Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Setting and influencing the dice roll is just part of the picture. To beat the dice you have to know how to bet the dice. Whether you call it a "system," a "strategy," or just a way to play - this is the place to discuss it.

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irish
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Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by irish » Fri Apr 08, 2016 10:18 am

First I'll say this. On the right side, negative progressions (Up as you lose) will probably massacre your bankroll. On the don't, they're much less risky, and in fact, as demonstrated by DF, when planned properly and executed with discipline, can be income generators.

Before just slapping ideas up here, let's talk about the various issues. Then we can address them as we develop a strategy.

1. What are the killers of all don't systems?
2. What are best practices to prevent a single hand or back to back hands from making your negative progression multiply too high?
3. Why do negative progressions "work" better on the don't than the do?

DF has posted his cow tippin many times. An old poster named WWWWWWW used to post convoluted and theoretical negative progressions. I'd like to stay closer to DF and stay away theoretical. If your negative progression calls for a $500 wager to catch up, and you're NEVER going to make a $500 wager, then it's probably not useful to you or anyone else.

The only thing I'll ask of those who participate is that we stick to facts. No mumbo-jumbo of "indicators" and "due number" nonsense.

Ok. So we'll see where this goes. Let's start only with the questions above. We need to have some base parameters set before we start.

BTW. This is for random rollers.
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rhythm roller
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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by rhythm roller » Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:23 pm

I am really looking forward to the information and ideas this thread will generate.

I am a very novice "Don't" player but I will take shot a at the questions above just to see if I have actually learned anything regarding don't play.

(1) Come out 7's and even worse a string of come out 7's.

(2) I would guess limiting your progressions in some way but I am looking forward to learning exactly the best ways to do this.

(3) once you are past the come out roll and a point is established then a Don't player has a mathematical advantage over the right side bettors.
"The difference between try and triumph is a little umph."

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London Shooter
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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by London Shooter » Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:05 pm

My thoughts:

1, Come out 7s and 11s and blindly continuing in a long hand not only when 7s and 11s are on the comeout but where many points are also made.
2. Have a stop loss. Maybe your progression allows you to go to 3, 4, 5 bets on the same shooter? You have to stop somewhere within reason. Don't increase your progression by too high a %age. Commonly people double after a loss. Go up say 50% instead and you'll not use up your bankroll so quickly.
3. On average the don't side wins more often than the do - yes this is compensated by the lesser payouts offered and essentially the house edge is the same either side, but you'll find less long losing strings on the don'ts on average which is probably why they are seen to "work" better, as per your quote marks.

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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by Pacecar » Fri Apr 08, 2016 4:27 pm

1. What are the killers of all don't systems?
Two killers: a) repeating Come Out 7/11; b) getting most or all of your DP/DC bets knocked off one-by-one on a long roll shooter before a 7-out.
2. What are best practices to prevent a single hand or back to back hands from making your negative progression multiply too high?
Don't bet on come-out rolls. Only DC bets made after a line number has rolled. Limit your bets to no more than two DC bets (with odds) per shooter. No replacement of losing DC bets. Apply any progressions to bets made on next shooter.
3. Why do negative progressions "work" better on the don't than the do?
Because there is the greater probability of a 7-out before going bust vs. hitting your numbers on the DO side.

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mssthis1
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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by mssthis1 » Fri Apr 08, 2016 11:21 pm

1. The biggest killers I see is not taking the action on 6's and 8's, trying to get it all back too quick if you get behind, not realizing that playing a don't progression with odds takes a larger session bankroll than playing pass line only and not utilizing lay bets.

When i think back about the number of times I've seen the dice go around the table multiple times without anyone making a pass line point back in the day when I was more stubborn, I've toyed with the idea of using a positive progression but I've never taken the time to figure one out.

Only 7% (rounded up) of shooters make 3 or more pass line points. In theory sitting out until a pass is made and then running a 3 level negative progression should work unless you're in the every roll is an independent trial camp. If you chose play this way plan on a lot of TUMA time.

Personally I play a 3 tiered negative progression quite a bit on the don't with a session bankroll limit which is also tiered. If I have a losing session I start with a larger base bet and larger session bankroll the next session.

