reference to a post

Setting and influencing the dice roll is just part of the picture. To beat the dice you have to know how to bet the dice. Whether you call it a "system," a "strategy," or just a way to play - this is the place to discuss it.

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Re: reference to a post

Post by irish » Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:42 am

continuing...

Bankroll (I’ll talk about Risk Aversion another day)

This is a touchy subject. Anything that revolves around personal finance is. Let's start with the definition of bankroll. Stanford Wong said of bankroll, it's “the amount of money you can afford to lose before you give up gambling.” I'm not crazy about this definition. For the non-professional gambler, this means that most have a bankroll of infinity. Most here have some amount of money immediately at their disposal and some additional amount in their mind, which makes up their "bankroll." But it's not real. If they lose, they’ll simply continue to replenish as they’re able, forever, until they are no longer physically able to go to the casino, or financially able to replenish their bankroll on a regular basis.

For example, we have, Fred. Fred heads to Vegas (or Biloxi, or Tunica or wherever) with $1500 in his pocket. If Fred wins $500, he'll add that to his $1500, but he may also dip into his “bankroll” to pay for an unexpected expense at home or maybe purchase a shiny object for himself or his spouse. Now, if Fred has a BAD weekend, and loses $1100, Fred would be sad. Fred would be pissed off. Fred may even panic a little. He probably would tell a little white lie to his spouse about how the weekend went, and then return to work on Monday. After a few weeks, or maybe more, Fred will stash some money here and there from his paycheck, or maybe work a little extra, to get back to his $1500 “bankroll.” Shampoo, rinse, repeat.

empty pockets.jpg
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Why is this a terrible way to fund your play, particularly if you have an edge? BTW, for the first years of my journey, I resembled Fred quite a bit. Now, a significant loss had no impact on my family finances, but a losing weekend, or a single larger loss, took a psychological toll on me. How could I lose if I was a “good shooter?” The fact is, if you're worried about a loss or a string of losses, you're not shooting at your best. To do this well, money should be a tool, not a psychological burden.

So, how do you build a bankroll? That's up to you. For me, I had a decent string of wins, a windfall from work, a windfall from selling my website, and I was teaching DI classes a couple of times each year. Those teaching weekends were worry free. I didn’t make a great deal of money from the classes, but it meant my sessions for the weekend were fully funded, without touching my bankroll. My expenses were covered, and my rooms were generally free. If I won some, my bankroll got larger, and if I lost a bit, it literally had zero negative impact on my bankroll. Playing in this manner was stress free. And that was extremely beneficial to both my shooting and my bankroll. In other words, you will maximize your skill if you are not worried about money. That is why having a good-sized bankroll is important. It’s actually quite contrary to the old saying, You have to risk money to make money. You have to HAVE money to properly risk money.

Anyway, after a few years on my journey, I also started becoming keenly aware that most DI’s, even good ones, give away most of their edge. I started betting more wisely and basing my wagers solely on my bankroll as best I could. Early in my journey, I too was infatuated with the tall tales of huge wins despite poor betting choices, but as I matured in my play, I realized these tales were no different than the “I once caught a fish THIS big” stories. Sure, the fisherman ONCE caught a fish that big, but most of the time, the big fish pulled so hard, it dragged the fisherman into the water. (that part is conveniently left out of the tale, and forgotten by the fisherman)

So, for many, building a bankroll means staying out of the casino for awhile. Maybe pack a lunch instead of buying for a few weeks. Take a side-gig? Who knows. It’s highly unlikely that you’ll efficiently build bankroll utilizing DI techniques, while simultaneously sweating every loss to your bankroll.

With all that said, my bankroll isn’t huge. It’s five figures, but certainly not close to six figures. Heavy and I aren’t friends any longer, so I don’t see teaching classes in my future. I still see occasional work windfall money, most of which goes to college tuition for three, but a little of it bumps up the bankroll a bit. Mostly it grows, slowly, based on my play. I’ve called my annual average winnings, inconsequential, which is true. But if my bankroll grows a couple-few thousand annually, I’ll continue to raise my bets, just a bit every year.

I’ve established a decent, fully liquid bankroll, and have an extremely disciplined way of playing, and I bet in a manner that only an extraordinary string of events would diminish my bankroll by any significant factor. I will quit playing long before the bankroll runs out.
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Re: reference to a post

Post by Big O » Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:16 pm

To do this well, money should be a tool, not a psychological burden.
After a couple of my first trips playing with some more experienced players and talking to them over a meal or two after sessions this is the first thing i picked up on. When i came home i told my wife. "its like they aren't playing with money. Their money to them is like a hammer to a carpenter." I can say im completely there yet but i am getting there.

