Help on a little system please...
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dave716aceduece
- Posts: 21
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2014 7:47 pm
Help on a little system please...
I'm fairly new at craps and have been playing at my local casino for the past 6mos or so pretty regularly. I've been trying to tweak some things here and there jumping from the pass to the don't pass, playing a lot of the dark side... Lately I found I like placing the 6 and 8, but hate getting killed by that PSO/PSSO... I was thinking about a $25 DC and then placing the 6 and 8 for $12 hoping to hit and press once or twice before taking them down... Is this a bad idea because it could fuel hedging which I know isn't good, but a DC 4 then hit the 6 or 8 twice, take them down and wait for the 7 just sounds so good lol... Any advice would be greatly appreciated... I go to have fun (and hopefully break even and leave with a buzz lol) usually once a week with a small bankroll (100-150) since I go pretty frequently
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SHOOTITALL
- Posts: 1016
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:42 pm
Re: Help on a little system please...
First, welcome aboard a very good craps site. Now, as to you question. MP posted the answer on his site the other day so join his board also and also free. He did the math on parlaying a six.
http://diceinstitute.mxf.yuku.com/topic ... r?page=111
It's right after the picture of the motorcycle. You need to read and understand that most excellent article.
Next, you have basically stumbled onto the "one hit-can't miss" system. It is a time killer and you will not make much with it. Basically, place a DC bet of $5 then after the point is set, place the 6&8 even if one of them is the point.
Others will chime in here. Hopefully MP will not chide me too bad for putting up the link but when you are thinking of laying out $49 bucks on a $150 BR, you really need to rethink that - it is not a good idea and a parlay or press on a hit is not a good idea either.
http://diceinstitute.mxf.yuku.com/topic ... r?page=111
It's right after the picture of the motorcycle. You need to read and understand that most excellent article.
Next, you have basically stumbled onto the "one hit-can't miss" system. It is a time killer and you will not make much with it. Basically, place a DC bet of $5 then after the point is set, place the 6&8 even if one of them is the point.
Others will chime in here. Hopefully MP will not chide me too bad for putting up the link but when you are thinking of laying out $49 bucks on a $150 BR, you really need to rethink that - it is not a good idea and a parlay or press on a hit is not a good idea either.
Your craps plan? The dice gods laughed.
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Morgue
Re: Help on a little system please...
I agree, much too high of a lay out for a bankroll that small. Is the minimum bet to place a 6 or 8 $12? If not, consider scaling down.
Otherwise, consider scaling your bankroll up within your comfort level.
Otherwise, consider scaling your bankroll up within your comfort level.
Re: Help on a little system please...
I agree. With a $150 session stake you could play $12 on the DP then place the six and eight for $6 each. I'd take one hit on the six or eight then bring them down and wait for a decision on the DP. Others would play it differently and their play might even be stronger than mine. SIA's "one hit - can't miss" play, for example, is very strong. So is simply running a positive progression on the DP. Lots of ways to go. Dig in here on the site and you'll find even more.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: Help on a little system please...
We have used a similar play several times that is good for longevity. Skip the come out, get a $10 DC to travel and place the 6&8 for $12 each. If the DC travels to the 6 or 8 then surround the DC number. For example if the DC travels to six place the five and eight. This play gives you two chances to win and two ways to lose - the DC or a 7out. The max you can lose on one roll of the dice is $14. This is significant as good general practice is to never risk more than 10% of your session bankroll on a single roll of the dice. This play will give you 10 chances on a $140 buy in. The thing you have to be careful about is if you're DC gets picked off you should really take down the placed bets and try again on the next shooter. Otherwise sure as heck you'll get picked and then the next roll is 7out and in two rolls you lost $34. You have to be willing to "live to fight another day" and not get stubborn about making back that lost DC right away. Like a lot of betting patterns it works sometimes. If you like to maximize your play time it's a pretty good way to go. You won't get wiped out fast and if someone gets on a roll you will have a chance to be in on it from the start. Of course sometimes it will not work and you will die a slow death. But more often than not you can at least tread water. It's a pretty good way to start at a new table to get a feel for the table trend without putting too much at risk.
I wanna see the dust...
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Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: Help on a little system please...
How Effective is a Large-DP w/Half-Sized Place-bet 6 and 8 Strategy?
