How Bad are those Bad Bets - and How Can You Profit From Them

Setting and influencing the dice roll is just part of the picture. To beat the dice you have to know how to bet the dice. Whether you call it a "system," a "strategy," or just a way to play - this is the place to discuss it.

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heavy
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How Bad are those Bad Bets - and How Can You Profit From Them

Post by heavy » Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:01 pm

In this month's newsletter I updated an older article of mine called "How Bad are those Bad Bets. I'm going to reprint it below and open it up for comments. SPECIFICALLY, I'd like to see some conversation about some of those bad (high vig) bets and how DI's can profit from them. Please be specific as regards to bet sizing, press moves, and dice sets you would use in specific situations (e.g. Come Out) to make these scores.

I'll give you an example. Place Bets on the Four and Ten have a house edge of 6.67%. Ordinarily we'd say that's too much of a vig to try to overcome. However, since you can Buy the Four and Ten for as low as $20 you can reduce the commission to 5%. If you Buy it for $25 that reduces the commission to 4%. If you can Buy it for $30 for $1 it reduces the edge to 3.33%. So let's assume you set the Four or Ten as the point and you have a BoneTracker developed dice set that is strong on both the Four and Ten. You take odds on the point and then you Place bet the sister number for $15. On the first hit on that number you're paid $27 for the Place Bet. Buy the number for $25 and get $16 or $17 change, depending on whether they take the commission up front or after the next win. On the next hit Press to the maximum Buy you can get for just a $1 commission. In some casinos you'll be able to press it all the way up to $39 for just a $1 commission - and if they collect that commission AFTER the bet wins it reduces the house edge to the point that it's better than Placing the Six and Eight. THAT is a powerful Advantage Betting Play off of a high vig bet. That's the kind of information I'd like to see you guys come up with and share with us. Now here's that article:
How Bad ARE Those Bad Bets?


Yeah, I know. I already talked about “Confirmation Bias” when talking about the Full Moon and hospital births in my opening remarks, and said the “math” word and scared the hell of of some of you. Well, welcome back to the classroom. And stop doing that eye-roll thing. We’re going to keep beating you over the head with this until you get it so you may as well read on.

Determining the house’s mathematical edge in a game like craps is fairly easy. I could give you the mathematical formula but some of you would just scratch your . . . uh. . . heads and wonder what it said so I’ll just spell it out. First you determine the amount paid for every positive player outcome. Then you determine the amount won by the casino on every negative player outcome. Simple, right? Next you take the difference in the two and divide it by the total number of possible outcomes. That gives you the house edge expressed as a percentage, also known as the house advantage or the vig. Or you could think of it as the player disadvantage. I’m really not going to beat you over the head with it. I was joking about that. If you want to learn how to do the calculation just Google it. It’s not rocket science and if I can do it you can learn to do it your self - or just look it up on the Wizard of Odds. But I warn you. His answers may confuse you even further.

Now, I want to take you outside the box for a minute and get you to think about a game OTHER than craps. The other game we’ll talk about is blackjack.

Did you know that the math guys can’t really define what the house’s exact edge is at blackjack? Oh, they can tell you what the edge is if a customer plays perfect strategy as long as the rules of the game are clearly defined. But therein lies the problem with blackjack. Few of the players at a blackjack table can actually pull off basic strategy - much less incorporate any of the subtler intricacies involved in adjusting play to the number of decks or the specific rules of a particular game when it comes to splits, double downs, insurance, early surrender, dealer hitting on soft seventeens, etc. Nor does any of these take into consideration a players ability, if any, to count cards, track aces or high cards, take advantage of a sloppy dealer and get an occasional peek at a hole card, or any of the other things 21 players can do to get a small edge.

Depending on the rules of the game and the player’s skill level the house edge on blackjack may range from as little as a zero to as much as eight-and-a-half percent or more. On average, “tourist” players, and by that they mean recreational players who make a little more than one misplay in every ten hands, contribute an estimated 7% more to the game’s bottom line than “informed” players. In a $10 game that means for every ten hands played the tourist who doesn’t know basic strategy loses $7 more than the smart play of knowledgeable gamblers. And that’s in a 3-2 game. Imagine that most tourists sit down to a 6-5 game and play it without a second thought? Hell, I’ve seen players on cruise ships refuse to play double 0 roulette because they’d played on a triple 0 wheel and liked it better. If two zeros is good, three must be better, right? Sigh. Sucks to be stupid.

The casino, of course, has the benefit of years of tracking table drops, hold, and wins. As a result, they can accurately estimate an overall house advantage of around 2% at blackjack. That’s the number they use when forecasting blackjack profits. It’s also the number they use when determining how much they’re willing to give back to the player in the form of comps.

