What's a good "can't lose" strategy seeking a "big" payoff with a Don't 4/10?

[dork]

I'm trying to come up with a decent play for the Don't 4 and 10. Here's my scheme--but it's not well polished yet:

I'll usually wait for 6-7 rolls and then I'll bet $100 DC and hedge that bet some with a $15 HOP-7s, $5-Yo, $1-Twelve. It won't recover everything, but at least $59 if the Yo comes and $80 on any Red. (I'm not concerned about "full" coverage--for instance, $59 on the Yo is enough for me because I feel that statistically, the Aces and 1-2 will help offset the Yo $41 shortcoming.)

My goal is to win $100 (for my net "$59") and then bet the next time with $200 DC and the same $21 Action to cover most of my original bet ($100) and let the house money ride alone (the other $100 stand naked for one roll).

Depending on the point that is assigned to my DC bet, I will usually play some kind of OHCM against a $200 DC 5,6,8, or 9 -- most commonly, I'll bet $90 each on the two adjacent numbers for a hit or two and then take them down and ride the single $200 DC bet to a decision. If the $200 DC is a 6 or 8, I'll have a $15 HW 6 (or HW8) whichever is "needed" for a slight hedge against that point.

However, I'd like to play against the $200 DC 4 or 10 differently-- (I actually ran up against this today when I had a $400 DC on the 10--but I didn't have a plan because I haven't ever played at this amount before. Usually when I'd run a $200 DC 4/10, I'd Place $50 (or $60) each on the 5,6,8, and 9 for two or three hits with a $25 HW10 and then take the Place bets down when I got scared, and either Placed something against the 4 as a hedge, but almost always just let the $200 DC-10 run to a decision and hope to "double" my money.)

But a $400 DC 4/10 is a different animal; there's so much more "room" to play... I actually thought of running $200 on the H10, and settle for "break-evens" with a $200 Place-10, but it seemed such a tepid and almost "wasteful" play, because most of the time a soft 10 or the 7 will occur before the H10. My thinking is the same for the $360 Inside scheme vs. $400 DC 10--especially when I'm contending with a random roller--in this specific OHCM $90 x 4 (Inside numbers) play against the $400, I just don't like the money-generating chances with a random roller.

But I just don't have the imagination to see the possibilities... how much should I commit to the "longshot" bet on the H10?-- all I could come up with on the spur of the moment was a $50 H10 and a $250 Place 10. It guarantees a minimum win of $100 if the shooter 7s Out, or a $100 guaranteed win if s/he soft-10s--

and the "big killing" is when the H10 is hit--$350 for the H10, plus $500 for the $250 Place10 equals -->$350 plus $500 is $850. Subtract the original "with the house bets of $50 + 250" and the net is $550. That's only $150 more than if the 7 comes against a naked lone bet of $400 DC-10. It hardly seems worth it since the HW is so rare "on call". (as it turned out, he hit the H10 and I made the "sure" $150; but I wasn't happy with my on-the-spot betting scheme)

Am I wrong with my thought process? I suppose a $250 Place 10 offers the statistical "best" "can't lose" bet.

Can someone adjust the betting amounts to take better advantage of the $400 DC-10? Does anyone have a better scheme to leverage bigger payoffs with a $400 DC 10 (or 4)? Or should I just suck it up and hope to double up by playing the $400 DC-10 naked?

Thank you!

[heavy]

LOL. That's a tough one. I have a pal I play with from time to time who is a high limit Don't bettor. I watched him toss out a $5K naked DP bet (table max) and get knocked off. No problem. He tossed out a second naked $5K DP bet and got knocked off. Now, old Heavy would probably not have tossed that second one out, even at $50. But there he stood, down $10K. But he had around $3K left in his rack, so he tossed out a third DP bet of $2500 and got knocked off of THAT. NOW he's down to a measly $500 rack. He bet $100 on the Pass Line and the shooter tossed a three craps. I thought he was going to cry. I was standing there next to him laughing my ass off. Sometimes you just can't make the right decision. He ended up busting out on the next shooter and going to the house. Down about $15K for the day. No problem. I'm sure he was back with another $15K to play the next day. He can afford it. I run in fast company sometimes. But I crawl at a snail's pace compared to these guys.

