5 vs 9 betting leverage

Setting and influencing the dice roll is just part of the picture. To beat the dice you have to know how to bet the dice. Whether you call it a "system," a "strategy," or just a way to play - this is the place to discuss it.

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freak
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5 vs 9 betting leverage

Post by freak » Wed Oct 09, 2013 4:20 pm

One thing I've always been intrigued by is the fact that the 5 and 9 pay equally in odds but the 5 is not in the field while the 9 is. It seems there should be some way to exploit this difference. Can anyone recommend a strategy that "takes advantage' of this fact? It seems sort of like betting black and the third row in roulette since that row has mostly red numbers. Other than an iron cross, any ideas?
I wanna see the dust...

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heavy
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Re: 5 vs 9 betting leverage

Post by heavy » Wed Oct 09, 2013 4:48 pm

It would appear that your premise would require some sort of Field action. Once you come to that conclusion, it doesn't matter whether you call it the Iron Cross, Anything But Sevens, Fremont Street Grind, 83% Solution, or whatever other name you want to hang on it. The play is essentially the same. I'd forget about the Field and haul my butt to Tunica, where the five and nine are automatically "bought" at the $20 level. Buy them for $20 each. First hit press to $30. Happily collect $45 for $1 every hit after that.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy

SHOOTITALL
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Re: 5 vs 9 betting leverage

Post by SHOOTITALL » Wed Oct 09, 2013 5:04 pm

Well, Heavy, maybe ABQ might be the answer to this one.
Your craps plan? The dice gods laughed.

Pacecar
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Re: 5 vs 9 betting leverage

Post by Pacecar » Wed Oct 09, 2013 5:26 pm

I play the Dont's (but not on the come-out). Whenever I see a come-out 7 or come-out craps, my next bet is $21 no-nine and $10 field (for one roll).

wild child
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Re: 5 vs 9 betting leverage

Post by wild child » Wed Oct 09, 2013 10:32 pm

John Patrick addressed THE FIELD WAGER

The CASINO LAY OUT of today that we in NORTH AMERICA see has the "Nine" tossed in
as a way to make the wager seem more appealing ....The Field Wager is a single roll bet
on a collective of the mathematically least likely numbers to show on any one roll.
The number NINE is a add on...

Possible combinations of two dice = 36

Possible combinations to roll the 5 = 04
Possible combinations to roll the SIX = 05
Possible combinations to roll the 8 =05

.Possible combinations to roll the SEVEN = 6
.............................................................
On any ONE ROLL of TWO DICE there is TWENTY ( 20) WAYS TO ROLL NOT A FIELD

Yes there are four combinations for two dice to show a NINE ( 9 )
and even by the HOUSE giving to THE FIELD the NINE .....draw your own conclusion(s)

You could elect to HOP WAGER THE FIVE ( 5 ) for a somewhat lesser amount to offset
the $ shrinkage most gamblers experience when having a "WIN" on the FIVE ( 5 )
while loosing ground because THE FIVE cost the one roll wager in the Field.....
...............................................................................................

Were you to elect to HOP WAGER the FIVE , I suggest you do the math and BUDGET
for THE ROLLS that NOT A FIVE( 5 ) figured into your GAME PLAN...
.......
Some find the SELF SERVICE factor alluring in the placing THE ONE ROLL FIELD WAGER
Like THE BIG SIX and THE BIG EIGHT ,you need only place your wager and need not involve THE DEALER PERSON.............( except to wait for the dealer to make payment )
...........

When making THE HOP THE FIVE ( 5 ) WAGER , as with any HOP WAGER ...you will need
announce to the dealer each and every HOP THE FIVE WAGER prior to making it.

( Certainly you could instruct the dealer of your intention to HOP WAGER THE FIVE (5) each
and every roll of the dice by announcing "Five on THE HOP ALL NIGHT " )

You will then set the amount of both your FIELD WAGER plus the Chips for THE FIELD WAGER
and be prepared to keep them active

The HOP pays ZERO when the number fails to show

The HOP WAGER15:1 for the combination that shows
EXAMPLE :
FIVE HOP for $10 pays $75 ...because either the 2/3 0r the 4/1 pays while the other combination looses as it did not show.

