I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

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AtGame7

I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by AtGame7 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 8:28 am

I know this is silly, but I am certainly well known at my local casino. I'm no high roller, but I am there enough that the staff and most of the regular players know me so I really get uncomfortable betting the Dont's when I'm there. Again, I know that is silly, but it's how I am.

We are heading to Atlantic City for the week and I won't care what folks there think so I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's. I'm not looking for that super secret strategy that all the grinders have figured out to put the edge in their favor (I know that doesn't exist), I just want to play smart.

For example, when I have played the Dark Side I always put the minimum on the line for fear or the 7/11 on the come out roll and then put the remainder of what I was willing to risk on the odds. Is that right or should I be putting more on the line (as it pays even money) and "any 7" on the come out to protect it? I think, THINK I am slightly worse off by putting more on the line and "any 7". Example is 5/9 I put $16 on the line and $4 "any 7". If a 7 rolls it's a push but if a 7 doesn't roll I end up with a profit of $12 where $5 on the line and $15 odds is a profit of $12. What I can't figure in is all the $5 front line losers that the 7 brings along the way (I'm not ignoring the "YO" factor, I just think it's offset by the Aces and Ace/Deuce).

It's the little things like that that I don't know about Don't betting and I am a firm believer in every dollar counts. I plan to put in over 40 hours this coming week so I will see a lot of hands and those dollars will add up.

Who has a good strategy for me? I apologize I am not good at the internet and as such realize the search function Nazi's aren't going to like this thread. Sorry.

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Re: I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by Dylanfreake » Sun Aug 11, 2013 9:43 am

Your thoughts about the Darkside are correct.

A table minimum DP with the laying of however much in odds you are comfortable with is the way to go.

Just a table minimum DP wager is not a bad way to play the Donts.

I play the Darkside 100% of the time and I don`t care what others think. Now if they would give me a few hundred dollars to keep as my own , I would play whatever way they wanted me to play and maybe even divide the profits with Golfer. (Golfer would have to line up the women , though).

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Re: I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by heavy » Sun Aug 11, 2013 9:59 am

This is a great question and one I am glad to see. There are many ways to approach the Don'ts, with dozens of different hedge strategies for those who want to go that route. I'll suggest a couple, but let me give you the one I like the most first.

Many players don't want to be viewed by the rest of the folks at the table as a "curse" or some sort of pariah betting the Don'ts. This feeling arises mostly from you playing the Don't Pass. So instead of playing the DP, by pass the Come Out, then play (on a $10 game) a $15 Don't Come. Once that travels to a number, follow it with a $10 Don't Come bet. By betting a smaller amount on your second bet you guarantee yourself a small win should the seven show on that roll. Once you have $25 in action up you wait for a decision on those bets. An option off this - if one of your bets gets knocked off you can lay $30 odds on the remaining DC bet. But that is all you will risk on any one shooter.

I do recommend some personal rules. The main one - if the shooter knocks you off your first DC bet with an eleven - you are through on that shooter. Do not bet on his toss again this trip around the table.

Of the hedge moves you can make when playing the Don't Pass or Don't Come . . .

Lay $41 no four or no ten. Stays up for one roll - until a point is established - then take it down.
Lay $31 no five or no nine. Same rules as the four and ten.
Lay $25 no six or no eight. Ditto on the rules.
Bet $3 sevens hop. If I run the sevens hop play and it hits I parlay it one time.

If you don't mind risking $100 - $150 per shooter here's a little "chase it" strategy.

Make a $10 Don't Pass and two $20 Don't Come bets. No odds at this point. Wait for a decision. If you get knocked off one of the three bets, lay single odds on the two remaining bets. If you get knocked off a second bet, lay $60 odds on the last bet. If it gets knocked off you are through for the shooter.

John Patrick's ricochet play isn't a bad way to go. Wait until a shooter establishes a point. Whatever that point is - lay against it for one roll and play a $10 - $25 Don't Come. Then take down the lay bet and just wait for a decision on the DC. Again, limit yourself to one bet per shooter.

I'll also offer up Shootitall's One Hit - Can't Miss Play. In a $10 game you make a $12 Don't Pass bet (you could go Don't Come if you wanted). Once that point is established you place the six and eight for $12 each. If you get one hit on the six and eight, then you cannot lose on that hand. You're guaranteed a minimum $2 shooter. Just let it ride from there.

Last of all, I'll toss out Dave's System. I've modified it slightly for my comfort level and don't use exactly the same rules as Dave, so you might want to search for it on the forum. It's here in several different threads. But essentially it's continuous Don't Pass/Don't Come bets with odds. Dave's rules state that you never lay odds on the four and ten. I, on the other hand, always lay odds on the four and ten. There are some queues that tell you to stop betting. As I recall, if you get knocked off of one bet you stop betting for that shooter. If you get knocked off of two bets you take down your odds on the remaining bets and wait for a decision on them before betting again. I use $30 odds on every number. I believe Dave's strategy called for double that at $60. Some of you Chicago boys who know Dave might chime in here, because I've probably screwed this up.

