Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Setting and influencing the dice roll is just part of the picture. To beat the dice you have to know how to bet the dice. Whether you call it a "system," a "strategy," or just a way to play - this is the place to discuss it.

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irish
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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by irish » Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:36 pm

There is no law of nature's order.

There is no law of random events.

Try again.
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by irish » Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:50 pm

Actually, I've rethought sixshooter's challenge. Since they're not willing to submit their system for a mathematical evaluation, I've decided to accept the challenge, AGAIN, and play with lou. Since, what we're seeking here is to determine whether what lou claims is TRUE, I'll put up $5000 (while we're interested in establishing the truth, this will make it fun). We'll play 1000 one hour sessions. I'll let Lou know whenever I'm in a casino destination and since he's such a big, big winner, he can meet me. Lou will give me three of his "indicators" at the beginning of the challenge. When lou indicates one has occurred in a session, I'll track what occurs on the next roll. For the session to count, 15 unique "indicators" must occur in a session. After all the sessions are completed, if Lou's predictive abilities are two standard deviations greater than what probability predicts for two of the three "indicators," I'll pay him $5000, otherwise, he pays me. (IOW, Challenge accepted. For the fourth or fifth time at least)
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by six shooter » Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:39 pm

One Thousand (1000) one hour sessions, does that sound appealing. Three hundred flights to Vegas, Irish safe zone, sounds like Hillary on her campaign, stupid personal attacks and no substance. Why not a something fair and balanced, $25,000, in a neutral place like Tunica, 10 sessions and we will provide pet therapy, legos and play dough for you after the completed sessions.

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London Shooter
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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by London Shooter » Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:45 pm

DF I'm sure wincraps can be set to generate rolls based on an input SRR of whatever you want.

I only use the basic features of that software however so happy to be corrected if I have it wrong.

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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by irish » Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:47 pm

You're the one issuing the challenges dumbass. Don't make challenges that you can't back up. We already know you don't understand math. Again you demonstrate it. 10 sessions won't provide enough data to draw conclusions. By throwing out a big challenge wager means you're scared. Is that money you scammed from the suckers? See, you're not interested in the truth. The data would show you're a fraud. And after any session we play, I'd personally enjoy kicking your ass. That would just be for shits and giggles. Vegas next week? Come on fraud. I'm waiting. Heeeeere kitty kitty kitty.

You claim your crap is based in math, but you won't let mathematicians evaluate it. Because you're a fraud. You won't hold your crap up to enough sessions to draw conclusions. Because your system is fraudulent. You're too stupid to know when you've been out-maneuvered. As usual, you make a challenge, and then back-peddle. What a pussy.
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by DanF » Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:40 pm

10x6h with 36 roll an hour is 2160 roll. So for a fair 10000 roll session you would need to make 48-50 session to make it a good sample... with casino stress of real money betting, but who is going to pay 50 days of hotel and flights to prove a point...

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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by DanF » Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:42 pm

Not saying he's not scamming people, but we'll never know

irish
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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by irish » Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:58 pm

Then he should quit issuing challenges if he's not willing to back it up. Just crawl back in their hole and thank the Lord there are suckers to scam.
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

Kelph
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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by Kelph » Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:30 pm

Of course there are lucky streaks but the luck is being at the correct table at the correct time when the variance occurs. See, lots of luck involved.

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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by wild child » Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:15 pm

Barron Von Rothschild granted an interview near the end of his Earthly existence.
He answered the KEY FACTOR TO HIS GATHERING IMMENSE WEALTH

was

" I FREQUENTLY choose to exit the party early ......

while available to attend any (to him ) interesting opportunity
........ or words to that effect............."

just me saying
Wild Child

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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by heavy » Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:04 am

I plan to create many lucky streaks at craps in Biloxi next weekend. I plan to capitalize on streaks at roulette and minibac. I will continually recite the "win win win, pay pay psy" mantra.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy

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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by wild child » Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:19 pm

Patricia Demauro tossed her world Record 154 toss HAND
at the Borgata Casino & Hotel

DATE OF THE EVENT......May 23 ,2009

.
There are currently a number of references to the event on
The inter web
the total list is too cumbersome to include in this post

a search of the internet will ferret out the multitude of references articles & posts


Here I reference at least two(2) with spinets plucked from several others

WoW posted some detailed stuff
and
WWW.NextShooter.Com
broke the hand down to :

154 Dice Tosses

25 Pass Line Tosses

Duration of THE World Record Hand 4 Hours and 18 Minutes ....

Neither the Bogata nor Ms Demauro released specific $ usd amounts........
.
Some article on The inter web guessed the Total TABLE DOLLAR DUMP @ $187,000 ( ALL PLAYERS)
>
Another morsel of trivia eluded to

the shooter bouncing THE Dice OFF the table 3 or 4 times
prior to tossing TWO(2) or THREE (3) Come Out SEVENS (7)

before to establishing ....The First of 25 Twenty-Five ( 25 ) Pass Line Numbers....
....
Patricia Demauro and her friend revisited the same craps table the next evening
HOWEVER FACTOR
they only observed
and
walked away without playing OR TOUCHING the Dice

No other mention of Ms Demauro ,in the inter web search was unearthed by me....
......
One other trivia munchie

her World Record 154 ROLL CRAPS HAND was about 20 years
after the other MEGA 147 roll hand recorded in Las Vegas.......

