Regression Math

[Raider]

craps, two games in one, betting on other people, betting on what you think will happen when you shoot. At the end of the day, all betting decisons come down to one thing , bankroll. , plan you bets, bet your plan, and stick to it, discpline.

[memo]

I really like regression betting...
As I first recall it, we were, at some time in the hand, through a trigger or gut feeling, regressing to minim levels and then building up again, there by getting money, off the table. Pretty simple and effective.

Later, some variations of ISR, introduced a large initial bet, take two hits and reduce...
Then MP began promoting the 204...I called it the MP204 since it was my first introduction to a bet where all the box numbers produced the same payout. I am sure that Heavy will point out that it is not original...Nothing really is.

Not long after that, Wizard and Heavy began using and extrapolating the combinations of number sequences that the 204 is based on....I was sold. I am sure that they were batted around before that...If so it was subtle. Prior to that, I thought in sequences we all know, ie..10, 25, 35, 50, etc. for the five and nine.
Don't ask me why, but I really enjoy dropping three whites and taking a 6 or 8, from 18 dollars to 42. 75 dollar nine, collect the black and tip the red. Heavy has laid out these sequences many times, and I find it an exciting and profitable way to play. A semi aggressive press schedule while preserving capital along the way.

These days, I do not use the ISR as much. (Ask me why)
And I use the 204 even less, because of the confusion it brings to the table. However, I do love to get to a 50 for one payout. From that point, as Buzz Light Year says...On to infinity!

Memo

[220Inside]

I do love the $50 for $1 and $105 payouts. There's something about the initial payouts at those levels that instill the confidence that a big hand is shaping up.

[heavy]

Yeah, Memo. If you go back to my original betting strategy stuff from 2002 you'll find what I call the Pyramid Place Betting Strategy. I don't think I filled in the amounts, but it is exactly what the 204 across play is based on - intentionally or not. No problem. It's what is referred to as "the thinking man's solution." That's why it's impossible to "copyright" a betting strategy. You cannot copyright a strategy that any thinking man could reasonably have come up with on his own, given time. However, you CAN copyright the WORDS you used to describe the system. So I could, in fact, copyright Pyramid Place Bet Strategy because as far as I know no one else used that term previously in print. Likewise, MP could probably claim the $204 across play as his own (although I sometimes wonder how much input wizard may have had in that). But in the end it doesn't really matter. What matters is finding the play that works best for YOUR bankroll, YOUR risk tolerance, YOUR available time at the table, etc. Then that becomes YOUR winning play. Wear it out.

[memo]

What matters is finding the play that works best for YOUR bankroll, YOUR risk tolerance, YOUR available time at the table, etc. Then that becomes YOUR winning play. Wear it out.

Heavy,
One day in a galaxy far away, I was sitting with Wizard and imbibing several adult beverages and we came up with...
Wait for it....
The Wizards Version of MP204 with a Frustrated Gamblers Spin. There it is.
Little did I realize that it was actually 'The Thinking Mans Triangular Solution to the Pyramid in the Stars'. (copyright it)

At any rate..We were trying to formulate a way to up my average bet (green chip) without needing a session stake and Bank roll that is required for a true 204 or even a 165 across. And it did meet all the requirements you stated above. With a significant, however much smaller increase in buy in, bank roll, than straight bet. I went from a 100+ average roll to 200+ average roll.
....Even though I was betting most of the time well below 200...It was easy to justify 200+ much like placing a black chip, 96 across and four for the staff idea.

At the time, there was much discussion (on the old board) about how to determine mathematically what the best bank roll and buy in requirements are necessary for an ISR. Even MP joined in...However it seems like Heavy and possibly MD that came up with the equation...My regrets, DogandPonyShow....I have burned too many brain cells to recall....And I believe that is really to your question, or part of it.
Hmm, come to think of it...Interesting, however not significant; this conversation went on prior to MP introducing his/the 204 bet.

Memo

[heavy]

Yeah, I hear you Memo.

My solution to this - on the RIGHT SHOOTER - is NOT to do the pyramid. It's simply $96 across - then press INTO a Pyramid. The Six and Eight get power pressed from $18 to $42. The Five and Nine go to $35 and you get $1 change on each. The Four and Ten go to $25 and you get your original $15 bet plus $2 change back. Now you're at $204 across. With that said, I don't believe in pressing every bet on the first hit. For my money, the first hit on any "pair" becomes the dominant. That's the number that gets pressed. The other number gets "same bet" until everything else on the table is paid for. That means you'll have different bets pressed up every time, but the DICE will make that decision - not you. Just go with the flow and see where it takes you.

[DanF]

Yeah, I hear you Memo.

My solution to this - on the RIGHT SHOOTER - is NOT to do the pyramid. It's simply $96 across - then press INTO a Pyramid. The Six and Eight get power pressed from $18 to $42. The Five and Nine go to $35 and you get $1 change on each. The Four and Ten go to $25 and you get your original $15 bet plus $2 change back. Now you're at $204 across. With that said, I don't believe in pressing every bet on the first hit. For my money, the first hit on any "pair" becomes the dominant. That's the number that gets pressed. The other number gets "same bet" until everything else on the table is paid for. That means you'll have different bets pressed up every time, but the DICE will make that decision - not you. Just go with the flow and see where it takes you.

I use that strat on a 5$ table actually.

6$ to 18$ for 5$, same bet, press to 42$.
Get the piramid setted up in a few hits and drawing greens out. Doesn’t work all the time to powerpress first hit, but you cut costs when it’s working.

Regression is another story, it’s for a table that average 10 hits which progression don’t have time to kick in.
It’s not my favorite, but it boost profits played at the right time.

Powerpress and regress makes a good job too.