If you elect to give THE IRON CROSS a go ,you may know that THE SEVEN takes the entire wager DOWN

You may feel more comfortable establishing a WAGER BUDGET for THIRTY ( 30 ) I C WAGERS
That is you consider each ROLL of THE DICE and the $ VALUE in chips as ONE WAGER....

Should you have the good fortune to win a wager,you have to elect on each roll of the dice
the precise $ AMOUNT you are COMFORTABLE again PLACING AT RISK OF LOSS......

As always in CRAPS If you snooze....YOU LOOSE :!: :shock:

Plan your play and PLAY your plan......

I tried to leave the $$$ amounts of THE WAGER open as each player will budget differently.
A player could budget THIRTY ( 3 0 ) WAGERS at his personal entry level and with good fortune
see the BANK ROLL grow to underwrite a LARGER TOTAL $ AMOUNT WAGER......

KNOW that a single 7 OUT kills the I C WAGER and with too large a loss multiplied
( COMPOUNDED) in a string of losses could totally decimate your BANK ROLL
and bring it to EXTINCTION

HOPE this adds to and helps

W C

freak
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Re: 5 vs 9 betting leverage

Post by freak » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:00 am

Pacecar wrote:I play the Dont's (but not on the come-out). Whenever I see a come-out 7 or come-out craps, my next bet is $21 no-nine and $10 field (for one roll).
Yeah...I guess this is the play that made me think about it. I also often lay a 5 or 9 on the comeout if I'm playing don't, or as a "counterbalance" to other bets if I have several placed bets. It struck me a while back that, if I was going to play the field, laying the 9 with a field bet was a vastly better play than laying the 5. I was just curious if there were other plays I hadn't thought of that take advantage of this difference is some way. Thanks.
I wanna see the dust...

Mad Professor
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Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm

Re: 5 vs 9 betting leverage

Post by Mad Professor » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:33 am

Everything Your Mama DIDN’T Tell You About The Field-bet

Let’s explode some myths.

Most gambling books will tell you that the Field-bet is a terrible wager.

~On a table that offers ‘double-pay 12’, the Field-bet house-edge is 5.55%, and I agree that is definitely a pretty steep vig.

~On a table that offers ‘triple-pay 12’ on the Field-bet, the house-edge drops to a much more reasonable 2.78%.

That means the house-edge on a triple-pay 12 Field-bet is even lower than the 4.00% house-edge a Place-bet 5 or 9 is burdened with.

Though you don’t see too many seasoned gamblers or craps dealers bad-mouthing the vig on a 5 or 9 Place-bet, most of them are pretty quick to brand the Field as a “dummy” bet.

I'm here to tell you that in the hands of a skilled dice-influencer, the Field-bet's bad-reputation is not only undeserved; but it also offers a highly-profitable blind-to-the-radar advantage-play situation as well.


Calculating Average-Payout

For a “triple-pay on the 12” table, the weighted-payout on a flat $5 Field-wager is calculated as follows:

2 pays 2:1 = $10 x 1 occurrence = $10
3 pays 1:1 = $5 x 2 occurrences = $10
4 pays 1:1 = $5 x 3 occurrences = $15
9 pays 1:1 = $5 x 4 occurrences = $20
10 pays 1:1 = $5 x 3 occurrences = $15
11 pays 1:1 = $5 x 2 occurrences = $10
12 pays 3:1 = $15 x 1 occurrence = $15

Total Field revenue: $95/16 occurrences = $5.94/Field hit


For a “double-pay on the 12” table, the weighted-payout on a flat $5 Field-wager is calculated as follows:

2 pays 2:1 = $10 x 1 occurrence = $10
3 pays 1:1 = $5 x 2 occurrences = $10
4 pays 1:1 = $5 x 3 occurrences = $15
9 pays 1:1 = $5 x 4 occurrences = $20
10 pays 1:1 = $5 x 3 occurrences = $15
11 pays 1:1 = $5 x 2 occurrences = $10
12 pays 2:1 = $10 x 1 occurrence = $10

Total Field revenue: $90/16 occurrences = $5.63/Field hit



Calculating House-Edge

For “triple-pay on the 12” Field-bet:

Field losses…20 wagers @ $5.00 each = $100.00 gross losses
Field gains….16 wagers @ $5.9375 each = $95.00 gross gains

$100-$95.00 = -$5 loss

-$5 loss/$180 total action = -2.78% house-edge


For “double-pay on the 12” Field-bet:

Field losses…20 wagers @ $5.00 each = $100.00 gross losses
Field gains….16 wagers @ $5.625 each = $90.00 gross gains

$100-$90 = -$10 loss

-$10 loss/$180 total action = -5.55% house-edge



Payout Gratification Index

Leave it to me to come up with a fancy way of saying that the Field-bet offers a somewhat more satisfying payback-rate than most other multi-number global bets.