Our friend, Mr. Clean, asked a great question, which got me to thinking about all the hedge bets that many dice-influencers favor these days.
He asked:
"Let's say a D-I'er has an SRR of 8.
Assume he makes a large $100 Don't Pass bet and then goes up $48 each on the six and eight.
The small vig on the Don't Pass is based on a randomly-thrown Come-Out SRR of 6.
During his point cycle he is throwing to avoid the seven.
Would doing so make the large $100 Don't bet very negative, thereby wiping out any advantage that he might have with his SRR-8 on his Place-bets?"
As I told him when he first posed this to me on the DiceInstitute m-board; I am continually impressed with the quality of questions that you guys post.
To properly appraise a composite, multi-bet set of wagers; we first have to break it down into its components.
~Let's start with the $100 Don't Pass wager which, as Mr. Clean set out above, is being thrown randomly (SRR-6) on the Come-Out.
~In a random game, we know that the DP wager will provide an instant even-money C-O win on the 2 or 3 about once every 12 come-out tosses (8.33% of the time).
~We also know that in a random game, the DP wager will offer up an instant C-O loser to the 7 or 11 about once every 4.5 come-out tosses (22.22% of the time).
~So of all the come-out tosses, you'll run into a C-O 'decision' about once every 3.27 C-O tosses (30.55% of the time).
~Unfortunately for the DP bettor, those come-out decisions will go against him about 72.7% of the time; while they'll be decided in his favor about 27.3% of the time.
~When we get into dice-influenced play with an SRR-8 shooter Place-betting the 6 and 8 for $48 each during the point-cycle; the numbers tilt in the other direction.
~With all other things being equal, and the SRR-8 shooter producing an evenly-distributed number of proportionately-expected non-7 outcomes (as Mr. Clean outlined in a previous post that he made); then the player edge is heavily in his favor.
~In random expectancy, we’ll see five 6’s and five 8’s against six appearances of the 7. That ratio of 10:6 means a random-roller can expect a 6’s-and-8’s-to-7’s appearance-rate of 1.67:1, and those two bets constitute 27.78% of all possible outcomes.
~That means that with their 7:6 payout ratio, a combined Place-bet of $48 each on the 6 and 8 will produce an overall expected loss of -$2.48 per hand.
~For an SRR-8 shooter (who produces proportionately-distributed non-7 outcomes); he'll see that 6’s and 8’s ratio against the 7 change to 10.5:4.5, meaning that we can expect a 6’s-and-8’s-to-7’s appearance-rate of 2.33:1, so those two bets will now constitute 29.16% of all possible outcomes.
~That means that with their 7:6 payout ratio, a combined Place-bet of $48 each on the 6 and 8 for this SRR-8 shooter will produce an overall expected win of +$34.48 per hand.
But are most skilled-shooter's distribution of non-7's always as equally distributed like Mr. Clean's example?
Of course not, and as always, you should thoroughly check your own actual roll-outcomes against any betting-method you are interested in exploring before you venture dollar-one.
Now we get to the real question of whether that large $100 DP wager acts like a brilliant insurance hedge...or whether it is a waste of money and a squanderer of pos-ex edge.
Unfortunately it is the latter. Here's why:
~With this shooter's SRR-8, he'll only be producing about 4.5 unintentional 7-Outs per 36 tosses during the point-cycle instead of the usual 6-out-of-36 for a random-roller.
~That means his per-toss likelihood of throwing an errant 7 is 12.5% instead of the randomly-expected 16.67% per toss probability.
~Since his other non-7 outcomes are also evenly distributed, we can expect that he'll be producing a higher-than-expected number of PL-Point repeaters...and an equally-reflective number of DP losers.
~In this case, the usual PL/DP win:loss ratio for Point-winners-versus-Point-losers changes from 40%/60% in the DP bettors favor when a random-roller is throwing the dice; to a PL-winner-vs.-DP-loser ratio closer to 50%/50% when the SRR-8 shooter has the dice.
~When you net things out, especially after taking out the big bite this wager suffers during the C-O cycle, your DP wager acts to dilute and erode your overall win by a fairly big margin.
How much of a negative margin?
~Well, with the point-cycle itself breaking even (by this SRR-8 shooter producing an equal number of PL-winners vs. PL-losers), we have to go back and look at the losses he incurs during the Come-Out cycle.
