Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

scout wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:11 pm How true! Keep at it though, 22Inside!

There are definitely worse problems to have, that's for sure!

I think I'll know when I've fully made my transition when I change my handle, something Heavy keeps ribbing me about when I see him.

22Inside wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:20 pm

scout wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:11 pm How true! Keep at it though, 22Inside!

There are definitely worse problems to have, that's for sure!

I think I'll know when I've fully made my transition when I change my handle, something Heavy keeps ribbing me about when I see him.

How about 220Inside? Now that should bring about a test for sure!

If by "test", you mean "heart attack", then I fully agree with what you are saying

If you go 220 inside, regress after 2 hits max.

Howdy to All, it's been a coupla years since I've posted I think. Been layin' low; prolly played maybe 10x in the last 2-1/2 years. The budget will change drastically February, allowing regular excursions like the old days... but with the "new routine", I'm not so sure the craps bug is as fervent as it was. We've been surviving completely on our savings for this absent time, and with that, my betting strategies were "whittled" out of necessity. I haven't played enough live sessions to figure out if my new "reduced" strategy is "sound"--as much as any betting system can be sound. I'd like to hear all ya'lls opinions...

I'm thinking of doubling the values I was using to these, stated:

WOTCO $80 outside w/$60 each on the 6/8 and $5 PL (total at risk is $205 at the come out) :

"Strategy A"
the first three consecutive numbers during the CO don't pay take me down $5 PL w/$20 Odds $44 inside with an eye to a 3x signature parlay.

"Strategy B"
if one of the first three rolls is an outside number before a 6/8 come up, regress to $30 Outside, still $60 each 6/8, w/$5PL & $10 odds

if one of the first three rolls is a 6/8 before an Outside number, reduce the 6 (or 8) to $18, leave the $80 Outside, $18 6/8 and $5 PL & $15

If I roll first an outside number (with WOTCO $80 Outside $60 each 6/8 )
and then a 6/8, the Box bets would look like this when I rolled the 6/8:

$30 Outside $60 each 6/8 (and $5PL w/$10 Odds)

I would reduce the 6/8 to $18 each and increase my Odds to $20

Within "Strategy B" betting, once the place numbers are all regressed, I rack the first place bet payoff. After that, the 6/8 go to $42 on their next payoff, and I take $50 for $1 on every 6/8 subsequent hit. I designate the outside number that hits first AFTER the first place bet payoff as my signature number, and I parlay only that number 3x; all others "up one unit". If I can get the 6/8 to pay off at $50 for $1 three times before the sig number gets to 3x, I'll let the signature number ride and hope to regress it at its' 4th roll instead of the third.

This is a convoluted betting regression and I haven't figured out if the regression itself is procedurally "sound". (I learned on Mad Professor's $204 WOTCO) which established a "standard" of 4-1 losses to recoup a PSS. I dunno the math well enough to figure out if the 6/8 statistical odds at $60 each are favorable enough compensate for my lightly-weighted outside payoff reqressions.

Thanks!

What is your reasoning for WOTCO? You can really get wiped out before a big rolls even begins.

Bump...any new strategies? Right Side or Dark?

r_ventura_23 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:57 pm What is your reasoning for WOTCO? You can really get wiped out before a big rolls even begins.

For me, I utilize the 2V set. In thousands of recorded practice tosses, my 7/11 CO figure was roughly 1 out of 14 or 7%. If half of those were 7s that would be 3.5%. WOTCO works well for me tossing ONLY that specific set. Other sets for me were FAR worse than 7% and I don't even try a WOTCO for them.

You say get wiped out before a big roll...yes that can happen and conversely, it can also get you off to a GREAT start. With my strategy below, should I get my first hit WOTCO, all I need is ONE hit to be in the money. With four numbers placed that isn't that difficult really.

The other thing I noticed about the strategy below is that IF I toss a PSO. It is recoverable, unless I am just tossing crap that day. I'm just out $68 and have four more shots at it with a $300 Loss limit. A PSO is a 23% BR Loss per attempt.

I plan to get back to the table after a several month layoff, in the next week or so. Per Heavy's suggestion, I have been utilizing rigorous practice sessions over the past two weeks, followed by 30-60 toss "tuneups" every day thereafter.

I war-game betting strategies in Wincraps when I practice or afterwards sometimes.

Lately what has seemed to be very good with my 2V set is:
Heavy's $30DP/10PL w 20 odds
WOTCO
$18 6&8
$16 4&10 Buy (Yea $16, I know but, you have to bet in increments of 100Pesos here =$2)
If 4/6/8/10 is the point, I utilize the free odds to the max above the $20 and Place bet any remaining amount.
After any two hits, I am on the Win AFTER regressing down to:
$12 6&8
$10 4&10 Buy
3rd hit and on is a $6 press per the number hit.. When a Place number gets to $42-40 bet, I start pressing $12-10 per...let it ride and hit those place numbers.

