Kentucky Derby 2019

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Raider
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Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2012 2:20 am

Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

oh, I misunderstood what he was saying. I thought he was talking about the horses last two races, not the pace of the last race. I focused on how he was betting.
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jaime1943
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Greetings Thick,

I am not looking for a horse that is the best of the best, if you want the best of the best , just look up the morning line, i am looking for a horse that will beat the best of the best OR will come in secound.

That is where my betting system comes in.

If you bet the best of the best YOU will be a loser at the track all your life, because those horses will only win 33% of all races.
jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

He is going to be at lower price. The game is to bet the lowest amount to make the most that you can. thats what I like about horseracing, you have to think. I think thick was talking more about how you picked the horse than how you bet him. quick out of the gate, esp in the derby is a key. getting to the front 1/3 of the pack keeps your from getting stuck in the traffic, then rate until its time to make the move with the gas you have left in the tank. I would call that running an E/P. I think what you were describing would be an E/S if he gets more than five lengths back . I like the S types, and kill see Mine that bird coming down from the clouds. All depends on the pace of the race.
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jaime1943
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Greetings Raider,

on the day of the race WATCH the late money on p.p.4-5-6-7 . also WATCH any money 5to1 or less on those
p.p /// 4-5-6-7.You have a 75% of one of those horses coming in to win or place.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

In other races, late money (less two mintues out)might mater but right now the only one that has a chance of being 5 to 1 or less is the 7, the 5 will be between under ten:1, the the other two will be greater than 20:1. Other than the 4, not bad choices, but dude, the 4?, ok he won in Dubai. I haven't watch that race. but doubt if he in in the top ten, and show me nothing. Right now, I am looking at 12,13,17 for LS and the 2, any other that is under 10:1. I am going to wait for the weather, and the draw
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Raider
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Hey Jaime, 45% chance of rain, now all we need is the draw
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jaime1943
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

If it rains, your winner will be coming out of p.p 4 or 5 or 6 or 7. and he will have the late money on him.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

For the life of me I can not see what you see in the four, but still have not watched his last race, at 50:1, too win, don't know. I think the winner will be out of the top four ( which includeds two of yours) , the 4 would blow up everything. You every do anythying with the Pick 6?
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heavy
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

My top four are the same as they were 2 weeks ago when the field was less certain. They remain:

Omaha Beach
Maximum Security
Tacitus

I've yet to sort the ORDER I think they'll finish but the order above looks pretty good to me.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy

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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

I can see Omaha beach and Maximum Security as being in the top two odds wise, Max becuase he hasn't lost as a 3yo and his times in the FLD, but, when you dig into that race, its not as good as it look. depending on the draw, if he gets boxed in, he is done. Omaha beach, I am leaning his way, its not so much his speed, as his control over it , he has one of the best jocks, and way better workouts, Roadster mmight get ITM, But last year SA WAs slow, this year, so far 22-24 Horses KIA, in the first three months of the year.with Bob baffert as trainer, sooner or later it will get some talk about how many trainers have won back to back, I think it is two. Game winner is slowing down, not un common after the peak, but it was a small peak, will he have another speed growth spurt? Tacitus... I was on him for a while, but I do like that tapits, and one of the Ortiz, both of whom end up in the winners ciricle when I don't want them too, from a decent stable.

for me its not about the winner, its who comes in second, third or fourth, Country House, War of Will, Long range toddy and by my standard will be in the mix, so my ticket is looking like the top four in odds, with them underneath in the extaca, then boxed with them in the third spot, the super I am still working on.
Its always the same with me this time of Year, I start working on it, think of something new to look at, make a tool to look at it, and use it next year, last year it was the top five of each of the 100pt races par chart, look at how each horse ran compared to past runners in those spots, and how the did in the derby.

