Help MP- World on CO with ATS and 3x regression?

[dork]

MP, I need your advice... I think I'm at least even betting on the World when I roll. My problem is I'm not making "big" money... I need some advice on my opening wagers and my entire betting strategy. I'll buy in with $400-600 on a $3 or $5 table.

I'm a sucker; I'll bet the ATS for $6-11 depending on how I feel--either a 2-2-2 on RR's or a 3-5-3 on me or lately, a 2-6-2 on myself. Used to be I'd bet only 3-4-3, but as "often" as I've hit the ALL, I've never seemed to have the money apportioned "well". So I've been experimenting with smaller 'Tall' and 'Small' bets, and larger 'ALL' bets. Of course, I haven't hit the ALL since changing strategies; I've left the ALL dangling by one number at least 4x since the change. It wasn't fruitless though because I was able to lay against a 6 and 9 on separate occasions before I rolled the red. Monetarily, Laying the last point has net me roughly about like I'd bet a 2-2-2.

Coupled with the $6-$11 ATS bet, I'll bet a $10 World and a $5 or $10 PL bet. I set the dice for 1/5-1/5. (After the CO, I usually set for a 6/3-6/2.) My problem is I can't string 3 Horn numbers together. I've strung 7 World numbers together, but the 7 kills profits because I'm using the winning PL bet to fund the ATS. It's not uncommon at all for me to roll 3 World numbers, but almost always, one of them is the Red.

When the World pays, I always press it by $10. I should be makin' decent money on the World's appearance, but I can't figure a way past the ATS betting loss when the 7 comes during the Come Out. I've been thinking a lot about changing my strategy and playing "only for" World and ATS results. I was thinking maybe I should reduce the ATS to a 1-3-1 bet, and bet $25 World with a $25 PL bet. I HATE the idea of using so much money on an even bet, but as often as I double-pitch, I should face the notion that it might be the best play. However, I also can't figure out what my 'after-bets' should be... I'm thinking that on a first-winner World bet, I should press the World by $10 on the 3, $25 on the 11, and $50 on the first 1/12. That would net me enough to bet $25 as single odds on the PL and still break even with my World bets (when they win... the big 'IF'), having funded only the $25 PL bet. Pressing the World is just a vague notion to me in the $25 sphere... I haven't figured out how a 2nd consecutive World winner should pressed. Hell, I'm still figuring out that I should step with this strategy to the quieter tables... ain't never anyone at the $25 table at IP. I could play by myself until the high rollers come in.

As a gauge of my betting tolerance, I'll outline my current play-- I'll play $5 PL with 5x Odds, and Place $30 each on the inside numbers for two hits. I'll regress to $26/27 Across after two hits. I'm not uncomfortable with ~$129 at risk, but it's not real easy psychologically, either. I'm easily comfortable with $52/54 Across with $5 PL and $25 odds as an "opener" when I'm just testing the table and my throw. If I'm $75 ahead on a hand, I'll use some of it to increase the PL Odds, up to 10x (which is the table max). On a real hot streak, I've added $10 to the PL bet and bet $150 Odds (after regressing back from about $400 on the Box numbers to $26 Across). So I guess I'm willing to risk $50-90 comfortably "per roll" between the PL and the Box numbers....

If I wanna profit better from the Come Out while betting the ATS and the World, should I change my strategy and stop betting the Box numbers? What percentage of the Buy In should I allot for all CO play if I stop betting the box numbers? I think I'm spread too thin with my current strategies since I'm only buying in with $400-600, but I can't figure out what my best betting strategy should be. Give up the ATS? The different possibilities are makin' my head hurt.

Thanks, MP!

[Mad Professor]

Hi Dork,

I'll start off by reiterating my suggestions from the "ATS" thread:

For random-betting, ANY money on the A-T-S wager is a sucker's bet; but for a skilled-shooter, it can be quite effective.

