147th Kentucky Derby

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Raider
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147th Kentucky Derby

Post by Raider » Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:44 pm

Given that the winner since the points system was created has been the chalk, boxing Essential Quality, Rock your world, Known agenda and Highly Motivated in both the exacta and trifecta would not be a bad starting play. Then using those four with selected longshots (no more than 3) to play around, I am looking at Super stock, Midnight bourbon, Hidden stash and Sainthood. That could change as I drill deeper
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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by jaime1943 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:09 am

Goodmorning Raider,

4/21/2021...Raider can you provide me a link where we can handicapped this race?

Luck at the derby, jaime 1943.

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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by Raider » Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:38 am

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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by jaime1943 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:24 pm

Greetings Raider,

Thank you for the link, i Came up with SAINTHOOD at 25/1...Longshot.

luck to everybody.

jaime1943.

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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by Raider » Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:56 am

if your into breeding check his pedigree. Still he never raced as a 2yo (one of five in that) and his last race was on AW, but when you look at the race...if he fires, should be good. I am not going to make the mistake I made in 19, I have done it five times this year, picked an longshot to come in second, and the SOB's win the friggin race, Right horse, wrong order LOL, got love horse racing
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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by Bankerdude80 » Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:39 pm

To start, I'll be boxing a super with Hot Rod Charlie, Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, and Known Agenda. I'll mix it up a bit with a few other bets and combinations, still looking at the PP's. With Gafflione riding, he could make Soup and Sandwich a contender. I do favor Irad Ortiz Jr and Pletcher's Known Agenda for a win. My gut says it will be Hot Rod Charlie, but then again it could be indigestion. Rock Your World might make into the mix somewhere with his 102 Beyer. Gotta watch out for Baffert and his one horse too. Decision, decisions.
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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by heavy » Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:25 am

I haven't handicapped squat, but there's a horse in the race named Caddo River, and I grew up on the Caddo River. I damn near drowned in that river when I was five years old. Spent just about every day of Summer when I was a kid either fishing or swimming or boating on the Caddo - or all three. No telling how many gallons of Caddo water I've swallowed through the years. So I'd have to drop a couple of bucks on that horse just for shits and giggles. And if Steve Asmussen's training a horse in the race - and he's got a 40-1 longshot in there at the moment - I'd box that pony in the mix somewhere. I made a LOT of money betting on Asmussen trained ponies at Lone Star Park back in the day so there's some sentiment involved. The rest of them? I'd have to look at them. Like Bankerdude, I look at the drivers. I like Ortiz, but I also like Rosario and Geroux. And Geroux is riding my pony - Caddo River - so there you go. Geroux is clearly a French name. Caddo is derived from the French word for "gift." Synchronicity. Gotta love it. Use the Force, Luke. With these big-ass fields anything can happen. My daughter's dog could win the damn race is we could find a dog-sized saddle and a monkey to ride him.
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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by Raider » Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:37 am

h for what its worth both Midnight Bourbon and Super stock hit my 8.5f board the same way country house did, but not the 9f, the same as commanding curve
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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by Bankerdude80 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 9:21 pm

heavy wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:25 am
I haven't handicapped squat, but there's a horse in the race named Caddo River, and I grew up on the Caddo River. I damn near drowned in that river when I was five years old. Spent just about every day of Summer when I was a kid either fishing or swimming or boating on the Caddo - or all three. No telling how many gallons of Caddo water I've swallowed through the years. So I'd have to drop a couple of bucks on that horse just for shits and giggles.
Sentimentality aside, Caddo River is now out of the Derby.
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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by Raider » Mon Apr 26, 2021 10:16 am

I think he will be in the other legs, keepinginmind was on my radar a few weeks ago. That makes, I think 9 that have dropped out
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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by heavy » Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:15 pm

Sentimentality aside, Caddo River is now out of the Derby.
Sentimentality aside, I left Arkansas for a reason - although I do miss those float trips down the river and frying up fresh-caught pan fish on the sand/gravel bars on overnight camping trips. However, at the time I left Arkansas the only employment opportunities were for billet cutters harvesting pine trees in the deep woods or chicken pluckers in the poultry plants and neither suited my disposition. I had my eye on bigger things and got the hell out of the State as soon as I turned 18, and never looked back. It's always interesting to go back to my old home town and visit with friends from high school who never left the State. Hell, there are some there who have probably never been out of the county. I've been to 47 of the 50 states and half a dozen foreign countries. I've seen things they've only seen in National Geographic. Hell, I've even read books. Most of them haven't cracked a book since they got out of 11th grade. Still, when you spent the first eighteen years of your life somewhere it's in your DNA.