For example, one Field-bet hit pays back an average of 118.5% per-hit ($5.94/hit on a $5.00 bet) on a triple-pay-12 table and 112.6% per-hit ($5.63/hit on a $5.00 bet) on a double-pay-12 table.

When you compare that to an Inside-hit that pays back 31.8% of the total bet ($7.00/hit on a $22.00 bet) or an All-Across hit that pays back an average of 23.4% of the total wager ($7.50/hit on a 32.00 bet); the Field-bet starts to look darn attractive.

See for yourself:


[tr][td][b][color=Red][center]BET-TYPE[/center][/color][/b][/td][td][color=Red][center][b]Average PAYBACK per Winning Hit [/b][/center][/color][/td][/tr] [tr][td][color=Blue][b][center]FIELD-bet [i] triple-pay 12[/i][/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]118.5%[/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Blue][b][center]Field-bet [i] double-pay 12[/i][/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]112.6%[/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Blue][b][center]Inside[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]31.8%[/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Blue][b][center]Across[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]23.4%[/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Blue][b][center]Outside[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]39.3%[/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Blue][b][center]Even[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]35.2%[/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Blue][b][center]Iron Cross [i]Anything-but-7[/i][/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]18.6%[/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Blue][b][center]Place-bet 6 & 8[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]58.3%[/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Blue][b][center]Place-bet 5 & 9[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]70.0%[/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Blue][b][center]Place-bet 4 &10[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]90.0%[/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Blue][b][center]Place/Bought 4 & 10[/center][size=1][center]in optimal $[/center][/size][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]98.0%[/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [/td][/tr]


How Many Hits To Pay for Itself

The Field-bet has what we call "high utility".

That simply means that one paying-hit pays for the entire bet...and then some. As a result, the Field-bet has the ability to quickly make up for a previously lost wager.

On the other hand, an Inside-Number wager has significantly lower utility in that it takes 3.14 winning-hits just to pay for itself.

Equally, an Inside-bet loss requires 3.14 winning-hits just to make up the ground of a previously lost Inside-Number wager.

Take a look and see what I mean:
[tr][td][b][color=Red][center]BET-TYPE[/center][/color][/b][/td][td][color=Red][center][b]Average Required Hits to Pay for Itself [/b][/center][/color][/td][/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]FIELD-bet [i] triple-pay 12[/i][/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]0.84 hits[/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Field-bet [i] double-pay 12[/i][/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]0.89 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Inside[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]3.14 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Across[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]4.27 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Outside[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]2.54 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Even[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]2.84 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Iron Cross [i]Anything-but-7[/i][/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]5.37 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Place-bet 6 & 8[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]1.71 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Place-bet 5 & 9[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]1.43 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Place-bet 4 &10[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]1.11 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Place/Bought 4 & 10[/center][size=1][center]in optimal $[/center][/size][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]1.02 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [/td][/tr]


Utility/Volatility Index

I mentioned above how the Field-bet has a high utilization-rate, which makes it very efficient not only in terms of paying for itself, but also in making up lost ground on previous losses. When you combine that with an ultra-low volatility-rate; you end up with a bet that offers the skilled dice-influencer all kinds of bet-making flexibility.

Again, the Utility/Volatility Index is just a fancy way of answering the important question of, “How much does this wager pay on average, and how frequently will it hit?”

Whenever we are making a bet, we have to ask ourselves what we expect our wagered-investment to produce on a per-hit basis, as well as how often we expect it to produce one of those payouts.

In other words, the skilled player has to ask himself, “How useful is this bet that I am about to make, and what are my chances of producing a net-profit from it?

