Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Setting and influencing the dice roll is just part of the picture. To beat the dice you have to know how to bet the dice. Whether you call it a "system," a "strategy," or just a way to play - this is the place to discuss it.

Moderators: irish, Maddog, 22Inside

DanF
Posts: 485
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:33 pm

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by DanF » Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:50 am

EV of a strategy has to be calculated in 3 ways.

Short run

Average run

Long run.

To win in any game, you need to lose the least on the long run, be as even as possible on average and have small losses and big wins on short run.

This way, if you have any tallent in said dice control, you could be net positive most times.

irish
Posts: 1618
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:56 pm

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by irish » Fri Jun 21, 2019 4:40 pm

Ok. Circling back. You're earning $4000/hr with this strategy, you don't have to spend all day in the casino. 2 hours day four days each week, that's 32k per week, times 30 weeks, your pulling down close to 1M. Second. That's not a simulator. It's either a play for free online site or a computer game. If it's the former, I have news, they reseed the RNG so that people who are playing for free think they have a winning strategy, and then opt to play for real cash. Suddenly their can't lose strategy hemorrhages money. If it's a computer game, that's what you're using as proof? We should use Monopoly dice to prove DI works.

Next, you initially used a single 6 or 8 wager as your example. Then you used a screenshot of winning $100k as your proof. Are you saying that you "won" 100k in 21 hours employing a progression only on a 6 or 8?

So as to not be the bearer of bad, but truthful news, I invite anyone else to run a sim on a 6 or 8 employing the progression laid out. Then tell us the results after 1000 decisions. My guess it will be approximately -1.4% x amount wagered. The simulation will demonstrate that there will probably be times when this srategy is in the black, but will probably end in negative territory. I guarantee that regardless of the number of decisions, it will never, EVER reach the 100k in profit threshold if you're starting with a $12 6 or 8.

Finally. If the EV is negative, the calculation for long, short or whatever run you want to reference will also be negative. You won't win because of EV, you'll win due to positive variance. AKA a lucky streak.
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

DanF
Posts: 485
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:33 pm

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by DanF » Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:29 pm

Where the hell have you seen 21h when I said 2 years.

Hey I paid myself two trips on winnings last year...don’t always win like everyone else.

It’s not perfect and I don’t use only this strategy in my book to win. I had a long losing streak this year too, it had me return to this strategy and I’m starting to win again.

Hell I could bullshit you all day, but if you’re smart you’ll have to run your own tests. And btw you don’t have to play 12$ 6&8 all the time, it would be plain stupid not to bet more when things are going your way. I have starting moves from 90...120,240,900,1200 planned in my pocket, just waiting to pull the trigger when I grow my roll up again...that’s if I stop spending the profits lol.

22Inside
Posts: 2009
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:26 pm
Location: Massachusetts

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by 22Inside » Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:45 pm

I guess since Heavy asked me to mind the fort while he's in Vegas for the next seminar, I should chime in here to remind you guys to tone it down just a bit. There are Facebook groups and other message boards where that name calling and related BS is welcome and even encouraged, but not here.

If you guys want to bitch slap each other, take it somewhere else.

irish
Posts: 1618
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:56 pm

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by irish » Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:07 pm

I don't think I could be more congenial. Dan has made a claim that it's "simple math" to win. He offered an example starting with a $12 6 or 8 progression. I asked for a simple sim to demonstrate his claim. He offered a screenshot of a free online casino game with $100k as his proof. None of this adds up . I have no idea if he started with a 200k bankroll in his make believe game. He's all over the map with his logic and backpedaling.

I'm watching my daughter play soccer, so I'm doing thumbnail computations. I believe there's about a 45% chance of a 6 or 8 rolling before a 7. If memory serves, there's approx. A 21% chance of two sixes rolling before a 7. Does it seem like "simple math" to win given those percentages? How long would the winning streak have to be to go from $12 6 to 100k?