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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by heavy » Fri Apr 08, 2016 11:40 pm

Where is wwwww when we need him?
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irish
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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by irish » Sat Apr 09, 2016 8:33 am

OK. Let's start with the naturals. The first way to limit how many naturals can beat you on an individual shooter, is to bet the DC, and have a threshold for back to back 11's that beat you. A negative progression can be used on the DP, but you increase volatility, which we're trying to limit as much as possible. We're only going to try to get a single DC wager established and wait for the outcome. In this exercise, we'll use $5 wagers, but you're welcome to increase the base unit.

So now come more questions.

What is the threshold for losses on an individual shooter? (for instance, he/she tosses a yo with your bet in the DC, then you get your DC established, and it's picked off)
How many "levels" to the negative progression? (If your progression was $5, $7, $12, $25, $50, this would be five levels.)
How many consecutive "level" or "tier" losses to abandon session?
How many "tiers" to the negative progression? Let's call this a recovery tier. (Mssthis1 mentioned this. If tier 1 progression loses, do you run the progression with 2X times unit size?)
What is the bet threshold (if any) for "protection" wagers ($1 yo, 3 way seven etc.)
For those that are disciplined, but simply can't watch a long hand go by, do you build in a transition to right side strategy?
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by wild child » Sat Apr 09, 2016 11:56 am

irish wrote:OK. Let's start with the naturals. The first way to limit how many naturals can beat you on an individual shooter, is to bet the DC, and have a threshold for back to back 11's that beat you. A negative progression can be used on the DP, but you increase volatility, which we're trying to limit as much as possible. We're only going to try to get a single DC wager established and wait for the outcome. In this exercise, we'll use $5 wagers, but you're welcome to increase the base unit.

So now come more questions.

What is the threshold for losses on an individual shooter? (for instance, he/she tosses a yo with your bet in the DC, then you get your DC established, and it's picked off)
How many "levels" to the negative progression? (If your progression was $5, $7, $12, $25, $50, this would be five levels.)
How many consecutive "level" or "tier" losses to abandon session?
How many "tiers" to the negative progression? Let's call this a recovery tier. (Mssthis1 mentioned this. If tier 1 progression loses, do you run the progression with 2X times unit size?)
What is the bet threshold (if any) for "protection" wagers ($1 yo, 3 way seven etc.)
For those that are disciplined, but simply can't watch a long hand go by, do you build in a transition to right side strategy?
..
Irish
...Is there any advantage to laying a specific box number of your choice and paying the 5% vig commission on the potential winnings
Vs
simply making serial Don't Come wagers while avoiding paying that 5% steam ?

W C

irish
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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by irish » Sun Apr 10, 2016 8:23 am

WC - excellent question. The short answer is, Sure - why not? However, by virtue of the starting point, volatility will be higher. You're also up against a higher vig the entire way. There's a poster on WOV who employs a lay method, successfully. However, I think some of her success is based on how large her lay bets are, and getting loss discounts on her casino credit.
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by wild child » Sun Apr 10, 2016 3:11 pm

irish
Thank you for the rapid response......
...Frightening feeling we may be in close agreement on this
.
However Factor : You nailed it better than I and in far fewer words....

I am not familiar with " WOV "
<<<<<<<I>>>>>>>>>>>
Because neither the D/P and D/C is a "contract wager" ,they offer a wager maker the option of removing that bet
should the subsequent roll show a number with which said player feels uncomfortable.
( those wagers may be removed by the wager maker after any number of toss trials )
...
Laying a Box Number incurs a 5% commission
Any Box Number bet against may be removed by the wager maker
.
A player may elect to remove the wager without penalty and have his 5%commission
returned ...Should the player become uncomfortable with his wager at risk,he may
instruct the dealer to return it same as someone may do with a BUY WAGER
on the Four ( 4 ) or Ten ( 10 ) usually after some arbitrary number of tosses...
( prior to a decision by the dice)
.
The Place Wager and the Lay Wager share the commonality of being on a number
chosen by the player as opposed chosen by total chance determined by the
out come of a crap shoot.......
.
An objection at times uttered is from folks who declare they refuse to make a bet
that returns less than the $ at risk in winnings upon the wager being decided in their favor..........I fully comprehend the higher vig ...
.
.Not in favor of wagering "The Farm"
or a major portion of the BANK on a single outcome be it
next card,next roll,fastest horse....
.....or whatever commentaries THE HOUSE hangs out as bait to entice the
unwary to stay & play one wager TOO LONG

Not sure if my thoughts contribute much in developing
an all around usable negative progression....
..Should one come out of this I certainly will give it a test ride

just me saying

w c

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London Shooter
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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by London Shooter » Mon Apr 11, 2016 5:06 am

WOV is the wizardofvegas site.