You have to HAVE money to properly risk money.
That this is why i buy in for more money than i would ever lose in one session. If i were to buy in for 300 and look down and it was half gone im afraid how it would affect my play and my betting. Plus i hate re buys.
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Re: reference to a post

Post by DoSA » Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:29 pm

Lost limits and win goals. You do not see me at a table for hours on end - not happening. I am sure some at the June Jam thought I was stuck-up or something. But you will never see a report of me at a table at all hours of the night.

Money - Irish is 1000% right - is a tool. A great description. If you can't afford to lose it - what the hell are you doing in a casino!!!?? If you are having money issues this is just another item effecting the mental part of your game. Trust me at the table we have enough to worry about - setting the dice tossing the dice,the flight of the dice, the landing spot and not to mention the results.

If money is your focus - kiss it good bye.

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Re: reference to a post

Post by irish » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:38 am

OK. So, seems like we're generally in agreement on bankroll. We could quibble over things like win goals and loss limits, but those are largely personal decisions. Anyway, if you're underfunded, what is the implication in regards to risk aversion? How is this related to volatility management? If you have an edge, will risk adverse strategies make you more profit? What are the psychological implications of being very risk adverse?

If you wager inside or across, and then regress, are you risk adverse? What about if you wager inside or across, and progress your bets after getting them all paid for? Adverse or aggressive?
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Re: reference to a post

Post by skasower » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:05 pm

Irish,
In reference to risk adversity and risk loving, I am thinking that such perspectives are entirely personal. Essentially, how I live my life may appear to you as entirely too risky, whereas I might think that I am not taking extraordinary risks. In such a case I am neither risk adverse nor risk loving. Now, should I come to experience personal losses associated with people in my life who have met their demise crossing streets, I might come out of my relatively self defined risk neutral life and decide that crossing streets is too risky for me. I have become risk adverse to crossing streets. You may not feel that crossing streets is riskier than other normal human activities (that all have a modicum of risk associated with them) and you now would not see my behavior as risk adverse. The conclusion here is that risk assessment is relative to the perspective of the risk assessor.

Now let's turn our focus to betting strategies that are riskier or less risky that could lead one to being risk adverse or risk loving. The first case is based on the relative probabilities of each betting strategy. That is the probability of one set of bets relative to another set of bets. If I made my bets based on the strict relative probabilities of each then I would be risk adverse if I made the bets that had less probability of occurring given random dice tosses.

All this is premised on my being a random dice tosser. If I am a DI expert, then I would gauge risk assessment on my anticipated toss performance over the long term. Knowing myself and my tossing would again lead me to have a personal risk assessment not one easily calculated by others who are not familiar with my tossing capabilities.

The last point I want to make about risk assessment is more basic to the house overhead vig of different betting strategies. If I am a random dice tosser, and I expect to grow my bankroll (is this an oxymoron?), then I would be risk adverse if I bet strategies that had higher vigs than other available bet strategies. This is akin to purchasing mutual funds that have high administrative fees. No matter what the return, those fund taking higher fees will return less for a given portfolio than firms whose fees are lower. Same goes for bet strategies that generate higher vigs with similar lower vig strategies with equivalent or similar probabilities of payoff.

If I am overthinking this Irish, you have my word that I will not growl if you bark at me.

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Re: reference to a post

Post by memo » Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:44 am

Skasower....

Did you have fun writing that post?

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Re: reference to a post

Post by mainframe » Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:33 pm

So regarding Bankroll and Risk and gambling goals/objectives, I have a few comments:

I know there are a few professional gamblers out there who sort of eek out a living/existence with gambling as their primary source of income. I am not sure how many of them actually live off the gambling winnings as opposed to writing books or teaching seminars, but I assume that 90% of the professional gamblers that succeed are poker/holdem players. Blackjack card counting can be done but its not a big mathematical edge, Not sure about Baccarat or Craps.

That said, I dont think most people should quit their day jobs, even master dice influencers. I heard that at $25 hand, a BJ card counter may be able to net something like $15/hour in profit. I dont know where I heard that. I can make alot more than $15 doing my day job.

I dont think I gamble because I think I am going to make a living do so. I do it for the thrill of potentially winning a few bucks, but its never going to be a life-changing win (at least not at a table game), and I am sure I will lose more over the course of my lifetime of casino gambling than I win.