Here’s the answer:

[tr][td][b][color=Red][center]BET-TYPE[/center][/color][/b][/td][td][color=Red][center][b] UTILITY/VOLATILITY Index [/b] [i] How [b]MUCH [/b]does it PAY combined with how [b]FREQUENTLY [/b]it will HIT[/i][/center][/color][/td][/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]FIELD-bet [i] triple-pay 12[/i][/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b] [size=1]118.5 payback-rate x 44.44% expectancy =[/size] [color=Limegreen]52.66[/color] utility[/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Field-bet [i] double-pay 12[/i][/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b] [size=1]112.6 payback-rate x 44.44% expectancy =[/size] [color=Limegreen]50.0[/color] utility [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Inside[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b] [size=1]31.8 payback-rate x 50% expectancy =[/size] [color=Limegreen]15.9[/color] utility [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Across[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b][size=1]23.4 payback-rate x 66.66% expectancy = [/size] [color=Limegreen]15.6[/color] utility [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Outside[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b] [size=1]39.3 payback-rate x 38.88% expectancy = [/size] [color=Limegreen]15.3[/color] utility [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Even[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b] [size=1]35.2 payback-rate x 44.44% expectancy =[/size] [color=Limegreen]15.6[/color] utility [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Iron Cross [i]Anything-but-7[/i][/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b] [size=1]18.6 payback-rate x 83.33% expectancy =[/size] [color=Limegreen]15.5[/color] utility [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Place-bet 6 & 8[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b] [size=1]58.3 payback-rate x 27.77% expectancy =[/size] [color=Limegreen]16.2[/color] utility [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Place-bet 5 & 9[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b] [size=1]70.0 payback-rate x 22.22% expectancy = [/size] [color=Limegreen]15.6[/color] utility [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Place-bet 4 &10[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b] [size=1]90.0 payback-rate x 16.66% expectancy = [/size] [color=Limegreen]15.0[/color] utility [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Place/Bought 4 & 10[/center][size=1][center]in optimal $[/center][/size][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b] [size=1]98.0 payback-rate x 16.66% expectancy =[/size] [color=Limegreen]16.3[/color] utility [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [/td][/tr]


A Field-bet In The Hands of a Dice-Influencer

So how does the Field-bet perform in the hands of a dice-influencer, and what is the average-case scenario based on various SRR-rates?

For “triple-pay on the 12” Field-bets:

[tr][td][b][color=Limegreen][center]Sevens to Rolls Ratio[/center][/color][/b][/td][td][color=Limegreen][center]Average Field #’s/36 rolls[/center][/color][/td][td][color=Limegreen][center]Average Non-Field #’s/36 rolls[/center][/color][/td][td][color=Limegreen][center]Field Revenue minus Field Losses[/center][/color][/td][td][color=Limegreen][center]Net-Profit/36 rolls based on $5 flat Field-bets[/center][/color][/td][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Player-Edge per Roll[/center][/b][/color][/td][/tr][tr][td][color=Red][b]SRR-6[/b][/color][/td][td][center]16.00[/center][/td][td][center]20.00[/center][/td][td][center]$95.00 - $100[/center][/td][td][center]-$5.00[/center][/td][td] [color=Red][b] [center]-2.77%[/center][/b][/color][/td][/tr][tr][td][color=Limegreen][b]SRR-7[/b][/color][/td][td][center]16.46[/center][/td][td][center]19.54[/center][/td][td][center]$97.77 - $97.70[/center][/td][td][center]$0.07[/center][/td][td] [b][color=Limegreen] [center]+0.03%[/center][/color][/b][/td][/tr][tr][td][color=Limegreen][b]SRR-8[/b][/color][/td][td][center]16.80[/center][/td][td][center]19.20[/center][/td][td][center]$99.79 - $96.00[/center][/td][td][center]$3.79[/center][/td][td] [b][color=Limegreen] [center]+2.11%[/center][/color][/b][/td][/tr][tr][td][color=Limegreen][b]SRR-9[/b][/color][/td][td][center]17.06[/center][/td][td][center]18.94[/center][/td][td][center]$101.34 - $94.70[/center][/td][td][center]$6.34[/center][/td][td] [b][color=Limegreen] [center]+3.69%[/center][/color][/b][/td][/tr][tr][td][color=Limegreen][b]SRR-10[/b][/color][/td][td][center]17.28[/center][/td][td][center]18.72[/center][/td][td][center]$102.64 - $93.60[/center][/td][td][center]$9.04[/center][/td][td] [b][color=Limegreen] [center]+5.02%[/center][/color][/b][/td][/tr][tr][td][color=Limegreen][b]SRR-11[/b][/color][/td][td][center]17.45[/center][/td][td][center]18.55[/center][/td][td][center]$103.65 - $92.75[/center][/td][td][center]$10.90[/center][/td][td] [b][color=Limegreen] [center]+6.06%[/center][/color][/b][/td][/tr][tr][td][color=Limegreen][b]SRR-12[/b][/color][/td][td][center]18.13[/center][/td][td][center]17.87[/center][/td][td][center]$107.69 - $89.35[/center][/td][td][center]$18.34[/center][/td][td] [b][color=Limegreen] [center]+10.19%[/center][/color][/b][/td][/tr]


