Comparative Strategy Analysis

Setting and influencing the dice roll is just part of the picture. To beat the dice you have to know how to bet the dice. Whether you call it a "system," a "strategy," or just a way to play - this is the place to discuss it.

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Moe Bettor
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Re: Comparative Strategy Analysis

Post by Moe Bettor » Thu May 03, 2018 11:55 am

I don't think it's blind allegiance. I think is very carefully crafted allegiance. The object is to make the absurd logical by propagandizing and thereby dumb down people so that they will accept a state where lies are truth. We've seen this before. Whatever is in the nature of people to do..they will do it again. But it may all become irrelevant because Yellowstone eventually will blow. The safest place will probably be under a craps able in Biloxi.

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Bankerdude80
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Re: Comparative Strategy Analysis

Post by Bankerdude80 » Thu May 03, 2018 7:32 pm

irish wrote: Thu May 03, 2018 11:07 am Here's the formula to success.
Step 1: Gain Edge with DI techniques.
Step 2: Make wagers where the edge gained exceeds the HA of wagers made.
Is there a simple way to calculate one's DI edge at the game? I realize it is fluid. I know the Dice Tool in BT smooths out the data in its calculation and is therefore unreliable. Can a layman calculate it with just some basic stats from their rolling books of BT? Does one calculate one's overall edge? Or, is it best to focus on key (signature) numbers? I'm guessing one's edge has to be significant enough to offset the HA. It certainly can't be worthwhile if your edge is a negative number after factoring in the HA. For example, the HA on the 5 & 9 has to be tough to overcome.
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skasower
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Re: Comparative Strategy Analysis

Post by skasower » Thu May 03, 2018 9:17 pm

While there are aspects of "finesse" to DI specifically and craps in general, I couldn't disagree more. There's no magic. Here's the formula to success.
Irish, Thank you for the clarification. However, allow me to say where I think the "magic" exists. Some would call it luck. Before I launch into my examination of randomness I have a few caveats. First, I am not selling anything nor am I buying anything except the physics-based dice tossing methods. Second, and most important to the "magic" is my point about what some call "trends." How can a totally random set of dice rolls where each roll is independent of each other result in a "momentarily-sustained" trend? Dear Irish, I am going to delve somewhat into philosophy here, but if you are able to illuminate some flaw in my thinking, it would be most welcome.

When we step up to a craps table (and we are not the shooter), we can either bet on the activity or not. As a beginner DI, I have tried to determine when I should jump in and bet on another person's tosses. One approach is the Scoblete 5 count. That makes not sense to me as a philosopher or a scientist. That Scoblete method is really the worst kind of belief in "magic." Now, I have watched Howard R&Rr chart each shooter's rolls. That method tends to tell me more about the table or the dice than it does about who is going to break out and have a monster hand. So, I am left with the fact that sometimes there are those who break out with a monster hand within a random game where each roll is an independent event. Except, I believe in DI. I have seen DI "bend" the independent event assumption and succeed in multiple tosses over 20 or so rolls. It is those times that I believe the magic is at play Mr. Irish. Here is why.

I do not play craps frequently. The chance of my approaching a table when either a DI is tossing or a player is having a monster roll for whatever reason (I believe it is still a portion of randomness and that randomness is somehow "lumpy" where a series of box rolls occur with the seven out far into the rolling procession). I think it is "luck" or "magic" that my presence is coterminous with such events.

I am sure they happen. Heck, I read about them on the Trip Reports and Travels with Howard topics. But, I am not there. When my path in life becomes coterminous with such successful events, I am calling that "magic" or "luck."

My Irish, I understand the basis for your strong disagreement with the concept of "magic." I am suggesting that I too would object to the magic of believe in nonsense like the 5-count or some sort of mathematical nonsense like Obie1 or StraightSixes want us to believe exists. However, I do believe that some non-,mathematical "force" brings us to a successful session at the Craps Table, especially when I am either not a great DI or I am not shooting. Call it "fate," call it "magic," or dismiss it, but I have experienced such moments with absolute strangers at a Craps Table.

My shooting is improving. But I am still not dependable to myself. Still, others have caught trends at the table and I have bet on them and came out ahead (I have also came out behind).

