Hello All,
I am new to the forum as well as Dice Influencing and have only been playing for about 3 months now. Obviously being new to the game my results at the casino have been rather inconsistent and although I have had a few good hands including a 30+ roll from straight out (I only play straight out if I cannot get any of the other preferred spots) I quite often find myself not making it past 5-6 rolls. I’m wondering what would be some recommended or favourite low risk strategies when betting on yourself that would allow you to expand on your bets if the hand starts to develop into something bigger?
Also as a side note I would just like to say that this forum is an absolute gold mine of craps information! and I very much look forward to becoming an active member here.
Low risk strategy for someone new to DI
Moderators: 220Inside, DarthNater
Re: Low risk strategy for someone new to DI
Canuk,
Welcome to the board!
What you are asking for is the 'Holy Grail' of dice influencers or actually all Crapsters..
You will find discussions about this all over the forum..
The whole article by Heavy below is great...Pay special attention of (OCHM) One Hit Can't Miss.
Look around for Heavy's Heat seeker method.
Memo
Re: Classic Articles from Heavy's Archives
Letting the Dice Decide – When to Bet What Numbers
by Steve "Heavy" Haltom
Players often ask me which numbers I like to bet or how I decide which numbers to bet when a table is choppy. While those are two very different questions, I go about answering them much in the same way.
Many of you have heard me say I’ll bet the Six and Eight on anyone who touches the dice. That’s pretty much true. It’s also true that sometimes I’m combining that Six and Eight Place Bet with a Don’t Pass or Don’t Come Bet and playing my favorite Hybird strategy – the One Hit – Can’t Miss. OHCM, for those of you who have been living under a Freeway Overpass in Seattle for the last nine months, is a strategy that combines roughly equal sized bets on the Don’t Pass or Don’t Come with Place Bets on the Six and Eight. Once established, if you get one hit on the six or eight you are guaranteed a small win for the hand. From that point on you just sit back and collect on as many sixes and eights as you can before the Seven (hopefully) rolls and you win your Don’t bet.
I bet the Six and Eight on every player because it has one of the lowest house edges of any bet on the table – 1.51%. Between the two bets there are 10 combinations of the dice that will win for me versus 6 combinations of the dice that add up to the Seven and a loss. I like those odds, so I’m all over them.
So where do I go from there? The answer is – I let the dice decide. Now, there are a couple of ways to do that. One is to Come Bet, but I don’t like Come Betting for a couple of reasons. First off, I could lose my Come Bet to a 2, 3, or 12 craps. Secondly, if I get a Come Bet established it only pays Even Money. In order to get paid correct odds I have to risk additional money. Who wants to do that? Instead, I want to Place Bet the numbers. I do that by using my version of what Sam Grafstein called a “Converted Come Bet.” Grafstein would wait until a number rolled, and then he would Place Bet that number. My strategy is similar, but I want to make sure that the number that’s rolling is repeating at a higher than statistically normal expectation. In order to do that, I have to keep a rolling track of decisions measured against the following standards:
The Four and Ten should roll TWICE within Five Rolls. The Four can roll Twice, The Ten can roll Twice, or the Four and Ten can each roll once. They simply have to roll within a span of five rolls. The closer together those decisions come the better. Once I see that happen, I’ll bet Buy BOTH numbers. Why both? Because after the commission is paid the Four and Ten pay 2 – 1, which means a hit on either one essentially “pays for” both. Get that one hit and you’re ready to score a big profit on the next hit!
What about the Five and Nine? Well, the Five and Nine have to stand alone. The Payoff on those bets is 7 – 5, and they carry a 4% house edge so they’re not nearly as good of bets as the Four and Ten Buy bets, but when the shooter is banging out Fives and Nines at a higher than expected rate of return – who cares? Bet them! So I’m looking for two Fives or two Nines to roll in fewer than eight rolls, and I really want to see them pounding out closer together than that. If I see the dice roll 6 – 5 – 4 – 6 – 5 you can bet I’m going to bet the Five after the second one rolls. If there’d been five more numbers between those two fives I might have been more reluctant to do so. The same goes for betting the Nine.
