$540 across, 2 hits and down... does my math make sense?

[dork]

I saw someone hunch, and place bet a couple box numbers for $100 each and get lucky--both numbers (the only two box numbers placed) hit immediately after the bet was wagered, in succession. The bettor took the place bets down as they were hit, and had nothing on the table when the seven came... it spawned an idea... and I need help to figure out if my math is a close approximation enough to consider this a valid 'system':

In my last complete 720 rolls, I rolled PSO eleven times, PPSO nine times, and 71 times, I hit at least 2 points before going out. My box numbers-to-sevens ratio hovers at 5.7-5.9.

I'm thinking' to bet $520/540 across with $10 Pass and $100 odds after I set a point. Total at stake is $650. On the first hit, I take the place bet down for the point that hit, and keep the winnings. If I hit a second time, I reduce the place bets to $26/27 across, keeping a $10 Pass Line and reducing to $10 odds.

I think the results look like this, roughly:

PSO 11x means a loss of 11x $650, or $7150.
PPSO means I hit one number--if it was a box number, I'd take down the $100 place bet, leaving ~ $440 left placed, and $110 on the line--totaling $550 at stake when I seven'd on my third roll. I would have collected $140 for the lone box number that I hit, so the loss is really $550-140 = $410. That means a PPSO generate a loss of 9x $410, or $3690. So my losses for the total of 11 PSO's and 9 PPSO's would be $7150+$3690, which is $10,840.

However , for the rest of the book of 720 rolls, I rolled better than 2 points 71 times. To simplify this, let's postulate that the 2 points are inside numbers only. If that's the case, collecting on two box-number payoffs nets $280 (2 x $140). After the second box number is hit, I'd reduce to $26/27 across, with a total of $20 at risk on the PASS line ($10 and $10 odds). That's a possible loss of an additional $47 if I never hit a third number. $280 in winnings times 71 hands = $19,880. 71 x $47 in additional losses = $3337.

Not including trash numbers, my losses look to be:

$10,840 + $3,337, a loss total of $14,177 if I never roll better than 2 box numbers, including the point.

Theoretically, a rough profit should tally this way:

$19,980 - $14,177 = $5,803

$5800 divided by 90 hands (71 + 20) = $64 per hand if the hands only last 3 total rolls.

I need a mathematician or someone with more common sense to tweak it further--I know the horn numbers aren't considered in my projections and they strongly influence the statistics on the crap table. But at the same time, wouldn't the omission of any 4/10 payoffs and 3+ roll hands roughly compensate against the crap numbers for this idea to make some possible sense? What's different in this system (to me) is the idea of taking down the place bets on the first and second hits. I'm wondering if it has enough influence against the losses.
Is this worth pursuing?

Thanks!

[freak]

The math makes sense to me. Another way to look at it is you are willing to risk $15,000 to get a return of 33%. You might want to try it with $1500 the first time just in case those 11 PSOs all come at the beginning. Buy in for $1500 and when you reach $2000 walk away.

[Knick111]

Good Morning dork,

Give your $540 ACROSS, 2hits and down a shot. but my friend- do not forget that your buy in must be $13 Thousand dollars. and you should have a bank roll of at lease $260,000 Thousand dollars.

These numbers are with your other bets that you intend to make with your $540 across.

JAIME.

[tonybugs]

Here's the 1 problem I see with it. Your doing a massive regression from $100 a box down to $5 a box. the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th hit aint going to make up for a bad run of PSO's early in the night. And what do you do when you hit 3rd box number? Full press I guess, because i can't see collecting $5-9 on a hit. Thats a lot a hits to make up for PSO. I'd rather go $204 across, get 1 hit, down to $54 across and now you only have $5 exposure. 2nd hit and your up. Also with your play theres gonna be big bankroll swings that might get discouraged very quickly

[tonybugs]

I've also been trying this: $20 dont pass. come out roll is 8. now is go $25 4 and 10, $35 5 and 9 , $42 6, lay max odd of $140 on dont pass, and a $20 hard 8. next roll-9. Collect $49. down to $10/12 on all number, bring odds down $49 and hard 8 down to $5. as numbers get hit take them down. after 3 numbers hit, take down odds and hard way, and either press or collect depending on table conditions. You get alot of action with not much at risk if you survive 2nd roll

[dork]

Here's the 1 problem I see with it. Your doing a massive regression from $100 a box down to $5 a box. the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th hit aint going to make up for a bad run of PSO's early in the night. And what do you do when you hit 3rd box number? Full press I guess, because i can't see collecting $5-9 on a hit. Thats a lot a hits to make up for PSO. I'd rather go $204 across, get 1 hit, down to $54 across and now you only have $5 exposure. 2nd hit and your up. Also with your play theres gonna be big bankroll swings that might get discouraged very quickly

I was thinkin' (maybe hopin') that I could recoup the PSO's with 2-3 PPPSO's. I picked 540 out the air, mostly a number inspired by the hunch bettor I saw. (I ain't got the funding nor the stones to plunk $540 across as a standard bet. I was more spitballing for methodology.) You've got me thinking now though, about a one-hit regression--but I can't figure out how your bets are spread with a "$204 across"? How did you mean to bet that?

On my $26/27 across, I'd choose a single place bet (signature number) and parlay that number 4-5 times before taking any winnings on that number (most likely reducing to $10 again); for the rest I'd play a single unit press each time they hit.

$1500 for a buy-in with a 2 PSO "consecutive" tolerance is as much as I'd ever consider. One session of two PSO's at 540 would prolly cure me of craps forever. I was considering at most $270 across with that buy-in is as much as I think I could stomach.

Thanks, Guys!

