Regression

[Americraps]

Does anyone ever play an Iron Cross, or other betting strategy and not regress? I've been examining my current regression strategy on my last book of rolls and discovered that I would have made more w/o regression. Yes, it takes 6 hits to recover your outlay (at least it does on the equal payout version of the IC). Yes, you will seven out before the 6th hit on most hands. The key word here is MOST. The longer hands (and eventually you WILL have them, dammit) make up for the shorter ones and more. My complaint with regression is that you can lose a lot, but recover only slowly. Lets say you start with two wipeout hands. Then you make it past your two or three hits. Now you regress. How are you gonna make it back? If you start immediately pressing after regression, you need several hits to get back to preregressed levels, just in time to seven out, and you are further hampered by not racking your payouts.
So, is regression just a way to sidestep BR fluctuations? At what cost? I am interested in all your opinions on this subject, even if some of them smell bad.

[heavy]

All I can offer is an opinion. I think your ultimate decision should be based on your experiences, how often you play, how much bankroll you have available, and how willing you are to suffer though long stretches of losing in order to get to a big win. Believe me, I've played this game every way you can imagine. For MY personality, frequency of play, and bankroll available I'd rather regress. I can play more often and accept small wins and rare losses and be quite content. But occasionally I'll swing the other way and play very aggressively. Sometimes it works out - sometimes it does not. When I'm playing regularly at the local joints I believe regressions are a must. When I go to Vegas I am much less likely to play a regression strategy - or if I do regress I'm more likely to take a smaller regression or power press back up quickly. In the end I think it's all up to you.

I do recall standing next to a casino shuttle bus driver at the Grand in Gulfport one night. He was playing an Iron Cross strategy that netted him $25 on just about every toss. He was loud and chatty and was giving everyone at the table advice on how to bet - his rack was border to border green and black chips. Then the table turned and he got real quiet. When I left the table his rack was almost empty. What's that old joke? Two guys walking down the street and one sees a dog licking itself. The guy says "I wish I could do that." And the other guy says "That dog will bite you."

[VegasDiceController]

Try this....works with $10-$1000 units

$10 Dp bet..$3 3w7 $1 Yo..get Point established..say it a 9.. Lay $30/$20

Bet $15 on 5 , $18 on 6 and 8 and $10 in field... Get 2-3 Hits and pull your lay off, tell dealers off on 5,6,8 and pull field bet..... take $10 and PB the point... If a 9 shows now you win $4.. If a 7 shows you break even on PL and WIN $30 on that shooter... Once a decision is rendered you go back in same way next point...

Let me know.. I have a friend who plays this way Profressionally.. Buys in for $2000 goes for a 10 units win and he bails first loss after 10u...

[VegasDiceController]

Joe, can you give an example using a $10 table.... My son fired a few questions to me regarding this and I told him I'd ask to to give example for $10 table

thanks my friend

[Golfer]

"The shooter always tosses and scoops up chips every toss and maintains that rythm until Big Red shows."

This has no scientific basis in fact but I do believe it is true, to some extent. When you see someone get on a roll, if you look you will see a rhythm. This is where rythm roller came to be. It is also where the turning off your bets thingy came to be because if the dice went off the table, or there was a dispute or a cocktail waitress comes to the shooter, the rhythm is broken and bad shit seems like it always happens.

One time in Vegas we had a group at the GN and one of Beau's students had a hand along with Hard 6 (Ramon). A table full of Di's and most turned their bets off for the 1st roll after a point was made and then a new one set. Valid reasoning....not at all.

Some days rhythm is easily found....other days it is on vacation.

Later

[Americraps]

Guys, these are very intriguing. I will work with these on upcoming practice sessions. Joe, why do you need an srr of 7 to be sucessful with IC?

[Americraps]

OK thanks

[Americraps]

I just did a figuring on my last book of at home rolls and if I never regressed, I would have made 2.4% vs 1.67% with the regression/power press that I was using. Admitedly, that was a system designed for super long hands, regressing after 4 hits and it never really got to the sweet spot, requiring a long roll with lots of repeaters. Srr was 6.67 for the book and at my house twelve pays triple. Nothing to go wild about, but in my blackjack days, 2.4% woulda been a happy number. On this simulation I was wotco and not hedging the come out as you suggest above. There were a few painful moments of 3 or four 7s in a row.