At the end of the day it comes down to this. Betting dice is like betting the ponies. You should only bet on a winning horse. Never bet on a number because you think it’s “due.” Bet it because it’s winning. That "due" number hasn't even gotten out of the starting gate yet. Meanwhile, the rest of the horses have rounded the bend and are headed down the home stretch. Bet the ones that are winning.
Let the dice tell you what numbers to bet.
Welcome to the board!
What you are asking for is the 'Holy Grail' of dice influencers or actually all Crapsters..
You will find discussions about this all over the forum..
The whole article by Heavy below is great...Pay special attention of (OCHM) One Hit Can't Miss.
Look around for Heavy's Heat seeker method.
Memo
Re: Classic Articles from Heavy's Archives
Letting the Dice Decide – When to Bet What Numbers
by Steve "Heavy" Haltom
Players often ask me which numbers I like to bet or how I decide which numbers to bet when a table is choppy. While those are two very different questions, I go about answering them much in the same way.
Many of you have heard me say I’ll bet the Six and Eight on anyone who touches the dice. That’s pretty much true. It’s also true that sometimes I’m combining that Six and Eight Place Bet with a Don’t Pass or Don’t Come Bet and playing my favorite Hybird strategy – the One Hit – Can’t Miss. OHCM, for those of you who have been living under a Freeway Overpass in Seattle for the last nine months, is a strategy that combines roughly equal sized bets on the Don’t Pass or Don’t Come with Place Bets on the Six and Eight. Once established, if you get one hit on the six or eight you are guaranteed a small win for the hand. From that point on you just sit back and collect on as many sixes and eights as you can before the Seven (hopefully) rolls and you win your Don’t bet.
I bet the Six and Eight on every player because it has one of the lowest house edges of any bet on the table – 1.51%. Between the two bets there are 10 combinations of the dice that will win for me versus 6 combinations of the dice that add up to the Seven and a loss. I like those odds, so I’m all over them.
So where do I go from there? The answer is – I let the dice decide. Now, there are a couple of ways to do that. One is to Come Bet, but I don’t like Come Betting for a couple of reasons. First off, I could lose my Come Bet to a 2, 3, or 12 craps. Secondly, if I get a Come Bet established it only pays Even Money. In order to get paid correct odds I have to risk additional money. Who wants to do that? Instead, I want to Place Bet the numbers. I do that by using my version of what Sam Grafstein called a “Converted Come Bet.” Grafstein would wait until a number rolled, and then he would Place Bet that number. My strategy is similar, but I want to make sure that the number that’s rolling is repeating at a higher than statistically normal expectation. In order to do that, I have to keep a rolling track of decisions measured against the following standards:
The Four and Ten should roll TWICE within Five Rolls. The Four can roll Twice, The Ten can roll Twice, or the Four and Ten can each roll once. They simply have to roll within a span of five rolls. The closer together those decisions come the better. Once I see that happen, I’ll bet Buy BOTH numbers. Why both? Because after the commission is paid the Four and Ten pay 2 – 1, which means a hit on either one essentially “pays for” both. Get that one hit and you’re ready to score a big profit on the next hit!
What about the Five and Nine? Well, the Five and Nine have to stand alone. The Payoff on those bets is 7 – 5, and they carry a 4% house edge so they’re not nearly as good of bets as the Four and Ten Buy bets, but when the shooter is banging out Fives and Nines at a higher than expected rate of return – who cares? Bet them! So I’m looking for two Fives or two Nines to roll in fewer than eight rolls, and I really want to see them pounding out closer together than that. If I see the dice roll 6 – 5 – 4 – 6 – 5 you can bet I’m going to bet the Five after the second one rolls. If there’d been five more numbers between those two fives I might have been more reluctant to do so. The same goes for betting the Nine.