[dork]

For anything above $27 across, I'd bet only on me. I never take RR's seriously; recreation-ally, I might see what they can do for $27, but usually, even at that "stake", I have to know them pretty well and ifn they don't cut it, I don't repeat. Mostly with RR's and unknown "DI's", I use the Heat Seeker system if I bet'm at all.

[heavy]

Okay, for what it's worth - if I were going to take this regression shot I'd look at $640 across - two hits - then regress to $204 across and collect green chips until the cows come home. Want to be more aggressive? Post regression full press on each number one time.

[Knick111]

HI HEAVY,

I see you like polk salad. So here is some polk salad for you.

http://youtu.be/5WJyhHQUHtY

[Knick111]

Hi heavy,

You tube did not want to deliver some polk salad to you.
so I put a new order of polk salad for you.

Hope this one will be deliver to you.http://youtu.be/FOzaVpgeHJg

[dork]

Don'tchu hijack my thread with that shiiit!!! Daaayum, boy, what a sanitized version of a great song... Lemme clean out my ears



"a rigid, spiiiteful, straight-razor-totin' woman..." Jeez, get it right.
"LOUweezyAnna"... Elvis, is that 'Louzanna' to us'all? Wudda way to butcher a song.

To bidness: How t'hell are y'all gettin' to 204 across? what're the place bets? I get 216/224, or for 6 numbers, 192. This's drivin' me nuts...

[Mad Professor]

Hi Dork,

To get $204-Across, you would bet $25 each on the Buy-4 and Buy-10...Place-bet $35 each on the 5 and 9...and $42 each on the Place-6 and Place-8. Each paying-hit delivers $49.

MP

[Knick111]

GOOD MORNING DORK.

Sorry about that. heavy's delivery system send my order for polk salad to your $540 across, 2hits and down thread. I was posting to another thread, were Heavy posted about polk salad.

JAIME.

[dork]

Hi Jaime,

No worries! I wasn't in the least upset that it crossed over... it's the "content" I din't like... Elvis doin' Poke Salad Annie is like listenin' to the dentist version of AC/DC's TNT. I didn't take nuthin' bad from your post. It kinda tickled me; I didn't know there was another version (done so badly ).

Thanks, Heavy. I was goin' round and round...

[gargoil]

Yea I just can't see risking so much for so little. (I think you mentioned 33%). If you are okay with risking a bankroll then I would make the bets that are more profitable depending on the scenario ( who is shooting, cold / hot table, etc).

I strongly believe that a good trait of a DI is not just about rolling the dice but also about adapting to the environment around him / her and being able to use his / her DI experience to maximize on that.

[heavy]

One of our old regulars who has dropped out of the gaming scene used to walk up to the table, observe the game for awhile, and when he felt the time was right - toss in either $11,000 inside or $22,000 inside - depending on how well he'd done at poker the night before. One hit and down.

[Knick111]

HI Heavy,

That's nice and dandy. But tell us what happened when the 7 took his $11,000 or $22,000 inside.

Did he keep on playing that same night, after that $11,000 or $22,000 dollar lost-- OR did he come back the next day and make the same bets.

As w/w used to say-- how about the rest of the story. JAIME.

[tonybugs]

He was probably watching for a few PSO in a row, then jumped in thinking the %'s were on his side. One hit and down is a nice day. Works nice if you get a couple of hits in a row, like 10 hits!

[wild child]

By $540 Across you are chancing not covering leaving the Pass Line BOX NUMBER uncovered ,
KNOW

A percentage of craps players prefer to not cover the P L with the feeling it may not return.....

The jury is out concerning the topic specific to whom you ask for an opinion......

As with The M P $204 Across , the strength is the perhaps one/or two rolls AND DOWN.....
If concerned over THE SEVEN and still want to place the action ,there may be moves to mitigate
a loss though not remove the RISK entirely........Also as with seemingly complicated to the dealers
you may need to smile lots while ever so gently explaining it to them as the $25,$35,$42 on the down town and up town sides of THE SEVEN may be a concept neither they or their BOX PERSON
have witnessed until you have the opportunity to bring them up to speed.......Stay calm & carry on
with occasional tokes and all will go well......

With that much action :

You could just gut it out because your BANK ROLL can tolerate the draw down..
So it is relative to your personal COMFORT LEVEL........
The M P just gutted up $40 K with a run - up to $1,000,000 +

He hung out in about 70 teeth grinding redouble moves.
The M P crossed that Finish line a big winner

Risk Vs Reward it is relative....to one's tolerance level and comfort zone

You could make a ( much mocked COME BET for say $90 with a $10 ANY CRAPS

On a SEVEN or ELEVEN the COME BET would instantly return a plus $80
and the $540 plus the $10 ANY CRAP would be a DUMP on the 7 showing
On a 2 ,3,or 12 showing the return would be $70 and you get to do whatever with the $10 ANY

Should the roll go to a COVERED BOX NUMBER the wager would return $140 minus your $10 ANY
You could just say "Down with no ODDS " and you would at that juncture have $90 sitting on a BOX NUMBER

Wash rinse dry and repeat the first cycle and take down your other three (3) BOX NUMBER WAGERS
.
Then you just gut it out ,counting YOUR CHIPS in THE RACK and wait each NEXT ROLL with your
$180 at risk for RUIN or REWARD...........

If it works to completion with zero loss to the SEVEN ,you just made some" EASY MONEY"

Should it go some other way.....Just deal with it

You may wish to practice this at home....

Then take THE RISK with a $ AMOUNT less than $540 or $640

The above from the W C School of Finagle Finance and Marching Band

[amish dude]

sounds like a version of sharpshooters $44 across and Mad Professors $204 across
what the standard saying for that bet give every thing across