Tunica Cotton Patch roll numbers and bet Analysis

[al_falcons]

Laguna Flats tracked some numbers over the weekend we were in Tunica for Heavy's Cotton Patch Seminar in August 2012. I am going to post those rolls and sessions here for everyone to take a look at. Then I am going to run some betting analysis of the numbers through WinCraps and post the results in a similar fashion that I did in the Dice Institute board here, http://diceinstitute.maxforum.org/2011/ ... g-testing/ I would have posted the numbers on that board, but since these numbers have come up in the other conversations on this board, I thought this was a better place for them. I don't know if I can post as well from Excel on this forum as the other one, but I will try. I am not going to spend a great amount of time on this, but try to do it as quick and painless as I can.

I have copies of 8 of the sessions where Laguna Flats recorded ALL the rolls for the table, not just the rolls for the DI shooters. So right off the bat, I am expecting the average win for most of my right side strategies to be less than they were in the Testing thread because these rolls include random rollers. I was at most of these tables and I can tell you that on some of them the random rollers shot better than the DI shooters, but for the most part we did better than the random rollers. In fact, I don't know which rolls were random or DI except for a few of the long ones, which I can probably remember who shot them. I am not going to say who rolled what or what casino these numbers were rolled at either.

Heavy said that he wanted someone to run the Nelly system across these numbers, and I can't do that because I don't know how to use that system and certainly don't have or want to have it in WinCraps!!! LOL. One request from the guy who is starting this thread, let's keep the comments about who rode the Short Bus to school and who didn't to ourselves. I like to keep the conversation to the point and about betting analysis.

Here is the first set of numbers, session #1.

3
6
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9
10
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11
6
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7

[al_falcons]

Here are some stats about these rolls:
number of rolls: 128
# of 7's: 24
SSR: 5.33
most passes in a hand: 4
% rolled: 42.9
passes: 20
misses: 21
pass %: 48.78
co rolls: 41
co pass: 8
co miss: 5
number of co rolls: 87
SRR on the Point Cycle: 5.44 (little bit better than overall SRR)
# of come out seven: 8
# of hands: 16
ave length of hand: 8.00
long roll: 24
# of points set: 28
Points rolled: 12
7-out: 16

[al_falcons]

If I remember this table correctly it was the Friday after noon that I arrived and one random shooter had a nice hand. I am going to assume that the 24 roll hand came from a random roller. Laguna Flats left the table before I did, so my good roll at this table wasn't tracked. I estimate that my roll was in the 20-22 roll range, It did last longer than 1 stick change and was estimated at about 30 minutes. I made some nice money on myself and the one random roller, beside that the table was luke warm at best. None of the right side betting strategies I just tested in WinCraps made a profit on these rolls. I will see if I can pull out an explanation of all these betting methods from the thread on the Dice Institute I mentioned in post 1 and post them later.

Method, Won/Loss
heavy 18 6&8-steve3 30, 42, 12: -189
heavy 18 6&8-steve6 30, 12,18, 30, 42, 12: -119
30-6&8 all the time: -155
Steve 3 plus pass25-100: -224
Steve 3 plus pass25-100 $2000 bankroll -224
Steve 3 plus pass25-100 $5000 bankroll -224
110 inside-44, $10 pass - 50 $2000 bank -234
110 inside-44 no pass line -302
5689 progress 66 inside -228
5689 steep - 220 inside, then my 5689 progress -582
mp108 across 2000 bank -215
mp204 across -459
mp204 across $2000 bankroll -459
mp204 across $3000 bankroll -459
mpsteep across3 $416 across, 64 across -1000
mpsteep across3 $416 across, 64 across $2000 bankroll -1590
mpsteep across3 $416 across, 64 across $5000 bankroll -1590
Al Falcons 2 hits and press $12 6&8 -68
12 6&8 press 6, 500 bank -102
12 6&8 press 6every other 500 bank -70
12 6&8 all the time 500 bank -62
44 inside all the time 500 bank -60
pass10-10, 500 bank -11
pass10-50, 1000 bank -15
pass10-50, 2000 bank -15
pass25-125 -37
pass25-125, $2000 bankroll -37
pass25-125, $5000 bankroll -37

[al_falcons]

I found some explanations on the betting strategies, probably missing a few too.

