How do you Profit from Short Hands?

[heavy]

We've talked a bit about EV, Standard Deviation and Variance of late. Now let's talk about the real world at the tables we play. And it's "put on your big boy pants" time and time to admit that you have SOME sort of action on pretty much every shooter who touches the dice - even if it's just a $6 six and eight. With that in mind, let me toss out some numbers:

Average random hand at craps is roughly eight rolls long. That includes the come out roll (which might include a few naturals and craps numbers) and the seven out roll.

The seven shows up on average one roll out of six.

On short hands the seven is most likely to show up on foll three.

Now I'll give you $120 for your bankroll. There are five other players at the table in addition to yourself. I'd like to hear your "no bullshit" approach to this play.

I'll go ahead and give Shootitall's answer:

$6 Don't Pass - Establish a point - Place the six and eight for $6 each. Hard to argue with this one, although one thing I like to do is collect a couple of times on the six and eight, then bring them down and just wait for a decision on the DP.

Someone is clearly going to try an Iron Cross variant so I'll give that one:

$34 inside on the five, six, and eight - plus $5 in the Field (I'd probably bet $6 in the Field). The downside of this is you have a third of your total bankroll out there on the first shooter, so if you get by for a hit or two you'd best bring it down.

I'll guarantee you that someone is going to step up and talk about regressions, so I'll get out of the way and let you do that. Any other strategies? Remember, you have to bet something on every shooter - even the random rollers.

[Dark Side]

Don't only, I do not shoot.

Based on a $120 bankroll wager $10 flat DP or DC (demands how many naturals are showing on the DP), no lay.

Natural on DP or DC consider a loss, wait for next shooter.

Crap 2 or 3 DP or DC consider a win pick up all chips, waif for next shooter.

Point established, wait the outcome.

Establish win/loss mark, in this case I would target $40 win, loss $60. Either way I walk, no reservation.

This is how I play every session, win percentage currently 70%. Always walk when you hit your marks regardless how quickly they happen.

[rhythm roller]

Random rollers. Skip the Come Out roll. Minimum Come bet on roll three after point is established. If I lose the Come bet to a Craps number then I am done on that shooter. If the Come makes it to a box number then I take single odds and wait for a decision. This is my normal bet on random rollers at the table. If my bankroll was only $120 then I would basically be playing the same way on myself except bet on the line with single odds and if I lost line bet to a Craps number I would replace so I could continue shooting. With my usual bankroll the bet on myself would be a large bet across and after 2 hits a steep regression.

[$5Bill]

Remember, you have to bet something on every shooter - even the random rollers.

Well that’s not going to happen. The only way I would bet on every shooter is if I was the only one at the table.

At my casino there are too many regulars. Some are pretty good. I’m a don’t player so I am not about to play the Don’t on these shooters. Every time I do switch to the right side on them, they 7-out on me. Most of my losses come from betting on other players.

My regular play when I have to play at a crowed table is: Wait 8 rolls and then put $10 in the Don’t Come. Depending on who is shooting when my point becomes the 6 or 8, I may or may not place it for $10. Or you could put $13 in the Don’t Come and if it goes to the 6 or 8 place it for $12. At that point you will win $1 no matter what happens. On all shooters; If my Don’t Come goes to the 5 or 9, I leave it to win or lose. If my Don’t Come goes to the 4 or 10, I will lay single odds. Losing a 4 or 10 lay bet on my Flat bet is a killer. Sometimes I can lose $60 on that shooter. Two losses and I am done with that player.

Yesterday Afternoon I had the table all to myself. My goal was +$50 on a $300 buy-in. It took 15 minutes and I had my $50 and I was out of there. Got a free buffet out of it too.

Grand Victoria Buffet.jpg (179.32 KiB) Viewed 16507 times

$5Bill

[crapsjourney]

Great replies so far. I'll chime in with I try to keep my bets on the table at 10% of the buyin. So for $120 buyin, that limits me to around $12, so that would have me on the DP or as $5Bill states bypass the CO and go for a DC after a few rolls. 10% gives you a few chances to make a profit.

[SHOOTITALL]

SHOOTITALL wrote:
. . ."bring them down and just wait for a decision on the DP."

However, if the point is 4 or 10, I may waste a buck on the HW, simply because I have a weakness for the HWs. A Bad bet is like a gal that rejected you, you keep going back even though you know it is mostly futile, but Sometimes!!!! the trip is worth it.

[heavy]

A Bad bet is like a gal that rejected you, you keep going back even though you know it is mostly futile, but Sometimes!!!! the trip is worth it.

Translated - "The worst sex I ever had still ended well."

[stratocasterman]

$6 tables here...
Wait for the fourth roll, including the CO.
$10 DC
If DC travels to 5,6,8 or 9, place the same number for $10
If DC travels to the 4 or 10, place the same number for $6
Await the outcome
If shooter makes the point (other than my DC/Place bet), I WOTCO my Place bet
If the DC bet wins or loses without traveling, I'm done with that shooter
Rinse/Repeat...not going to make/lose much either way but, it is action on most every shooter that can toss at least 3 shots w/o a seven

[Moe Bettor]

Since you have to bet on every shooter, the dark side plays are great. On the other hand if the randy is
throwing a lot of 4s or 10s or horns..I might just do a progression on the horns or buy the 4 and 10..or if he/she is
hitting inside numbers I'd give those a go, regress, press. I simply find it hard to play for a buck going both ways and hedging..but
a buck here and a buck there adds up, I admit. If the throw starts to fail around 5 rolls in..I will probably go no 10.

