Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

So I was wondering since a DI has some control of the outcome of the game, do you always play the "carnival" bets? Dont remember the odds on all of them but I'm sure they are way above 100 to 1.
I usually toss a $1 or $2 on them but not all the time. It does hurt to see one hit and you wasn't on it but with the odds being so high, do you plan on betting them or is it after you have winnings and think" a buck isnt anything compared to the $200 I'm up" and you place a high odds carnival bet?

The thing is, if you use Bone Tracker for a thousand rolls or so, you will get an idea of what sets will produce the most of a number. If you are looking to throw a 9, for example, you'd check out the transpose section and look for the set that produces the most 9s with the highest SRR. Just gives you a bit of an edge towards hitting that ATS number. Your SRR will have to above the ordinary to do this. On the other hand if you have a low SRR where sevens come often..you can play that way too.

Hi BigBear

ATS results from a 3-day trip last week.
Small results only as that is typically the only one I play/track (i dont wager every time). If one wagered a Small Bet for every shooter and always rebet immediately one would have received the following results.

11 sessions
8 Small wins
Sessions with a Small Win: 7/11
Longest distance without a Small win: 51
Shortest distance between Small wins: 3
Total # of 7s across all sessions: 237. 237/8= 29.625




Continued Success,

Tgold, so the small was 30% hit?

BigBear wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:52 am Tgold, so the small was 30% hit?

No. If I'm reading this correctly the Small hit only every 29.6 times (8 times out of 237). That's a 3.4% rate.

Duplicate

So bet $1195 for $248 payout, assuming $5 ante, 30-1 odds. Boy that sucks! Most casinos are now $5 minimum ante. Here was one urban posse bet. $50 line bet, no hedge. $50 ATS action, 15-20-15. Throw a seven, rinse and repeat.

House of Orange wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:36 pm Duplicate

The dark side of bonus bets that no one likes to talk about. When you put it all together, they're a long term losing proposition.

Exactly. Nobody is overcoming these massive house edges long-term on these bets. They are fun and make good headlines on here and Facebook via the rack or palm photos of high denomination chips but they are nothing other than an entertaining sideshow at best.

At worst they are a total bankroll drain for most of the people most of the time.

22Inside--yes u are correct in your statement: "...If I'm reading this correctly the Small hit only every 29.6 times (8 times out of 237). That's a 3.4% rate..."

Reminder this was only for the SMALL wager.
So if one purchased a SMALL ticket on every shooter @ lets say $1 and repurchased on every Small-Killing 7, then one would have wagered $237 accross the 11 sessions. If payout @ $30 on the Small (8x30)=$240. If payout @ $35 then payout $280.00. So Net + but not by much.

I might mention on the above referenced 11 sessions the 7s showed with a greater-than-expectation for the good 7s. Numerous comeouts had 2-3 comeout winners. For example, on one particular comeout: (77777117, 88,xxxx7) so great for the PL parlay stackem-dont-rackem player/ not so good for the player continuously wagering the SMALL.

*I track this wager alot and typically the multi-session multiple day average is between the range 17--27 vs the 29.625 noted above. Also, the abundance of Good 7s usually dont present as often as I indicated above.

**IMO either the Small OR Tall could be net positive for many players. However, I think the price of the other two tickets (A/T) purchased at the same time may be too expensive to overcome.



Continued Success,

Goodmorning Tgold,

What would happen, if i set up a team of players That would only play BIG RED for 30 days
7 days a week.?

luck for all.

jaime 1943.

My apologies to Tgold and the board. Incorrect math on my part. 239 wagers still cost $1195. Eight wins at $155@ pay equal $1240.

Ive always felt if a DI preplanned an assault on one end of the spectrum and only wagered (S OR T) it could be profitable. On multi-day trips I will typically start a progression on only myself at $7 for the small/every 23 losses raise $1 til it hits/restart at Base Unit. If Im not planning on tossing for low #s on that hand then I skip the Sm wager for that hand only. The volatility isnt as bad as one might think. Occasionally I will get into the 40s without a hit as typically that seems to be the longest distance between wins on most trips. Wherever Im at when the last session ends for that trip I continue on with the progression on the very next session at a later date.