Listen. I like regression. I like progressions. I like place bets and come bets and darkside. But it's not simple math that beats the game. It's certainly not the "simple math" of someone who can't demonstrate any math acuity. I understand why he's lashing out. I'd be frustrated too if I'd dug myself into a hole that deep.
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

User avatar
London Shooter
Posts: 2728
Joined: Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:15 am

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by London Shooter » Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:58 am

Simple maths will never show you can beat a random game full of negative EV bet, no matter how you bet, period. It just cannot happen unless you have some kind of edge or the game is not random.

I fully back up all Irish/Mainframe and others have said on this subject.

DanF
Posts: 485
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:33 pm

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by DanF » Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:11 am

Just saying, if you want to have any chance at this game, you need to start filling your rack early and not invest over your win goals.

mainframe
Posts: 152
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:07 am

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by mainframe » Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:25 am

ive seen all kind of conventional wisdom, some of it quite sound/good on this and other discussion boards.
Things like:
-dont gamble when you are tired, take breaks
-dont chase loses
-dont hedge (Wizard of Vegas says “dont hedge except when life-changing amounts of money are at stake”
-set session bankrolls, loss and win limits
-bet more aggressively when your re-circulating winnings, and more conservatively with your original bankroll

All of these things and more that Heavy and friends mention are good peices of advice that dont contradict laws of probability.

then ive seen some advice that is somewhat valueable, but does not stand up to rigor of mathematical analysis:

- hit and run- short aggressive gambling session where you turn a modest profit and walk away. sure thats good advice...but a short session is not mathematically likelier to be profitable than a long one. its the same negative ev in play for any number of trials. sure there is variance but that variance could sku positive or negative. think the darksider who moseys up to a table and wagers five consecutive dont pass bets, each losing either on a comeput 7, 11 or when a point is made.

the mathematically best strategy on random rollers is to wager only on lowest house edge bets on the layout. these are pass/dont pass with max odds, dc with max lay and 6:8 place bets.

User avatar
Big O
Posts: 511
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:11 pm

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by Big O » Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:56 am

mainframe wrote,
the mathematically best strategy on random rollers is to wager only on lowest house edge bets on the layout. these are pass/dont pass with max odds, dc with max lay and 6:8 place bets.
seems like sound advice. However i keep playing on tables that do not understand or have any respect for mathematical strategies while i am there. Ha, not disagreeing with mainframe just making light of this difficult game we play. Anyone ever have one of those sessions were you feel like your trying to steal the cheese out of the mouse trap every-time you reach forward to drop a chip in the come box for a bet.
"if it was easy anyone could do it"

User avatar
skasower
Posts: 249
Joined: Mon Jul 29, 2013 6:57 pm

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by skasower » Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:47 pm

There is no avoiding the statistic fact that each roll is an independent event. Assume that there is no dice influencing at all and what you have is a situation where each roll has a probability of landing each of the combinations that appear on the two dice. So, Mainframe is suggesting that for those who love to play craps and are facing an evening of Randies rolling nonsense, then we all know the probabilities: 7 has the highest probability of appearing. The next high probabilities belong to the 6 and 8. So, Mainframe's DP reflects the reality that 7 will appear with the highest probability. Placing the 6 and 8 reflects the next highest. So, Mainframe has the greatest probabilities covered.

Alas, as we all know, playing with Randies finds us at the mercy of the law of large numbers. This means that those probabilities will happen but only over many tosses. As we are generally hoping not to spend all day at the craps table, our actual experience, given a total Randy roller may appear to be good or bad for our gambling budget, since over a short period of time with a limited set of tosses, the results may not fully reflect the probabilistic prediction. Hey! That is pure gambling folks.