I'll be in Vegas when the race goes off. If I have time I may get a bet down. At this point I just don't know. I've made a few notes on a 3X5 card on some horses to box. We'll see.
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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by Tgold » Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:10 am

Thx Raider for offering ur opinion above. As u prob know the Post positions will be drawn Tuesday(27) at 11am so maybe we will have more clarity.
If EQ stays at current 5/2 (or between 2/1--3/1), it will be my wager to Win as I think it is simply the superior horse.

I also like Rock Your World to finish in top 3 /certainly in the money. Good ideas above on boxing the EX/Tri as I may follow ur suggestion exactly as stated. Hopefully your top selections will avoid starting from the 1st/ 17th Pole Positions *.

*The inside, No. 1 post is considered the worst possible draw. The No. 17 post is 0-for-38, the only one 1-20 to have not produced a winner.
Last year's winner, Authentic, broke from the No. 18 gate. The highest percentage of winners come from the fifth and 10th posts.



Raider--Keep us updated if your thoughts change.

Much appreciated/Thx in advance,
All the best,
Tgold

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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by Raider » Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:23 am

Thx, it's the three wild cards that I am chewing on right now, HRC, Helium, and Sainthood.
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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by Tgold » Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:54 am

2021 Kentucky Derby post positions/Odds @ 4/27 pm

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Known Agenda Irad Ortiz Jr. Todd A. Pletcher 6-1
2 Like the King Drayden Van Dyke Wesley A. Ward 50-1
3 Brooklyn Strong Umberto Rispoli Daniel Velazquez 50-1
4 Keepmeinmind David Cohen Robertino Diodoro 50-1
5 Sainthood C Lanerie Todd A. Pletcher 50-1
6 O Besos Marcelino Pedroza Greg Foley 20-1
7 Mandaloun Florent Geroux Brad H. Cox 15-1
8 Medina Spirit John Velazquez Bob Baffert 15-1
9 Hot Rod Charlie Flav Prat Doug F. O'Neill 8-1
10 Midnight Bourbon Mike Smith Steven M. Asmussen 20-1
11 Dynamic One Jo Ortiz Todd A. Pletcher 20-1
12 Helium Julien Leparoux Mark E. Casse 50-1
13 Hidden Stash Rafael Bejarano Victoria H. Oliver 50-1
14 Essential Quality Luis Saez Brad H. Cox 2-1
15 Rock Your World Joel Rosario John W. Sadler 5-1
16 King Fury Brian Hernandez, Jr. Ken McPeek 20-1
17 Highly Motivated Javier Castellano Chad C. Brown 10-1
18 Superstock Ricar Santana Jr. Steven M. Asmussen 30-1
19 Soup and Sandwich Ty Gaffalione Mark E. Casse 30-1
20 Bourbonic Kend Carmouche Todd A. Pletcher 30-1


* FYI to Darth et al Nevada handicappers. William Hill Sports Book is giving a K Derby Mint Julip Commemorative Glass for everyone making a >=$20 Wager. Most Nevada casinos are participating in this promo.

Good Luck To All,
All the best,
Tgold

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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by Raider » Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:36 pm

Wow, Essential Quality and Rock Your World side by side, the reported early speed inside of them, EQ can rate, can Rock your world, a Not raced as a two year old (one of three), might have to prove he is a Real Horse, and end up at the end of the pack.

Known agenda in the 1 hole, but this is the second time with the new starting gate, doesn't need to lead, should come out of the first turn still on the rail, and not boxed in.

