A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

[stratocasterman]

Jaime...The singular Unit I use is 100Peso or $2 US here in the Philippines.

The main casino I go to, strangely, does NOT allow any tipping to any casino personnel except a waiter or waitress. Some other casinos will allow dealer tipping or a "dealer bet". You never know and have to ask if it's your first time there.

Funny story, the first time I went there I was at the Baccarat table and won like 7 10U bets in a row. The dealer gal was very sharp and handled the table/players VERY well IMO. Upon my 7th payout ($140 US), I tossed a 5U/$10 tip to the dealer. She said to me, "Change sir?" I said, "no, that is a toke for you. Please keep the Wins coming"! EVERYTHING came to an abrupt halt and silence. Everyone and dealer just stared at me like I was stupid! I kept repeating over and over again, "Toke, Tip". NOBODY understood what I was trying to convey! Finally, after a minute or two of this, this old woman sitting next to me grabbed my 500P chip and placed it onto my chip stack. Everyone relaxed and the game resumed. She whispered in my ear, "NO tip sir"!!!

Lifetime at Baccarat? Don't have exact figures but, I would say EVEN or a little behind (maybe $400-500 US). Now that I have discovered Target betting, things are changing for the positive very quickly!

Only recent loss? 55U or $110 US. I was UP 501U ($1002 US) prior to that loss, when I began this Target Betting journey. The thing about it is, I am in Recovery mode now, when I go back and play my next shoe. Been there done that Recovery thing over a dozen times before. I WILL get my Losses back and THEN some Target Betting. That is the beautiful thing about it if you "stick to your guns" and continue to play correctly. Gotta love it!

Although I left the casino at a loss that day, I FULLY intend to Recover that loss eventually. Remember too that my loss that day was from experimenting with a DIFFERENT strategy of going table to table, seeking ANY Target Bet scenario and betting it. Doesn't seem to work very well as just playing one entire shoe. I have played several overall losing shoes where Player was dominant but I STILL won betting Banker.

[Knick111]

Goodmorning stratocasterman,

Heavy will be glad to send you a copy of his system, get in touch with him AND make an order of said system

you can order it thru PAY PAL, and you will get a copy of the system.

hope that helps you out....... Jaime.

[KrapsNovice]

Strato,

If I may ask how many shoes did it take minus your last session to win the 501 units. Any updates since you last posted?

I played most of a shoe today. Not sure if I played 100% (although I believe I did) according to Seth or your play. Anyways, I went into recovery one time and came out of it after making 6 recovery bets. I must say things got a little tense once I bet the last of my recovery bets .

I hope all is well.
Keep Rocking It.
KN

[Irukanji]

Strat, have you tried this system on the Field bet in craps as you use the Iron Cross strategy? Best when I get the 5, 6 and 8 to 3 units each ($10 minimum table) so 15,18,18 then start $10 field bet and take it from there.

Doing the parlay method, 4 straight hits on the field bumps up your $10 to $160. I then take $150 and start all over again with $10 or $15.

[crapsjourney]

I have tried target 3 play on the field some time ago, and you should have seen looks the dealers gave me. Priceless. They didn’t know what I was doing playing the field since I never do. It’s extremely volatile and not a play for my conservative betting nature. I have a profit chart that I will post later when I find it showing a model of it from Excel. It can take some nasty draw downs. I don’t recommend it unless you have an extremely large bankroll and balls of steel.

[Irukanji]

I have tried target 3 play on the field some time ago, and you should have seen looks the dealers gave me. Priceless. They didn’t know what I was doing playing the field since I never do. It’s extremely volatile and not a play for my conservative betting nature. I have a profit chart that I will post later when I find it showing a model of it from Excel. It can take some nasty draw downs. I don’t recommend it unless you have an extremely large bankroll and balls of steel.

Were you doing the Iron Cross method at the same time? Playing the Field alone without a 5, 6 or 8 bet will definitely be volatile. Doing the Iron Cross at the same time kinda softens volatility. Bet accordingly.

[stratocasterman]

If I may ask how many shoes did it take minus your last session to win the 501 units. Any updates since you last posted?

KN...that was 10 shoes worth for the 501U. Almost EXACTLY right on my average Win figures in testing hundreds of shoes (50U per shoe).

Say you had a few "brown trouser" moments huh? It happens but, I think the more you get used to it, the more you know you will prevail in the end!

