Why do odds lower the house advantage over you??

Setting and influencing the dice roll is just part of the picture. To beat the dice you have to know how to bet the dice. Whether you call it a "system," a "strategy," or just a way to play - this is the place to discuss it.

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jjjjjj

Why do odds lower the house advantage over you??

Post by jjjjjj » Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:24 pm

Craps experts: A point of 4 has been placed. You have $5 on the pass or don't pass. How does taking or laying odds increase or decrease the chance of the shooting making the point?? Of course it does nothing to increase or decrease that event...so I dont get why odds lower the house edge....

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Re: Why do odds lower the house advantage over you??

Post by heavy » Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:30 am

Because the payout on the free odds bet it a correct payoff. Let's say you have a $10 Pass line bet. On the come out roll the odds are in your favor. That's because there are eight ways to win (six ways to make the seven - two ways to make the eleven) versus four ways to lose (one way each on the two and twelve plus two ways on the three craps). Now, if NEITHER of those things occur then you'll establish a point. Regardless of what that point is - the house now has an advantage over it. There are six ways to roll a seven (house wins) versus five ways to roll the six or eight, four ways to roll the five or nine, or three ways to roll the four or ten. Let's take the four or ten and use them as our example - use the four as you suggested. You are going to lose that four wager once it is established as the point twice for every one time you lose it. But the "free odds bet" (nothing is really free because you must make a pass or don't pass bet before you can play the free odds wager) pays you the correct 2 - 1 odds. Bet $10 behind the line and you win $20. Make sense? So where you had a $10 Pass Line bet that was going to lose twice for every one time it won - by adding the free odds - on that one time you win - you win twice as much on that odds portion. In this example - your $10 Pass Line plus $10 free odds wins you $30 total. That effectively reduces the odds on the total bet - and thereby improves the Pass Line bet itself. Again, this concept sort of overlooks the fact that you have to have what I consider to be a bad bet (the Pass Line) before you can get the good bet (Free Odds).

Now, just a couple of more thoughts. When you factor all of the possible Pass Line points together and average them out you'll find that on average you'll lose your established Pass Line bet two out of three times. In a way, craps is almost a zero sum game. While the Pass Line is losing two out of three times once the point is established - the Don't Pass wins two out of three times once the point is established. Of course, the problem with that is getting a point established on the Don'ts. Remember? That Pass Line bet wins 2 - 1 over the Don't Pass on the Come Out - plus they bar the twelve. Bottom line - it's their game and they have the edge on every bet . . . unless, of course, you can influence the dice and take advantage of it.

Last of all, while the Free Odds bet is absolutely the best bet on the table - you're still subjected to short-term bankroll volatility when playing it. The higher the odds amount allowed relative to your bankroll - the greater the volatility. That's why I could walk around the pit in the Horseshoe in Bossier City tonight - where they have a 100x odds game - and check out four or five open (full) tables and probably not find more than 2 or 3 of them taking max odds. Think about it. A $10 100x odds game. Are you prepared to back every Pass or Come Bet with $1000 Free Odds? For most players - it would only take one or two of those "three numbers and out" hands to put us out of business.
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Re: Why do odds lower the house advantage over you??

Post by wudged » Mon Jan 21, 2013 7:48 am

To put it a bit more bluntly: house advantage is how much money the casino will take versus your total bet, which is completely different than the odds of the outcome of the game

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