At the end of the day it comes down to this. Betting dice is like betting the ponies. You should only bet on a winning horse. Never bet on a number because you think it’s “due.” Bet it because it’s winning. That "due" number hasn't even gotten out of the starting gate yet. Meanwhile, the rest of the horses have rounded the bend and are headed down the home stretch. Bet the ones that are winning.
Let the dice tell you what numbers to bet.
Re: Low risk strategy for someone new to DI
Well, Memo covered just about everything I would have covered. Look, if you'll just remember that two out of three Pass Line points that are established will LOSE that should tell you everything you need to know about betting on Randy. I don't CARE that a Pass Line bet is the cost you have to pay to get to bet the ATS. The ATS is a long run bankroll drain anyway, with a house edge up close to 8% on the Small and Tall, and over 20% on the ALL. It's a long term loser. Don't bet it on anyone except a proven DI and yourself, if you can hit it. On Randy, think in terms of playing the Don'ts or One Hit - Can't Miss. If one of them catches a hand it's easy to transition to the right side with OHCM simply by pressing up and out on your Six and Eight once they are paid for. On DI's - if you'll chart the table and watch those guys to see what numbers they repeat frequently (most all DI's have a dominant number they repeat) just focus your action on that number. There's nothing that says you have to bet inside, outside, even numbers, etc. I frequently see a guy who tosses a shit-ton of Nines and I'll just start out with a $35 Nine and nothing else on him. First hit pays $50 for $1 and I'll press it to $50 and lock up $34. I have $50 action with $1 of Sevens exposure. The next hit pays me $70 and I press to $75 and take back $45 for $44 profit and a $75 free bet. The next hit pays $105 and I'm in black chip collection mode. Same bet. From there it's press to 150 - collect - 350 - collect - 750 - collect 1050 - fat city again. Orange chips. Maybe time to regress and lock up $600, taking it back down to $150 and see if the hand continues. No need to get greedy at this point in your career. But don't stand around TUMA (which stands for thumb up my ass) on a hot hand. Get some money on the table instead of saying to yourself "he CAN'T throw another Four." Guess what. He damn sure can.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: Low risk strategy for someone new to DI
To me your asking about betting suggests that you are new to the game of craps as well as the art of DI. The first steps on the DI journey is the first day of school. The amount of bankroll and the distance to the casino are key factors. With a Bankroll of less than 1k and a casino under an hour away, no skill with the dice or the game and a low amount of table time, you are David.
The Slingshot
1. After the point is established, 1 unit field, 1 unit come. Zero Risk, just like the pass and the don't pass , $1 on the midnight on the come out .
2a. Field loses, come moves. Full RISk Wait for decision. If the come bet win on shooter X, count your blessing and wait for the next shooter. If your
the shooter reload.
2b Field wins, two decisions
1. winings and bet to the rail, one come bet in action, zero risk, two decisons
a. 1st hit, reload with field/com or place both units. .
2. Full Risk, if come is four or 10, place the inside sisters, 6 & 8 increases amout at risk, 5 & 9 do not, Spliting the sisters increase amount at risk.
a. 1st hit collect, 1/2 risk
b. 2nd hit, press that number or get a new one. 1/2 Risk
c. 3rd hit collect. zero risk, four units in action, zero risk.
When you get to where your first bet spread is paid for, just go with you basic bets
This is the slowest way to lose your money as you learn the most important skill for DI, DISCPLINE
This my first bet when I come to the table and havn't been there for a full lap. It's also the bet I Use when I think the sevens coming and I want to clear the table before it shows, but still be in the game.
The first day of school, I had to sing my ABC's
The Dice Doctor by Sam Grafstein
So You Want to be a Gamble, basic and advanced Craps by John Patrick
those are the letters of art of betting, singing them is dancing with lady luck. The best way to do that....