Personally the main downside is that its easy to get too focused on one number remaining and lose sight of the other wagers that may be pressed to several times the potential Small win...etc. Plus the fact that even though it is net+ the ROI is always minimal.



Continued Success,

House of Orange wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 9:23 am My apologies to Tgold and the board. Incorrect math on my part. 239 wagers still cost $1195. Eight wins at $155@ pay equal $1240.

That's for a full payout ATS which are a rare breed. For the lower payout ATS, 8 wins @ $150 works out to $1200. That's a lot of work for $5, one unit win over that many decisions.

No, the old payouts were 35 for 1 , new are 30-1 so $35 went to $30 for each $1 bet. So the payout went from $1400 to $1240 based on 8 wins. Ouch! Scarlet Pearl maintains the old, higher payouts!

You're right HoO. Forgot to factor in the return of the original winning bets.

I guess I’ll throw the monkey wrench into the flames here.

I think with the right GAME PLAN the ATS is a strong play. First realize that sides (aka the Small or the Tall) are always more prevalent than the All.

Next realize there are three discernible groups to decide to bet: you as the shooter, other DIs, and the army of flingers. First I always bet the full ATS on me, if it’s a table I know my way around, I’ll even bet more. I keep track and play it as a progression; naturally the sides increase faster than the All - that’s ok. Secondly, for other DIs - I bet it, if I know the DIs ATS history and/or I know you actively target the ATS - I bet more. Thirdly for the flingers & rhythm rollers, I might selectively bet minimum sides or all three bets, especially if I think the table is warm ( i.e. folks seem like they are having a lot of 8+ tosses).

I keep track of all three cases; running totals of risk and reward in a spreadsheet can be enlightening. Frankly, it’s been better since the ‘rona, as now with a max of six players per table the chances are better; as being there with another DI means there’s a max of four flingers ( and one of the four always seems to pass the dice) so a $1 Tall and Small is not a drain for me.

So make a plan, treat the ATS tactically, while also knowing your go to sets for the “last” numbers.

DN8R

Next realize there are three discernible groups to decide to bet: you as the shooter, other DIs, and the army of flingers. First I always bet the full ATS on me, if it’s a table I know my way around, I’ll even bet more. I keep track and play it as a progression; naturally the sides increase faster than the All - that’s ok. Secondly, for other DIs - I bet it, if I know the DIs ATS history and/or I know you actively target the ATS - I bet more. Thirdly for the flingers & rhythm rollers, I might selectively bet minimum sides or all three bets, especially if I think the table is warm ( i.e. folks seem like they are having a lot of 8+ tosses).

This pretty well sums up my thoughts. I might add with the lower payouts i have become increasingly careful on who and when and if i bet it on others.

treat the ATS tactically,

The first quote summed up my attitude toward the ATS. These four words in the second quote are the key. This is where i think most people miss the boat on the ATS, if you see it and play it as a bonus bet that is the results you will get.

So at Harrahs in Biloxi they have new bets on their layouts, even the Tub. ATS plus two new ones ... rollem natural which is the extreme numbers 2,3,11,12 pays at 75 to 1 and one for roll boxnumbers at 12 to 1.

I opted to play 555 on the ats with $10 on the extreme number bet .... this was the tub as it was the only one open. I hit the tall 2 or 3 times, never the all the small maybe twice.. i chased the 3 for fifteen minutes to close the deal on that darn nice bet... never hit it.... later i through five ace deuces in a row..... i hate admitting that, since i did not bet horn or ace deuce, but hey it was the TUB... which all in all i hit pretty darn hard for a two night trip.

Come to think of it, the tub in itself is a carnival bet.

Parson wrote: ↑Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:21 am So at Harrahs in Biloxi they have new bets on their layouts, even the Tub. ATS plus two new ones ... rollem natural which is the extreme numbers 2,3,11,12 pays at 75 to 1 and one for roll boxnumbers at 12 to 1.

I've tried to find the house edge on those bets but to no avail. Mostly curious about the all box bet, as that sounds like it might be exploitable.

Parson, are those new bets on all of their tables, or just the tub?