For “double-pay on the 12” Field-bets:

[tr][td][b][color=Limegreen][center]Sevens to Rolls Ratio[/center][/color][/b][/td][td][color=Limegreen][center]Average Field #’s/36 rolls[/center][/color][/td][td][color=Limegreen][center]Average Non-Field #’s/36 rolls[/center][/color][/td][td][color=Limegreen][center]Field Revenue minus Field Losses[/center][/color][/td][td][color=Limegreen][center]Net-Profit/36 rolls based on $5 flat Field-bets[/center][/color][/td][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Player-Edge per Roll[/center][/b][/color][/td][/tr][tr][td][color=Red][b]SRR-6[/b][/color][/td][td][center]16.00[/center][/td][td][center]20.00[/center][/td][td][center]$90.00 - $100[/center][/td][td][center]-$10.00[/center][/td][td] [color=Red][b] [center]-5.55%[/center][/b][/color][/td][/tr][tr][td][color=Limegreen][b]SRR-7[/b][/color][/td][td][center]16.46[/center][/td][td][center]19.54[/center][/td][td][center]$92.67 - $97.70[/center][/td][td][center]-$5.03[/center][/td][td] [b][color=Red] [center]-2.79%[/center][/color][/b][/td][/tr][tr][td][color=Limegreen][b]SRR-8[/b][/color][/td][td][center]16.80[/center][/td][td][center]19.20[/center][/td][td][center]$94.58 - $96.00[/center][/td][td][center]-$1.42[/center][/td][td] [b][color=Red] [center]-0.79%[/center][/color][/b][/td][/tr][tr][td][color=Limegreen][b]SRR-9[/b][/color][/td][td][center]17.06[/center][/td][td][center]18.94[/center][/td][td][center]$96.05 - $94.70[/center][/td][td][center]$1.35[/center][/td][td] [b][color=Limegreen] [center]+0.75%[/center][/color][/b][/td][/tr][tr][td][color=Limegreen][b]SRR-10[/b][/color][/td][td][center]17.28[/center][/td][td][center]18.72[/center][/td][td][center]$97.29 - $93.60[/center][/td][td][center]$3.69[/center][/td][td] [b][color=Limegreen] [center]+2.05%[/center][/color][/b][/td][/tr][tr][td][color=Limegreen][b]SRR-11[/b][/color][/td][td][center]17.45[/center][/td][td][center]18.55[/center][/td][td][center]$98.24 - $92.75[/center][/td][td][center]$5.49[/center][/td][td] [b][color=Limegreen] [center]+3.05%[/center][/color][/b][/td][/tr][tr][td][color=Limegreen][b]SRR-12[/b][/color][/td][td][center]18.13[/center][/td][td][center]17.87[/center][/td][td][center]$102.07 - $89.35[/center][/td][td][center]+$12.72[/center][/td][td] [b][color=Limegreen] [center]+7.07%[/center][/color][/b][/td][/tr]

Now tell the truth; that’s pretty much Everything Your Mama DIDN’T Tell You About The Field-bet.

Wait ‘til I tell you how to turn this so-called ‘dummy’ bet into a stone-cold money-maker…but that’s for next time.


MP[/size]

Mad Professor
Posts: 1830
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm

Re: 5 vs 9 betting leverage

Post by Mad Professor » Thu Oct 10, 2013 10:33 am

The more we investigate WHERE our dice-influencing edge comes from, and the more we understand HOW that edge can be exploited; the closer we come to fully utilizing our precision-shooting skills in an optimal lowest-risk/highest-reward way.

That means that we old dogs who are still willing to learn some new tricks, can get much better rewards from our casino action.

Using our precision-shooting skills in a lowest-risk/highest-reward way means that we have to at least consider using some types of bets that we as 'gamblers' in our previous life, have long rejected. A prime example would be the oft-criticized Field-wager.