To my thinking though, the bet-weight pyramid for the ATS wager should be INVERTED in a similar fashion to H's $2-$1-$2 outlay.

In fact, I like an even steeper inversion (depending on your casino's table-limits on that bet); such as $5-$2-$5 or even $8-$3-$8 when a skilled-shooter has the dice.

So for example, on a $10 ATS outlay, you might be better off wagering $4-$2-$4 on yourself, and perhaps $2-$1-$2 on other DI's...and $0-$0-$0 on random-rollers.

Now as far as using the Come-out cycle as a sort of GWAG (GameWithinaGame); I myself have moved away from that approach over the years because it tends to increase volatility without being as accretive as it could be were those same GWAG monies added to (on top of) your best-advantage point-cycle wagers.

That is to say, if you are wagering $25 in additional non-PL money during the Come-out phase of each hand that you toss; then those same monies equate to an increase of around $90 in increased Place-bets during the point-cycle.

Why is that?

Just consider the house-edge that you are trying to overcome on those Prop-bets, and compare them to the house-edge you are trying to overcome on your point-cycle Place-bets. In effect, your skilled-shooting needs to be about three-times better to beat the Prop-bets than it needs to be in order to beat the Place-bets.

However, if you insist on maintaining a GWAG approach; then let's try to make the most of it.

You would have to take a look at your actual in-casino advantage to get the next part 'weighted' just right; but I'm thinking an asymmetrical Horn-arrangement might be the way to go.

For example, if you use a $25 PL wager, then a $3 Two...$3 Twelve...$5 Yo...and $9 Trey; that would put you in pretty good stead should one of them hit. If you want to forego the Yo-11 altogether; that wouldn't be a bad idea either.

~If one of them hits, you can double the entire H-wager.

~If it hits again, increase them all by 50%.

~If any of them hit again for the third time, increase them all by 25%.




MP

[Bankerdude80]

I acquired the bad habit (its bad because of the HA) of betting the World bet during the come-out cycle. On a $10 minimum table I will
start with $10 on the passline, $5 World, $1 Ace-Deuce. If I throw a seven, I collect $5 and press the World $5 and replace the
Ace-Deuce for $1. If I toss a 2,11,or 12, I press the World $5. I'll press up the seven by $5 each time only after l I've recouped my
initial $6 outlay. I continue this adventure until it ends. It can be quite profitable unless I am having difficulty throwing the horn
numbers. I have to watch that very closely.

[dork]

Time for a report--it's not that I haven't been listening or reading...

I played alone early this morning at my 'second' casino; I was the only shooter. Started out with an end-heavy 4-2-4 ATS because I ran an 18-box numbers roll earlier at another casino on my initial hand there and only made $70 on my $2 All Tall. Felt like I'd gypped myself, so for the second casino, I started their morning 4-2-4. But I wasn't rolling very well, and lost every "ALL" bet I placed. Fortunately, I only bet the 4-2-4 twice, and kept a constant 2-2-2 for the other 4 or 5 or 6 times. Not much consolation for the loss, but at least the control in the bet is better.

Now to the meat... I reduced the ATS from a usual $10 bet to "half" because I decided to try MP's assymetrical Horn bet... with a revision. I throw too many double pitches, so my home evaluation led me astray... I bet the $6 Hi-Low, the $9 Trey, and the $5 Yo, but I included a $5 Red, making my bet a true $25 "World-like" distribution. I put out the $25 PL bet, too. That made me itch every time. In 40 minutes of play, I never rolled more than 5 box numbers in a hand. That is to say, I hit the All Small once, and never got any box number past $24 after starting out $26/27 Across--that's parlayed betting too, not 'up one unit' betting. That's pretty miserable. No PSO's though...

And the good news is, I stuck to MP's plan. For me, it took a lot of "faith". I lost the first CO "World"--6 is the point. Three rolls later, "6". I throw out another $25 for the Props. Nine. So far all I've done is 'accelerate' my losing at $25 a whack on the CO... Nine! Get paid $70 for my $25 PL and 30 Odds... my gods are smilin' on me. I've hit 4 box numbers and I've not yet covered my bets, but I'm close...