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Re: reference to a post

Post by skasower » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:25 pm

Did you have fun writing that post?
Ah Memo,
I spent too many years as a college professor. So, this kind of stuff is just the way I write. Pity my poor wife...this is pretty much how I talk too! :lol:

skasower, lives life like its an amusement park (retired in 2009 and started a business in a completely different realm from what I taught)
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Re: reference to a post

Post by irish » Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:57 am

As skasower indicated so eloquently, risk aversion is personal. However, it's directly related to bankroll in some cases. There's also player utility, which I left out of my initial post about this.

There is a necessary balance between risk aversion, bankroll, and how it relates to frequency of play. If you want to play multiple times each week, every week, you better have a large bankroll, OR you bet in a very risk averse manner. In those cases, you'll see a player hedging, calling bets off and on, and other volatility management techniques like have a very small loss limit. An underfunded, but frequent player may not have profitability as their primary reason for playing. This is that player utility issue. They may just like to play. The tables may be their social outlet. The flip side is the action player who wants to win big, or go home. Small wins are meaningless to this player.

And we haven't even mentioned HA. Interestingly, there's often an inverse relationship between HA and risk aversion. Many of the risk averse techniques increase HA. You often hear risk averse players use phrases like "losing less." The action player can come in various flavors. Some splash wagers all over the table (also high HA), others bet the line/come or dp/dc with max odds, which reduces the HA to almost nothing, but trades off in volatility.

If you're playing with an edge, on a scale from EXTREMELY RISK AVERSE to NOT RISK AVERSE AT ALL should be in the middle, but leaning a little more toward not risk averse at all. Which means you need a bankroll to support that style of play. It's all very circular.

And back to player utility. Why do you play? How do you get enjoyment from playing? As I've stated many times, I do not enjoy the casino environment for long stretches. I do not enjoy packed tables and I have zero need to interact with others. I like to play for 30-60 minutes, win or lose, and leave. I may or may not play for another few others. For a weekend trip to Vegas, I usually play a couple of sessions each day. My reason for being at the casino is to ply my DI skills. That's my utility. Your utility may be different. Your (or my) utility is not superior. We play for different reasons. You may take great pride that your buy in lasted 8 hours at the table where I'd kill myself if I spent 8 hours at the table.

The important thing to derive from this is that your decisions have implications. If you're employing regression, you may have more winning sessions than someone betting only the line with max odds. Both decisions are perfectly valid, but we can calculate the expected EV of both choices and as the number of sessions played increases, the likelihood of that calculation being correct, increases.
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Re: reference to a post

Post by Big O » Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:52 am

My reason for being at the casino is to ply my DI skills.


I believe this is the underlying reason i play. I was initially drawn to the game by the excitement i saw it create one night passing through a casino. The first time i played i won what i thought was a lot of money at the time but i think the challenge of trying to have some influence over the dice and edge over the game is the driving force. Ive always been a competitive person with lots of physical endeavors. Slowly as my ability to be able to enjoy and even do some of the more physical endeavors has waned craps has filled that void. In order to survive at the table long enough to try and apply my DI skills i have had to learn HA, EV, variance, volatility and a whole host of things i knew very little about. I continue to learn from the experts on this forum and hopefully can enjoy craps for a few more years.
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Re: reference to a post

Post by heavy » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:54 am

On my latest outing - at the seminar in Kansas City, I played one session per day. The sessions I played at Harrah's in KC were basically to let my casino host know that I was in the place and giving them action. My first session I played long enough for the dice to make two trips around the table. I played that long because I wanted a second shot at the dice after moving up into my preferred position. That decision payed off. Every other session I played at Harrah's was less than an hour and consisted of just one trip of the dice around the table. I won every session but one. The only session I played away from Harrah's was a group session on Sunday played at the Ameristar. We stayed for two trips of the dice around the table there. This session was my one big loser for the trip. Nevertheless, overall the trip was a win for me.

I typically play this way. I like to get a shot at the dice. If I am not successful my first time I like to make an adjustment and take a second shot. If that doesn't work out - win or lose I'll usually color up and take a break or change tables. I tend to run with the "change your table - change your luck" theory when things aren't running the way I want.