As I explained in my previous post in this thread, the strong feelings that many random-rollers rightfully should have against the Field is often unnecessarily carried over to their bet-decisions when they become advantage-play dice-influencers…and that isn’t necessarily a good thing.

When you have a wager with such a high-frequency, low-volatility bet-utilization rate as the Field-bet does; more and more open-minded players are discovering that the Field-bet can be an excellent choice in terms of exploiting their current D-I talents in an incredibly low-risk/high-reward way.

That fact becomes especially evident when they realize that the Field-bet offers a multi-number catchment that is similar to other global-bets (like Inside, Across, Outside, Even, etc); without burdening their session-bankroll with a disproportionate ratio between dollars-exposed-to-a-7-Out versus dollars-winnable-with-one-paying-hit.

~For example, when you wager $22-Inside , that entire wagered amount is exposed to a 7-Out, but it only offers a $7 payout in return for one winning hit. In other words, $22-Inside covers 50% of all possible outcomes but only rewards that exposure with a 31.8% per-hit return-on-investment (R.O.I.).

~On the other hand, the Field-bet offers a better rate-of-return with a lower exposure-rate by paying an average of $5.94/per-hit on a ‘triple-pay 12’ $5 wager (118% per-hit R.O.I.), and an average of $5.63/per-hit on a ‘double-pay 12’ $5 wager (113% per-hit R.O.I.) all the while covering a little over 44% of all possible outcomes.

Most importantly though; when you consider the fact that the Field is a one-roll “every outcome is a bet-decision” wager…that is an incredibly GOOD thing for a dice-influencer (even though it continues to be a BAD thing for the random-roller).

Here’s why:

When you have a validated edge over a given bet, the advantage-player WANTS as many bet-decisions as possible. That is how he makes his money.

If a bet is just idly sitting on the layout, neither winning nor losing with each subsequent toss; then your money is asleep. With each subsequent roll that does not produce a decision, your money may not be losing…but neither is it producing any winners nor is it rewarding the edge you have over the house.

If you have the edge over the house, you want your money to be working and you want to get the maximum number of DECISIONS on your positive-expectation wagers as FREQUENTLY as possible.

Just as the casino wants gamblers to be exposed to as many negative-expectation bet-decisions per hour as possible (because that is how the house makes its money off of its negative EV edge); so too, the advantage-play dice-influencer wants his wagers to be exposed to as many positive-expectation bet-decisions per hour...because that is how he makes money off of his positive EV edge over the house.

Again, Bet-DECISIONS are how you make money off of your positive-EV wagers.

The whole idea behind dice-influencing is to wager when you HAVE the edge…and to lay off the bets when you DON’T.

If you have a validated edge over a given wager…you should be taking advantage of it as often as possible.

The Field-bet simply lets you exploit your positive-expectation edge over the casino in a low-risk/high-reward manner on a high-frequency every-roll-is-a-decision basis.

The more positive-edge bets you can make and the more frequently you can have them decided…the more money you make...

...at least, that's how this Old Dog learned some New Tricks and has been getting Better Rewards as a result.


MP

Mad Professor
Posts: 1830
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm

Re: 5 vs 9 betting leverage

Post by Mad Professor » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:00 am

Return-ON-Investment Starts with the Return-OF-Investment


Before we can start talking about how much profit our current dice-influencing skills should be producing; we really have to first look at how good they have to be just to get your initial investment back to the break-even point.

In other words, we should first look at the return OF our wagering investments before we start talking about the return that our dice-influencing skills might earn ON our wagering investments.

One of the primary factors that plays into that equation is the number of winning-hits that each bet requires in order to fully pay for itself.

The rule of thumb is: the more wagers that you have spread out on the table; the more winning hits you'll need to fully pay for their total exposure to a 7-Out.

For example:

~A simple $6 Place-bet on the 8 pays $7, so this wager pays for itself with just one winning-hit…and in doing so, it provides a 16.66% profit in the process ($1 profit on a $6 investment).

When you are making a single-bet, the minimum hit-rate required (for that solo-number wager to fully pay for itself) is almost always one, unless of course you are betting against a number on the Darkside, in which case the odds and payouts are reversed.

However, on the Rightside, when we make two or more bets on two or more different numbers at the same time; the number of winning-hits required for all of our 7-exposure action to be fully paid for (before we even get anywhere close to a net-profit), increases rather dramatically.

