Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

WC, could you give a couple of examples? I think I am following correctly, just want to be sure.

East Coast

Actually simple concept.......You make ONE DON'T FLAT BET if it filters through with zero 7/11
interference ,you immediately ,as in heart beat fast , prior to the next roll of the dice PLACE BET A DO SIDE WAGER to offset the exposure to loosing the DON'T BET to YOUR # BEING ROLLED......

For example as A CPA stated $25 FLAT BET on the Don't Pass ( could also be on the DON'T COME )

Should the next roll of the DICE show BOX NUMBER % 5,YOU WOULD PLACE WAGER $20 on the BOX # 5

You have now BOOKED THE HOUSE on that number.

There is now a SPREAD between the $25 DARK SIDE WAGER and the RIGHT SIDE $20 WAGER.
Should THE SEVEN SHOW prior to the BOX # 5 SHOWING YOU ARE AHEAD the GRAND SUM OF $5

EXAMPLE
$25
_$20
......
+ $5

SHOULD THE BOX # 5 SHOW prior to the SEVEN BEING ROLLED :

EXAMPLE
$20 WAGERED on the 5 pays $7 to every $5 wagered.

$20/5 = 4 4 X $7 = $28

THUS $28 (-) $25 = $3.00

I suggested to multiply the RISK thus THE REWARD by TEN

$25 DARK SIDE WAGER elevates to $250 >> The $20 DO SIDE WAGER increases to $200

SAME MATH JOSY ADDED A ZERO.........

Some may not agree that the risk offers a large enough spread......However after it is offset
what is the risk.

The math works out for the other BOX NUMBERS..........

W C

Thanks WC for the clarification.

Of course WC's

if it filters through with zero 7/11 interference

is a BIG if.

Long term it's not mathematically a winning play though it can produce profit in the short term........or dig a quick hole. The win, guaranteed or not, is too small a shovel compared to the size shovel digging the hole on a loss.

Now if you're a DI that can avoid throwing those CO 7s & 11s more power to you.

Kelph

Permission to approach the bench.

May we compare POSSIBILITY.. Vs .. PROBABILITY .. Vs ..ACTUALITY

Perhaps we could make a comparison to say A TOLL ROAD

If possible , could we perhaps COMPARE THE TOLLS EXTRACTED BY :

THE NEW JERSEY TURNPIKE AUTHORITY Vs THE GARDEN STATE PARKWAY
>>> <<<<<<< >>>>>>>>>>>

New Jersey Turnpike - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The New Jersey Turnpike (shortened to N J T P and colloquially known to New Jerseyans as "the Turnpike") is a toll road in New Jersey, maintained by the New ..
(Directions and location are related to "What Exit" ).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_Turnpike
...........................................................................
New Jersey Turnpike (I-95)

Descriptive history and current conditions on the New Jersey Turnpike (I-95) through New Jersey.

www.nycroads.com/roads/nj-turnpike/


Garden State Parkway - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Garden State Parkway (GSP) is a 172.4-mile (277-km) limited-access toll parkway that stretches the length of New Jersey from the New York line at ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garden_State_Parkway

One charges TOLL prior to entering the road ......The GARDEN STATE PARKWAY

THE OTHER CHARGES TOLL UPON EXITING THE ROAD WAY ...THE N J TURNPIKE

A certain % of vehicles do not finish their journey for some various number of reasons.
( May be fun to list the probable causes .....That I leave cometary fodder )

Fact is MOST VEHICLES ACTUALLY MAKE THE shortened JOURNEY
even REPEATEDLY perhaps once or twice a day..........

The twice daily RUSH HOUR BOTTLENECK and
OCCASIONAL Fender Bending crowd pleasing DEMOLITION DERBY aside.
It is still an option available. Admittedly not without SOME TOLL or RISK

Both are highly commuter approved and preferred to OLD U S HIGHWAY 1 or Route # 9

With HEDGING THE DON'T BET ,you have an ever present danger of crashing prior to getting ON.
The OFFSETTING WAGER extracts a RELATIVELY HIGH TOLL and THE SPREAD may seem a miniscule
PAY LOAD . HOWEVER MINISCULE the PAY OUT , it is a guarantee if the wager is left in place.

