I play Bac far more than anything else and do about 98% of my wagering as a Pos Progression so really havnt used it in Bac (or maybe occasionally after pos run as to just pick up a couple extra wins when the shoe has been significantly skewed. It would likely perform similar as to craps or any other even chance game.


All the best,
All the best,
Tgold

jaime_1943
Posts: 1209
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:21 pm

Re: Are you ready for the NBA-

Post by jaime_1943 » Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:38 am

Goodmorning Tgold,

Like the way you think,i think patience is the key to all gambling games.

That's why 90% of all players in a casino will be losers in the long run, and the short term to.

Seen players up good money And walk out broke/They wanted more cash AND because of lack of patience no cash for you.

And on the way home They are saying to themselves, tomorrow i will win. [ no they won't ]

I think the game of [ Baccarat ] is the game that is easy to beat with your betting system.

When you play baccarat, are you a winner with this system.?

I wish DN8R would Post on this betting system, that you have, how long did it take you to come up with this system?

Luck at the casino.

jaime1943.

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