Something to chew on:

Will a NEW GREATER WORLD RECORD DICE TOSS
of greater than 154 tosses in ONE Dice Turn
occur in 2029 ?

Should you luck up on THAT HAND in 2029 ( or whenever ) will YOU be PREPARED to BREAK THE BANK ?

Wish Bogata would release the official video of the 154 Roll Hand....

Should someone be able to investigate deeper
and
find more detailed ROLL BY ROLL Detail

PLEASE POST it here on Heavy's AxisPowerCraps site.....

just me saying
w c

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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by r_ventura_23 » Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:12 am

Patricia was from the town I went to high school in. Hope to match that roll some day. :)

22Inside
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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by 22Inside » Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:30 am

r_ventura_23 wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:12 am
Patricia was from the town I went to high school in. Hope to match that roll some day.
I'll start with being happy to break the century mark. Baby steps :)

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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by Big O » Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:50 am

AH, Yes,
My Unicorn. I have only told one person, two counting my wife that from the beginning the record roll was a goal. That just goes to show my level of naivete when i started pursuing this game. Hey, set your sights high, right? For now im with 22inside, triple digits would be cool. If your going to be a bear might as well be a Grizzly!
"if it was easy anyone could do it"

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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by thnick » Fri Jun 07, 2019 8:24 am

Pretty good for a random shooter, right? Do you bet on randies? I do. I have probably made as much on randies, if not more than on DIs. And it wasn't playing the dark side..although that works too. Somebody of import on this forum has stated he would go $18 6 and 8 on practically anybody who exhibited at least a rhythm roll and hit the same spot. I was surprised to hear that the table dump at Rosa's roll was only $187K. What does that tell you?

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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by r_ventura_23 » Fri Jun 07, 2019 8:46 am

22Inside wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:30 am
r_ventura_23 wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:12 am
Patricia was from the town I went to high school in. Hope to match that roll some day.
I'll start with being happy to break the century mark. Baby steps :)
Other then us being from the same town, I was only a 40 minute drive from the spot of the roll at that time. I wish I wold of decided to hit AC that night instead of make S'mores.....lol

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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by mainframe » Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:13 pm

heavy wrote:
Sun Feb 12, 2017 1:15 pm
I would simply say that in a random game, over the long run you're better off locking up a win early. Keep some action on the table if you wish - but play with your surplus winnings after you've locked up a win. There may be that streak of three or four consecutive sixes that Irish mentioned before, but there's no guarantee that the next toss won't be the ugly number. Low vig bets, variance, and a little bit of money management win the day.
Okay, I make no claim to understand the science or math of probability and variance in depth. Heavy your thought "in a random game...you're better off locking up a win early" is true and is also conventional wisdom. Sure, its a good idea to win early, and remove your session "buy in" from play and continue to play only with some of the profit. EXCEPT, in a random game with a slightly negative expectation/EV, your mathemetically more like to rack up an "early moderate loss" than an early win. Your mathematical chances of being "up" or "down" from your buy-in amount, regardless of how long or short a session you have, is essentially the same depending on the cumulative EV of all wagers made.
There is variance, and there are "streaks" of variance that favor the wagers you've made (positive variance) and streaks of variance *against" the wagers you've made (negative variance).

Mathematically, a "streak" is just a series of random event trials that are skewed to be atypical to the bell curve or "normative distribution" of random results. Statistically, 7s should show up 1/6th of the time, 6s and 8s 5/36ths of the time, etc. In and of itself a streak is neither a "winning streak" nor "losing streak". It only becomes a "winning streak" (or not) depending on the specific wagers one makes. For example, a series or "streak" of PSOs would be a great "Winning Streak" for betting the don't pass with Max Odds. It would be a horrific losing streak for betting passline with Max Odds.

I guess I am not saying new nor innovative above. Lucky streaks do "exist". They correspond with "high positive variance" favoring a particular players betting strategy. Patricia Demauro's famous 154 roll "streak" was neither inherently a winning nor losing streak. It was just a streak, and if you were at the table that fateful day in 2009, you could have benefited from it to varying degrees, depending on how you wagered. If you had consistently bet "don't pass with max lay odds" for all 154 rolls (replacing your wager each time the point number was hit), you would have had an abysmally BAD session. I don't know if statistics are available on how many points were "made" in those famous 154 rolls.

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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by irish » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:59 am

Great post mainframe. I did want to point out the following that you said,
EXCEPT, in a random game with a slightly negative expectation/EV, your mathemetically more like to rack up an "early moderate loss" than an early win.
John Patrick used to say, (and publish in his books) that 90% of players were ahead at some point in a session. This was one of the greatest lies ever spoken and was swallowed hook, line and sinker by unsuspecting, and math dis-inclined gamblers.
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

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Re: Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

Post by r_ventura_23 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:50 am

Not sure if this is true or not....

May 23th 2009 at The Borgata Hotel Casino and SpaAtlantic City, New Jersey

4 Hours and 18 Minutes
154 Rolls
25 Pass Line Wins

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