Highly Motivated in the 17th hole, with S and S another not raced as a two year old the only real speed on his outside Just behind the leaders on the outside, not a bad place to be, but will be wide

Sainthood is likely to get boxed in before the first turn, but might break out on the back, swing wide on the second turn???

Hidden stash (under the second drawer) IF he can tuck in behind EQ and RYW until the back strech , got a shot for the top four

Only three horses have had the same jock for all their starts, Mandaloun, Dynamic One, and Highly Motivated.

I look at five performance factors in both the 8.5f and the 9F races. I want to see which horse hit in both, this year none did, hidden stash is the closest longshot, EQ is the closest fav.

Betting in horse racing is like betting in craps, going across, horn, and a few select hop bets on the box numbers. one roll only, all the buy in on the table, one roll, then you walk.

The bets I started this thread with were like placing the inside, with no hops. Now its time to go across, hopping the hardways and a few others, the horn is the superfecta
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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by Parson » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:24 pm

Sainthood by a length, Why? Ima Parson, he is a Saint.
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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by jaime1943 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:58 pm

Greeting Parson,

You are a winner, with that pick of sainthood, that was my pick two weeks ago.

luck at the Derby.

jaime 1943.

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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by Tgold » Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:31 am

Thx Raider. Good summation above. I liked the craps analogy.

"..Betting in horse racing is like betting in craps, going across, horn, and a few select hop bets on the box numbers. one roll only, all the buy in on the table, one roll, then you walk.

The bets I started this thread with were like placing the inside, with no hops. Now its time to go across, hopping the hardways and a few others, the horn is the superfecta.."
All the best,
Tgold

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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by Raider » Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:02 am

Tgold wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:31 am
Thx Raider. Good summation above. I liked the craps analogy.

"..Betting in horse racing is like betting in craps, going across, horn, and a few select hop bets on the box numbers. one roll only, all the buy in on the table, one roll, then you walk.

The bets I started this thread with were like placing the inside, with no hops. Now its time to go across, hopping the hardways and a few others, the horn is the superfecta.."
You'll love this then, when your the shooter, your the horse. People bet on your, they make money, then strut around like they "won". To me, wining the bet isn't winning the race. But at least at the track no one throws rocks at the horse. I had this dim bulb put a stack of reds right in front of my landing zone, smiling ear to ear. I turned my bets off, told the box man this counted. Knocked his stack down, 4, 3. he was on the pass line.
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Re: 147th Kentucky Derby

Post by Tgold » Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:07 am

Good one Raider, lol.

Im starting to finalize my picks and for the most part agree with your orig thoughts on top four. My indecision is where to plug 9-HRC and 10-Midnight bourb as I give each extra credit because they received a favorable post. Plus I like MB jockey Mike Smith/consider him the best jockey in this event (w Johnny V a close second).

10-Midnight Bour w Mike Smith has all top three finishes in seven races, coupled with a favorable PP makes it difficult to not put in a tri.

I think 9-HRC (Hot Rod Charlie---Not Hillary Rodham Clinton), will finish in the money (<=5th). However, I havnt been as high on him as others originating back to the first day odds were presented. Until I saw the Post Positions I was considering to omit from any exacta. I may still slide him down into 4th or 5th best. Although I wouldnt put in a straight Ex I will likely have him in any box for ex,tri, or super.

I think if 1-Known Agenda can get off the rail by third furlong he will be ok. Im not sure if the new gates will make much difference for him( or any others). Meaning I agree the new gates are better than previous gates but the effect on the finish will be the same across all horses so wont be a difference maker. Just my opinion as im not a gate expert.

I like that EQ/Ryw at 14th/15th respectively should get a similar path and have room to do what they want. So shouldnt be any excuses and the physically superior horse will prevail. Hopefully, they wont focus on each other too much early on/waste gas.

As of now (11am 4/29) Im ranking as follows:

14-EQ,
15-RYW,
1-Known Agenda,
9-HRC,
10-Midnight Bourb,
17-Highly Motivated


Best of luck to all,
All the best,
Tgold

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