Again, I bet MP's Horn with an additional $5 Red. $25 PL $25 PL !?? . I'll cut to it... for the session, here's how that bet paid-- 3, point-- 3, point-- 2, point-- 3, 11, point-- with four 7's interspersed amongst those Prop payoffs. I was only able to get the Double-Up to pay off once, and unfortunately, the 11 was the repeater. Then, with that point (6), I set for the 6/3-6/2, and roll (no lie): 12, 3, 2, 11, 3, 8, Out. ONE stinkin' roll out of sync... but those are just numbers--they'd have never come up with my 1/5-1/5 CO set.

So, with minimal play, I ended up 'even'. Amazingly, without the CO "World" bets, I'd have been down almost $300. Like an idiot, I didn't count the losing number of "World" bets, but it would have probably amounted to about $150 of that total. Next time, I'll set up counters for the "World" bets.

(Related to the tipping thread I started, I tipped too much again. But I felt it was worth it. The new scheme really affected my betting strategy, and I kept forgetting 'things'; I figured that I didn't have a big enough buy-in or psyche to put up with my more common "$90 Inside 2-hit Regression" strategy, coupled with a $45 wager increase on the CO, $25 being a one-roll bet. I felt comfortable with a scheme intended to chase the Horn numbers and playing the boxes as the 'distraction' rather than the other way around during this initial excursion.)

Maybe I got extremely lucky to hit as many "payoffs" as I did (including points) to keep me afloat, but this portion is written to report on tipping--3 times the dealers stalled me--prompted me to either increase my Odds bet (from a $10 Odds on the 6 and 8 to at least $25, which I declined--my logic being that "full odds" only pays $1 over even money, and though it is pure odds at reduced "HA", there's already almost as much out there as a $90 Across-regression strategy jeopardizes for "two" rolls; though I did take at least $25 Odds on the 4/5/9/10). I was reminded twice that my ATS had fallen. I misspoke and said "$3 Ace-Deuce" and Stick said, "you mean '$9', right?". A new stick came in, gave me a look of puzzled slight-annoyance, and all three on the other side said, "6 HiLo, 9 A-D, and 5 YoRed", I doubled the bet those several times I'd gotten paid, and one dealer would chant, 12 HiLo 18 A-D, 10 YoRed. Three times they told me, 'you gotta hit the back wall with both dice, this ain't the "Other Casino", but I was paid after those warnings for one 3 and an 11 on short rolls, along with several box numbers and at least one point. The 11 was a repeater; nothing was ever said again about the short rolls. Which is why I'll not name the casino where I was playing.

I hit the $2 All Small and gave $20 for the tip box, $25 after I hit the repeater 11 on the "world"; and when I quit, I'd rough-guessed myself at shy $50 from being even. Turns out I was up $19. I never rolled a hand that hit more than 5 box numbers. This table's a lot less bouncy than the earlier table this morning. I short-rolled about 40% of the rolls here, and not hardly a peep. I gave'm the $19 and added $25. As little protest as I got for short-rolling the CO's I felt fortunate not to have heard a LOT more heat. I gotta get better at estimating "hundreds" in a laying roll of reds. Mebbe I should mark my finger (for a ruler) 'cause it's sure I can't eyeball it like a dealer can. Sooo... I wish I'd tracked better. I wonder how the $90 Across 2-hit regression and this new CO would have done... probably not nearly as well since I was shooting the point like a 4-roll-and-out RR.

Thanks, MP!

[Mad Professor]

Thanks, MP!

No prob, it's my pleasure to help.


MP

[DarthNater]

Dork,
Just curious, if you are hitting more 3s than 11s, combined with 2s & 12s, then not making the points; wouldn't you be better off on the Don't Pass, vice the Pass? Sure you're bucking the devil on the come out, but you have that already covered with the $5 Red - perhaps a $7 Red instead?

