I've been wanting to revisit this thread since it started but the job and of course, real life, has imposed it's will many, many times but NOW....As of June 21, 2019, I Am Retired and find I have some free time on my hands. (I may even start practicing dice influencing again). But anyway, I had to "dust off" my database program. It's one I wrote myself so I can make it do just about anything I want, it's just that it requires some programming to get from here to there.
I will zip up the text file and attach it to this message and I will paste the same report below. This report looks at races from Churchill Downs, Ellis Park, Aquaduct, Belmont, Tampa Bay and Gulfstream Park, from April 1, 2018 through November 30, 2018, 3,235 races, 25,417 entries (average 7.86 horses per race) with a "Z" pattern where the horse:
1. Was first, second or third at the 1st call
2. Falls back to fourth, fifth or sixth at the 2nd or 3rd call
3. Finishes the race second, third of fourth
4. All distances, all surfaces, all conditions (but the report looked at ALL races, ALL DIRT races, ALL TURF races, ALL SPRINT races, ALL ROUTE races, ALL DIRT SPRINT races, ALL DIRT ROUTE races, ALL TURF SPRINT races, ALL TURF ROUTE races and as a control, it also looks at the best BRIS PRIME POWER rating in each race)
Formatting is not exactly perfect but open the text file and it will be a little more clear. More info at the end of the report.
DATABASE = MULTI18.CSV
TEXT FILE = MULTI18_DTSR_Z.TXT
TEMPLATE = DTSR_Z.CSV
ENTRIES IN DATABASE = 25417
RACES IN DATABASE = 3235
****************************************************************************************************************
ALL RACES
(NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS THE RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH NO FILTER)
WIN 3,218 13% $ 38,822.6 -24%
PLC 6,432 25% $ 38,028.3 -25%
SHW 9,587 38% $ 38,386.9 -24%
BETS 25,417
1ST BIG WIN $ 163.6
1ST BIG PLC $ 75.0
1ST BIG SHW $ 52.2
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -24%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -25%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -25%
2ND BIG WIN $ 153.6
2ND BIG PLC $ 72.4
2ND BIG SHW $ 44.6
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -24%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -25%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -25%
3RD BIG WIN $ 151.4
3RD BIG PLC $ 72.0
3RD BIG SHW $ 37.6
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -25%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -26%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -25%
****************************************************************************************************************
ALL RACES WITH Z
WIN 548 16% $ 4,801.1 -28%
PLC 1,049 31% $ 5,079.4 -24%
SHW 1,503 45% $ 5,083.9 -24%
BETS 3,334
(NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS THE RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH HORSES THAT SHOW THE Z)
1ST BIG WIN $ 74.5
1ST BIG PLC $ 34.4
1ST BIG SHW $ 21.0
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -29%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -24%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -24%
2ND BIG WIN $ 68.6
2ND BIG PLC $ 24.0
2ND BIG SHW $ 15.6
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -30%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -25%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -24%
3RD BIG WIN $ 53.5
3RD BIG PLC $ 23.0
3RD BIG SHW $ 14.4
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -31%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -25%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -24%
****************************************************************************************************************
SPRINT Z
WIN 325 17% $ 2,658.4 -31%
PLC 610 31% $ 2,855.2 -26%
SHW 891 46% $ 2,946.4 -24%
BETS 1,940
(NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS SPRINT RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 74.5
1ST BIG PLC $ 23.0
1ST BIG SHW $ 15.6
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -33%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -27%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -24%
2ND BIG WIN $ 42.8
2ND BIG PLC $ 22.6
2ND BIG SHW $ 11.0
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -34%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -28%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -25%
3RD BIG WIN $ 38.6
3RD BIG PLC $ 21.4
3RD BIG SHW $ 10.8
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -35%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -28%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -25%
****************************************************************************************************************
ROUTE Z
WIN 220 16% $ 2,104.0 -23%
PLC 433 32% $ 2,176.2 -20%
SHW 604 44% $ 2,102.1 -23%
BETS 1,368
(NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS ROUTERACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 68.6
1ST BIG PLC $ 34.4
1ST BIG SHW $ 21.0
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -26%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -22%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -24%
2ND BIG WIN $ 53.5
2ND BIG PLC $ 24.0
2ND BIG SHW $ 14.4
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -27%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -22%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -24%
3RD BIG WIN $ 38.0
3RD BIG PLC $ 18.0
3RD BIG SHW $ 11.8
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -29%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -23%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -25%
****************************************************************************************************************
DIRT Z
WIN 332 18% $ 2,637.4 -30%
PLC 607 32% $ 2,803.6 -26%
SHW 880 46% $ 2,866.2 -24%
BETS 1,893
(NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS DIRT RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 42.8
1ST BIG PLC $ 23.0
1ST BIG SHW $ 15.6
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -31%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -27%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -25%
2ND BIG WIN $ 30.0
2ND BIG PLC $ 22.6
2ND BIG SHW $ 11.8
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -32%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -27%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -25%
3RD BIG WIN $ 30.0
3RD BIG PLC $ 21.4
3RD BIG SHW $ 11.0
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -33%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -28%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -25%
****************************************************************************************************************
TURF Z
WIN 180 15% $ 1,793.6 -26%