Dear Mr. Irish, I value your very analytical perspectives. What I am trying to convey is that it is hard to come up with a mathematical or statistical method to determine when someone is having a monster hand. It is trust in one's gut, luck, or magic when we catch someone's monster hand when they are strangers to us and not people who we know have been practicing DI methods.

I am not going to regale you with my bonafides. I am educated in statistics and mathematics and have had a career in academia where that knowledge was paramount to success. What I am talking about is WAY more philosophical here and I am grasping at how to best explain it. But, truth be told, I am convinced that this "fate," or "magic" is controllable. I just have not quite cracked the code.

Please respond Mr. Irish as I am interested in this topic intellectually, not emotionally.

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Bankerdude80
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Re: Comparative Strategy Analysis

Post by Bankerdude80 » Thu May 03, 2018 10:19 pm

From the peanut gallery (me):
Isn't it just being in the right place at the right time? It would seem to me that these events are pure chance.

I am curious to see where this discussion goes...
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London Shooter
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Re: Comparative Strategy Analysis

Post by London Shooter » Fri May 04, 2018 6:20 am

Right place at the right time is the exact phrase I would choose too. It's just luck - bumping into positive variance and if you catch the action on a hot hand you'll remember it a lot more than being in the wrong place at the wrong time which is a much more common result.

Of course this "magic" or whatever you want to call it, is much more likely to cast its spell if you happen to be on a table of known DIs for two or three days.

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skasower
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Re: Comparative Strategy Analysis

Post by skasower » Fri May 04, 2018 12:12 pm

Isn't it just being in the right place at the right time? It would seem to me that these events are pure chance. /quote]
Right place at the right time is the exact phrase I would choose too. It's just luck - bumping into positive variance and if you catch the action on a hot hand you'll remember it a lot more than being in the wrong place at the wrong time which is a much more common result.
Dear BD and LS. I totally agree that this chance happening is "luck" or "random luck" or "fate" in a completely philosophical and non-scientific vein. Clearly once we are assuming a table around which our DI colleagues are standing, we remove much of the philosophical and fated components and enter a world wherein most of our discussions always focus. This is the area where Mr. Irish has exceeding brilliance and insight that I highly value. What I am mostly interested in can almost seem flaky as I am suggesting that we also should be able to DI our coterminous presence at the Craps Table when the trends occur (an hopefully notice them early enough to take advantage.

Thus, to place this discussion in the context I am struggling with, let's call it "the power of positive thinking." I know that the original discussion here was on placing large first cause bets then regressing or instead enter the betting slowly and press up. I was favoring the slowly, press up due to this "luck" or "fate" component. That is, when I walk up to the Craps Table, I never know what will happen (sadly, even when I am shooting). The power of positive thinking goes hand-in-hand with controlling the "crap" between our ears that Heavy discusses with us.

As Forest Gump proclaimed: "Momma always said that life is like a box of chocolates, you never know just what you're gonna get."

Thank you all for tolerating my diversion into the mystical, magical, world of fate, luck, karma, chance.

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skasower
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Re: Comparative Strategy Analysis

Post by skasower » Fri May 04, 2018 12:25 pm

Thank you Mr. Irish. You were preparing your very excellent response while I was responding to BD and LS. I am generally in agreement with you. I have just been pondering this random fate, not attempting to develop a methodology of moving it from random to predictable. I leave that to others who perhaps meditate high in the Himalayas or wander as an Ascetic Yogin somewhere in India. Well, of course they do not matter as they do not play craps and probably would not like this discussion. Still, can we grasp, somehow, whether there is anything to the "power of positive thinking" or even "team spirit" in the case of your coaching work with young people? And if we can wrap our brains around it, is there any way to "harness" or "invoke" it when we approach a Craps Table?

Thank you so very much for addressing this stuff. Remember, being born in California and subjected to way too much nonsense out West, I may be mistaking "random chance" with "fate" or "Karma," with little or no substance.

Did the guy who got bitten by the snake "deserve" it?

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skasower
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Re: Comparative Strategy Analysis

Post by skasower » Fri May 04, 2018 4:59 pm

Hi Irish,
While thinking about the nature of Karma, I suppose it is both religious and philosophical. I am not a Buddhist so I really am not well-versed in the religious aspects of it. But I kind of believe that one reaps as one sows.