I often read the forum and it still has some good stuff on there. A lot of maths types who thankfully don't stand for any nonsense, such as "I can beat roulette with xx system".

It is also the best resource I know for telling you odds, best strategy and house edge on all casino games, including craps and contains a definitive list of craps side bets too, explaining them in detail, again including house edge tables.

wild child
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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by wild child » Mon Apr 11, 2016 10:14 am

Wizard of Las Vegas...O K now I comprehend..
..been awhile ---have gone there a time or two

w c

irish
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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by irish » Mon Apr 11, 2016 11:04 am

Because neither the D/P and D/C is a "contract wager" ,they offer a wager maker the option of removing that bet
should the subsequent roll show a number with which said player feels uncomfortable.
Though we're working on a "mechanical" system, and I personally would NEVER remove a DP/DC wager that moved successfully to a number since it's then at a mathematical advantage, the removal of a wager is entirely up to the player.

Again, here are the outstanding questions. There's no wrong or right. Simply looking for a quorum of sorts to devise a base play to look at....


- What is the threshold for losses on an individual shooter? (for instance, he/she tosses a yo with your bet in the DC, then you get your DC established, and it's picked off)
- How many "levels" to the negative progression? (If your progression was $5, $7, $12, $25, $50, this would be five levels.)
- How many consecutive "level" or "tier" losses to abandon session?
- How many "tiers" to the negative progression? Let's call this a recovery tier. (Mssthis1 mentioned this. If tier 1 progression loses, do you run the progression with 2X times unit size?)
- What is the bet threshold (if any) for "protection" wagers ($1 yo, 3 way seven etc.)
- For those that are disciplined, but simply can't watch a long hand go by, do you build in a transition to right side strategy?
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

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mssthis1
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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by mssthis1 » Mon Apr 11, 2016 3:24 pm

Here's what I use as a guideline. I'm also willing to make an audible and change if the table conditions warrant it.

Threshold on an individual shooter. 3 losses including losses to a seven or eleven if they come consecutively as in the shooter makes their point and then tosses two sevens in a row.

Levels. 3, but I take odds and don't count sevens or elevens except in the 3 strikes and you're out on one shooter. If a shooter makes their pass and then tosses two naturals I start at the second step of the progression on the next shooter.

If I'm picked off twice by individual shooters making 3 passes I quit if I haven't already switched to the pass side because the table is positive.

I run the 2x progression on the next session or table change if the first, base progression session is a loser.

I don't hedge as I feel you're giving away profit in exchange for reduced volatility.

If I can't set there and watch any longer I place the six and eight for $12.00. If I get two hits, start spreading out on the third hit. If the third hit is a six I'll place the 5 for $10.00 etc.

irish
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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by irish » Wed Apr 27, 2016 7:25 am

I'm bummed that we lost a good portion of this thread in the server move. As I said at the time, I ran the negative progression we developed on the same rolls that occurred for the Lou "test."

Initial Buy In: $300
Base Bet: $5
Largest Bet: $5
Bankroll high point: $330
Bankroll Low Point: $300
Final Outcome: $325 (with an unresolved $5 wager)

With reasonable discipline and firm rules to eliminate large drawdowns on a single shooter, I would suspect that a DC negative progression would be a strong strategy on randies. The question would be whether you could get beaten by the same shooter twice, then watch a long roll......
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

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mssthis1
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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by mssthis1 » Wed Apr 27, 2016 9:52 am

[quote="irish"

With reasonable discipline and firm rules to eliminate large drawdowns on a single shooter, I would suspect that a DC negative progression would be a strong strategy on randies. The question would be whether you could get beaten by the same shooter twice, then watch a long roll......[/quote]


In a market with multiple tables within reasonably close proximity to each other that shouldn't be an issue. Just move to a different table.