I assume $1000 bankroll unless otherwise stated. None of these place or buy bets work on the come out.
heavy 18 6&8-steve3 30, 42, 12, bet only on the 6&8 and press them in pairs on a win, 30, 42, 12, 30, 42, 12, 30, 42, 30, 42, 18 for the rest of the roll
heavy 18 6&8-steve6 30, 12,18, 30, 42, 12, bet only on the 6&8 and press them in pairs on a win. 30, 12, 18, 30, 42, 12, 18, 30 42, 12, 30 for the rest of the roll
Steve 3 plus pass25-100 $2000 bankroll. Same as the steve3 above, except bet $25 pass line and $100 odds on any point, even if it is a 6 or 8. In that case you have a place bet and and odds bet on the point number.
mp204 across - If you play this where they take the $1 vig for the first buy, it is really $206 across, not $204. $25 buy 4&10, $35 place 5&9 $42 place 6&8. Two hits and then regress to $44 inside. Then you press each number individually as you win. I will show you the 5 &9 and you can assume what you would do with 6&8. 15, 25, 35, 50, 75, 100, 150, 200, then same bet after that. MP would have you increasing your bets forever, but I got tired of programming WinCraps at that point and just flat bet it after that 9th hit.
mp108 across - $20 buy 4&10, $66 inside. Two hits and regress to 44 inside. Then the same press schedule as the $204 across
5689 progress 66 inside. $66 inside and then press in a pairs the 5&9 and 6&8. 5&9 goes 25, 35, 10, 15, 25, 25, 35, 10, 15, and flat bet there on out. You can guess the 6&8 schedule.
5689 steep - 220 inside, then my 5689 progress. same as the one above except start with $220 inside one hit and regress to $66 inside, then do the same progression in pairs. I do a $2000 bankroll on this one.
44 inside all the time 500 bank - just what is says $44 inside, no pressing.
pass10-10, 500 bank $10 pass line $10 odds all day.
pass10-50, 1000 bank, $10 pass line, $50 odds all day.
12 6&8 press 6, 500 bank $12 on 6 & 8 press $6 on a win, press numbers separately not as a pair.
12 6&8 all the time 500 bank - just what it says, $12 6&8 no pressing

[al_falcons]

So how did I make money on this session when all of "my" right side methods were losers? I was betting the dark side on the random rollers and the right side on the DI shooters. That was my plan for the Cotton Patch weekend, to try to bet only 1 don't pass and 1 don't pass single odds on every random shooter. One loss and I would quit for that shooter. Did I break away from this strategy on the first session I played, Hell yea! When I saw this random shooter tearing it up, I jumped on the pass line and threw out a couple inside bets. Here are some dark side strategies that had some mild success at this session:

nueral W7, 4 level progress - start over with going back to level 1: 80
nueral-dont-10w7: 80
Al Falcons Don't $10 Loss Progression 5-loss $2000 bankroll: 160
dave-isgood: 80
cowtip loss progress 30 max bet: -17
don’t 10 once: 40
don’t 10 once replace on win: 10
dont10-once 50 odds: 120

dark side methods explained.
Al Falcons Don't $10 Loss Progression 5-loss $2000 bankroll. An up as you lose loss progression, down as you win on the don't pass only. 10, 16, 26, 40, 70, 100, 150, 200, 300, 400, 400. If you win 2 in a row, then skip one of the bets as you lower you bets. If you lose 5 in a row on one hand, stop betting and wait for the next shooter, but pick up the progression where you left off.
Dave-Isgood goes like this $10 don't pass on the come out, when a 4-10 is the point, take 0 odds, put up a $10 don't come.. For that matter take 0 odds for any don't come that travels to the 4 or 10 also. If the point is 5,6,8, or 9, put down $30 in don't come odds. Put up a $10 don't come. don't worry about don't come losses or wins, just keep replacing them for now. After the don't come travels, lay $30 odds for any 5,6,8 or 9. Keep on doing this until you lose 2 lay bets on the don't come bets. Any 2 losses on the lay bets and pull all your odds down including your don't pass odds. Leave whatever don't pass or don't come bets and wait the results for this shooter out. This was explained by Isgood at Heavy's Biloxi class in 2012.
DylanFreak's old Cowtipping $10 don't loss progression, increase $1 on loss, decrease $1 on a win, parlay come out misses. I played this a few times and was able to yell "Cowtippin" twice!

nueral-dont-10w7 was the neural with 4 levels 8 steps each loss progression on the don't pass starting with $5. This was described by "Wolfebyte" or W7 on the dice institute board when I was testing out random rolls generated from WinCraps here: http://diceinstitute.maxforum.org/2012/ ... om-random/

I actually played this method the one time I played roulette that weekend and won 20% of my buy in for that session. I never made it above the 4th bet, $21 as the dealer was spinning a lot of black numbers which I was betting on.