Download Wincraps, and buy the program. Run though hotbits 1,2,3 (that's about 30,000 rolls) When your done with those, you will get a better understanding of the pattrens of random and start learning how to surf its waves.
first day of school and I give you homework.
second day will be in about six months
The Slingshot
1. After the point is established, 1 unit field, 1 unit come. Zero Risk, just like the pass and the don't pass , $1 on the midnight on the come out .
2a. Field loses, come moves. Full RISk Wait for decision. If the come bet win on shooter X, count your blessing and wait for the next shooter. If your
the shooter reload.
2b Field wins, two decisions
1. winings and bet to the rail, one come bet in action, zero risk, two decisons
a. 1st hit, reload with field/com or place both units. .
2. Full Risk, if come is four or 10, place the inside sisters, 6 & 8 increases amout at risk, 5 & 9 do not, Spliting the sisters increase amount at risk.
a. 1st hit collect, 1/2 risk
b. 2nd hit, press that number or get a new one. 1/2 Risk
c. 3rd hit collect. zero risk, four units in action, zero risk.
When you get to where your first bet spread is paid for, just go with you basic bets
This is the slowest way to lose your money as you learn the most important skill for DI, DISCPLINE
This my first bet when I come to the table and havn't been there for a full lap. It's also the bet I Use when I think the sevens coming and I want to clear the table before it shows, but still be in the game.
The first day of school, I had to sing my ABC's
The Dice Doctor by Sam Grafstein
So You Want to be a Gamble, basic and advanced Craps by John Patrick
those are the letters of art of betting, singing them is dancing with lady luck. The best way to do that....
Download Wincraps, and buy the program. Run though hotbits 1,2,3 (that's about 30,000 rolls) When your done with those, you will get a better understanding of the pattrens of random and start learning how to surf its waves.
first day of school and I give you homework.
second day will be in about six months
Physics Trumps Probability
Re: Low risk strategy for someone new to DI
Thank you very much for the responses guys, this is exactly the information that I was looking for! Right now I have total bankroll of about 15k so I can afford to take some loses, and fully expect to while I learn to influence the dice, I’m just trying to minimize them. One benefit is that I live 15min from the casino and I’m able to play 1-2 times a week so I’m getting a decent amount of table time, as well as practicing for approximately 1-2hrs a night logging rolls in bone tracker and working on my toss. I hoping to be able to take a class with heavy at some point it’s just finding the time to travel down from The Great White North (Canada). Another question for you guys regarding the OHCM. I used this strategy the other night at the casino and got knocked off the DP on the come out roll approx 8-9 times. After that I continued to play the strategy the way it is described but without DP hedge and had better success (I know technically is not a OHCM without the DP bet). Would you guys have switched to another strategy sooner or stuck with it? I feel like I know the answer lol but I’m just putting it out there. As for the table it was pretty choppy and there were no hands longer than 12 rolls which seems like decent conditions for using the OHCM but I guess it just wasn’t my night on the DP line.
Thanks again
Thanks again
Re: Low risk strategy for someone new to DI
Canuk,
If you are playing OCHM without the DP...You are actually playing the place 6, 8 that Heavy described above. And as he states, that is a good play. Sounds like you found a strategy to begin a hand that suits you.
Come out 7,11 are frustrating to deal with with DP. Nate calls it 'The sheriff and his deputy.
If you play OCHM and get knocked off, consider waiting until point is established and make a DC bet. All you have to worry about then is the PSO. And they will come.
Memo
If you are playing OCHM without the DP...You are actually playing the place 6, 8 that Heavy described above. And as he states, that is a good play. Sounds like you found a strategy to begin a hand that suits you.
Come out 7,11 are frustrating to deal with with DP. Nate calls it 'The sheriff and his deputy.
If you play OCHM and get knocked off, consider waiting until point is established and make a DC bet. All you have to worry about then is the PSO. And they will come.
Memo