For example:

~If we make concurrent $6 Place-bets on both the 6 and the 8; then one winning-hit still pays $7, but it’s no longer enough to fully cover our total $12 investment. To do so would take an average of 1.71 winning-hits. In this case, one paying-hit only provides a 58.33% return OF our original investment, and it falls short in terms of producing any net-profit ON our investment until we roll a second paying-hit.

Likewise, as we spread our money out to cover more and more wagers, we subsequently need more and more hits (or a Steep Regression) just to cover the basic outlay that we’ve wagered.

Here’s what I mean:

~If we make an Inside-bet (covering the 5, 6, 8, and 9); it takes 3.14 winning-hits to pay for itself (that’s for the full return OF our investment) before we can even start talking about the potential profit any subsequent paying-hits may produce (that would be the sometimes elusive return ON our investment).

In other words, in requiring 3.14 winning-hits to fully return the initial outlay that we've wagered on our Inside-Number bet; one winning outcome only returns 31.8% of our initial investment; we would have to wait until the fourth winning hit until we see a positive return ON our investment.

Here’s how several multi-number global-bets break down when you consider the number of winning-hits it takes to get a full return OF your wagering-investment:


[tr][td][b][color=Red][center]BET-TYPE[/center][/color][/b][/td][td][color=Red][center][b]Average PAYBACK per Winning Hit [/b][/center][/color][/td] [td][color=Red][center][b]Average Required Hits to Pay for Itself [/b][/center][/color][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]FIELD-bet [i] triple-pay 12[/i][/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]118.5%[/b][/center][/td] [td][center][b]0.84 hits[/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Field-bet [i] double-pay 12[/i][/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]112.6%[/b][/center][/td] [td][center][b]0.89 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Inside[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]31.8%[/b][/center][/td] [td][center][b]3.14 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Across[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]23.4%[/b][/center][/td] [td][center][b]4.27 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Outside[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]39.3%[/b][/center][/td] [td][center][b]2.54 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Even[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]35.2%[/b][/center][/td] [td][center][b]2.84 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Iron Cross [i] Anything-but-7[/i][/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]18.6%[/b][/center][/td] [td][center][b]5.37 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Place-bet 6 & 8[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]58.3%[/b][/center][/td] [td][center][b]1.71 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Place-bet 5 & 9[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]70.0%[/b][/center][/td] [td][center][b]1.43 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Place-bet 4 &10[/center][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]90.0%[/b][/center][/td] [td][center][b]1.11 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [tr][td][color=Limegreen][b][center]Place/Bought 4 & 10[/center][size=1][center]in optimal $[/center][/size][/b][/color][/td][td][center][b]98.0%[/b][/center][/td] [td][center][b]1.02 hits [/b][/center][/td] [/tr] [/td][/tr]

When considering any betting-method, it’s always wise to first consider just how many winning hits those wagers will require to fully pay for themselves.

If those methods require you to go deep into the expected-duration of your point-cycle before your bets start to yield a net-profit; you may want to rethink your strategy.

By first looking at the hit-rate required to bring a higher level of consistency to the return OF your wagering investments; the smart advantage-player is more likely to fashion a realistic geared-to-skill betting-regimen that allows for a quicker, more consistent return ON your wagering investments too.

In other words, a strong and consistent return ON your investment starts with a strong and consistent return OF your investment.


MP


Knick111
Posts: 1245
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:21 pm

Re: 5 vs 9 betting leverage

Post by Knick111 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:56 am

Hi Irish and MP.,

Irish you are wrong, His real name is-

Racso retsaoroz girdahp caasi namron lekneh leunnamme seiorbma sggid. [ aka: ] mad professor.

gargoil
Posts: 610
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:47 am

Re: 5 vs 9 betting leverage

Post by gargoil » Thu Oct 10, 2013 1:22 pm

What if before a point you bet the do and don't $10 a piece. When a point is made bet the place bets 10 outside and 12 on 6 and 8 plus 10 odds on your do. Total should be equal to +- $85. Increase your Don't to $100.

What you need is a few numbers to hit then Seven. You made a profit.
If a the point hit 1 or 2 rolls after then you made some money but you are in the negative. My experience has been in the case where a table is full of randies and no DI, This is the way to go.