Good luck folks, learn and practice DI and help lift yourself out of the grim fact of probabilistic party pooping.

skasower, aka the guy who believes in DI and keeps practicing to perfect it (but alas, not yet perfected)
Profe$$or Ka$hFi$h

mainframe
Posts: 152
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:07 am

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by mainframe » Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:32 pm

It has been said that:
- An atheist is very much certain (or close to certain) that God does not exist. Some atheist who are truly open-minded will say "I can't discount that it is highly improbable, but still technically possible that God exists anymore than I can discount the technical possibility that mythical creatures such as elves, unicorns, or dragons exist".
- A "true believer" or person of faith (for any monotheistic religion) is very much certain (or close to certain) that God does exist
and
- An agnostic is undecided on the matter or claims "There may be a God, but I have no way of knowing for certain" or "Since I can't know for certain, it doesn't really matter if God exists or not.

I think I am cautiously optimistic but somewhat agnositc on the concept of dice influence. I try my darnedest to set the dice, keep them rotating on axis, and prevent them from hitting the back wall bumper too hard. I try to learn new techniques in dice influence. But I personally haven't seen any results of all my practice yield a consistent, net positive outcome on my wagers over time. I have had great sessions where not only did I have "long rolls", but the wagers I placed on my own rolls paid off well. I have had other sessions where i did abysmal, not just with PSOs or short rolls, but times where I have "shot from the don'ts" and couldn't land a seven for the life of me. I have also had sessions where I had long rolls, but didn't make all that much money from my betting pattern. I continue to seek with regards to DI.

User avatar
skasower
Posts: 249
Joined: Mon Jul 29, 2013 6:57 pm

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by skasower » Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:23 pm

I think I am cautiously optimistic but somewhat agnositc on the concept of dice influence. I try my darnedest to set the dice, keep them rotating on axis, and prevent them from hitting the back wall bumper too hard. I try to learn new techniques in dice influence. But I personally haven't seen any results of all my practice yield a consistent, net positive outcome on my wagers over time. I have had great sessions where not only did I have "long rolls", but the wagers I placed on my own rolls paid off well. I have had other sessions where i did abysmal, not just with PSOs or short rolls, but times where I have "shot from the don'ts" and couldn't land a seven for the life of me. I have also had sessions where I had long rolls, but didn't make all that much money from my betting pattern. I continue to seek with regards to DI.
I am with you on this Mainframe. I have not conquered the DI mountain either and wonder if I ever will. I have however, witnessed some pretty impressive tossing from our APC family members when I have had the honor of playing with them at the same table. That is almost like seeing a "burning bush." (Heavy this is NOT a reference to redheads)

I keep practicing and when I can I sign up for some training. Meanwhile, I don't blaspheme the DI!
Profe$$or Ka$hFi$h

Bentonck
Posts: 134
Joined: Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:19 am

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by Bentonck » Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:56 pm

skasower wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:23 pm

I am with you on this Mainframe. I have not conquered the DI mountain either and wonder if I ever will. I have however, witnessed some pretty impressive tossing from our APC family members when I have had the honor of playing with them at the same table. That is almost like seeing a "burning bush." (Heavy this is NOT a reference to redheads)
I am going to chime in here, and not about the redhead part....

I get to play craps only sporadically and cannot give years and years of data or personal experience as some of these guys can but I will testify (I am going to make this subjective so Irish doesn't jump me!) that, at least this weekend, I saw the burning bush. (Well, I guess now that I think about it, it could reference redheads but I digress....) I must have played 250-300 shooters over the last 5 days in Vegas, and EVERY, SINGLE, TIME there was a breakout hand it was one of our guys shooting it. Sometimes it was me! One time it was my wife. Now she took her first craps class and Heavy and N8r did their level best to teach her, not to keep the dice on AXIS, but just to keep the dice on the TABLE. But she found a stroke and like that dude that you watch practice swinging his golf club and you're thinking "HOLY SHIT! THERE IS NO WAY THAT GUY CAN HIT A BALL LIKE THAT" only to watch him punch one 270 yards down the middle with a stroke that looks like an epelectic attack, I was amazed by the way my wife went from struggling to hold the dice to setting a "grizzly-bear grip" that Heavy showed her and finding something resembling some kind of control .... I would say 50% of the time she is getting some spin on the dice and they are moving to the back wall, at 50% of the time it is completely random, but she put together several hands over the weekend. Variance? I would accept it was variance. When it's positive variance, I'll take it! She thinks, however, that she can now play craps and spent the plane-ride back talking about "next time" so whatever happened it was positive. My point being I have watched so many people throw so many hands of dice I can't help but notice that when a table is 50% DI and 50% random (which obviously only happends when we are all together) that the hands are basically *always* tossed by our guys.