No haven't been back to Recover my 50U from my table "hopping" experiment the other day. Went on a staycation with the wife, nieces and nephews this past week to celebrate the wife's BDay.

Strat, have you tried this system on the Field bet in craps as you use the Iron Cross strategy?

Irukanji...Not exactly. I ran it in Wincraps on just betting the Field. I ran it dozens and dozens of times and got my clock cleaned!!! Aaron is correct, tread carefully!

I also saw your post on Pai Gow Poker. I have a Pai Gow Poker app on my phone and I play this strategy all the time with it. I knock it out of the park 99% of the time but, have yet to play in the casino. It's a little tougher getting the "back to back" Target Win but, it still works if you have the patience.

Overall, I think this strategy kills it at Baccarat and BlackJack. I think Aaron does very well in craps with it too from the Darkside.

Aaron...I would have loved to see the looks on the dealers faces!!!

[stratocasterman]

Banker vs. Player
Just wondering again, with some stats...???

I know most of you utilize Player as your "goto" Target bet...and, I know that you know I prefer Banker exclusively, as my Target bet. Yea, yea...the 10% tax or tariff!!!

Now you ALSO know, I make adjustments for this "tax" with an extra or "elevated" bet to cover for it, periodically. AND, maybe it's not fair for me to compare my Banker "tax" element here in the Philippines, which is a 50% commission on the Banker "Super Six" result ONLY (NO 10% constant "tax"). Yes there are on average only 3-5 Banker results of six per shoe usually (so I don't have very many situations where I actually need to recover). Sometimes...NONE!

BUT, I just wanted to illustrate some figures from my last 15 shoes that MAY make you re-think the logic.

I placed my last 15 played shoes in Excel and ALSO bet Player, exactly as I do Banker, with all my extra little rules...EXACTLY!

Total results are as follows:
Total Units Won
Player = 608U w/Full Recovery...no Carryovers
Banker = 1043U w/Full Recovery...no Carryovers

Total Target Wins
Player = 217
Banker = 274

Total Recovery Bets
Player = 51
Banker = 23

That's 42% MORE Banker Profit, and that figure is with FULL recovery of every Unit "taxed". If you just straight out deducted 10% from that figure (939U), that is still 35% More Banker Profit.

Also, notice the amount of Target Wins and over DOUBLE, the amount of "brown trouser" moments Recovery bets made on Player. As you can see with Banker, I rarely got behind and did not have to venture past a third loss bet but 23 times in 15 shoes...amazing if you ask me!

Again...
Banker vs. Player
Just wondering, maybe it's just a personal preference, maybe the extra tax coverage bet is too much hassle...???
Mo money IS mo money though!

Comments?

[crapsjourney]

Worth another look for me. Challenge accepted sir.

[House of Orange]

Gotta budget an hour or so to read these six pages. Gotta be a better way to take a load off the feet than playing high variance MS stud!

[crapsjourney]

Took the wife to casino for lunch and to show her how to play baccarat with target 3 play. Lunch was great. Won $20 in 20 mins which paid for her cosmopolitan. Base bet was $1. And I was exclusively playing banker. End result was she liked it but you guessed it. Said it was boring. And no where near as good as craps. My wife’s a quick study.

[wild child]

Should a Wage Slave aka:hourly rate employee experience
a full 40hr week x 52 weeks ,
said individual passes some 2080 Hrs annually *( Plus Benefits )
so engaged.............*

When target 3 is rewarded in favor of the per hour of the wager maker
There exists potential for exceeding basic hourly wage **
in mere minutes ....

-The DOWN SIDE occurs when the wager is settled in favor of THE HOUSE

* benefits include :Paid Time Off for Holidays ,Sick Days,Vacation
and contribution(s) toward Retirement

** Wage Maker is on either THE PLUS Side or Minus Side of each decision
and
THE Casino only pays benefits to it's employees ***

***Players who who go TOO DEEP on the negative side of the ledger
...may become "street performers"

With all that being said ,
the target 3concept may carry the day
for a "part time endeavor "

just me saying
w c

[crapsjourney]

@WC. Perhaps. However the same applies for any casino game or gambling in general.

I guess that's the allure of online casinos. Offering the ability to go "Pro" from your lounge chair in your pyjamas.

I know how I would program an online casino game in an unregulated industry with no accountability. And it wouldn't be in the players favour, or strictly adhering to payout percentages / scales. It's so easy to 'control the outcomes' with the programming, it's not funny.