But I still need the draw to see the race, until then, its all guesses
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Raider
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

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jaime1943
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Greetings Raider,

I see somebody dumped EARLY MONEY on win win win 7 days before the race... WHY.
He opened 30-1 then somebody dumped money on him AND he went down to 16-1 THEN he went to 20-1
then more money on him 20-1.
Can you handicap this horse and tell me what you see on him.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

if your going off the odds I posted, hang on let me check, yes, you looking at odds from four differant sources, not the change in the odds, you would need to check the vegas odds at this point, to see if the odds have changed. I have never tried that, would like see what money is where. give me some time on that, I never thought to look to see if I could access Vegas odds

as far w3 if anybody is dropping money on him in vegas, it would have to be because of buckerpasser and his last 1/8 in his last race, he lost a ton of ground, but i think will be pitched as a longshot,
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jaime1943
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Greetings raider,

The only horse i see with a Iregular race is WIN WIN WIN, so i will be betting him 200 dollars to win

200 dollars ex wheel [ for place/ come in secound ] and 400 dollars to show, this horse is the horse i am looking for to beat the best of the best.

Good luck on the derby Raider, jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

Raider
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

I think I looked at the wrong PP last time, He did come in from the clouds in the bluegrass. I have to say, I think Heavy is the better horseplayer out of the three of us, he has narrowed it down to four while you and me chanse the longshots. its just like craps, it all in how you bet. Best DI in the world can go broke making the wrong bets.

But he doesn't fit your profile on paper, his speed profile does, when you break it out
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jaime1943
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Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:21 pm

Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Greetings Raider,

Horse racing is not like CRAPS, i used to go to the race track looking for the horse that could beat the best of the best, show me a horse player that bets horses 9 to 2 or less AND i will show you a loser.

Some days handicapping the way i do, i may get 1 or 2 or 3 playable races, the other 6 races i would bet 2 dollars on the one horse JUST for fun.

I like the way you handicapp AND the way you bet, Heavy is a CRAPS player not a horse player, he looks for the best horse in the race AND not the horse that will make you lots of money THE best horses will keep you
eating hotdogs and not lobster.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

its not that the games them selfs are alike, but the betting tactics for one can be used on the other. thats why I have started naming my craps and roulette bets after horse raceing bets. In craps, when your the shooter, your the horse. You are either playing craps, or shooting craps. I had that run of good luck last week, I have won more this year on my shooting, and didn't get that kind of high. I have won about 3x that amount in one session, got lucky then t0o, but nothing like that.

tell you whats funny, last year I spotted a friend a \$2 win bet in the KYD. I picked the horses for him, and told him what bets would be best. he ended up winning \$40.40 cents. I told him this year I would give him the horses and the bets, but that I would not book his action, pointed him to NYRA whichs gives you up \$200 bucks in free bets, and that it was the best bet for him to make. HE GOT PISSED OFF. Said I was the only bookie he knew. I didn't make a dime off him, spotted his first bet just so he could enjoy the race. the bets I made for him won the TC(made money on each of legs) I lost money last year, id a .50 tri instead of a buck. Won't make the same mistake this year, but I might make another one. LOL

I Like the way you bet, its good for a longshot, the amount, dude.

Your betting would be a \$50 bet for me, and if hits, depending on the odds, could net 2k, or more.

I am going to added Win Win Win to my longshots, that gives me four. two bucks one each to win, then work them down in a superfecta, with the top four with the lowest odds on top, hell, Thats a what \$35 bet so hell, put the longshots on top. Make it a \$50 buck bet, A FREE BET,

want to make a bet on how many board memebers(if Any of them are reading this thread) won't take the free bet? If your bet hits, or mine, hell both could hit, I would love it if both hit. be a nice score for us and a lesson for them.

just like my friend, doesn't want to learn how to make a horse bet on the computer?
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Raider
Posts: 222
Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2012 2:20 am

Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

heres a link to a link for wagercomp, a program that tells you how much it take to make your bets, don't leave home without it.

http://thebeliever2.proboards.com/threa ... tor?page=1
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Raider
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Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2012 2:20 am

Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

OPPS Ihate to be wrong, but right now I am, I looked at the NYRA site, Its not what I thought it was, You have to bet 200 to get A 200 bonus, I thought ( ever, notice how everything you do wrong in life starts with that or I didn't think) It was a match type thing, I am sorry I brought it to anyones attention. Its still a good deal, but you would have to do it for 200, then play through the bonus. I feel like a fool. sorry. you would have to bet 200 in 14 days to get the bouns
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jaime1943
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Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:21 pm

Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Morning to you Raider,

Is ok, good idea putting my pick on your bets.

If you bet WIN WIN WIN on top ALSO bet the same amount of money on him to show.

In what state do you live in?

do you have to pay State Tax and City Tax on your winnings?

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A