[mssthis1]

Table minimum DP. No odds. Go up $1 after a loss, down $1 after a win. 3 losses wait for next shooter. That's the most action I could justify with that session bankroll.

[heavy]

Table minimum DP. No odds. Go up $1 after a loss, down $1 after a win. 3 losses wait for next shooter. That's the most action I could justify with that session bankroll.

Question for you: How do you go down a dollar on a loss if you are playing a table minimum DP and lose the first bet . . . or the first three bets? Or do you just continue with the table minimum?

Question for anyone thinking along those lines: Would you consider playing a table minimum DC instead? If so, at which point would you toss in your DC bet? Would you consider laying against the point instead of playing the DP or DC?

[Moe Bettor]

I go in DC after a number is set. I never get hit with first roll natural. Ten dollar table I will go $15 DC with a $1 yo and then lay odds. I tell the dealer "12 in back" and then perhaps another DC for $10. The lay for me comes late in the hand where the seven out has shown previously. Say the table is showing movement towards a quick 7 out at 4 or 5 rolls. I wait past that and if the randy's roll starts looking bad or chips are moving into his
hit area.."Here's $41 no ten."

[mssthis1]

Table minimum DP. No odds. Go up $1 after a loss, down $1 after a win. 3 losses wait for next shooter. That's the most action I could justify with that session bankroll.

Question for you: How do you go down a dollar on a loss if you are playing a table minimum DP and lose the first bet . . . or the first three bets? Or do you just continue with the table minimum?

Question for anyone thinking along those lines: Would you consider playing a table minimum DC instead? If so, at which point would you toss in your DC bet? Would you consider laying against the point instead of playing the DP or DC?

If you're at table minimum you're at your base bet and can't go any lower. I assumed that as a given. I been playing $10.00 min, up $10.00 on a loss, down $10.00 on a win on the bubble machines. On live play I bump my odds up or down in $30.00 increments and the flat just enough to be able to take the odds I intend to take. All the games here are 10x odds games. With the bankroll limitations in your example that wouldn't work very often as I usually get to $70.00 or more bets during the course of a session on the bubble machine.

If a player burns me 3 times on naturals, makes 3 points or looks like they are playing a comeout game and have a decent toss I'll either pass on them the next time they have the dice, only risk one bet on them or play a DC instead. For me, It just depends on the situation and what the table has been doing previously.


If a lot of naturals and PSO's have been happening I would definitely lay the point. With the bankroll limitations in your example it might be a short session though. lol.


While we're on the subject of don't play. If you ever see a green or black chipper waving off DC action, ask if you can take the action, and then place the point for an amount that will guarantee you a small win no matter what the decision is. The person who waved off the bet has already assumed all the risk.
.

[heavy]

If a lot of naturals and PSO's have been happening I would definitely lay the point. With the bankroll limitations in your example it might be a short session though. lol.

The reason I mentioned this - my pal DiceTrakkr's 99% strategy calls for the player to Lay against the point but only in certain situations like you mentioned. He uses his Beat the Odds tracking system to identify Lay points. When he hits one of those points he uses a negative progression laying the points. But here is the interesting point. Although he walks up to the table with $10K to play with - his initial buy in is $100.

This plays to a brief article that will be in the mid-month newsletter when it goes out Saturday. Essentially it talks about the characteristics of a professional player versus an amateur - or as I refer to it - the characteristics of a winner versus a loser.

DiceTrakkr goes to the casino with a specific plan to win a specific amount of money. It's not a particularly large amount of money. But he wins what amounts to 99% of his sessions. Yes, he'll re-buy as he needs to, but he rarely does. He can walk in the casino 20 out of 30 days, win $40 and walk away happy. That'll put $800 a month in the bank. At that rate you're looking at about a $10K a year win. Suddenly $40 looks like a substantial win. Yesterday his win was something like $104. A good day for his style of play. But DiceTrakkr is a professional in every sense of the term. He is definitely a "get in - get ahead and get gone" kind of guy.

[DanF]

My go to hot table play.

220 inside, press 110 inside on first hit, next hit down to 18$ 6&8. Makes 70$ first hit, 105$ second hit down to 36$ investment for 175$-36$=144$ profit locked on two hits.

A 6 or 8 will bring 21$ more, drop 9$ and have 66 inside working with 135$ locked in.

From there 6&8 go
18-42-60-90-150-300-510.

And 5&9
15-35-75-100-175-300-500.

Anytime 4&10 hits two times drop a min bet on it and go.
15-25-50-100-150-450

When bets spread too much or I have more then my rack on table, regress to minimum bets.

[heavy]

How often to you find yourself betting that way, Dan?

[bounce the bones]

This is simple I sit there when I get the dice I would go 18 dollar 6 and 8 after 4 collects I would put a come bet out and go up from there.

This will help clarify if I see a table with 4 or less and my spot is open I will go by in, but if before I get the dice 2 more people come to the table I am gone with out even shooting.

[heavy]

This Is a test. On the average hand (around 8 rolls) how many sixes and eights will you see? Queue the Jeopardy music. . .

[SHOOTITALL]

Hey, that's an easy answer: I'll see all that are thrown. I ain't blind yet.

[DanF]

How often to you find yourself betting that way, Dan?

When I'm up 200$ in a session and have a good toss or another DI dialing in. Almost never in recovery.

If I see too many short roll I walk away.