To a degree I play for entertainment, but for me entertainment is supposed to be fun. Winning is fun. Psychologically, you know when you're winning without even counting your chips because you're having fun when you are winning. When you're not having fun it's time to stop playing. Simple as that. Go find a game that's fun and play it.
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Re: reference to a post

Post by Bankerdude80 » Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:05 am

irish wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:57 am
And back to player utility. Why do you play? How do you get enjoyment from playing? As I've stated many times, I do not enjoy the casino environment for long stretches. I do not enjoy packed tables and I have zero need to interact with others. I like to play for 30-60 minutes, win or lose, and leave. I may or may not play for another few others. For a weekend trip to Vegas, I usually play a couple of sessions each day. My reason for being at the casino is to ply my DI skills. That's my utility. Your utility may be different. Your (or my) utility is not superior. We play for different reasons. You may take great pride that your buy in lasted 8 hours at the table where I'd kill myself if I spent 8 hours at the table.
This pretty much sums up my feelings and my style of play. I'm usually disciplined in my play, but occasionally fall short in this area. I stick to lowly populated tables, my goal is usually three or four attempts with the dice (me as shooter) win or lose and then bail. I want to leverage my DI skills to win. I limit or avoid bets on random and unknown shooters. I avoid high vig bets unless I am attempting to leverage a known advantage on them (GWAG- World Bet), I only bet bonus bets on myself and the occasional known shooter or I avoid betting them entirely. Being risk averse, I have the tendency to under bet my advantage in relation to my bankroll and buy-in. Still a work in progress. I fully embrace Heavy's adage, "If it ain't fun, it's time to run."

Good stuff memo and Irish!
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Re: reference to a post

Post by memo » Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:28 pm

OK, So I am getting a great deal of information that really helps paint the particulars of my composite picture as an individual DI 'Player'...Not sure I have ever given that much of an analysis in the past....It was much more of a vague understanding..

My question, really is more specific to the blanket statement that a DI does not have enough influence to overcome the HA of an inside bet...
What then, is the best way to bet, knowing that most rolls are rather short, and our most frequent numbers vary over time according to the discussion stated above..

Place to come of some sort?
It is pretty much accepted we suppress the 7, but dominant numbers vary, usually to the inside numbers.

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Re: reference to a post

Post by DanF » Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:09 pm

I have a lil anecdote from my last vegas trip that might get you to think.

I was having a good session on a 5 player table, getting the dice back fairly quickly cuz people would pass and let me shoot, cuz my shot was going pretty good at Binions one afternoon... I was making a loft light toss that would sometimes get only 1 dice to hit back wall, they accepted it for about an hour, then 12 rolls into it, the pit tells me if my dice don't touch the wall. Or go too high again, I'm out.

So having a bunch of tricks up my sleeve, I switch to a flat controlled toss ...about 10 inch high and both die break right after touching wall... So thinking he got me to change my throw, he smiles at me after first throw...and I throw perfect shots for the next 30 shots lol, then color up and leave after a 42 rolls perfect execution. LoL

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Re: reference to a post

Post by irish » Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:24 am

My question, really is more specific to the blanket statement that a DI does not have enough influence to overcome the HA of an inside bet...
This is good. Getting to the crux of it. Remember, we've had these discussions in the past. If you have a validated SRR of > 6.1, how is that achieved? That number is an average, but your data will indicate that for the most part, you (and I and everyone) shoot no better/different than a randy most of the time. It's when things align, that we have longer and deeper hands than random. I DON'T want to simplify, but in general, your outlier hands give you your not random SRR. Your outlier hands occur with slightly more frequency, and are more OUTLY-IER than random hands. Keep this in mind. for below.
What then, is the best way to bet, knowing that most rolls are rather short, and our most frequent numbers vary over time according to the discussion stated above..
OK. So you said it, if most rolls are short. And I said, most rolls are no different than random.... What to do?
Place to come of some sort?
Sure. That's better than inside and regressing. Regression feels good. But it's terrible mathematically. You're better off flat betting if you're going to be inside. Right size your bets and let luck decide. But, it's all relative. Honestly, and get ready for everyone to be up in arms. The BEST way to bet without identifiable dominant numbers? Just a line bet with decent odds. Volatile. Good recuperation rate. Boring as hell. If anyone ever has done the WINCRAPS roll your own over larges swaths of your data, even a lower SRR will give you a decent edge over the line. No one want to hear that though. So what else? I like place to come. You start getting into some edge/roll calculations that are ugly. But for those that have one foot in DI and the other foot firmly as a gambler, pretty good choice. If you play with greater frequency, I'd limit the number of rolls that you're exposed on higher HA wagers. My preference is place to come, but I only place the 6/8. Not all the inside numbers. It satisfies the remaining gambler, but I'm not exposed to a totality of double digit HA. There's not a single answer. Even my response about llne bet only doesn't apply if you play a couple of times each year. The more you play, the more the math comes into play.
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Re: reference to a post

Post by memo » Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:04 pm

So, in the past, I have used the ISR thinking it would decrease my exposure to some of the short hands....Not doing the math, ...however it seemed right even logical. After all it only needs 2-3 hits to break even. Kinda on the same level as thinking a doey don't on a 25 dollar table will make it like playing on a 5 dollar table, when actually you are doubling the HA.