That's a cooks assortment of Don't plays. I kind of like all of them. If you don't have a copy of John Patrick's Advanced Craps you should get it. Visit John's website and get his e-mail address or phone number and order it direct from him and you'll get the "good" copy - the one he self published. When it was published by one of the houses in New York they edited out a bunch of info you need.

Most of all - have fun with it. Remember, you are not betting against the other players. You are all betting against the house.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy

wild child
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Re: I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by wild child » Sun Aug 11, 2013 10:09 am

.I wrote this post off line and decided to post it anyhow..

Home base or playing away.....seems like the rules of engagement be the same...
It is YOUR $ and YOU may RISK it how you choose.........

Typically my game is to transition from DO to DON'T in any casino market....

You will need size up the specific table as you not want to lose to a string of consistent repeated #'s.

In theory every toss has a 17% chance of showing THE SEVEN..

In practice fewer shooters repeat Pass Line number second and less so Pass Line # third
and the fall of is more so for subsequent PASS LINE numbers....

With some GOOD FOR YOU FORTUNE you will win a percentage of first PASS LINE WAGERS.
The expediency is to win a greater PERCENTAGE ( % ) of the shooter's P/L # second and on so.

My thoughts are should you place a D/P and lay odds against then start making serial D/C wagers
( WITH NO BOX NUMBERS REPEATING)it may be wisest to limit the total DARK SIDE wagers to no more than six including the DON'T PASS & those five D/C wagers.......You could hit a GRAND SLAM HOME RUN or THE SHOOTER could pluck off your numbers like the feathers on a sitting goose

D F says to not give ONE SHOOTER the opportunity to pick off more than ONE of your DON'T WAGERS

Most time when I have a DO NOT $50 or larger against the 4 or 10 I'll BUY that number
leaving a spread to guarantee a 4 profit , though small, against the larger loss

You pays your money and you takes your choice....

W C

AtGame7

Re: I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by AtGame7 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 12:47 pm

Thank you all! I appreciate the replies. For those of you who say I shouldn't care what others think at my local casino, you are absolutely correct. The thing is I have got to know many of the regulars, most of them have played craps far longer than I have, and I have become friends with a few of them and even one of the dealers. It's not uncommon for us to meet up outside the casino for a few beers from time to time and I enjoy their company. I enjoy their company much more than I enjoy playing craps, so as not to ruffle any feathers I just go with the flow. Craps will never be the most important thing to me and I'll never be a "professional", I just like to enjoy myself playing (though admittedly, winning is more fun than losing).

I'm sure sooner or later my game with transfer to the dark side full time, especially if I have a decent AC trip this week. I'll let you all know how it goes.

Dave73

Re: I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by Dave73 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 1:32 pm

There are some good methods posted here. Personally I like the 3 point $10,$5,$10 DC. As Heavy mentioned after your first number is established this allows for a win on the second DC if the seven shows, but does nothing to help if the first point is hit.

I dont lay odds all the time even though the math says its the right thing to do. It is hard to recover from a couple losses on the 4 or 10 when you have layed max odds. For me, the dont is a little more psychological in that regard as you will have to have two wins just to get back to where you were. Bankroll management and discipline is important for the same reasons.

Another approach I have used a few times on a table which has turned cold is to make three fairly aggressive DC bets, using a similar pattern as before or a descending pattern ( $50, $30, $20 or whatever numbers work with your budget), on ONE shooter. I can't provide any math or logical reason to do so, but it has worked as " one last play" a few times. I would only do this toward the end of a session when I wasnt behind or if these losses wouldnt put me deep in the red.

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Re: I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by Pacecar » Sun Aug 11, 2013 2:24 pm

My favorite hybrid Don't strategy, never betting on the DP.
Normally won't bet on the come out roll, unless the previous come out was a 7, 11, or craps. In that case, on the next come out, I lay $21 against the 9, and put $10 on the field.
If the point established is a 6 or 8, then I place either $6 or $12 on the point, and remove any lay bet that might be up.
If the point established is a 4, 5, or 10, then my 3 choices are:
a) Lay $21 against the 9, and bet $15 DC. When DC travels (with no odds added), remove lay bet, and let the hand play out. If the DC travels to a 6 or 8, put $2 on the hard 6 or 8 as a hedge.
b) Lay $30 against the 9, and bet $30 DC and $2 yo. When DC travels (with no odds added), remove lay bet, and let the hand play out. If the $30 DC travels to 6 or 8, I also place the 6 or 8 for $18 (conservative play).
c) Just bet $5 on the DC (no lay bet against the 9), and when it travels, lay odds on it.
If the point established is a 9, then I lay $21 against the 5, and bet $15 DC.
There's some variations and additional betting that you can play on the above strategy, depending how you like to play. For example, when the DC moves to a number, you can bet another $5 DC and lay odds on that, etc.
Some experts may not like the vig % that is charged to a winning $21 lay 5 or 9 bet, but I don't consider that to be a big enough short-term obstacle to this strategy.
Last edited by Pacecar on Sat Aug 17, 2013 3:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by Inspector » Sun Aug 11, 2013 10:58 pm