My first thought was to play the Ricochet for one roll after the point is established to get something like a $100 DC established. So here's how that would go. Bypass the Come Out and wait until the shooter establishes a point. Once its established, Lay the point for enough to win $100 for one roll. $200 on the Four or Ten. $150 on the Five or Nine. $125 on the Six or Eight. Plus the vig on all of those. And bet a $100 DC. Now all you have to worry about is the shooter tossing his point on the next roll. Your Lay bet hedges your DC. Hop the point for enough to cover whatever part of that $100 DC you feel like you're uncomfortable losing. Or just go naked on it. Odds are very small that you'll lose the bet. Very few shooters are going to bullfrog the point right back. So, let's assume the DC travels to a point. Now you REMOVE THE LAY BET. You have a base $100 DC to work with. You can make a second DC bet for $100 - 200. I might go for something like $100. That's plenty. The other DC hedges it perfectly so you don't have to put any hop bets out there or go crazy. NOW you have $200 in DC bets established. To play a hybrid strategy, bet $204 across - $25 each Buy on the Four and Ten, $35 each Place on the Five and Nine ($36 Buy in Mississippi), $42 on the Six and Eight. Now any hit on any number will pay you $50 for $1 (except in Mississippi, where you'll get $53 for your Five/Nine Buy Bets. The only thing you have to worry about are getting hits on the numbers you have the DC bets on. You'll lose net $50 on those if they hit. If you want to hop them every roll you'll soon spend more money than you're likely to lose, but what the hell, hop them for $2-$3 each way and you probably won't get hurt too bad. If you make $31 and down on one when it hits it cuts your loss to $20 on that number. Personally, I'd probably go naked on it but it's your call. I'd be more likely to Press the Place Bet numbers on the ones I had the DC bets on after I'd collected five or more times, even if I just pressed a couple of units each. Again, cutting your potential losses and keeping things in balance. I don't know that you'll score any big wins unless you just make it a point to call it a hand on your Place and Buy bets after 10 - 12 rolls and take them all down and wait on a decision on the DC bets. But I'd probably only do THAT if at least one of my DC's was on the Four or Ten, making it less likely that I'd lose both of them.

Will it work? Beats me. It's just the first thing that came to mind.

[dork]

Damn, Heavy, your Ricochet strategy makes me itch all over tryin' to figure out if my strategy is good, bad, or equal...

I like the idea of Laying the point for $200/150/125 to cover the $100 DC and then leaving a lone naked $100 DC bet out there. Of course, at my discretion, I could choose the shooter's point to Lay or abstain--odds-wise, it costs me less to protect my $100 DC if I skip the 4/10 and 5/9 Points and choose to Lay the 6/8s, but lesser "expense" comes with greater "exposure", albeit for one roll--and that bullfrog leaves me hanging on for dear life to break even. If my DC point is made, I've at the least doubled my losses, with the limit being $300 with a lost Lay 4/10 bet (plus the original stake DP bet).

My way, I lose $21 Action ($15 Hop-7s, $5 Yo, and $1 Twelve) every time I successfully establish a $100 DC point. That is, minimally, I can protect my $100 DC at least 6x-- for the same money ($120 DC Odds) from resulting 6/8 bullfrogs (or 10x against 4/10 frogs) before I "break even" with the Ricochet scheme. But this way, my total loss is limited to $121 per hand.

Soooo... I axe ya'll--which scheme is statistically more sound? (because I don't have the mind to figure it out) Am I wasting too much money on the hedge bets? it seems so. Hell, I'm sure a bullfrog on a 4/10 occurs less than one time in 10. (is two in 72 even close?) So my $21 Action play would have to cover ten Lay-10 bets (@ $200) to be a benefit to me; I bet I'm payin' WAY more than that.

And for the rest of the Inside numbers, I can't tell (even if it's a random roller) if I should pick and choose the point to Lay or just make a Lay bet indiscriminately on the next roll and bet the $100 DC. The math is beyond me.

I hope I wrote this all well enough that my questions make enough sense to reply.

Thanks to All!

[Billionaireben]

I don't know of any 'can't lose' strategy, especially for 4 & 10 lays. Nick the Greek would place a large bet laying one of them, one time; if it lost he'd shrug it off as a 2-1 in his favor. One that I tinkered with before giving up on it: using dice control setting to 5/2 and 6/1, I'd lay the 5 and 9 (come out roll only) for a stretched amount so I'd bet the absolute most they'd allow for $1 vig each (some casinos now do vig on win for lay bets which is great, then I'd just make sure it pays correct and bet what I can afford.) The reasoning was you can get a string of 7's that pay more than either number would lose if hit, and that's just the random factor, adding dice control and that setting (if on any combination of that axis, it can't make a 5 or 9; but can make 7's as well as craps which is why I don't bet much on the pass line in this example.) I think I won once in a casino setting and lost a few times, not enough data to be sure but it often lost in home practice and even if it won it's not terribly scalable as I mainly focused on stretched bets (some benefit was lost at the time if one played higher stakes where stretching the bet is of less value.) Also, I think it risked more 4 and 10 points, more craps numbers; and I hoped for less crap outs and more inside points (no fire bet.) With 4 and 10, I usually bet it when either up or down; $39 w/$1 vig (maybe they'd allow $26 w/vig on win) and if the last few 10's had been easy I might throw a couple bucks on the hard 10 (I remember seeing that and calling out a bet and I had lost before my cash hit the table, lol; glad it was small.)

[Knick111]

jaime 1943.