Working the mean

Setting and influencing the dice roll is just part of the picture. To beat the dice you have to know how to bet the dice. Whether you call it a "system," a "strategy," or just a way to play - this is the place to discuss it.

Moderators: irish, Maddog, 22Inside

lownslow
Posts: 51
Joined: Mon Dec 01, 2014 3:19 pm

Working the mean

Post by lownslow » Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:59 am

The mean is a little over 3 rolls, so does that impact you folks strategy at the table? Do you throw out a come bet, lay a number, or lay odds on a previously esablished dont bet like Heavy likes? How much signifigance if any does the mean help to formulate your battle plan?

thnick
Posts: 1023
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:31 pm

Re: Working the mean

Post by thnick » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:19 pm

This is one that nags at me slightly. Just slightly. Because I do wait for two rolls before committing. If the first two rolls look good, I'm in on the third roll. If the first two rolls look whackadoodle and the table has been narrowing down towards sevens I will probably go a no 4 or 10 against myself on the 3rd roll. Like a $51 no 4 and place the 6 and 8 for $12 each. Something like that.

House of Orange
Posts: 654
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2012 11:09 am

Re: Working the mean

Post by House of Orange » Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:14 pm

Why would you waste two rolls wondering how your shot is? If nothing else throw out two come bets.

thnick
Posts: 1023
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:31 pm

Re: Working the mean

Post by thnick » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:10 pm

Come bets are contract bets. And it would be one come bet as the first roll is off my PL. So I'm sitting there with a come bet moved to a number and I seven out with no way to take it down losing $20 instead of $10. My two first rolls are never wasted the way I see it. I can see what my shot is doing, I don't go PSO with more than my PL bet on the table. I'm not a big come bet player..although I have used a DP with a come bet to try and get a twofer on a seven.

User avatar
heavy
Site Admin
Posts: 10665
Joined: Mon Nov 22, 2010 11:46 am
Location: Texas
Contact:

Re: Working the mean

Post by heavy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:09 pm

HOA. Because - MATH.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy

irish
Posts: 1618
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:56 pm

Re: Working the mean

Post by irish » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:26 am

If you have an edge, you have to play the edge. Your data will tell you a lot if you know what you're looking for. In general, DI's will probably slightly shift the appearance rate of the seven on the first roll (in a better way) and the overall mean (also very slightly), but at the session level, anything can happen. That shift has to go somewhere. Your data may indicate a roll where you toss a seven at a rate higher than expected. Guess what roll number? Not roll 38. If you're trying to outguess short term variance at the session level or hand level, which is stronger than long term edge, good luck. If you're waiting a couple of rolls on your first hand at a table that you're unfamiliar with, absolutely. If you have an edge, not wagering on your rolls is a poor choice.

DI's who don't wager on every one of their tosses tells me everything I need to know about the confidence they have in their skill, their knowledge of the game in general and DI specifically, and their wager to bankroll ratio. Fear of a PSO is wasted energy. The PSO is as much of being a DI as long repeating hands. Actually moreso. Sevens happen. PSOs happen. Don't work the mean, work the edge.
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

lownslow
Posts: 51
Joined: Mon Dec 01, 2014 3:19 pm

Re: Working the mean

Post by lownslow » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:25 am

Great points. Thank you.

lownslow
Posts: 51
Joined: Mon Dec 01, 2014 3:19 pm

Re: Working the mean

Post by lownslow » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:03 am

There arent many di's in my area, so I was hoping to mabye use the mean as as a way to make a profit on the randies while waiting for the dice? Mabye a lay bet starting on the fourth roll of a chucker? Does the mean have any signifigance at all as pertains to a random game? Ive been studying my daughters old math book but I have managed to become further confused. Apologies to all if this is a silly question. You guys are great. This is the most informative, civil craps forum on the net.

irish
Posts: 1618
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:56 pm

Re: Working the mean

Post by irish » Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:15 am

lownslow, this is the eternal question. Can I profit from the random game? The answer is yes, maybe, probably not. In other words, there's a chance but it's unlikely. However, if you're looking for a way to wade through randies while you're waiting for the dice to come back, with as little risk as possible, I'd say a single dc bet.