Just Saying

W C

I agree with Kelph and MP. I do not recommend that action, but if you were going to take down an existing don't bet that hd reached a number and would let me pay you the amount of the don't bet, as I have been able to do a few times, then I am in a win/win position.

I would never make a don't bet soleing hopping to get to a position to hedge the don't.

Noah

Noah

The jury is always out on the subject.........

For the weekend player in an elbow crowded joint,at times the DON;t SIDE seem to PAY MORE OFTEN.

Even though I may not elect to take down a D/P or D/C wager THE OPTION REMAINS. Viva La OPTION

Noah...Would you PURCHASE an ESTABLISHED HEDGE WAGER and at what PRICE?

Not that I would sell the TOTAL WAGER after it having survived the "7/Yo FILTER "....just wondering.

If the greater # of ZEROS on the right side more attractive, is there a number of zeros that are TOO MANY

If $25 is OK.and $250 works is $2,500 also in the budget

Were we at the same table with a $2,500 D/C ,would you pony up the $2,000 for the other side of the equation and we split the profit 70% / 30 % after subtracting our $$$$$$$$$ at RISK ?

Just ME ASKING

W C

When I have done i, the price aw the same the dealers would have given them. Doesn't usually happen. Don't players are often in the corner and I'm next to the stick.

Noah

O K ----so here I am ,"Little jack DON'T PLAYER " a standing in the inside corner...........

I stick in my thumb and pull out an INDICATOR what says: "_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
then you run around the HOOK and the STRAIGHT OUT and make the BUY........... THEN if the
$2,500 is lost to the BOX NUMBER rolled next ROLL.............................

Would you like to buy another

yes because I paid you $2,500 and bought the number for$2,000 so I made a decent profit on one roll!

Got another don't to sell me?

Noah

What a sport.

W C

UPN, I am not a professional but I do play craps for fun . I promised my wife that I would never shoot dice and I only play the Dont Pass-nothing else.

Comeout naturals are a bane for the Dont player. I tell everyone that laying odds is the best way to approach the darkside, but I do not lay odds.

I have lost many times to long strings of comeout 7s and 11s. But I think of it as just being a part of the way , I WANT TO PLAY. I think of comeout 7s and 11s as "Hard Rain" that is fallin`.

After getting past the comeout roll, losing to the point being made happens quite often , also. The 4 and 10 which are hard numbers to hit suddenly become easy pickins` for the shooter.

Last weekend my wife and I took a trip up to Metropolis, IL and then up to Harrahs St. Louis . At both places it seemed that comeout naturals ruled the day, but also no shooter could make a point.

The smart dont player would have moved to the DC but I just kept making my Dont Pass wagers , playing my stubborn way .

I think the main thing is to play the way you want to play and then go from there---take the good with the bad, don`t get too excited , play within your bankroll and have fun.

Dylanfreake

I was at Harrahs St Louis for a very short time Sunday, stopped on my way to Ameristar. Tables were for sure cold.

Next time you plan a trip to St Louis, let me know, and I'll buy lunch.

6dollar6

6dollar6,

We made a quick trip to Metropolis and St Louis for the Harrahs promotion plus Gail had a travel voucher from St Louis. I had never been to either place . Gail had been to both and likes St Louis over Metropolis. I liked Metropolis.

Gail hated that Harrahs sold the St.Louis property . I usually don`t go on Gail`s trips to casinos but since I am getting older , I have given in and have been going with her. Since May , I have been helping a blind Korean-American lady with container gardening so my time going to Tunica has been limited due to gardening. She calls me The Master Gardener so how can I refuse that?

Dylanfreake wrote:... Comeout naturals are a bane for the Dont player. ... I have lost many times to long strings of comeout 7s and 11s. But I think of it as just being a part of the way , I WANT TO PLAY. I think of comeout 7s and 11s as "Hard Rain" that is fallin`. ...