Level 1
5,8,13,21,35,50,75 & 100.
If you lose past 100, start over at 10 on level 2
Level 2
10,16,26,40,65,105,275,450.
if you lose past 450, start over at 25 on level 3
level 3
25,40,65,105,175,275,450,800
if you lose past 800, start over at 50 on level 4
level 4
50,80,130,210,325,525,850, 1200
This strategy you never go back a level, once you are on a level, you have to stay there.

Second strategy "nueral W7, 4 level progress - start over with going back to level 1" is the same except for this one checks to see if you are on level 2,3,4 and are back above $0 loss, and if that happens, then you go all the way back to level 1 and your next bet is $5 and you start completely over. This strategy is a lot safer as you don't have to stay with larger bets once the profit is made.

don’t 10 once - one $10 don't pass bet win or lose only 1 bet.
don’t 10 once replace on win - same as above, but if you win, take the win and keep the $10 don't pass up
dont10-once 50 odds, one $10 don't pass bet win or lose. If the shooter sets a point without knocking off or paying your don't pass, then put $50 odds on the don't pass. This is similar to what I was playing except I was doing single odds, not 5x odds because I am a cheap player!

[al_falcons]

Here are the rolls for Session 2 of the Cotton Patch rolls. I believe this is the session where we had 2 random rollers had nice hands and all of us DI's were stinking up the joint. Again I "wanted" to be don't pass on the random shooters, but I didn't stand around too long with my pecker in my hand after they started heating up, I jumped on the right side with those two shooters and saved the session for me and everyone else at the table too! I left this table up 35% of my buy in.
I don't know if you Nelly System players need to know the hard numbers or not, I have excluded them from these rolls because I was lazy. Here they are: Any one going to try to run Nelly against these?
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11
5
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6
7

[heavy]

I was afraid of this. I am completely lost. Looks like there were some very nice hands in there - and more than a few PSO's. I'm going to have to think on this when I have more time. I went ahead and edited the numbers in that last post so that the sevens showed up in red. Makes it a little easier if you are running any type of analysis.

Regarding the video we shot in Tunica - that, too, is going to take a while to get through. I looked at somewhere around a hundred tosses yesterday. Some decent "influenced" tosses in the mix. Damn few of what I'd call "controlled" tosses. For my purpose, a controlled toss should be on-axis with the dice rotating in sync when they first strike the table. They should bounce straight to the back wall and strike very low on the wall, preferably on the flat part of the wall where there are no pips. After bouncing gently off the wall, the dice should come to rest no more than 4 - 6 inches apart. Few tosses are accomplishing that.

[al_falcons]

I was afraid of this. I am completely lost. Looks like there were some very nice hands in there - and more than a few PSO's. I'm going to have to think on this when I have more time. I went ahead and edited the numbers in that last post so that the sevens showed up in red. Makes it a little easier if you are running any type of analysis.
.

For the most part Heavy, I posted these numbers so that someone could try to run the Nelly System against them. Someone in another thread said that they would do that. You know me, I can toss these into WinCraps and run them against a bunch of systems in a short period of time, I don't have to do a lot of "what if" thinking once I get the rolls in WinCraps format. I thought it would be interesting to see how certain methods would do with a mix of DI and random rollers. Like I said at the top, Laguna Flats didn't identify the rollers as DI or Randy except for a few times in his notes. I am anxious to see some of the bet methods on the 2 monster rolls of 50+ and see how they did in those sessions. And since I was at a lot of these tables, I might be able to identify at least the monsters and maybe do some analysis on those by themselves.

[al_falcons]

Thanks Scribe, that is very interesting that you only made 19 bets and that 16 of them were on the dark side!!! How about session 2??
What was the win, loss, tie numbers on the dark side if the right side went 1 win, 1 loss and 1 tie?

[heavy]

Hey Clark -

As stated way up this thread - I do not want anyone posting Method results to post anything they think conflicts with the confidentiality clause. In particularly - I don't really need to see the "triggers" that prompted you to make any given bet. Thanks for running the numbers as you did.

h

[al_falcons]

I am anxious to see some of the bet methods on the 2 monster rolls of 50+ and see how they did in those sessions. And since I was at a lot of these tables, I might be able to identify at least the monsters and maybe do some analysis on those by themselves.