Now, about the happy drunks...were they really operating with positive thinking or were they masking a deeper negative thoughts about themselves and life? Not that I have not already and will probably again find myself inebriated, I would not approach the Craps Table in such a state. I suspect the "power of positive thinking" to which I am referring is more of a Zen focus not inebriated merriment. That is why great athletes don't show up to play while "wasted."

As for the grumpy, certainly finding success despite their conviction that all and everything is against them, they have the capacity to be happy and positive.

I am also not a psychologist so that is why I am struggling with this concept. I am an economist and as such I am much more comfortable with practice, accomplishment, execution, and other measurable characteristics. Still, I am fascinated in the two extremely non-scientific phenomena we face as we approach the Craps Table: first is our sense of whether the shooter is catching a "trend." I hear you Irish that a "trend" is merely a lumping of numbers with no assurance of the next number. Secondly,...how do those amazing progressions of pressing happen outside of betting on ourselves (if we are accomplished DIs, or others, if they are known to us and we recognize their capabilities)? If it is all completely random, then on average we should lose betting on shooters who we think are into a trend.

This information is most important for those of us who have, as yet, not mastered DI adequately to feel a modicum of confidence, and who still hope for and depend on the capability or good fortune of others around the table. Clearly there is risk that as positive thinking as one could be and as much of a trend appears to be emerging, the next toss could take all one's pressed up bets....that is why they call it "gambling."

Anyhow, thank you Mr. Irish for a totally enjoyable and enlightening discussion. I hope to cross your path someday as I suspect we would enjoy the intellectual discussions that ensue. I will keep practicing my tosses as I find increasing comfort and hope that I am eventually "bending" the randomness somewhat in my favor.

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Big O
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Re: Comparative Strategy Analysis

Post by Big O » Thu May 31, 2018 1:49 pm

"Step 1: Gain Edge with DI techniques.
Step 2: Make wagers where the edge gained exceeds the HA of wagers made."

I agree this is the best formula for success, even though there is no guarantee of success.

" Still, can we grasp, somehow, whether there is anything to the "power of positive thinking".

I think any endeavor that requires a physical skill,( especially one that requires hand eye coordination coupled with complete concentration) a positive mental attitude is important. Positive thoughts may not affect dice, but they can have and effect on our toss impacting the outcome of the dice.

Then there is LUCK. Defined as "good fortune; advantage or success,considered as the result of chance. Obviously unpredictable it can have quite the impact on our success at the table.

" Sometimes that random variance occurs in a manner where a number or set of number occur in closer relation than we are expecting"
I you can be at the table when this event occurs whether it causes a monster hand or just enough repeating set of numbers to capitalize on, it can be very profitable.

I had an experience at the tables once that illustrates this point. It had been a rough night at the tables real choppy to cold. When i arrived there were several known DIs at the table that expressed the state of the action to me as i bought in. My first two tosses were less than stellar as well. Most of the Di s and several unknowns at the table colored up after my second toss. I stayed and one other Di stayed leaving just 5 at the table. I wanted to stay and toss at least one more time. I did not bet on the two shooters to my left. The other Di moved to SO on the right side, his preferred spot. There was a lady to his right but she had passed the dice each time they came around. Thinking he was next i went up 5,5,5 on the ATS. I turned to tip the server that brought me some water and when i turned back i saw the lady making her first toss. My first thought was i just wasted another 15 bucks. She went on to hit the full ATS!

Obliviously pure chance that my mistake encountered positive random variance. It was luck, but it did feel magical as it was happening.

Gain and edge, bet smart, think positive, get lucky now thats a winning formula. If you could bottle it.


'
"if it was easy anyone could do it"

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skasower
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Re: Comparative Strategy Analysis

Post by skasower » Thu May 31, 2018 2:15 pm

Mr. Big O, thank you for clarifying the point about "positive thinking" and its impact on our athletic performance. This is the concept that I was struggling to describe and you Sir, nailed it. Yes, there is always some sort of "magic" just around the corner that we cannot predict. It is like walking up to the slot machine and after one "pull" you hit the big jackpot. Not impossible, not probable, and certainly not predictable. Totally random with no influence from the mind-body interaction. But, like golf, bowling, archery, or any other athletic endeavor, random can be overcome by capability, competence, and practices. All of these things are at play when we approach the craps table as DI's.

But, when we don't know the other shooters, it is a random reliance on "fate," "magic," "Karma," or just plain old "being at the right place at the right time."

Ain't life interesting!?

skasower...aka...
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