I used to be ALL worried about leaving money on the table. I think now, I am to the point of SCREW it! I will never be able to get big wins if I pull it all off the table. Hell, it's paid for so let it ride and focus on the LZ and toss!

Thoughts?

WOTCO can be effective. The key is to have triggers in place that manage negative volatility. How many hands per session are you willing to risk at your betting level if you are experiencing streaks of PSO's or less than stellar tossing results? At what point are you willing to accept your losses for that session and walk away? Do you have a stop-loss limit in place? Or, do you keep playing and try to power through for a win?

On your own shooting you can use the RBS tab in bonetracker to see if WOCO would work for your toss at least on the initial comeout. It won't pick up comeout sevens after the first point has been made unless I'm missing something.

I have printed a RBS graph of every book I've entered in BT and feel it's an important metric to use to figure out how you're going to bet. You can have a good SRR and still lose money if your betting doesn't match your tendencies.

This year has been a year of experimentation for us in betting strategy since we moved back to Biloxi in May of 2017 and have daily access to the crap tables plus being reintroduced to dice influencing and this forum and it's members We have tried everything Regression Progression Pulling Pressing Waiting 3-5 rolls etc I had studied the Forum betting strategies and tried a lot of them in our play I hate to say it but Nothing has worked and if anything has hurt us in our style of play You have to understand that we play 4-6 days each week , Lori " BiloxiLady " can't stand not having a bet on the table on every shooter Very few DI s are available Long rolls are not going to come often etc I feel we have to have a system that has some structure, requires limited decisions in the heat of battle and one that has a chance of working everyday on everyone So for the month of July we have gone back to a modification of something Lori used most of last year for a year end overall profit On ourselves and a few other shooters we know we bet $128 across First number hit pull that number down to $10 or $12 Next number do the same Next number the same Once this is accomplished you have all your bets paid for with three $20 or $24 bets and three $10 or $12 bets and all numbers covered Now isn't that a good feeling and a psychological relief so have at it !! Collect Press Max Press Collect Do whatever you want You're on a Freeroll At any point you can pull everything down for a increase of your profit Regress again Whatever you want to do Having the luxury of $5 tables available we do either $96 or $64 across on other shooters going down to $5 or $6 on the first three numbers hit A few times we have gone up to $180 across on some shooters coming down to $20 a number on the first three hits but that's a little stressful so we don't do that often Granted if you get PSO you are in the hole but we have found that we have been able to come back from several of these in a session by staying on this Of course you have to use good judgement Don't chase a cold table Control your emotions Use good money management etc Here we have an advantage because we can take a win or a loss and go home They will be there tomorrow Two other things we have learned in employing this strategy Don't bet the ATS and Work on the Come Out Maybe it's a fluke and as stated Lori employed this type of strategy to have a profitable year at the tables last year but for the first three weeks of July strictly using this strategy we have won 14 out of 15 days played for weekly totals of plus $1676 $1939 and $1249

Thanks BILOXIMAN and BILOXILady! Great input!

I always love a strategy I can war game in Wincraps and this looks like a good one for me to utilize.

I tried something similar to this before, where I just pulled the last number hit down, took that PLUS the payoff and pressed all the remaining place bets equally. I did this for 3 hits or 5 tosses, whichever comes first...then completely down to minimum bets across or even COMPLETELY DOWN. Works OK with a decent SRR.

Hey...14 Wins - 1 Loss...congrats! Don't you love it when the plan comes together and seems to work solidly?!

Thanks BD80, scout, dork, r_ventura_23, DanF and mssthis1 for the input.

Good topic and posts everyone.

Hi Biloximan---glad your current strategy is producing so well. I like that your only doing a moderate regression and your initial outlay is typically paid for by 4th or 5th roll.
Ive frequently utilized a similar approach with not-so-similar great success, though it was still productive and net+. My ROI improved when I only started with five numbers covered and did a HW on the sixth number (4 or 10 for a payout equal to place bets) vs my initial strategy of covering all six numbers. I selected the HW number by tracking and chose the one least hit thus far. in the session.

My strategy was slightly different then what you posted in that I reduced the sister number (to 1/2 value) so the just hit number stayed at full value. For example: Hit the 9 at $30 I would reduce the 5 to $15, hit the 6 at $30 and reduce the 8 to $18....etc until I had initial outlay paid for and +. My thought process was if a number has hit it might be more likely to repeat vs a nonhit number.

Continued success Biloximan, thx for sharing/keep us updated.


All the best,
Tgold

Thanks Tgold !!! That makes a lot of sense I really like the regression of the sister number I can't tell you how many times we have hit the number we regressed 2 or three times quickly after the regression and gone on to hitting that number 7-8 times in some hands Certainly something to prominent numbers in a hand in my opinion Your approach should allow us to take better advantage of this Thanks !! We'll incorporate this in our play tomorrow Thought they had us today Got down almost $700 on some early 7s on the come out and PSO Stayed with it Changed tables and Casinos and got that back and won $2 and ran home feeling like a big winner One of the benefits of living here We can always go back fresh tomorrow

great posts guy love it.