~He'd be winning his even-money $100 DP wager about 8.33% of the time...and losing it about 22.22% of the time. Over 36 C-O throws he'd produce a net-loss of around -$500...and all of his Place-bet profit on the 6 and 8 would be wiped out.
~If on the other hand you took that same $100 and added it to his point-cycle $48 Place-bets on the 6 and 8 for a now-resized wager of $96 each; he'd be producing an average net-profit of +$68.96 per hand...and a return-on-investment around +18%.
When we take a close and careful look at what at first glance appears to be a brilliant and cost-effective insurance hedge, it generally turns out to be nothing more an erosive and very costly squanderer of pos-ex edge.
As always,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Our friend, Mr. Clean, asked a great question, which got me to thinking about all the hedge bets that many dice-influencers favor these days.
He asked:
"Let's say a D-I'er has an SRR of 8.
Assume he makes a large $100 Don't Pass bet and then goes up $48 each on the six and eight.
The small vig on the Don't Pass is based on a randomly-thrown Come-Out SRR of 6.
During his point cycle he is throwing to avoid the seven.
Would doing so make the large $100 Don't bet very negative, thereby wiping out any advantage that he might have with his SRR-8 on his Place-bets?"
As I told him when he first posed this to me on the DiceInstitute m-board; I am continually impressed with the quality of questions that you guys post.
To properly appraise a composite, multi-bet set of wagers; we first have to break it down into its components.
~Let's start with the $100 Don't Pass wager which, as Mr. Clean set out above, is being thrown randomly (SRR-6) on the Come-Out.
~In a random game, we know that the DP wager will provide an instant even-money C-O win on the 2 or 3 about once every 12 come-out tosses (8.33% of the time).
~We also know that in a random game, the DP wager will offer up an instant C-O loser to the 7 or 11 about once every 4.5 come-out tosses (22.22% of the time).
~So of all the come-out tosses, you'll run into a C-O 'decision' about once every 3.27 C-O tosses (30.55% of the time).
~Unfortunately for the DP bettor, those come-out decisions will go against him about 72.7% of the time; while they'll be decided in his favor about 27.3% of the time.
~When we get into dice-influenced play with an SRR-8 shooter Place-betting the 6 and 8 for $48 each during the point-cycle; the numbers tilt in the other direction.
~With all other things being equal, and the SRR-8 shooter producing an evenly-distributed number of proportionately-expected non-7 outcomes (as Mr. Clean outlined in a previous post that he made); then the player edge is heavily in his favor.
~In random expectancy, we’ll see five 6’s and five 8’s against six appearances of the 7. That ratio of 10:6 means a random-roller can expect a 6’s-and-8’s-to-7’s appearance-rate of 1.67:1, and those two bets constitute 27.78% of all possible outcomes.
~That means that with their 7:6 payout ratio, a combined Place-bet of $48 each on the 6 and 8 will produce an overall expected loss of -$2.48 per hand.
~For an SRR-8 shooter (who produces proportionately-distributed non-7 outcomes); he'll see that 6’s and 8’s ratio against the 7 change to 10.5:4.5, meaning that we can expect a 6’s-and-8’s-to-7’s appearance-rate of 2.33:1, so those two bets will now constitute 29.16% of all possible outcomes.
~That means that with their 7:6 payout ratio, a combined Place-bet of $48 each on the 6 and 8 for this SRR-8 shooter will produce an overall expected win of +$34.48 per hand.
But are most skilled-shooter's distribution of non-7's always as equally distributed like Mr. Clean's example?
Of course not, and as always, you should thoroughly check your own actual roll-outcomes against any betting-method you are interested in exploring before you venture dollar-one.
Now we get to the real question of whether that large $100 DP wager acts like a brilliant insurance hedge...or whether it is a waste of money and a squanderer of pos-ex edge.
Unfortunately it is the latter. Here's why:
~With this shooter's SRR-8, he'll only be producing about 4.5 unintentional 7-Outs per 36 tosses during the point-cycle instead of the usual 6-out-of-36 for a random-roller.
~That means his per-toss likelihood of throwing an errant 7 is 12.5% instead of the randomly-expected 16.67% per toss probability.
