Question for Heavy

[rhythm roller]

Hi Heavy!

At one point in one of the threads on this forum I read where you and Dice Coach thought some tosses in a casino session sequence were more critical than others. I have been trying to find that particular thread for a while but can't seem to locate it. Would you either point me in the right direction or restate the toss numbers in a sequence that you determined might be more critical than others?

If you would like to discuss how and why you and Dice Coach decided that some are more critical than others then that would be appreciated too. Was it just looking at a lot of casino stats or was there something more involved?

I would like to run those critical tosses against my home casino sessions to see how they fit. I know that if I get by roll 3 then I am almost always good until roll 7. I believe roll number three was on your list of critical points to get past in casino tosses and that is what made me think back to your original post.

Hope I have described this well enough that you are not now scratching your head and asking "what the heck is she talking about?"

Thanks!

[heavy]

Yeah, I'll noodle around and see if I can find a copy of what you're looking for on the big computer at home. Essentially we're talking about a combination of things we cover in some of the betting strategy classes and in the TrendMasters material. That, by the way, is still a work in progress. We're essentially talking about trends that we've noticed through the years and made note of. Our pal Roadrunner also contributed to the knowledge base on this with his own observations.

My experience has been that when certain things occur at the table - the seven tends to come out. I call these things "energy draining events." You know them as "die down outside," "the cocktail server curse," "new money on the table," etc.

We've also noted that when a DI is tossing the dice - if he gets off track with the numbers he's tossing and a lot of trash numbers start to show up - it's a good time to turn off your bets until he gets back on the paying numbers - or sevens out.

Last of all - and I really think that this is what you're looking for - is that there are certain break-points we tend to see when looking at large volumes of BoneTracker rolls. By that I mean points at which it seems like we see hands end with the seven. Seems like that second or third roll seven is right there. Other break points that come to me off the top of my head are around roll seven or eight, fourteen to seventeen, twenty-three to twenty-seven, thirty-one to thirty-three . . . and now I'd be pushing it to remember further. Seems like there's a break around forty-three and another around fifty-one. From there - who cares?

I will admit to basing some of my regression points on this theory in the past. Lately I'm trying a somewhat different approach - not pressing as aggressively and holding at certain points longer - at least on the inside numbers. I'm still pretty much balls-against-the-wall on the four and ten.

Does that sound like what you were looking for?

[rhythm roller]

Yes, and especially the break points that you mentioned. Seems awfully close to what I experience. Even at the higher numbers. I can't tell you how many hands in a casino I have that ended on the 43rd toss. A lot and I have no idea of the number I am on since I am not the one doing the counting. I guess what I am saying is that it is more than a psychological thing since I don't know ahead of time that I am making my 43rd toss. Would like to do more analysis on mine and my husband's tosses. Not sure what I will do with these stats but they are of interest to me.

Thanks!

[heavy]

I can tell you that I've had several hands through the years that ended up around roll 57 - and several more between rolls 63 and 66. That pretty much fills in as much as I have. I remember looking at the "Sharpshooter Certificates" Roadrunner had on his bulletin board in Vegas - these were from the roll tracking they do down at the Fremont - and noticed the trend there. He and I talked it through and he noted that he'd seen plenty of evidence in his roll tracking through the years. You have to understand that George was a tad (ahem) OCD when it came to tracking rolls. He carried a pocket spiral notebook with him at all times and tracked every roll at the tables when he played. Then he'd take the numbers home, load them in WinCraps and play with them for hours. He'd slice and dice data six ways from Sunday, so I believe he was on to something pretty solid here. Other "math guys" will probably disagree.

[wild child]

.
The longest roll EVER I witnessed ( over 2 1/2 hours ) was from a shooter who SCHOOLED
the dice at what may have been "BREAK POINTS" comfortable to him...
THE Casino Magic Bay St Louis Mississippi.....( now under new ownership as Holly Wood)


.Not only did he occasionally slap the dice around( rolling backwards away from the target wall ) he typically several times requested to change the dice.....

THE BOX and T G S were going nuts...so he then started
tossing them off the table and requesting they " Dump The Bowl" thus, he accomplished the same thing.....

This was before I started taking D I seriously.......Several other occasions ,got a chance to catch his performance
Several greater than 1 1/2 hour......at the Grand Casino Gulf Port and The Grand Casino Biloxi,The Lady Luck,The President Biloxi....

The Ms Coast was a VERY SPECIAL PLACE in the salad days of Legalized Casinos first opening in the early 1990 somethings.....

.Same routine ,seemed to have a plan and be VERY COMFORTABLE changing the dice and
even varying the DELIVERY......I was TOO GREEN to actually DICE COUNT however did well
making wafers ,when I could get on the same craps table...

Doubt it could be an "EXACT SCIENCE" however the Kinesticology sports folks might relate
something to it. Is there a commonality as relates to quarterbacks,baseball pitchers or other
performing athleats ?

W C

[heavy]

You mentioned two of my favorite (but long gone) favorites - the Grand Gulfport and the President Biloxi. For those of you new to the gulf coast, the Island View sits on the Grand's former property and the Island View occupies the President's old real estate. The barges that housed the casinos, however, are long gone.

Here's a post-Katrina shot of the Grand Casino in the middle of Highway 90 just west of Highway 49.



Here's the President - post-Katrina.



That's what a tidal surge will do for you.