Bet timing is a fool's errand. Averages, and means, and the like are based on very large sample sets. When you're standing at a craps table, variance from those averages is too strong to try to outguess. People want to tell you that previous rolls matter. They don't. It's a game of independent trials. People want to say there are "trends" or that numbers are "due." People will say that the math doesn't matter in the short term. All bogus. The most likely thing to occur at a craps table is a short roll. If you want a safe way to bet the randies, I would bet the don't at table minimum, specifically the DC. If you're feeling a little frisky, run a little negative progression on the dc. The most likely thing to occur at a craps table is short roll..... until a long roll occurs, And when that happens, the proper decision is to watch it go by. Let a randy shooter only beat you once on the DC and you'll be happier than trying to predict the next long roll or to outguess the dice. Also, look at Dylanfreak's cow tippin.

The last thing I'll say is if you're wading through 6,7,8 or more randies while waiting for the dice, you'll probably not be successful in your DI endeavors.
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

lownslow
Posts: 51
Joined: Mon Dec 01, 2014 3:19 pm

Re: Working the mean

Post by lownslow » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:08 am

Excellent points! I learn much from your perspective. Thank You!

User avatar
Big O
Posts: 511
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:11 pm

Re: Working the mean

Post by Big O » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:40 am

irish wrote,
Can I profit from the random game? The answer is yes, maybe, probably not.
This is classic, and unfortunately too true.
"if it was easy anyone could do it"

Bentonck
Posts: 134
Joined: Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:19 am

Re: Working the mean

Post by Bentonck » Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:57 am

irish wrote:
Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:15 am
The last thing I'll say is if you're wading through 6,7,8 or more randies while waiting for the dice, you'll probably not be successful in your DI endeavors.
This is the eternal problem and the reason I like 6 a.m. games. Or weekday afternoon games. I'm not a big nighttime player. I'd rather get my time in when I'm fresh, rested, and comletely sober. If I'm with friends, I'll play in the afternoons/evenings but then I'm just gambling. It's fun, it's not profitable. Every time I've cashed out big it was an early session.

If there are 10 people at the table I don't know, there is no way I'm bellying up.

thnick
Posts: 1023
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:31 pm

Re: Working the mean

Post by thnick » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:46 am

Agree. I hate crowded tables and will move away to another table. If that doesn't work I go play blackjack. Been working on the Hi-Lo count for a while now. Did ok for me in Tunica. I find that I have to keep practicing at it, though and I did make one mistake on just the basic strategy which you must know cold to even start counting.

House of Orange
Posts: 654
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2012 11:09 am

Re: Working the mean

Post by House of Orange » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:41 pm

Great last two posts. If we wish to be successful, we avoid crowds and work on developing another AP play. When I read about some one squeezing in at SR 25, the spirit of slap just comes upon me.

Bankerdude80
Posts: 1807
Joined: Sat Jul 13, 2013 6:05 pm

Re: Working the mean

Post by Bankerdude80 » Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:52 pm

irish wrote:
Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:26 am
If you have an edge, you have to play the edge.

DI's who don't wager on every one of their tosses tells me everything I need to know about the confidence they have in their skill, their knowledge of the game in general and DI specifically, and their wager to bankroll ratio. Fear of a PSO is wasted energy. The PSO is as much of being a DI as long repeating hands. Actually moreso. Sevens happen. PSOs happen. Don't work the mean, work the edge.
Unless you play a game within a game (GWAG) for the Comeout roll, the advantage play for the DI is to work on the comeout (WOTCO). It’s a waste to have that first CO roll go by and not get paid on it.

This is one of those areas where a lot of DI’s have issues. Primarily, the level of confidence in their toss so as to bet to their advantage/edge. Many struggle (myself included) with making optimal bets that are in line with their advantage. This leads to reduced profits when the long roll appears, and it also contributes to the difficulty in growing one’s bankroll.