~Since his other non-7 outcomes are also evenly distributed, we can expect that he'll be producing a higher-than-expected number of PL-Point repeaters...and an equally-reflective number of DP losers.
~In this case, the usual PL/DP win:loss ratio for Point-winners-versus-Point-losers changes from 40%/60% in the DP bettors favor when a random-roller is throwing the dice; to a PL-winner-vs.-DP-loser ratio closer to 50%/50% when the SRR-8 shooter has the dice.
~When you net things out, especially after taking out the big bite this wager suffers during the C-O cycle, your DP wager acts to dilute and erode your overall win by a fairly big margin.
How much of a negative margin?
~Well, with the point-cycle itself breaking even (by this SRR-8 shooter producing an equal number of PL-winners vs. PL-losers), we have to go back and look at the losses he incurs during the Come-Out cycle.
~He'd be winning his even-money $100 DP wager about 8.33% of the time...and losing it about 22.22% of the time. Over 36 C-O throws he'd produce a net-loss of around -$500...and all of his Place-bet profit on the 6 and 8 would be wiped out.
~If on the other hand you took that same $100 and added it to his point-cycle $48 Place-bets on the 6 and 8 for a now-resized wager of $96 each; he'd be producing an average net-profit of +$68.96 per hand...and a return-on-investment around +18%.
When we take a close and careful look at what at first glance appears to be a brilliant and cost-effective insurance hedge, it generally turns out to be nothing more an erosive and very costly squanderer of pos-ex edge.
As always,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
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dave716aceduece
- Posts: 21
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2014 7:47 pm
Re: Help on a little system please...
You guys are awesome and really took time to answer thoroughly, thanks a lot. And yes the reason I was placing for 12 each was because the min was 10... On Fridays and thru the weekend it's 15! So I play weeknights Lol. I usually play at Seneca Buffalo Creek since im here in buffalo
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Morgue
Re: Help on a little system please...
MP: Isn't it 7 or 11 on the come out 1 in 4, not 1 in 4.5?
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Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: Help on a little system please...
Morgue wrote:MP: Isn't it 7 or 11 on the come out 1 in 4, not 1 in 4.5?
Hi Morgue,
In a random-outcome game, there are six possible 7's and two possible 11's out of the thirty-six possible dice-combinations.
36/8 = 4.5
MP
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Morgue
Re: Help on a little system please...
Of course! i had 32 stuck in my head because its a number i use A LOT at work.
My mistake
My mistake
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Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: Help on a little system please...
Hi Morgue,
Since you are from the Land of Oz, could you give us any insight into whether or not you think the Australian casino game of "Two Up" is beatable or 'influenceable'.
Thanks,
MP
Since you are from the Land of Oz, could you give us any insight into whether or not you think the Australian casino game of "Two Up" is beatable or 'influenceable'.
Thanks,
MP
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Morgue
Re: Help on a little system please...
Two up is not really a casino game. Infact, it's illegal 364/365 days of the year (365/366 on leap years). So if you're planning on a trip down under to flip some coins into the air, make sure you're here on the 25th of April. It can be played in casinos but is usually found at an RSL.
I've actually never played, nor seen it played LIVE, so you and I are on equal terms with the game. I do know the basics of it though and will offer you my opinion. Thanks for asking.
Beatable?
Definitely not. When played socially true odds are paid, it's a zero sum game. So you have to have someone on both sides of the bet. When there is a "house" there obviously comes a "house edge" which is about 3% at the lowest.
"Influenceable?"
I'm extremely skeptical that dice are able to be influenced and have the same opinion when it comes to flipping coins. I'm sure there are many that believe they can influence flips of a coin just like those that believe they can influence outcomes of the dice.
I've actually never played, nor seen it played LIVE, so you and I are on equal terms with the game. I do know the basics of it though and will offer you my opinion. Thanks for asking.
Beatable?
Definitely not. When played socially true odds are paid, it's a zero sum game. So you have to have someone on both sides of the bet. When there is a "house" there obviously comes a "house edge" which is about 3% at the lowest.
"Influenceable?"
I'm extremely skeptical that dice are able to be influenced and have the same opinion when it comes to flipping coins. I'm sure there are many that believe they can influence flips of a coin just like those that believe they can influence outcomes of the dice.