Which is why I strictly only play computer terminals in regulated casinos. And even then, I still know I'm being gouged.

I use a per hour rate as my yard stick / KPI / baseline measurement of how to rate games.

If I can sit there and pull $80-$100/hr from a game, I'll choose that over a $10-$20/hr game.

And in most average punters games it would be a minus hourly rate, not a positive one. The casino has to keep the lights on from someone.

The majority of punters don't want to know their hourly rate of the games they play, because it's a negative value.

[wild child]

Aaron

Some months back , at one of the casinos in Vicksburg Mississippi Bride and I played a craps video machine with stadium seating for eight players.
.To my recollection, that session lasted about 30 - 40 minutes
and
we were the only players..
The minimum was $ U S D $0.25 or $0.50 ( 25 or 50 cents )
with a maximum of $100....We were orientating to the machine concept
and ranged our wagers from $1.00 to $5.00.....

To terminate /cash in simply tap the green "Cash Out "button
and
insert the payout ticket in one of a nearby slot machine Redemption Kiosk unit

We cashed out with a collective profit of slightly over $100...

The house had only one real craps table open and we could not get back on
to play due to that table chockablock full packed with a large number
of players awaiting an opening to wedge in..
The other craps tables sat unopened,with the regular craps crews
dealing Black Jack and other card games.

We made a follow up visit and the machine craps was not on the game floor..
There was one jammed up open craps table with the other crap tables
shuttered sitting idle.
We visited the three other casinos
then
drove the 50 miles home...

With little orientation to the craps machine , it becomes playable.
Our experience the machine was showing a Dark Side favorable session...

You could perhaps cycle through two hands in 90 seconds
or
at a somewhat slower pace if you preferred....

The machine craps was "entertaining ".
Even experiencing the machine Session WIN , we prefer an actual craps table
with live dealers and whatever status other players..

We have seen a multi table game machine in a Biloxi Casino
The seating was filled with eight players giving a go at machine card games .
About an hour into that joint and we cashed out.
Seemed the same players were "homesteading "
all involved in their machine card games.

just me saying
w c
.

.

[stratocasterman]

Took the wife to casino for lunch and to show her how to play baccarat with target 3 play. Lunch was great. Won $20 in 20 mins which paid for her cosmopolitan. Base bet was $1. And I was exclusively playing banker. End result was she liked it but you guessed it. Said it was boring. And no where near as good as craps. My wife’s a quick study.

Haha Aaron! Now your wife knows where/how to go get her Craps buy-in and when she gets thirsty for a free drink...

[stratocasterman]

WC...think I will finally have to break down and go to my LEAST favorite casino in town, to actually try out the mechanical craps machine they have. The few times I was there, I never saw anyone playing on it. That left me to think, THAT game is not very beatable. Maybe no one understood how to play it or were intimidated. Never understood why the craps players there did not play on it. SURELY that mechanical craps machine is more beatable than their actual trampoline and 5 foot tall rails craps tables (worse I have ever seen)!

Yes, all in all, Baccarat can be one of the most boring games in the casino but, IMO, Target Betting Baccarat or BlackJack is a very good way to make some extra cash to fund the exciting games...

[KrapsNovice]

Banker vs. Player
Just wondering again, with some stats...???

I placed my last 15 played shoes in Excel and ALSO bet Player, exactly as I do Banker, with all my extra little rules...EXACTLY!

Total results are as follows:
Total Units Won
Player = 608U w/Full Recovery...no Carryovers
Banker = 1043U w/Full Recovery...no Carryovers

Total Target Wins
Player = 217
Banker = 274

Total Recovery Bets
Player = 51
Banker = 23

That's 42% MORE Banker Profit, and that figure is with FULL recovery of every Unit "taxed". If you just straight out deducted 10% from that figure (939U), that is still 35% More Banker Profit.

Also, notice the amount of Target Wins and over DOUBLE, the amount of "brown trouser" moments Recovery bets made on Player. As you can see with Banker, I rarely got behind and did not have to venture past a third loss bet but 23 times in 15 shoes...amazing if you ask me!

Again...
Banker vs. Player
Just wondering, maybe it's just a personal preference, maybe the extra tax coverage bet is too much hassle...???
Mo money IS mo money though!

Comments?

Strato, it's great to see that Target is strong. I do have a question. What was the maximum number (or longest streak) of recovery bets you had to make on the B and P side for you to recover on these 15 shoes. Also, if I recall you had tested a hundred(s) of shoes, do you know what the maximum number of recovery bets (longest streak) you encountered there. Just asking not trying to give you a headache checking hundreds of shoes.