Since the weather is rather crappy here today I might try this tonight at a local casino that has tables which are pretty much random number generators. I plan on betting $25.00 units with a win goal of 10 units and a loss limit of 21 units. I'll report back tomorrow with results.

irish
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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by irish » Wed Apr 27, 2016 4:43 pm

Good luck to you! Personally, I'd start testing at a lower level. Let us know how it goes.
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

flextimeLV
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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by flextimeLV » Wed Apr 27, 2016 9:20 pm

Please recap with an example the current DC progression proposal. Thanks!

wild child
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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by wild child » Thu Apr 28, 2016 12:23 am

Irish wrote :partial quote " What is the threshold for losses on an individual shooter? (for instance, he/she tosses a yo with your bet in the DC, then you get your DC established, and it's picked off)
- How many "levels" to the negative progression? (If your negative progression was $5, $7, $12, $25, $50, this would be five levels.) "end partial quote.......................
<<
As players become seasoned by the experience that develops from observing casino excursion building upon more casino excursions you will witness players in the chase
of a win or break even involving a series lost wagers
( Throw aside caution and/or discipline ...........
.....that could even be an otherwise Advantage Player ...)
.
That is a lot of sugar for a dollar ....
...... with the frustration of boldly pursuing financial ruin..
.
Five shooters back to back in a row ..
It may be rare to lose five back to back Pass Line or D/C....However Factor at a craps table anything could occur......
.
There have been a few bitter events that as a Transition Player ,I have experienced
a net loss ...Lost wagers on both sides of the game on one hand....
.
The specifics were having a D/ P with three (3) D/C wagers
then Transitioned to Come Wagers and got my wagers canceled on both sides....
.
That horror show series occurs infrequently...HOWEVER FACTOR...it still happens...
.
Ever stood at a craps table and shooter after tosses every number once ,then 7's OUT?

Then ,with little fanfare several numbers show twice with a sudden ill timed SEVEN ?
Even if you win a single or two wagers,it bottom lines to a U S D loss...
.
Since a series of short hands may encourage a player to wager on the Don't..
...on any hand,it just comes down to being a CRAP SHOOT.....
.
The $5, $7, $12, $25, $50 run to the $50 wager involves $99
Monies at greater value would place at risk substantially larger amounts and could
reach the craps table maximum prior to a decision favorable to our wager maker................
Odds are a five(5) Level negative progression will yield a small dollar amount win,
wager makers are advised to go at it knowing there are zero guarantees ....
...
My thoughts :
The DARK SIDE negative progression is a way to " pay the rent "on table space
while awaiting for the dice to travel around so our D I could turn the game around ..
...At least for one hand....Hit & git

W C

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mssthis1
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Re: Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

Post by mssthis1 » Thu Apr 28, 2016 7:36 am

it took over 2 hours but I was able to reach a 10 unit win.

When I first got there the table was packed so I had to wander around for 20 minutes and was about to leave when a spot opened on SL1. I played a DP progression since I didn't get the end position I wanted.

I played the following way. 10X odds game. Base bet, $5 DP with $30 odds no matter the point. If that lost I went to $5 DP with $42, $45 or $50 odds. If that lost $5 dp with max odds. Seven and eleven comeout losses were ignored.

I did lose 3 bets in a row for a draw down pretty early on. After that the trend was make 1st point, set second point and promptly seven out. Once that started I bumped the odds up a little on the second tier as long as the point wasn't 4 or 10. I know that is counter intuitive to the common thinking but it is too hard to recover if you get picked off multiple times on the 4 or 10. I'd rather lay $60 odds to win $50 on a six or eight than lay $100 to win $50 on a 4 or 10.

We plodded along this way for a couple circuits, slowly building and all of a sudden a string of 5 PSO's in a row and it's color coming in, up $250 and $11 for the dealers.


Except for the string of PSO's a DP strategy probably would have worked better. Nobody was repeating any numbers except for the 5 and there was a lot of comeout sevens. During the entire period there was only one craps winner on the DP comeout and at least 10, seven or eleven losers.

I had opportunities to move to the end and switch to a DC strategy but I didn't do it. I will next time.

The hardest part was saying "pass" when the dice came to me. I've played in this place long enough to know their tables are too bouncy to tame and it's one of the few places that I'm a net loser on my own shooting, but it is still hard for me to pass the dice.

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