Also, I used to play some GWAG, but found I preferred ATS, as for me it seemed like conflicting strategies, especially since I've settled on playing my come-out set & point set to be the same v-3 variant with the outlook that the come-out is a "warmup" for me.

MP - I still have your GWAG writings, I think I've missed your ATS writings, care to share a link?

Thanks, D.N8r

[Mad Professor]

Hi Darth,

I have quite a body of A-T-S content over on the Dice Institute message-board; but the essence of it really boils down to what I posted in the second entry in this thread.

Most everyone here usually likes the bumpersticker-length lessons and aren't at all interested in knowing how the sausage gets made; however, if you still want the links to all that, I would be happy to provide them. Just let me know.


MP

[dork]

Dork,
Just curious, if you are hitting more 3s than 11s, combined with 2s & 12s, then not making the points; wouldn't you be better off on the Don't Pass, vice the Pass? Sure you're bucking the devil on the come out, but you have that already covered with the $5 Red - perhaps a $7 Red instead?

...

I haven't tracked my actual GWAG numbers enough to figure out if I should favor the DP. Right off the cuff without any thought whatsoever, I'd say that I'm on the PL mainly because (right now as I experiment with this) I'm looking to make my point and tally up lots of (box) numbers. I thought I'd try the GWAG as an added payoff strategy while simultaneously attempting to fill out the ends of the ATS. This last session was pretty mediocre; I was able to survive financially, but the dice results were about as poor as I've experienced without a record number of PSO/PPSO's. But...

You make a very good point about playing the Don'ts--MP wrote another article... I can't remember the title or topic but it offered a pointed 'contrarian' thought--that when the 7 comes, the Don't play counts his winnings by ADDING his bets to the payoff, where the PL bettor subtracts ALL his bets from the accumulated payoffs. I've wondering about that, too... thinkin' to use an end-heavy <$7 ATS as a cheap hedge for when I can't hit a 7. In that case, I'd bet a $25 DP with $30-50 odds and the $7 Red as you say, but I haven't tried it or gamed it at home. As a wannabe DI, the 7 should appear more than randomly if I have any control, so...

[Mad Professor]

You make a very good point about playing the Don'ts--MP wrote another article... I can't remember the title or topic but it offered a pointed 'contrarian' thought--that when the 7 comes, the Don't play counts his winnings by ADDING his bets to the payoff, where the PL bettor subtracts ALL his bets from the accumulated payoffs.

Yep, that's the old Darkside Paradox!

The what?

The Darkside Paradox

Jun 7, 2008, 3:42pm, fgk42 wrote:

“Ok let's assume that a shooter has a validated skill of SRR-7.5.

Which avenue would result in obtaining that "fast track" talked about at length in your "Can You Fool Your Bankroll into THINKING and ACTING Like it is Bigger?" series:

A. Passline with 5X odds and two $24 Place-bets on the 6 and 8

OR

B. Don't Pass with 6X lay odds and no Place-bets?”


If a shooter has a validated SRR-rate of 7.5 as a Rightsider; then his equivalent Darkshooting SRR-rate is around 4.8.

So, based on the above-noted scenario, the Darkshooting route will lead to much faster bankroll growth and re-doubling than Rightside-shooting will.

How can that be, and why is it so?

It's due to a little thing I first wrote about back in 1999. I coined it the "Darkside Paradox".

Simply put:

~When a Rightside-shooter's hand ends, all of his chips that were left exposed on the table are taken by the house.

However,

~When a Darkside-shooter's hand ends, all of his chips that were left exposed on the table are returned to the shooter along with his payout.

~When we calculate the Rightshooter's return-on-investment, we first have to subtract any wagers that remained on the table (and were taken by the house) when the hand ended; thereby reducing his overall net-profit.

~When we calculate the Darkshooter's return-on-investment, we first have to add in any wagers that remained on the table (and were returned by the house) when the hand ended; thereby undiminishing his overall net-profit.

