Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I use a $30 6 and 8 starting 3rd roll if, and only if, I feel my V3 throw is on. Then regress to $18 on each and hard press from $50 for 1 thereon until $180. If I come out with a 3 and then a 10..that's another story sometimes involving a no 10.

Typo on the first scenario-- the 9 should also be 125.00 on the nine.
I have been knocked out before the first hit, but it normally takes me 3 to 4 hands to recover, which is why the buy in is 4 times the 600.00 at risk.
Take a look at your last 720 tosses, and see how many times you really would be 7 outed before your first hit.
If you only had the 60.00 win on all your following hands you would need 15 inside numbers before another 7 out bust, but seriously on most hands you will have additional wins on the remaining money on the table.

On a 25.00 table after the first hit and the regression I always press $10 or $12 on the the number that its, the second time it repeats I press 25 or 30 on each hit, once I can see which numbers pressed stack is growing faster than the others, I will always press it 50% of the win.

PSO, then what?
Looking at my latest 1073 tosses, I had 19 point 7 outs = -12,350.00 in losses.
Had 92 successful hands = a first hit 60.00 win = +5520.00 win. Combined loss/win = -6,830.00 at this point without any gains on the remaining money on the table. Even if you didn't do any pressing but just did a same bet, this group of numbers had 389 additional inside winners not counting the 1st hit of each hand, at 35.00 win per number that adds 13,615.00 wins less original loss of -6,830.00 that equals a 6,785.00 gain. Plus 12 come out 7 wins less 2 crap outs= +250.00. Grand Total gain is 7,035.00. If you follow my press suggestion it is much, much better. My numbers would actually do a fair better if I worked the 4 and 10, but I just can't bring myself to put that much more on the table.
On the start of every hand I never WOTCO, but once I have the first hit, I turn them on for the duration of the hand WOTCO.

Scout
Do you mean 25 to 30% increase to the size of the amount currently on the number, or a percentage of the current place numbers win, which is want I meant? If it pays me 120.00 I press 60.00.
I have for many years placed the 6 & 8 for 30.00 each, regressed down to 12.00 each, but I could never really get much ahead. More of a break even system for me, which didn't cover travel and lodging.

From bonetracker we can see what % of time we PSO. If it is much less than random then I think a regression betting system would work well. Are we going to PSO? Yes, and it always hurts but if we have bone tracker stats that are good then self confidence should be enough to survive the occassional PSO.

Umm,numbers do not add up, something missing. 102 hands equals a srr of over ten. I need to go play with him, I will make a fortune. Probobility says that 16-17 percent of attempts will be seven outs. That would be on a srr of 8, that would be about 145 separate attempts, which should be approximately 23 psos. Must have been on the practice table. Never seen anyone throw that few psos in live play. Hope I can find someone who can do that before I die.

You are close to correct,
720 toss stats: SRR 8.09, BSR 5.79, RBS 6.96, 81 hands with 89 7's, as I often back to back 7's. RBS<=1 16.67% with a break down of 8=0 RBS and 7=1 RBS
last 352 tosses, SRR 8.83, BSR 6.18, RBS 6.83, 33 hands with 40 7's. RBS<=1 17.50% with a break down of 5=0 RBS and 2=1 RBS.
Yes, these stats are on my home table, but it has been paying out pretty good in the casino as well, I can not track myself very good in live action, but I think the live action seems to run about SRR 7 to 7.5, which is closer to my longer term at home SRR.

Seattlerick,
You were also correct about the numbers, I went back and did a careful actual count of the tossed record. I was trying to use some of the Bone Tracker totals for something they weren't intended to do to save me the time of actual counting each toss. I have corrected the previous post to correct the errors. It still shows a very nice profit that I am happy to live with. Sorry for the mistake and I'll try to be much more careful in the future.

Funny. I was thinking about old Rappin' Captain just last week. The guy loved those bouncy-ass tables at Island View in Gulfport. There were several of the guys who shot with him regularly who played with him there. High tosses landing directly at the base of the wall for the most part. He had some good runs there.

No problem ice cube, I would like to find somebody who could actually do that in real live play. Maybe I will fly down and play with his heaven is, he might be able to do that on a regular basis

Thanks for the betting strategy Icecube. Something to ponder.