Any thoughts?
==================================================
Practice doesn't make perfect.... Practice reduces the imperfection.
Practice doesn't make perfect.... It just makes you better.

Michael
Posts: 264
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2011 11:05 pm

Re: 5 vs 9 betting leverage

Post by Michael » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:08 pm

How do you increase your don't bet to $100 after the point is set ?
Rock On
M & M

gargoil
Posts: 610
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:47 am

Re: 5 vs 9 betting leverage

Post by gargoil » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:31 pm

Maybe I am incorrect (that's why I am on this forum.. To learn) but I thought the Don't is just like the pass line you can increase it at anytime.
I've never played on the dark side so not very familiar with that side of betting
==================================================
Practice doesn't make perfect.... Practice reduces the imperfection.
Practice doesn't make perfect.... It just makes you better.

wild child
Posts: 1522
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:29 pm

Re: 5 vs 9 betting leverage

Post by wild child » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:31 pm

With the Do/Don't of EQUAL $ VALUE on the Pass Line ,once the POINT is established and ZERO
NADA,NO other $ WAGERED the result would be A WASH when the HAND terminated in a DECISION

either THE POINT # REPEATS or THE POINT # goes down ( FAILS TO PASS ) due to THE SEVEN showing prior to the P/L number....

The dealers & the Box Person may smilingly tell you and all in earshot the DO / DON'T is like kissing your sister.......You could ( with a smile ) remind them that BOTH are legal in your state... :roll:

A COME OUT TWELVE ( 12 ) will cause your PASS LINE Wager to be swept away and since
the TWELVE is BARED , in that portion of the DO/DO NOT WAGER is not rewarded ...

You could place $ WAGERED on the TWELVE ( 12 ) THE HOWEVER FACTOR is should the
TWELVE ( 12 ) be a no show, you down the $amount of your HEDGE WAGER on the twelve
and minus the PASS LINE $ as that WAGER loses to a COME OUT MIDNIGHT...

That aside ,should you PLACE the other FIVE ( 5 ) BOX NUMBERS and ONE NUMBER SHOW
YOU WIN 100 % equal to the $ VALUE PAY OUT on chip(s) at risk that showed.....
( P S O a different story )

Were you to take down ALL YOUR WAGERS except the P/L ( a contract WAGER )at that moment
and leave the D/P in place minus the $ 100 ( or whatever amount ) LAY BET WAGER...the hand
would continue until A DECISION was reached and you would have the proceeds of the winning wager plus your original stake.............

Try that 1,000 times over one long weekend and there are obvious options ( FLAWS )....
Stay at it TOO LONG and ................................................


W C

Laying ODDS could blow up on you should the NUMBER PASS ( RE PEAT )....It happens....

shunkaha

Re: 5 vs 9 betting leverage

Post by shunkaha » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:09 am

gargoil wrote:Maybe I am incorrect (that's why I am on this forum.. To learn) but I thought the Don't is just like the pass line you can increase it at anytime.
I've never played on the dark side so not very familiar with that side of betting
You would be incorrect, you may increase a PL bet because the odds are in the casino's favor, you may not remove the PL because the odds are in the casino's favor, you may remove your DP because the odds are in your favor, you may not increase the DP because the odds are in your favor.

The easy answer to every question you might have is, whatever helps the casino is permissible, if it helps you it probably is not. Remember, these are the people that consider keeping up with what cards are dealt at blackjack to understand whether statistically you should expect an advantage, do you really think they would EVER knowing allow you to openly have an advantage?

The reason the casino doesn't allow you to increase the DP after a point [they let you decrease it] is you'd play a $5 DP and on a comeout 7 or 11 you'd lose the $5 but upon setting a point you'd max the DP without odds, that means you'd get paid even money on a 7 out so, lets say it was a 4, you'd have 6 ways to win and 3 to loose, so in theory you'd win 2x what you lost... but more to the point you could max out your credit card before you went and everytime you had that 4 or 10 you could max to $5,000 on the DP while placing the number for for $3400, either way you'd win roughly $1600. Obviously you can see how the casino would not be amused because you started the front end of that with $5 risk until you had a point set then you locked in $1600 by upping the one and hedges the opposite side of it. The same scheme would apply to the other numbers just not the same figures so you'd still always win and by always I mean ALWAYS unless you had such a small bankroll the $5 comeouts killed you.

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