Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I'm bringing this topic back for 2021 after last years thread ran for a big touchdown. Thanks for all your encouraging emails to bring it back. Last yer's thread is locked now, so come on here for the latest.

My Format evolved a bit under the 'rona from the PrimeTime Three Teaser and friends to the who's still standing that has a good number.

I'm starting late as could have grabbed TB when they were -6, and SF was at -6. But I'm still grabbing them and teasing them down. I'm looking for a third, and possibly fourth leg, and need to figure that out before TB kicks off tomorrow night.

Choices for those leg(s) include LAR, GB, and ?

Those of you that played along last year (and especially those who made $$$) what are you looking at?

DN8R

whose on first, man im lost when it comes to sports betting

Big O wrote: ↑Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:28 pm whose on first, man im lost when it comes to sports betting

There's a lot of info around, some of it is good. If you are interested - I found the John Patrick book on Sports Betting very helpful - its written in the same style as his craps books, but he lays out a lot. many of his teaser and parlay plays are akin to mine; he takes it a bit deeper with hedges (that's John) but you'll know more after you read it. Also, Stanford Wong's classic: "Sharp Sports Betting" is super good. I had the pleasure of having dinner with Stanford a decade ago, like a month after the Super Bowl & and we had a fabulous discussion that I still value and use to this day for sports bet assessments.

Happy reading!

DN8R

The problem with sports betting, IMHO, is you pretty much have to be a sports fan to bet sports. John Patrick and I discussed this over the phone and in person on several occasions as he has tried many times to convince me to get on the sports betting bandwagon. I'll bet the ponies because I grew up raising horses, started hanging out at the race track when I was 14 and betting the ponies when I was 16. The transition to betting dog races was no big deal. But football, basketball, et al? Honestly, I could give a rat's ass about any of those sports for many reasons. But since I have a policy about not getting political here I'll leave those alone. I won't even get into the fact that so many of the personalities in sports are given a free ride in every other aspect of their live simply because they can dribble a ball, sink a three pointer, kick a field goal, throw a football, or sack a quarterback. Horses run for the love of running (with a little encouragement from the jockey and the occasional needle). Running backs run for a buck. And if someone offers them a few more bucks they run for them. So there I go, killing Nate's thread. Apologies, old pal. Not my intention. Bottom line, John was never able to talk me into betting sports, even though I have his book and several others on sports betting. I'll just stick to parlaying Horns and Hardways.

heavy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 09, 2021 5:11 pm So there I go, killing Nate's thread. Apologies, old pal. Not my intention. Bottom line, John was never able to talk me into betting sports, even though I have his book and several others on sports betting. I'll just stick to parlaying Horns and Hardways.

Well, hopefully after that attempted murder, the thread will bounce back....... I've narrowed my third leg to teasing either KC from -5.5 or LAR from -7.5. Problem is TB is now at -9 & SF is -8

DN8R

IMHO, is you pretty much have to be a sports fan to bet sports.

I would think being a fan would be critical or at least very beneficial to being successful. Sports had always been a big part of my life, playing and watching. Paying for the largest part of my college education but the last few years have really turned me off. I would think you would need to watch lots of games not just your fav team. Knowing who is hurt, who is confident who beat who. You can always get injury reports i guess but watching and seeing how players respond in the heat of the battle seems essential to me.

Thanks for the advice Nate. Doubt i get off in it too far but if i do i will seek you out for advice.

Just a word of advice Nate, you better tease Cleveland up to plus 11.5, then you will have a lock. Mahomes will be running for his life Sunday and you will complete your parlay.

Hops

HowieHops wrote: ↑Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:05 pm Just a word of advice Nate, you better tease Cleveland up to plus 11.5, then you will have a lock. Mahomes will be running for his life Sunday and you will complete your parlay.

Hops

Hmmmm, we’ll see. Tough to tease dogs away from the Dawg Pound especially. Mr Reid rebuilt his OL after the Super Bowl chase down. I would rather pass than bet against Mahomes, or Russell Wilson, or Mr. Brady.

DN8R

Well, Mr Brady got me to +2, despite four Tampa turnovers, one parlay lives by 1/2 point and the three teamer goes to 2 because of a push.

Play on, DN8R

William Hill ran a Promo during the Thursday NFL game....make a $2 or more bet on the game - get $20. Just got my $20 credited to my account today

I didn’t see the offer till after the game, so it’s a pleasant reminder to check for offers often

DN8R

Well, week # 1 is in the books after attending an exciting Monday Night clash here in Vegas

Now, it’s a new week and time to go to the window, picks will be coming shortly, before I hop on the plane to Biloxi.