Now let’s go back to the other side of the pit and consider our game - craps. And for the sake of keeping things simple we’ll even toss out any edge you might get through dice influence and just look at the straight-up game. But even without DI in the mix it’s damned difficult to know just what the house edge is. Why? Because most of us don’t limit ourselves to a single bet. Calculating your EV on any one bet on the layout is fairly straight forward. In fact, the work’s already been done for you many times. The Pass Line bet, for example, has a house edge of 1.41%. Free odds added take it even lower. Place bets on the six and eight have a similar house edge of 1.51%. But what’s the house edge if you have a buck each on the hardways, another $10 in the Come plus $1 Any Craps. Suppose the point is 10 and we take $30 odds, the Come travels to the Nine and we take another $40 odds, then place the Six and Eight for $18 each and bet $15 in the Field. Wow. There are some pretty good bets in there - and some pretty bad ones.

Take the famous gaming author that claimed the Doey-Don’t didn’t carry a 2.82% vig because the only way you can lose is one way – one the 12. Well, when he made that statement back around 2005 he proved once again he was innumerate. I mean, let’s face it. Instead of lumping those two bets together made by one person, let’s put a husband and wife side by side. We’ll have him play $10 on the Pass and her play $10 on the DC. Now, the Pass Line bet carries a 1.41% vig and if we do a little creative rounding we can say the Don’t Pass is about the same. So over the long run, EACH of these two players effectively pays about .14 cents in vig every time they make their $10 bets, regardless which one of them wins. So what is different if just ONE person is making these two bets than two separate people – especially if these two people are playing out of a shared bankroll? Zip. Nada. Nothing. BUT, in a sense the famous gaming author was correct. The Doey-Don’t bet didn’t carry a 2.82% vig. But not for the reason stated, but because there is no such thing as a Doey-Don’t bet – just as there is no such thing as a Three-Five bet or a Sixty-Nine bet or a . . . well, you get it.

Now, some people try to calculate the vig on this bet incorrectly and come up with 2.82%, but they do it by lumping the two bets together, which you cannot do. Instead, you have to calculate the vig separately on each bet. I suppose you could add the amount of the two bets together - let’s say you have two $10 bets, for example - and multiply the $20 result times 1.41%. But even that’s not going to be quite right because the vig on the Don’t Pass is slightly less than 1.41%. And even if you DO come up with the same answer - the process is wrong. Which is why your math teacher always told you to “show your work” on those tests.

If you’re going to do the math – at least do it correctly. Then again, even a broken clock tells the correct time twice a day.
Pease comment below.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy

grinder2017
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Re: How Bad are those Bad Bets - and How Can You Profit From Them

Post by grinder2017 » Mon Oct 10, 2022 5:28 pm

Heavy, can you explain to me why the hold rate is so high on games that have such a low vig as craps and BJ. Just checked the MS gaming commission web site hold rate on BJ 16% craps 20% for August. Are there that many uneducated players ( I may know that answer)? Why not just play a slot that pays 95-97% ? Just food for thought.
Cheers
Grinder

AllahPena
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Re: How Bad are those Bad Bets - and How Can You Profit From Them

Post by AllahPena » Tue Oct 11, 2022 10:45 pm

grinder2017 wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 5:28 pm Heavy, can you explain to me why the hold rate is so high on games that have such a low vig as craps and BJ. Just checked the MS gaming commission web site hold rate on BJ 16% craps 20% for August. Are there that many uneducated players ( I may know that answer)? Why not just play a slot that pays 95-97% ? Just food for thought.
Cheers
Grinder
If you play any game with a decision like an idiot the house edge is always higher. That's why there's house edge then ACTUAL house edge... when people play all the crazy side bets, etc the edge sky rockets. For example I was given a crash course on the wrong way to play craps by my uncle who literally bets $200 yo every single roll. Then when he hits it once every 20-25 rolls he says "Yeah, I got em !" ... and I'm like nope, they still got you. Lol

grinder2017
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Re: How Bad are those Bad Bets - and How Can You Profit From Them

Post by grinder2017 » Tue Oct 31, 2023 9:08 am

Heavy, my bad bet is placing the 4 and 10 for $10 each. I know that it is a high vig bet but I have made more on the 4 and 10 this year than any other numbers. On a $10 min table I might go across for $64 or outside numbers for $40 if my wife is playing at the table she likes the six and eight or sometimes I take the even numbers. I mainly play in Biloxi that the vig is paid on the win once you buy the 4 or 10. On the 1st hit I press it to $25 then $50 then $100 then $200 then $400. At $400 I may tap the breaks and go to $600 or mash the gas and press it to $1,000 or $1,200. It is pretty exciting to hit table max starting with a $10 bet. I use to be a math guy and play only the low vig bets but now I look for opportunity to arrive and take advantage of it. I need to get more aggressive on my 5 and 9 press so that I can get to $500 faster Biloxi has auto buys on them at $20.
Cheers
Grinder

220Inside
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Re: How Bad are those Bad Bets - and How Can You Profit From Them

Post by 220Inside » Tue Oct 31, 2023 2:36 pm

Grinder, you need to learn the Parson Press for the 5 and 9. It was built for Biloxi!

grinder2017
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Re: How Bad are those Bad Bets - and How Can You Profit From Them

Post by grinder2017 » Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:03 pm

220Inside wrote: Tue Oct 31, 2023 2:36 pm Grinder, you need to learn the Parson Press for the 5 and 9. It was built for Biloxi!
220 is it on the forum or his YOU tube channel?
Cheers
Grinder

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Re: How Bad are those Bad Bets - and How Can You Profit From Them

Post by 220Inside » Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:49 pm

Both. It should be detailed in the sub-forum somewhere

But the basic schedule is

15-36-80-80-200

From there, it's as aggressive as you want it to be, once you collect at 200.