With a 6,8 place to come, we are reducing the HA as compared to an inside bet, even with an ISR...Irrespective of the frequency of play.
HA (of ISR) stays the same, it is just a reduced bet.

Memo

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Re: reference to a post

Post by Bankerdude80 » Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:44 pm

irish wrote:
Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:24 am
Honestly, and get ready for everyone to be up in arms. The BEST way to bet without identifiable dominant numbers? Just a line bet with decent odds. Volatile. Good recuperation rate. Boring as hell.
Taking this a bit further, if you add two or three come bets with decent odds into the mix does this reduce the volatility risk and how would it impact EV? My thinking is that as a practiced DI, the initial numbers your dice set and toss produce on a particular table (which your come bets travel to) are likely to repeat (although not always - hence more than one come bet). Once the come bets pay off you have options. You can continue come betting, convert to place bets, or wait out for a PL win.
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Re: reference to a post

Post by DarthNater » Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:04 am

Bankerdude80 wrote:
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:44 pm
Taking this a bit further, if you add two or three come bets with decent odds into the mix does this reduce the volatility risk and how would it impact EV? My thinking is that as a practiced DI, the initial numbers your dice set and toss produce on a particular table (which your come bets travel to) are likely to repeat (although not always - hence more than one come bet). Once the come bets pay off you have options. You can continue come betting, convert to place bets, or wait out for a PL win.
I think there is merit to multiple come bets, especially When you are shooting in an established position on a known table. Those who play with me know I like to play a variant of the Heavy Heatseeker. In my latest straight out book, I’m getting lots of box numbers, some more than others and in live play, there has been a noticeable repeating of certain numbers, though you’re never sure during the actual hand. So on the two or three tables I know well I will place four of the six boxers, then follow up with two, generally three, come bets. I’m looking for hits and repeaters. Longer term I’ll convert the comes that hit into higher place bets. This has allowed me to catch more numbers earlier than just heat seeking with the six and eight.

Funny observation is on two of the three known tables I bet the four evens; whereas on the third I bet the four inside. Also on one of those two that are bet four evens, I’ve actually bet the four outside numbers recently, skipping the six and eight. This seemed contrary and weird till I tossed 5,5,9,10,10,5 while trying to make a point of four. Eventually I wound up with bets across that were all paid for.

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Re: reference to a post

Post by irish » Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:56 am

Taking this a bit further, if you add two or three come bets with decent odds into the mix does this reduce the volatility risk and how would it impact EV? My thinking is that as a practiced DI, the initial numbers your dice set and toss produce on a particular table (which your come bets travel to) are likely to repeat (although not always - hence more than one come bet). Once the come bets pay off you have options. You can continue come betting, convert to place bets, or wait out for a PL win.
Yes. The volatility is reduced a bit because of more numbers being covered, but you have increased exposure since you have more money on the table.(Unless you were choosing between line bet w/10X odds and line/come/come with 3X odds each) However, if you were choosing between three numbers being covered by line/come/come and three numbers being covered by line/place/place, you would have greater expected value with the line/come/come when analyzing at the meta level.

Now, you said something that I do, which contradicts a lot of what I said about HA. I actually like to place back a number if the come bet hits. It's not always the smartest HA move. But this is what I was talking about earlier, our outlier hands are OUTLY-ier. If I'm on, I want to find that one number to now focus on and profit from. All of us have had those sessions where one number has labored at table minimum, while another is piled high....

If I've hit the 5 a couple of time, and the come has paid, I'm going to place it back and probably setup a new come bet. I'd probably place it back at a level less than the come payoff that I just received. I want to take some money from the table So, yes, you have options. Place back. More come bets. BOTH? And again, if you're trying to take some money off the table, you can "regress" your odds or place back at lower levels.

Of course, success with this is still entirely incumbent on having a proper bankroll to withstand ebbs and flows, and proper bet-sizing based on that bankroll.
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Re: reference to a post

Post by Big O » Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:38 pm

my betting knowledge obliviously needs more work, trying to understand why
line/come/come and three numbers being covered by line/place/place, you would have greater expected value with the line/come/come when analyzing at the meta level.

line and 2 place bets could get paid twice in the time it takes to establish line, come, come. plus i get to pick the numbers, can come down if i want and am protected from come out 7s if line bet was made. what am i missing that makes the come, come better?

I have tried a little come betting unsuccessfully, however i have never used it when i was tossing.
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