One more dumb question (just to clarify for myself) was the 53 and 21 recovery bets total bets or did you have to recover on the player side 53 times. I assume the former.

Keep hitting it out of the park!
KN

[wild child]

stratocasterman

The machine craps was streaky with an obvious
easy pattern to "waltz " around.......
.
The machines activate in the "time countdown window"
specifically programed or coded ( whatever is THE PROPER TERMINOLOGY )
into that specific machine by the Artificial Intelligentsia creatures
AND
not a single nanosecond PLUS or MINUS

In some casino markets , the Table Game Playing crowd
may find the unyielding ,non-variable time Window of Opportunity
other than to their Comfort Zone...
Gambles considered "off-putting" due to the time frame thing
are thus left to sit idle and taking up valuable floor space....
The units have to contribute to the Casino BOTTOM LINE or move on.
.
There was one Roulette Machine that was obviously streaky ,
and
it went gone The MOST PRONTO ,it made a breeze leaving the building!

Even MORE RAPIDLY than the underutilized units .

Be interesting to read the updates regarding
the a i experience in different casino markets across the Planet Earth..

w c

[stratocasterman]

Strato, it's great to see that Target is strong. I do have a question. What was the maximum number (or longest streak) of recovery bets you had to make on the B and P side for you to recover on these 15 shoes. Also, if I recall you had tested a hundred(s) of shoes, do you know what the maximum number of recovery bets (longest streak) you encountered there. Just asking not trying to give you a headache checking hundreds of shoes.

One more dumb question (just to clarify for myself) was the 53 and 21 recovery bets total bets or did you have to recover on the player side 53 times. I assume the former.

Keep hitting it out of the park!
KN

Let's see if I get this straight KN...max number of consecutive Recovery bets to fully Recover correct?

OK...let me see if I can explain this decently. I think I know what you are asking but, I want to clarify something first.

Keep in mind I don't ALWAYS make my Next Bet, a Recovery Bet. I, like Aaron, (after a losing bet) will go back to my BASE bet until I get back to a Winning way, BEFORE I start making any type of Recovery (I want to see the return to Winning form first). THEN and ONLY THEN, do I start making Recovery bets.

Sometimes, I may really be in the hole, say 100U or so. I most always, revert back to Base Bets up to 28U and Win along the way but, NEVER make a Recovery Bet just yet. Example would be say, sets of twos...PPBBPPBBPPBB. If I don't ever get into a decent streak beyond two back to back wins, I just refuse to make Recovery Bet. You see, in a way, the shoe has to prove to me that it CAN go beyond just streaks of two, before I start any Recovery.

If I was just to blindly bet a Recovery Bet after every second Win, I could get my a$$ handed to me like in the example above. THAT is why I wait for the streak to develop (and they will!) before betting any Recovery. OK.
---------------------------------------
Consecutive Player Recovery Bets Until Fully Recovered = 19...yes and that actually spanned 3 consecutive shoes!
Consecutive Banker Recovery Bets Until Fully Recovered = 8...spanned 2 shoes

Those other hundred or so shoes were not all played utilizing just specific Target Betting. Half or so of those test shoes were played with the original 13 Step Negative Progression Lee worked out. So, I cannot give you a figure on those.

Yes those were Total Amount of individual 25U bets to get Fully Recovered back to Zero
Total Player Recovery Bet Units Bet = 1275
Total Banker Recovery Bet Units Bet = 575

NOW, I think everyone sees why I play Banker only with all these different types of stats. YES, fighting the Banker "tax" is a big bummer, but still profitable and completely recoverable if you just incorporate a little bit extra in your Next Bet. I must admit, with me only fighting the Banker "Super Six" 50% commission, it is MUCH easier than fighting a constant 10% commission. Sometimes, I never even have to recover any "tax" within a shoe. If I do, it may be just only two or three times at most.

Remember what Heavy said...
"Get in, get up, get gone"

[stratocasterman]

The machines activate in the "time countdown window"
specifically programed or coded ( whatever is THE PROPER TERMINOLOGY )
into that specific machine by the Artificial Intelligentsia creatures
AND
not a single nanosecond PLUS or MINUS

I would hate that...don't like being rushed. BUT, I suppose if you don't know what your bet is going to be, you don't really have a plan or been paying much attention anyway huh?

Good thoughts w c...