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Re: How Bad are those Bad Bets - and How Can You Profit From Them

Post by kumar » Wed Nov 01, 2023 4:12 am

I also consider playing in casinos such as those in A/C bad bets.The best bets are in the Mississippi and Colorado casinos .
Payoff on a $30 5/9 bet is $44 in Mississippi and $42 in A/C. Per session one is going to be at a roughly $50 disadvantage in A/C playing at the $25 level.
Avoid casinos that take juice upfront on the 4/10 and in crap less on the 2/3/11/12.
Going 5/5/5 on the ALL/TALL/SMALL bet can be a killer if it is not hitting ;can easily drop $2k on a 3 day trip.It is fun but smart money stays away from these bonus bets and center bets .That does not mean I am smart all the time.If I see those bets hitting I will take a shot.
I have played the Parson Press in Mississippi for years;A great way to get the juice out of a roll.Till I read this post I did not realize the 5/9 press is called the Parson Press.
Vegas casinos are in the middle of the road;one gets clipped on the 5/9 payoff however one does not have to pay juice upfront on the 2/3/4/10/11/12.

grinder2017
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Re: How Bad are those Bad Bets - and How Can You Profit From Them

Post by grinder2017 » Wed Nov 01, 2023 4:28 pm

220,I will give the Parson press a shot but may modify it for a $10 table. $10 to $24 to $60 to $60 to $150 to maybe $300 then $500 then maybe $1000. I'm hoping to get to Biloxi this month if my schedule will allow it.
Cheers
Grinder

KevtheCarpenter
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Re: How Bad are those Bad Bets - and How Can You Profit From Them

Post by KevtheCarpenter » Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:25 am

So, very early on in my gambling adventure I bought a general gambling book to try & learn what I could about how to gamble smart, and the book was very detailed on house edge, how it works and why you as a smart gambler should avoid high house edge games & bets. This shaped my approach of how I would play not only craps but all other games for many years, even still to this day. I learned to avoid all high house edge “sucker” bets like the plague. You will never and I mean NEVER see me drop one dime on the ATS, fire bet, horn, hardways, hops etc. even when I place the 4&10 for anything less than $20 my #1 goal is to get those things pressed up to or beyond $20. I learned how to count cards on bj and mastered optimal strategy. I never play roulette. I keep up on my optimal video poker play and do everything I can to find & play the best pay tables.

Now, even though I am a house edge nit, I would make an exception to craps if and only if I can master my toss and prove to myself time & time again I can use the right sets to hit those center action & bonus bets at a much higher than expected rate. I think that is the only way to beat the odds and profit from those bets.

I do have to admit that I occasionally turn a blind eye to my nitty house exge ways and play the occasional slot, bet the bonus on pai gow poker, bet the pair+ on 3 card poker. But, it’s minimal and not often.

Lastly, it blows my mind just how uneducated the masses are when it comes to this stuff. No wonder why the casinos rake in the billions. Educate yourselves, people!

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Re: How Bad are those Bad Bets - and How Can You Profit From Them

Post by Big O » Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:59 am

You will never and I mean NEVER see me drop one dime on the ATS, fire bet, horn, hardways, hops etc

Thats a long long time KtC. I did see that you tempered your comment later when it comes to craps. I to lay off alot of the "sucker bets" but over the years i have learned when to gamble or when i might have an edge that goes against the numbers. Actually playing with Heavy has given me great insight with some intuitive and educated experienced betting...and not betting
"if it was easy anyone could do it"

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Re: How Bad are those Bad Bets - and How Can You Profit From Them

Post by KevtheCarpenter » Wed Feb 21, 2024 3:38 pm

Big O wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:59 am You will never and I mean NEVER see me drop one dime on the ATS, fire bet, horn, hardways, hops etc

Thats a long long time KtC. I did see that you tempered your comment later when it comes to craps. I to lay off alot of the "sucker bets" but over the years i have learned when to gamble or when i might have an edge that goes against the numbers. Actually playing with Heavy has given me great insight with some intuitive and educated experienced betting...and not betting
Yeah, I’ll include an asterisk with my craps comment in that if it’s a proven shooter who I know is currently on a set that favors horn and/or hardways, can change sets to snipe the ATS successfully, or if someday hopefully I can achieve that status, then I would make an exception. My comment is based on a pure random probability. I’m definitely not dropping center action on unproven shooters, myself included.

With this said, I’m sure my nitty house edge ways have probably cost me money in the long run. Maybe not. Who knows 🤷‍♂️

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