...it seemed that comeout naturals ruled the day, but also no shooter could make a point. The smart dont player would have moved to the DC but I just kept making my Dont Pass wagers , playing my stubborn way .
...

This scenario is the basis and reason for my Don't strategy--I fear the naturals. I *never* bet the DP unless I'm the shooter and I wanna get a sense of how the dice feel after I've just got to an empty table--since I'm the only shooter, I gotta bet the DP line. I'll usually use a $10-20-30-50 progression in this situation. I'll set for the CO with the V-4 and roll for a 4/10, and then set for whatever corresponding 7s set is appropriate to avoid the point (S6, C6, or 3/4, as Heavy outlines in his seminar).

When I'm betting against other shooters though, I'll let the CO roll establish a point first before I bet the Don't--as a DC. That way, I'm exposed to a natural only once per shooter. Repetitive naturals won't kill me, because I won't have to re-up my Don't bet. I'll play the DC with two different betting strategies depending on sheer funk... $10-20-30-50 progression, or $10 all the time, betting once only if a 6/8 becomes the point I want to avoid, betting $10 DC twice if a 5/9 is my point, and betting $10 DC three times if a 4/10 becomes my point. On repeat points and elevens I cease betting and just wait for a decision on my bets.

Chicken Little. What can I say?

UPNremix,

this is my first post here, but not my first rodeo; so, let me answer both your questions. Your second question about the old guys sounds like they came up with a low risk method that meets the casinos comp requirements for them to get a buffet. Look in the "Dice Doctor" by Sam Grafstein for low cost/low risk strategies.

The more important question of whether betting the don't is worth taking the risk attached to the come out role has a simple answer: Yes. But, only by limiting your risk.

The size of your DP bet dictates the size of the hedge. I will use a $20 bet. Lay both the 4 & 10 for $20 each. Depending on casino policy, the vig will be $1 or $2. Then, bet $3 on both a 4 & 10 hardway. Now you are risking $8 versus a seven on the come out. Your worst case is now a soft 4 or 10 which costs you $23, but does leave you with a favorable point.

Remember to take the hedge down once the point is established, and make a $20 don't come before the next roll. This is a free roll since a seven will pay off your DP.

The size of your bankroll and your ability to take risk are important here. Your DP and DC bet must be large. To illustrate this, I want you to think back on Dark Siders you have seen with $25 or $50 bets with big odds bets next to them. They bet small rather than accept a smaller hedged risk. Then they piled up chips to get a potential mixed return of less that 85 percent.

Their initial risk is what you outlined in your original post while you have hedged the risk of a seven down 60 percent ($8). The risk of the soft 4 or 10 left you with a good point and a DC free of risk of a seven. Your biggest risk is now a repeater, but that is the same risk you had anyway. Your reward is being able to place larger wrong bets with the best chances of winning, and they pay even money!

grafstein,

Are you laying any odds?

What percentage of your bankroll are you risking each session?

I did not specify a bankroll nor a session size that the bettor should start with. We're all different in what we have, and, more importantly, in how well we stick to our own money management plan.

The one thing I would not do is take odds. Once a bettor has made it past the CO, the odds portion of his total bet dilutes his total return (on a wrong bet).

This last part is the reason for hedging the DP. You want as large a DP and DC bet as possible because you are an "odds-on favorite" once past the CO.

Using odds on the darkside is an age's old quesion that divides. The legend is that Nick the Greek said before dying, if he had it to do over he would not lay odds. Grafstein, I would disagree that odds diminish the return. In the old days and on the old boards we had a feloow darksider who was a Professor in California, Professor H was his handle. He did a ton of math work and decided to lay odds and he did so on a progression.

I lay odds most of the time. To me, and from what I remember the Proffesor H and MP detailing is that it is beneficial. Simply put, why not lay more money against a point when you have a math advantage on the flat bet? Yes, I know odds do not have an advantage, but I still believe in the laying of odds.

Good Luck

Golfer