For me, it comes back to managing “the crap between the ears”. Mastering that would make betting optimally so much easier.
"Take the Money and Run...."
- Steve Miller Band

User avatar
DarthNater
Posts: 621
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2011 8:01 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: Working the mean

Post by DarthNater » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:27 am

irish wrote:
Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:26 am
If you have an edge, you have to play the edge.
True, true, true......well said
Your lack of faith in The Force disturbs me, Commander.......

thnick
Posts: 1023
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:31 pm

Re: Working the mean

Post by thnick » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:27 am

And if you have the edge, don't hedge the edge? I'm saying, new day, new table..or at least one you haven't played in a while..are you on your game instantly? Do you actually have an edge? I've seen DI's crash and burn. But maybe you guys never have. Maybe you trust your throw and muscle memory and total focus to be good all the time, right? Give me a break. IMO, yes you should aggressively push your edge if you are positive you have one in the hand you are playing at the time you are playing it. And how do you know? I know if key numbers show. Ok..maybe it's just there all the time and you have to go through some PSO's and the like at times and that is part of the game. Hey. Ok I don't like that part of the game. So I avoid it.

irish
Posts: 1618
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:56 pm

Re: Working the mean

Post by irish » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:44 am

And if you have the edge, don't hedge the edge?
Yep. You're just adding more HA to overcome.
I'm saying, new day, new table..or at least one you haven't played in a while..are you on your game instantly?
I believe I said above, "If you're waiting a couple of rolls on your first hand at a table that you're unfamiliar with, absolutely."
I've seen DI's crash and burn. But maybe you guys never have.
Losing sessions are part of the ride. No way to avoid it. If you're bankrolled properly for the amount you're wagering, a bad session should not be so painful financially or emotionally that you consider it "crashing and burning." *
Maybe you trust your throw and muscle memory and total focus to be good all the time, right? Give me a break.
If I'm playing, I trust my throw. If my throw and focus seem off, I quit. Skipping rolls won't change the quality of my throw. If I'm playing when my throw is poor, I'm just gambling. That's what I avoid.
IMO, yes you should aggressively push your edge if you are positive you have one in the hand you are playing at the time you are playing it.
There's no way to know that information. You may decide because outcomes are matching your betting and expectations that you "have" an edge, but it could just be variance. No way to know one way or another. Randies experience variance that matches their betting and expectations all the time.
And how do you know? I know if key numbers show.
Those "key" numbers are not possible otherwise?
Ok..maybe it's just there all the time and you have to go through some PSO's and the like at times and that is part of the game. Hey. Ok I don't like that part of the game. So I avoid it.
Ah. ok. Slowly getting there. Yes. Part of the game. You may not like it, but avoiding it reduces profits, if you have an edge.

*My last "crash and burn" session is often referred to by Maddog and I as "The Silverton Massacre" in 2005~ish I think. The funny thing is, financially it wasn't awful. I think I lost about $400. But it was emotionally a "crash and burn" because I played a session I didn't really want to play, at a property I didn't really want to play at, in conditions that were poor, with people who I considered "friends" but turned out they weren't. Lesson learned. I've actually had a larger session loss since then, but my bankroll is larger and if I lose, I lose because of my choices. Not the choices of unreliable associates.
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

House of Orange
Posts: 654
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2012 11:09 am

Re: Working the mean

Post by House of Orange » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:19 am

Great post Irish. I have learned the hard way to divorce my unreliable associates, especially their wives at the tables.

thnick
Posts: 1023
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:31 pm

Re: Working the mean

Post by thnick » Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:02 am

Yes. All truths. Does reduce profit. And reverse is true. What fascinates me about this discussion..and it is a truth, that even if your throw feels good, looks good, and you are throwing numbers to yr. set..it may still be variance! It's sort of like religion. You gotta believe you have something even though you're not sure it even exists at the time it looks like it exists!

Post Reply