That's the "Darkside Paradox".

How many times have we heard a Rightshooter lament, "Whew, that was a great hand, I musta rolled 20 or 30 times and I made some decent money, but WOW, look how much I left out on the table!"

You're never going to hear that from a Darkshooter because all of his D-side wagers are returned at the end of a hand, and so the most elemental part of any player's betting-regimen (whatever amount of 7-exposure money that is on the table when the hand ends)...is taken from the Rightsider...but returned to the Darksider.

That is what I call the Darkside Paradox, and that is why, given the choice of FGK's two above-noted betting-scenarios; the Darkshooter will double and then keep re-doubling his bankroll much faster than a similarly skilled and similar betting-level Rightsider.



Here's the follow-up article to that one:



Darkside Paradox...explained

I was surprised to receive a couple of IM's and e-mails asking to give a fuller explanation of the exponential bankroll-growing capabilities that often come from Darkside-shooting but DON'T come from equivalent-skill same-bet-value Rightside-shooting, which I call the Darkside Paradox.

Frankly, I honestly thought it was something everybody already knew.

When I first coined the phrase "Darkside Paradox" back in 1999, I thought I was just giving a name to something that is apparent the first time you see a Darksider getting paid. I just wanted to name it something so that it was more easily referred to in m-board discussions.

Okay so let's take the full Darkside Paradox explanation right from the top.

~Let's use the example of a Rightsider Place-betting the 6 and 8 for $18 each. He has a total of $36 in action.

~Let's also have our Darksider betting $5 on the Don't Pass and then backing it in a 3x/4x/5x-Odds casino with 6x-Odds (using 6x in D-side Odds is the direct and correct inverse amount of 3x/4x/5x R-side Odds); to give himself $30 in DP-Odds. He has a total of $35 in action.

~Let's say that our Rightsider manages to collect two winning-hits of $21 each on his 6 and 8 Place-bets (a random-roller is only expected to collect a neg-ex average of 1.67 of them per hand, while a SRR-7 shooter averages 1.94, and an SRR-8 shooter can reasonably expect about 2.22 of them per hand).

~So when the 7-Out comes; our Rightsider has collected gross-revenue of $42; however, to figure out his net-profit, we still have to SUBTRACT the $36 he had on the layout when the 7-Out appeared, and which got swept away on that loss.

~After replenishing the $36 that he originally invested in this wager, that leaves our Rightsider with a net-profit of $6.

Let's see what happens to our Darksider when the 7-out shows up.

~We know that the flat $5 portion of his Don't Pass wager is paid at 1:1 even-money, so he'll get $5 for that, and his DP-Odds will be paid an average of 2:3 or $20 (that's an average of what he gets from the 1:2, 2:3, and 5:6 payouts on his inversed DP-Odds).

~In that case, his gross-revenue from that DP w/Odds bet pays a total average of $25; but wait, they also RETURN his original $5 + $30 wager-investment in full.

That means that his entire bet-winning gross-revenue of $25 is NET-profit, and so that entire bet-revenue amount can be used to grow his bankroll. None of his D-side payout has to go to replenish his original investment because the casino RETURNS that entire investment to him, in full.

That doesn't happen with Rightside shooting.

Instead, a Rightsider has to use most of his payout to first REPLENISH his initial investment BEFORE he can start counting his net-profit.

So we have the Rightsider who invested $36 and is able to show a $6 profit that can go towards bankroll-growth, and we have a Darksider who invested $35 and is able to show a $25 profit that can go towards bankroll growth.

The point?

The net-profit that can come from Darkside-shooting versus the net-profit that can come from equivalent-skill Rightside-shooting (where the same approximate amount of 7-exposure money is used); will average out to be several times higher for the Dark-shooter than for the Right-shooter.

And that my friends, is what I call the Darkside Paradox.


As always,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor Copyright © 2008