I have looked over the 8 sessions of rolls and unfortunately I only made a copy of the first 50+ hand, not the second one. So through the 8 sessions the best roll was 53 numbers, which happens in session 3. I will post that session later.

[heavy]

I am having surgery tomorrow and traveling the rest of the week.

My kind of guy. Have had several rounds of that myself. Worst one was surgery Thursday morning, drive to Dallas Thursday afternoon and board airplane for Vegas. Won't go into what kind of surgery, but except for take-off and landing, I stood the entire flight.

[al_falcons]

Good luck with the Surgery Scribe, here is the third session when you get a chance to look at it.
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10
4
6
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7
7
12
5
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7
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11
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8
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3
6
4
8
4
10
8
10
7
5
7

[WOLFBYTE]

AF, All..........

I have been up all night working on how to make the Tunica numbers turn into " cash cows. "

Being retired, night and day seem to merge into whatever I make the hours. I like being

retired.....options,options...

Anyway, I think I have come up with a way to hedge the hell ( 100% ) out of the Tunica #'s.

It is showing killer profits !

I have run and re-run AF's numbers and this is what works .....

There is a newer tread by " jessica " on JP's board called : " chasin the No Ten & No Four. "

THE SHORT VERSION OF THE POST :

".....I was in Vegas last weekend and I saw an old guy working the craps tables. He was looking for

cold tables. My table was turning cold...so...here he comes. He would wait for the point to be established ( he

would NOT play his system on the points of 4 and 10 ). He would wait for a few rolls to pass to see if a 4 or 10

is rolled.

EXAMPLE : Say a 9 is the point....3 or 4 rolls later, sure enough, a 10 was thrown. He then told the dealer....

" $41.00 No Ten. " A few rolls later a 7 showed. He collected his winnings and kept moving.

" The craps dealer told me about him. He is called... ' Ol' Hank ' and he goes from Casino to Casino

looking for cold tables. He never bets on the 4 or 10 points because of the shooters chances of coming back

with the point. ?

He stays at the table for only one shooter. If the 4/10 point is made...he moves on. "

JP's positive reply got me thinking. JP is hot with his ' Ricochet System. ' It takes away the

C/O seven from hurting the DP or DC player....forever !

I read an old Axis Power post about how a team of players are making $500.00 DP bets and hedging to

make + $2,000.00 to +$2,500.00 a week. The post stated they do have losses...but.. they do well ?

After laying-out the Tunica rolls in a number-after-number fashion, it is easy to see that the numbers are

NOT RR's numbers.

For the most part, they are much longer rolls than RR's rolls. There are more 4's & 10's

rolled than usual RR'S rolls with DI shooters.

I married Hank's DP system to the table min. Neural System & into John Patrick's 'Richochet System. '

The net $$$$ generated... blew me away !

I will never use my 4/10 system on a DI. I found that out at Lake Tahoe when the 3 DI guys took Harraha's

for $160,000.00 six weeks ago.

I used a straight-up $10.00 Neural as the ' bridge ' to tap into Hank's system. The progression is :

10,15,25,40,65,105,175,275 & it follows the same Silverthorne Neural System rules found in the 192

page original manual. It was updated to a 32-step neg. progression in 2004.

If I had 4 loses, in a row, I stopped betting until a non-betted winning outcome manifested. I then

resumed the DP progression. That way, I can stay in the " A " ( 8 steps ) beginning progression level.

In 60,000 back-tested rolls I found it works well. It is 100% hedged. Hank's system is not hedged.

I will post, line by line, the betting outcomes using the Tunica numbers and Hank's System with the Neural

System. I married both into JP's, most excellent, Ricochet System.

It generated mult. four figure $$$$ !

This is... NOT... pie-in-the-sky stuff. I used it at Lake Tahoe 3 weeks ago and it generated four

figure cash !

Thoughts ?
W7
aka: Wolfbyte

[heavy]

Yeah, we'd like to see a roll-by-roll breakdown of the results. Should be interesting.

h

[acpa]

i am one who believes that no betting method can be profitable on Randies, but with controlled shooters can be profitable, but not necessarily every time.

Noah

[Mad Professor]

This question is primarily for Scribe and W7, but I'd also like others to step in with their take on it too.

It revolves around the question of how many rolls need to be 'seen' or seen listed before you decide that a DI group-shoot table is bet-worthy for either of your methods.