I have a 5040 roll book of toss results showing a 6.59SRR and 4.49 BSR. I have not done the math because I'm not sure of the math (Irish, you have a class for this??) but I am 100% sure taking that toss to the casino that I have a positive EV, at least on the low-vig wagers (6,8, PL) and I feel a lot more confident. I still PSO. But I now believe when I PSO that the variance is just in the casino's favor at the moment, I take on faith now that I have a mathematical edge over the casino, if I can toss the dice. I didn't get to play with everyone enough to judge their results, but I played with Shawn over 5 or 6 sessions as we were at the same hotel and ended up playing together a lot and I can guarantee you he's playing with a positive edge. Did we win on every roll? Nope. Did he PSO too? Yep. Would I put money on his toss and my own each and every day of the week at the odds offered? You're damn right I would.

And I still think I can get better. I am off-topic as I wanted to address does DI work vs. the original lucky-streak question but it does, and as long as the numbers keep playing out I'll keep playing with a positive EV and love it.
Last edited by Bentonck on Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
skasower
Posts: 249
Joined: Mon Jul 29, 2013 6:57 pm

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by skasower » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:37 pm

Hi Ya Bentonck,
You found the path to the holy grail of craps. We cannot be fooled that luck will keep our budget in the black. Only practice and more practice can help. I suggest that you set up a practice rig at home and get some casino dice. Heavy has some nifty ones. I use Aloha Johnny's practice rig and some folding tables. It does not translate into the casino with surety but what it does do is allows me to practice the swing, grip, aim, and delicacy of my tosses.

I hope to cross you and your Wife's path one day. I go to Las Vegas at least quarterly on business and inevitably find myself at a craps table pondering whether I will see any "burning bushes," second comings, or nirvanas of dice tossing.

skasower, aka: "I don't believe in luck, but I sure believe in fate"
Profe$$or Ka$hFi$h

memo
Posts: 588
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:47 pm

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by memo » Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:24 pm

Bentonck,

I sure do agree with you....And this does tend to go off track for this thread , but there seems to be some question about validity of DI popping up.

There was so much positive results over the last weekend,(trip reports will ensue) I do not need proof. ...It may be positive variance. Who knows for sure. I am in no way cautiously optimistic , I just believe. If not for that, I would throw all this stuff out and quit playing craps altogether, since I think the game is otherwise unbeatable, and therefore would have no reason to play.

Memo

Bentonck
Posts: 134
Joined: Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:19 am

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by Bentonck » Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:49 am

Scout & Ska -

Yeah, we bought a full sized table. It is still not up, they are delivering all the glass on tomorrow for the project and my wife has an army at our house working on the "man-cave" where the thing is going up but at least she is as excited as I now and is on top of it trying to get them finished up. THey delivered the table two weeks ago but it's still crated until the room is ready.

Memo -

I heard Heavy, and then later N8r, talk about how if you keep rolling your book you eventually find your SRR regressing towards 6 and only the last 720 rolls really count....I am not sure I agree with that. They would be the most valid and what is working now, obviously, but besides taking it on faith (I've been asked once already in life to do that, isn't that enough faith??) I want to verify that I hold an edge. My favorite Reagan quote: "Trust, but verify".... I like seeing the edge in black and white. It makes the subjective decisions on rather to press that $180 eight to $420 a lot easier to swallow...hehehe

Bennie the Pooh (Mari came up with that one)

mainframe
Posts: 152
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:07 am

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by mainframe » Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:52 am

Memo: If you really managed to get your wife to sincerely enjoy craps, and take up DI practice, and even bought a full sized Craps table for a basement Man Cave, I'd argue that in a way, you are living the dream!

