Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

NP irish. As always I enjoyed our conversation.

Kelph

I came here expecting to read a serious response!!

Thanks for the laugh gargoil. I leave with a smile.

Kelph

irish, My response seems to have vanished so I'll try it again. Your last comment is disagreeing with something I didn't say. "Never" was not used or implied and regardless of your use of the word never I specifically addressed how a DI would enter the long term. My opinions and musings ma...

irish, I'm leaning towards bobr's response sort of but without tying it to bad luck and dollars lost. I'd say long term is reached when the results of variance cease to have a meaningful statistical affect on the frequency of the cumulative numbers that have for all practical purposes achieved their...

Yep irish.

Kelph

Just a quick follow-up on the question regarding whether the math says a player will lose and which will no doubt get me into trouble. A distinction needs to be made between the random frequency of numbers based on all numbers and the frequency of those affecting an individual player (specifically D...

irish, The math is based on every roll of the dice and I think if one were to agree that the math says you'll lose in the long run you would have to be betting every roll of the dice without affecting the probability expectation. Are you (the general you) DI enough to affect it long term? Remember e...

Never read a good explanation of it including what Kennedy himself wrote. I had copied his notes plus whatever else I could find from other interested players some years back. I'd have to go digging for something that leaves more questions than answers.

Kelph

Mmmm, so this number info was generated by once around the table? What are the shooters like? Randies, setters, DI's? I would think you have a mix at best and more likely mostly randies unless you brought your own little group. This info is a start but if there are just a limited number of shooters ...

Sure appears that Silverthorne has many different winning systems. I may just be a jaded old Craps' player but wouldn't you just need one good winning system if it worked as advertised. Possibly one for the Do, the Don't and Choppy if one wanted to play anywhere, anytime. So any more than three winn...

Further, if having them 'off' for one-roll is good; would having them off for two, three, or four rolls be even better? Beyond the discussion of whether this works or doesn't I'd consider the psychological benefit of the one roll as oppose to the mechanical self inducing semi-paralysis of turned of...

Of course WC's if it filters through with zero 7/11 interference is a BIG if. Long term it's not mathematically a winning play though it can produce profit in the short term........or dig a quick hole. The win, guaranteed or not, is too small a shovel compared to the size shovel digging the hole on ...

I say "thank you God, you'll get your cut on Sunday." After all, a deal is a deal.

Kelph

Let's see if this works - Kelph

Not sure if this is what you want but I'll look through more of what I've squirreled away over the years. - Kelph Professor H's Don't Pass Strategy Professor H's method of play on the Don't is intended to accomplish two things: (1) playing time, and (2) occasional comparatively large wins. Lay odds ...

MP, This weekend when I have some time I'll sit, think, and write some of my basic "things to watch, note, analyze, define and decide, and what I do once the play(s) are in motion. You've lumped a lot of things together under the RR stuff and while I don't personally buy all of it as gospel &qu...

MP, We agree that “random-bets” mean non-advantaged negative-expectation wagers. MP – “What we don’t agree on is whether or not random-outcome variance is sustainably exploitable and bankroll-accretive over a reasonable number of in-casino trials. You say it is, and I say it isn’t.” That is certainl...

OK, just exactly do you mean by randomly bet? I can think of several different meanings so an explanation would be helpful. Sorry MP we do play in the short term and while results may and in fact do mirror long term results they can and do deviate in either direction and sometimes do so to the extre...

OK MP, enough of your sex foreplay photos. Interesting question Heavy and I'd like to toss in my take on it. The math is important because one needs to understand how probability, odds, casino payouts, volatility and frequency come together in the perfect casino world. This knowledge is every player...

Agree with Heavy. In days past when I'd bet the line it depended on the shooter. Sometimes it was almost nothing but Points being established and hit with few box numbers in-between or lots of box numbers and the Point just sitting there untouched. I now prefer to by-pass the CO and just Place which...