In other words, were we to do the one-roll-every-minute betting-experiment in the Craps chatroom as proposed above; how many rolls, on average, would you have to 'see' before deciding to bet?

Further, on average, how many outcomes between each set of betting-decisions? If you are 'charting' for 20-minutes (~20 rolls)...make a quick series of bets and then go bet-dormant again for another 15 to 35-minutes; please try to explain.

Now if you are going to say, "It depends"; then please have the courtesy to flesh that out as best you can.

The reason I'm asking is because if we do end up doing this thing, is everyone going to sit there watching a couple of hundred rolls go by without either of you guys making a bet if the 'right' set of betting-conditions aren't met? Am I the only one who is going to have bets in action right from the get-go with the MP $204-Across Regression?

In other words, I'm trying to get a sense of how exciting or how boring this might be to casual observers who drop by to 'watch' all of these various betting-methods being played out in real-time.

Thanks,


MP

[WOLFBYTE]

MP.............

A most excellent question !

I for one have stopped betting John Patrick's ' Ricochet ' in the past, because, sometimes,

it was like watching paint dry.

But, using Ol' Hank's system .... " DOES have leg's ! " ... as JP pointed out in his long post.

He said he wrote something close to it in his Advanced Craps Book.

I think it is all about what drives a person be a craps player ?

I am driven to recover the + $80,000.00 I lost by putting it in a silver fund.

You know....the safe way to invest....gold and silver ? ......NOT !

Both metals are totally manipulated by the crooked Wall Street group. Silver dropped -$20.00

an ounce in a matter of a few days.....hours actually.

I have greedy kin that had my mentally-gone mother sign over her estate to them. I am working

on spell-work to do them in.

On the web, a New Orleans gent says he has sent 37 people to live with their

" non-Eathbound-kin " using spell-work...... hummmmmmm ?

Anyway, Hank's system is really a hoot. I find it is a good way to bet on the two number's that RR's

have the hardest time bringing back up.... the 4's and 10's.

As far as waiting around for a play to set up....I do not get bored because I am using a 100% in-play

segway play....the Neural System....at all times.

EXAMPLE :

On my last play @ Tahoe, I was using the $10.00 Neural game to bring up a 4/10 betting situation and it went :

.....-10.00......-15.00......-25.00...... -40.00 ......and finally a win at the neg. progression $65.00 level.

I set the V-2 to bring up a 4 or 10, as a point, and indeed, it brought up the ten.

I thought... " Now, I have you house " ....so....I took full $390.00 odds. My level two 4/10 progression

also required me to make a $300.00 lay-bet on the ten. I did.

I set the dice back-up with the same V-2 set that had brought up the 10, as the point. However, for a double-pitched seven

you leave a 1/8th inch opening on the dice seam closest to your body & you keep the back seam ...tightly closed.

I locked the shot-up by laying my right thumb across the open seam. My center finger was on the back-top

seam. I threw the dice as if they were on fire !

I was looking straight ahead, at Lake Tahoe, when the crew-kid said....

' Seven -out ' .... pay the don't bets.

This played out, over and over & brought up a mult. 4-figure color-up. I had rat-holed 1K in black chips, in my pants.

Well........ I have been rambling on....but....I think it is good to know where a person who is kicking-out system advice is

coming from....U think ?

Thoughts ?
W7
aka: Wolfbyte

[wudged]

I feel that the confidentiality clause I signed prevents me from telling you what I bet on nor why I made the bets I did.

Isn't telling what bets you would have made (but not the reason why) the same as somebody standing next to you in the casino and watching what you are betting on?

[heavy]

For example - from the Heavy arsenal of superstitious moves:

Dice go off the table . . . "Turn me off."

Climbing the stairs - shooter tosses 3 craps - 4 - 5 - 6 . . . "TURN ME OFF" because you just KNOW what number comes after 4-5-6.

What follows what? Shooter throws nine - bet the four (you should already have the five) . . .

The Prodigal Number Regurns - shooter tosses a 30 number hand without tossing a six - then tosses two sixes back to back - "Bring down everything except the six - power press the hell out of it . . . "

Stick change . . . "Turn me off."

Yo Eleven . . . "$4 Horn - turn off my place action."

"Ten Hard" "Turn me off - hop the point" or "Turn me off - dollar yo."

Don't ask why. It's all just superstition based. LOL.

Honestly, you can learn a lot just following old farts like me around the casino. But the most important things you'll learn are who has the best buffet and where to find the red headed stick chick.