If you can find a bubble with low limits you can test run Icecubes strategy on the cheap. I'm lucky enough to have one close by now that is $1.00 min aggregate bet. You can make 25 cent bets as long as your total is $1 or more. If it works on a bubble, it'll work on a live table.

I've found a playable toss for the medium bounce at Altoona,thanks to help from a friend. Since they're 14 foot tables it only works for me from SL1 though. I hang out at the bubble now and wait for opportunities to play the regular table since I usually don't play unless there's 3 or fewer players.

Question on the regression plays. If trash numbers are rolling after you make your initial bet inside or outside depending on your bet spread. How many tosses will you allow without a hit before you take them down to live to play the next hand?

If I'm playing an inside spread with a view to regression or getting money off the table, then 3 rolls with no hits is a good limit for me to pull things down or adjust.

Similarly if I have a 6&8 up, a no hit in 4 rolls is a very strong point at which I can take bets down, or drop their size.

I also like pulling bets down after two consecutive craps numbers.

It's all about preference, but any system that gets you pulling money off the table will work in the long run on most shooters given the vast majority of the game we play is nothing other than random. Work that is as in "lose less", not "win more".

A couple of trash numbers back to back always runs me off until the next hand...especially if I do not have a paying hit yet. Hey...I got plenty of time to win and a lot to lose in a very short time the way I see it.

slt1966 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:42 pm Question on the regression plays. If trash numbers are rolling after you make your initial bet inside or outside depending on your bet spread. How many tosses will you allow without a hit before you take them down to live to play the next hand?

After reading MP's "Regression Avoids Depression" http://www.dicesetter.com/mp/dmad140regression.htm, IMHO, a better answer to your question would be it depends on the shooter's SRR.

If you haven't read it, it is just about as good a read of anything I have seen in relation to a sound regression based betting strategy based on some craps math.

Scout...thanks for posting that up and reminding me I needed to read it.

lately I’ve been playing around a lot...

Here’s what I came up with:

No pass on other players, just myself.
No firebet on anyone if he has not made at least 2 pts on his last hand.

Wait after point is established, then place h4&10 for 4$ each. In the event of a pso you only lose 8$. But if hard 4-10 comes you plan on getting a 20$ buy on the number and collecting the 8$ you invested. The you are paid bonus on any successful hit.

On 2nd roll when point is on still, place 6&8 for 12 and 9 for 10. Then on a hit move to 6 or 8 to 30, nine to 25. Investing 3$ or 1$ doing so.

If-when number is repeated, raise to 42 or 35, from then collect 2 hits and press all the way on next.

If it comes up and you are way up on the hand, place the 5.

When ever numbers spread to 3 diffrent instead of repeating, regress to starting point. But only once per hand.

Of course it’s not perfect. But you get a great progression factor for a low 42$ investment. Easy to get great hands going with this plan and grab big money on a 10$ table.

For 5$ table I need to review my plan before my next run.

That's a decent play DanF.

I look at betting strategies as an ever evolving aspect of your game. In the 2+ years I've been on the boards here, I've made many tweaks to mine and am still trying to settle into something. Of course part of that is that I'm now playing with a larger bankroll than I've used in the past, thanks to my progress I've made in my own game thanks to this group.

Thanks DanF, keep it coming!

Thumbs up 22Inside, I hear ya! A bigger BR lets you experiment more and also play with steeper regression ratios.

I would also be very interested to know the specific dice sets used with a specific strategy or if it evens matters to most DIs. I bet specifically the inside numbers when my 6/5 5/4 or 3V set is on. I play even numbers when my 2V set is working well. My BT Toss Stats have indicated these numbers for the specific dice sets and they usually are spot on...

stratocasterman wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:57 pm Thumbs up 22Inside, I hear ya! A bigger BR lets you experiment more and also play with steeper regression ratios.

Definitely. But moving to a bigger bankroll also tests your comfort levels with betting at higher levels. While it might seem intuitive that moving from a betting level for a buyin of $X, that when you bump the buy in to 2-3X you should also be comfortable with higher betting levels that the larger bankroll affords you, that's not necessarily the case. The two don't move in lockstep with one another and there is an adjustment period.