I sometimes wonder if convincing my wife to give it a try or hang out by the table during my shooting sessions would be a good thing. We currently have a different routine going where she and I feel I have better luck without her hovering nearby when I am playing craps. She usually does her own thing for the duration of my table sessions...plays low stakes slots (classic quarter a spin, three row, one line is her favorite) or goes outlet shopping if applicable, or hangs out by beach or pool if applicable.

memo
Posts: 588
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:47 pm

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by memo » Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:33 am

Bentonck wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:49 am
Memo -

I heard Heavy, and then later N8r, talk about how if you keep rolling your book you eventually find your SRR regressing towards 6 and only the last 720 rolls really count....I am not sure I agree with that. They would be the most valid and what is working now, obviously, but besides taking it on faith (I've been asked once already in life to do that, isn't that enough faith??) I want to verify that I hold an edge. My favorite Reagan quote: "Trust, but verify".... I like seeing the edge in black and white. It makes the subjective decisions on rather to press that $180 eight to $420 a lot easier to swallow...hehehe

Bennie the Pooh (Mari came up with that one)

'Bennie'... :)

The statements you heard are smack on.
The longer you do this and track, the more you will see your SRR distill itself to a more stable number, and it may not be what you think.

Additionally, your toss will mature, and you will need to modify your toss as it does...So, the last 720 are usually the most accurate just by virtue of being most recent. What is better is to compare the last two or three most recent books. That can be an eye opener, and very telling.

I once suggested to MD, that he incorporate something such that as the book hits 720, on the next input, the first toss of the book gets eliminated and the latest toss is added to the end (1 and 720 respectively)
In this way, one would have a never ending fresh book of rolls as one progresses...
Seemed like a good idea at the time.

Memo

House of Orange
Posts: 654
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2012 11:09 am

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by House of Orange » Wed Jun 26, 2019 10:18 am

mainframe wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:52 am
I sometimes wonder if convincing my wife to give it a try or hang out by the table during my shooting sessions would be a good thing. We currently have a different routine going where she and I feel I have better luck without her hovering nearby when I am playing craps. She usually does her own thing for the duration of my table sessions...plays low stakes slots (classic quarter a spin, three row, one line is her favorite) or goes outlet shopping if applicable, or hangs out by beach or pool if applicable.
I have often wondered whether it would be a good idea to have a SO at the table making proper bets, while I concentrated on shooting and charting. So much to think about, less may be more.

memo
Posts: 588
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:47 pm

Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by memo » Wed Jun 26, 2019 10:36 am

mainframe wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:52 am
Memo: If you really managed to get your wife to sincerely enjoy craps, and take up DI practice, and even bought a full sized Craps table for a basement Man Cave, I'd argue that in a way, you are living the dream!
I have a full sized table and a man cave. My girlfriend, became that; with the complete understanding and acceptance of my 'hobby' as our relationship progressed. Unfortunately, she has no interest in gaming in any way...Not even slots. She is, however, very supportive, and enjoys the friends I have garnered and comes along on many occasions....At the tables, the pools, shows, shopping, lounging, etc.
BTW...At this stage in life, it seems weird to call someone my girlfriend, but nothing else seems to fit. Fiancé is incorrect, and partner seems to have different connotation these days.

So I guess you could say, I am, living the dream, since she is so sympathetic when the dice take a bad turn, and rejoices my wins.
It is not really the same as you stated, but I really have a win, win...Course, that being said, I do have to stay away from the hookers. ;)

Memo

Post Reply