Icecube wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:09 pm The 600.00 inside bet is also less hassle for the dealers, after the first hit I tell them to reduce them all to 25.00 and I toss in 10.00 to make the 6 & 8 30.00 each. This way they do not have to make any change and the game moves faster.

25.00 Table
2,600.00 buy in
Pass line 25.00/no odds
Place 600.00 inside #5 #6 #8 #9
Starting Place Bet size 125.00 150.00 150.00 125.00
On 1st hit regress to 110.00 inside 25.00 30.00 30.00 25.00
Any 1st hit pays 175.00 less the 110.00 still working on the table, locks up a $60.00 profit for the hand, and now you still have 110.00 of the Casino’s money working for you.

Icecube, I'm digging in the old threads and found this play. I think this fits well in my current bankroll and risk tolerance settings (until Mari tells me I'm done).... You mention $600 inside above but if you are playing 125-150-150-125 + 25PL that gives you a $550 Inside + $25 PL bet, correct?

Then you regress to $110 inside and lock up $175 - $25PL - $110 inside = $40 profit for the hand after one hit.

As mentioned, the steep regressions are fun until you PSO 3 or 4 times in a row but as London Shooter mentioned in another thread, that is a pretty damn good sign it's not your day. Maybe I'd start with the $15 version but I like this.

Traditionally I have issues with regressions in that I don't work the come-out, I set a point (let's say it's a 4) ... I then go $220 inside, I hit a 6, I hit a 5, and I'm like "Do I really need to regress...I'm shooting well, I'm doing great"....and so I don't. You know what happens next.

I think on regressions, for me, it has to be one hit and regress. I tried this in Shreveport last week. I laid the $220 inside and told the dealer we were regressing to $66 inside after the 2nd hit so she wasn't surprised and knew what to do.....that's another big thing, telling them what to expect (when tipping, preferably) makes the whole thing go smoother.

Anyway, like this play. I'm gonna try it out.

B

Yeah.One hit and regress is my play too. The problem with the two hit regression is you may not hit that 2nd number right away. You may throw junk..2, 3, 12..and maybe a number you aren't on..say 4 or 10 if you are just playing inside. After I get my first hit and regress..the seven becomes a
lot less of a problem. I agree with Biloxi and I've always said I like his daughter's 2 and down play too. To prevent the PSO screwing you, don't place numbers until your 3rd roll. If you are throwing weird stuff not conforming to what you usually roll with your set..fuggetaboutit!

I've always found the one hit regression play to be a bit steep, needing at least a 3x initial outlay from the regression point, or realistically 4x or higher, making the one hit play too stressful for me. The risk to reward ratio is too great.

I've been toying lately with a 2 hit regression play, using Biloximan's daughter's $96 across as a start. But rather than 2 hits and down, I've been regressing to $44 inside or even, depending on what 2 numbers hit before the regression. If the first 2 hits are 6 and 8, I may regress to $36 6/8 instead. With this play, I'm always looking for a quick two hits. If the shooter starts throwing junk, I'll either come down entirely or regress way down before the 2 hits.

My next trip involves two regressions also, larger starting point on myself. Gonna make MP proud!

$96 across two hits gets you $42. Down to $44 inside puts you slightly in the hole..I'm assuming you're shooting so the PL bet is $15? Whatever..Yeah. It's a good way to do it. I just don't like that big an outlay on a roll. I'll go $30 6 and 8. I think there is value too in starting small..like a $12 6 and 8 and whatever you usually throw..10? 4? Or come out with besides the 6 and 8. And you press early to the next unit. And then take. If a roll develops, well you're there. This is, no doubt, the tough area. How to bet early and get ahead early.

thnick wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:07 am $96 across two hits gets you $42. Down to $44 inside puts you slightly in the hole..I'm assuming you're shooting so the PL bet is $15? Whatever..Yeah. It's a good way to do it. I just don't like that big an outlay on a roll. I'll go $30 6 and 8. I think there is value too in starting small..like a $12 6 and 8 and whatever you usually throw..10? 4? Or come out with besides the 6 and 8. And you press early to the next unit. And then take. If a roll develops, well you're there. This is, no doubt, the tough area. How to bet early and get ahead early.

If the 2 hits are both on inside numbers, the regression to $44 in/out/even does leave you $2 in the hole. If one of those hits is on 4 or 10, then you're in a $4 position. If both hits are on 4 or 10, then you're in a $10 position after the regression.

It's definitely a risk/reward tradeoff for sure. The thing I like about the regression from across is that any 2 box number hits gets you into your regression. If you're doing a regression from $30 6/8 (which is a play I also like), you need to wait for that 6 or 8 hit which could wind up taking longer and leaving you exposed longer.

Whatever your regression play, I think you need to have an exit plan if the hand doesn't develop the way you like and you get uncomfortable with leaving the initial outlay out there too long.