DN8R

Last Sunday, William Hill had an “unplanned outage”.
Yeah, right...... beginning before the early games and running to nearly halftime - their servers failed. So no action on those games resulting in a sad solo pizza parlay on the afternoon games that GB destroyed. For my inconvenience they gave me two free bets that I can use this week and next. So this week’s freebie is a five leg money line parlay of favorites: TB, SEA, CLV, NE, and GB. It pays 3/1.

Still working out this week’s teaser, DN8R

Ok teaser fans, I modified my Primetime teaser a bit this week as I didn’t care for the MNF line.

Here goes for some pizzas.....
6.5 point teaser with Was (-3.5 —> +3), Den (-6 —-> +1/2), LAR ( -3.5 —> +3), SF ( -3 —-> +3.5), and KC ( -3.5 —-> +3).

Yeah, kinda chalky, but it’s week 2; lotsa unknowns, DN8R

just announced Giants get Saqoun Barkley back tonight, he can be a difference maker. Doesn't mean he will make one tonight

DarthNater wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:16 am Ok teaser fans, I modified my Primetime teaser a bit this week as I didn’t care for the MNF line.

Here goes for some pizzas.....
6.5 point teaser with Was (-3.5 —> +3), Den (-6 —-> +1/2), LAR ( -3.5 —> +3), SF ( -3 —-> +3.5), and KC ( -3.5 —-> +3).

Yeah, kinda chalky, but it’s week 2; lotsa unknowns, DN8R

Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

That’s a nice 7 for 2 pizza winner. Parson and I saw the Washington kicker miss the game winner when we were walking thru the Beau Rivage last Thursday, so it was until after we cashed out our craps session did we hear Washington won outright.

Likewise on Sunday night with KC having a nice lead we both had lengthy hands at our favorite Beau table; only to have to sweat out the last six minutes in Baltimore as the Ravens once again proved a couple of points can make a difference as KC getting 3 was enough to win the final leg of the parlay!

Now it’s on to week 3. Lots of injuries moving the lines, but teasing up the Bucs is tempting especially if a lot of California money moves the line before this game. Otherwise, teasing Ravens and a dog like Washington or LAC, are getting a look

More soon, DN8R

I got my second compensatory Free Bet from William Hill after their computer meltdown the weekend before last. I can’t split it so decided to do a 2 leg teaser with tonight’s Prime time game CAR -8 —-> -1 parlayed with ARZ -7 —-> Pk. Pays 10/14; aka -140.

Full disclosure, I have not seen a lot of either team, kinda flying with one eye, and didn’t see a third appealing leg as leery of KC and don’t think we’ll have two chalk weekends in a row, DN8R

Win, win, win, pay, pay, pay....

After Carolina cruised on Thursday night, I was tempted to do a John Patrick and play a hedge of Jax +310 to lock up a win. My naked teaser looked shaky as the first half ended with a 109 yard field goal attempt returned for a touchdown. However Arizona righted the ship for the win

That two weeks of winners in a row, DN8R

Great string of wins DarthNater
I enjoy reading your plays as well as the logic/thoughts behind the decisions.



All the best,

Tgold wrote: ↑Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:05 pm Great string of wins DarthNater
I enjoy reading your plays as well as the logic/thoughts behind the decisions.

All the best,

Thanks Tgold, appreciate you reading and responding.

Some plays are more straightforward than others, as this week there are tougher matchups, complicated by a few of last week’s performances, plus we have the media frenzy in New England.

William Hill sent me another free bet that I have to place by midnight Thursday, since I was out of state this past weekend so need to sharpen the pencil. I might do multiple parlays as it can be divided into pieces

DN8R

Well, its that time of the week.

I'm passing on the Thursday night game as not wanting to risk my free play bets on Cincy teased. Plus I'm concerned the Titans-Jets game may be a trap; even a few commentators have liked the Jets this week - go figure? The Bills Moneyline is crazy & KC can't seem to stop a nosebleed; plus they are on the road this weekend, leaving the town open for Heavy & The Flea. The Primetime game for me this week is TB@NE+7. I like parlaying it with the Saints returning to home sweet dome this Sunday paired with GB/Pit. So, seven point teaser: NO -7.5 ---> -1/2, GB -7 -----> Pick'em; and TB -7 -----> Pick'em. Pays 13 for 10.

I should have hit the window last night when NO was -7, oh well, DN8R