I came across a situation on a previous trip that I was unaware of. You can make a PL or DP bet at anytime ( I assume because it is an even money bet) so I wonder if this infor can be used to protect you against the 7/11.

Why not make a minimum DP bet and when the point is made you could increase the DP bet allowing you to take larger odds that the minimum bet would allow.

Just a thought.

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Re: I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by acpa » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:32 pm

You are allowed to make a PL bet at any time. it is called apu t bet, but unless you are going to add at least 10x odds, a put bet is not a good bet. You give up the 8-4 advantage you have before a point is established.

You are not allowed to make a DP bet after a point is established so you can not increase your minimumn DP bet. You can always Lay the point, hovever.

Noah
Last edited by acpa on Mon Aug 12, 2013 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

Dylanfreake
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Re: I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by Dylanfreake » Mon Aug 12, 2013 4:52 am

If you could make a DP wager after a point is established , you would have an advantage over the casino.

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Re: I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by freak » Mon Aug 12, 2013 10:56 am

I haven't used the don't much lately but it's a tool I enjoy when the table calls for it. Biggest thing about playing don't for me is just keeping a low profile. Don't celebrate wins. (L and I high five and chest bump PL wins, but do secret low fives on DP wins). Often I only don't the other end of the table if I've "befriended" my end. It's a social game and I try to stay in touch with the potential vibe I'm sending if I don't bet. If it's cold table and darkside is really the way to go chances are the vibe won't matter. But if it's just a quick trip to the dark side until the dice come back around I'm mindful of the vibe. When I go dark I usually do this: On the CO I usually lay the 5 or 9 for $30 with a $10 DP bet. I net $10 on every 7 but of course lose if my lay number hits. After the point is established remove the lay. If the point is 6 or 8 add $12 odds and place a $10 - DP with $1 yo. Once the DC travels to a 4, 5, 9 or 10 remove the odds on the DP. Repeat. If I get three numbers wait for a decision. If I have good bankroll I'll take single odds on the 4, 5, 9 or 10 but not 6 & 8. Unlike Heavy, If one gets picked off I take my other odds off. It hurts to see one after the other get picked off so for me, the first pic is my sign that things are swinging positive and I don't want even more losses in odds. If the DP gets picked but the other DC bets remain I'll often place the PL and wish for a seven that will pay all bets. That's a nice rush when the negative side and positive side all pay at once. ;)
I wanna see the dust...

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Re: I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by heavy » Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:04 pm

Here's an interesting old thread from a member who was looking for a good strategy for playing the Don'ts. Give it a read and let us know what you think. See a strategy you like? Tell us which one and why. Have one of your own you'd like to tell us about? Let's hear about the strategy and why you like it. War stories welcome.
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Re: I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by brickpaul65 » Mon Sep 04, 2023 7:28 pm

Is there a way to order the self published version John Patrick's Advanced Craps (or an edition that has what was left out of the initial publishing)? Does anyone know how to determine which version has the most information?

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Re: I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by Wisco330inside » Tue Sep 05, 2023 8:52 pm

I got mine from specialty bookstore after googling it online. They came up as a seller of it. I paid like $40 which was much better than others I had found.

I think heavy knows which was the version that had some of the left out material in the later.

https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/Search ... ults&ds=20

brickpaul65
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Re: I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by brickpaul65 » Fri Sep 15, 2023 9:49 pm

https://www.ebay.com/p/54244957?iid=195853380393

I bought that version (not at that price though). I hope it is the write one. Looks different but might just be a reprint. It was 20 pages longer than a version with The author on the cover and blue background.

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Re: I need a good strategy for betting the Dont's

Post by DarthNater » Tue Oct 31, 2023 9:33 pm

brickpaul65 wrote: Fri Sep 15, 2023 9:49 pm https://www.ebay.com/p/54244957?iid=195853380393

I bought that version (not at that price though). I hope it is the write one. Looks different but might just be a reprint. It was 20 pages longer than a version with The author on the cover and blue background.
The Advanced Craps by JP that I have has a green cover, it's my go to. They are on ebay.....

DN8R
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