PLC 370 30% $ 1,932.4 -20%
SHW 522 43% $ 1,882.4 -22%
BETS 1,214
(NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS TURF RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 74.5
1ST BIG PLC $ 34.4
1ST BIG SHW $ 21.0
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -29%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -22%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -23%
2ND BIG WIN $ 68.6
2ND BIG PLC $ 24.0
2ND BIG SHW $ 14.4
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -32%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -23%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -24%
3RD BIG WIN $ 38.6
3RD BIG PLC $ 19.8
3RD BIG SHW $ 10.6
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -33%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -23%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -24%
****************************************************************************************************************
DIRT SPRINT Z
WIN 233 18% $ 1,789.1 -30%
PLC 411 32% $ 1,867.5 -27%
SHW 601 47% $ 1,920.9 -25%
BETS 1,277
(NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS DIRT SPRINT RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 42.8
1ST BIG PLC $ 23.0
1ST BIG SHW $ 15.6
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -32%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -28%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -25%
2ND BIG WIN $ 30.0
2ND BIG PLC $ 22.6
2ND BIG SHW $ 11.0
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -33%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -29%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -26%
3RD BIG WIN $ 26.8
3RD BIG PLC $ 21.4
3RD BIG SHW $ 10.8
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -34%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -29%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -26%
****************************************************************************************************************
DIRT ROUTE Z
WIN 99 16% $ 848.3 -31%
PLC 196 32% $ 936.1 -23%
SHW 279 46% $ 945.3 -23%
BETS 611
(NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS DIRT ROUTE RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 30.0
1ST BIG PLC $ 16.6
1ST BIG SHW $ 11.8
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -33%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -25%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -23%
2ND BIG WIN $ 28.6
2ND BIG PLC $ 14.4
2ND BIG SHW $ 11.0
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -35%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -26%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -24%
3RD BIG WIN $ 26.8
3RD BIG PLC $ 13.6
3RD BIG SHW $ 10.8
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -37%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -27%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -25%
****************************************************************************************************************
TURF SPRINT Z
WIN 75 14% $ 724.2 -35%
PLC 162 29% $ 820.4 -26%
SHW 236 43% $ 850.1 -23%
BETS 553
(NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS TURF SPRINT RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 74.5
1ST BIG PLC $ 19.8
1ST BIG SHW $ 10.6
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -41%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -27%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -24%
2ND BIG WIN $ 38.6
2ND BIG PLC $ 18.2
2ND BIG SHW $ 10.6
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -45%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -29%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -25%
3RD BIG WIN $ 34.4
3RD BIG PLC $ 17.0
3RD BIG SHW $ 10.4
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -48%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -30%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -26%
****************************************************************************************************************
TURF ROUTE Z
WIN 104 16% $ 1,057.4 -19%
PLC 204 31% $ 1,079.8 -17%
SHW 281 43% $ 1,008.3 -23%
BETS 651
(NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS TURF ROUTE RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 68.6
1ST BIG PLC $ 34.4
1ST BIG SHW $ 21.0
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -24%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -20%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -24%
2ND BIG WIN $ 34.2
2ND BIG PLC $ 24.0
2ND BIG SHW $ 14.4
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -26%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -21%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -25%
3RD BIG WIN $ 32.2
3RD BIG PLC $ 15.8
3RD BIG SHW $ 10.0
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -29%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -22%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -26%
****************************************************************************************************************
BRIS PRIME POWER
WIN 890 29% $ 5,161.4 -15%
PLC 1,518 50% $ 5,247.2 -14%
SHW 1,956 64% $ 5,248.4 -14%
BETS 3,048
(NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS ALL RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH #1 PRIME POWER RANK)
1ST BIG WIN $ 30.0
1ST BIG PLC $ 15.4
1ST BIG SHW $ 10.0
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -16%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -14%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -14%
2ND BIG WIN $ 24.8
2ND BIG PLC $ 15.4
2ND BIG SHW $ 9.6
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -16%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -14%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -14%
3RD BIG WIN $ 24.6
3RD BIG PLC $ 15.2
3RD BIG SHW $ 8.8
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -17%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -15%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -14%
****************************************************************************************************************
So just generally looking, this angle is a loser. You lose between 19% (TURF ROUTES) to 35% (TURF SPRINTS) of every dollar bet. You would be much better off (or would lose less, only 15%) just betting the highest BRIS PRIME POWER in each race.
The report shows the best return based on all payouts, then it shows what happens if you remove the highest payouts, then it shows what happens if you remove the second best payouts and then if you remove the third best payouts. Sometimes a positive ROI can be attributed to just one or two big win payouts.
The attached ZIP file is a text file of the above report with more info. The above was modified for formatting on this message board.
If you have questions or need any additional information, please let me know.