[heavy]

Good question peteydogg. Here's a simple regression that anyone can use. Start out with $24 each on the six and eight. One hit pays $28. Tell the dealer to "Make my six and eight look like $12 each. He'll give you your $28 pay off plus $24 change and split the other $24 action between the six and eight. You will have a guaranteed profit of $4 on that shooter regardless of whether or not the ugly number rolls next.

There are a number of "standard" regressions - and not all of them put you in an immediate profit position. Some simply reduce your potential loss. Here are a couple of my favorites.

Place $66 inside. One hit pays $21. Regress to $22 inside. You now have $22 action with only $1 at risk.

My boot camp strategy calls for anywhere from a 3 - 1 to a 5 - 1 regression after a specified number of hits. For example, let's say you start with $640 across and leave it up for three hits. After three hits you'll have racked somewhere between $420 and $600, depending on whether or not you get lucky and collect on a few fours and tens. After you reach the designated number of hits you regress to $160 across. Now you have somewhere from $260 to $440 profit locked up for the hand and you can press fearlessly. In this play we go "same bet" on the first hit after the regression, then press every other hit - regardless of which number rolls.

Some strategies will incorporate a second regression after the bets are pressed back up a bit. That's a play I used to make all the time. In recent years, though, I'm much more likely to press until the cows come home. HOWEVER, I do look for negative indicators at the table and when they start to show up I will turn my bets off.

That should get you started. If you have any additional questions feel free to ask. That's how we learn.

[Michael]

Peteydogg,
For us low rollers bet a $12 six and a $12 eight.First hit win $14 regress both the 6 and 8 to $6 each.You have a $2 profit and the 6 & 8 still up.Like Heavy I now press till the 7 shows.

[tconley]

peteydog,
This is going to be based on a $5 minimum table, you would need to adjust it according to table minimums:
A good conservative method from John Patrick's advanced craps book is the regress/ up and pull. You can use this with, or in place of the regress/ full press. Start off with waiting for a shooter to establish a point number (4 or 5 or 6 or 8 or 9 or 10) then bet $12 on the 6, and $12 on the 8. Wait for no more than 3 rolls for a hit on the 6 or 8. If either number doesn't hit, take the bets down and wait for the shooter to 7 out. If one of the numbers hits, tell the dealer to make your 6 and 8 $6 each. He will give you the $14 win, and by reducing your bets, he will give you back $12. This guarantee's you a profit of $2 and $12 at risk.
Incorporating the up and pull into the regression is simple. If your 6 or 8 hits a second time, tell the dealer to go up 1 unit on the number that hits. Instead of full pressing your entire winning's, you are only going up $6 with each hit and placing the remaining profit in your chip rack.
My main betting method is a little different. I play $44 inside($10-5&9 and $12-6&8), 1 hit on any of the 4 numbers, I regress my 6 and 8 to $6 each, and take down the 5 and 9. This gives me a $14 profit and $32 returned by taking my bets off on the 5&9 and down to $6 on the 6&8. Continue with the $6-6 and $6-8 for 3 rolls. If no additional hits, all bets down. If one of them hits, I keep my bets up for another 3 rolls. If the same number hits the 2nd time, I will start the up and pull on that number. The method has each number treated independently. 2 hits on the 6, up and pull on the 6.
2 hits on the 8, up and pull on the 8 etc.... If I get to the point where I've reached $24 on a number through the up and pull, I will do a 2nd regression back to $6 on both the 6 & 8. This would have to be on a hot shooter that's throwing a lot of 6's and 8's.
I'm fairly new to the method, but so far has been successful for me.
I usually play the "follow the trend" method (John Patrick) based on the current table temperature. It incorporates the regress up and pull for the "do" side, and lay/don't come betting on the "don't" side.
best wishes, hopefully this makes sense
Tom

[heavy]

Hey Tom -

Just my thinking here . . . If you're just starting out then tiptoe in when you play. Approach the game with a fixed amount of money you're willing to lose and a specific win goal. If you hit your loss limit hit the road. If you hit your win goal then lock up a profit but continue to play. Just remember, once you hit your win goal never give more than 20% of it back when trying to win more. As long as you are winning - keep playing.

Lean how to read what is happening at the table. For the most part you'll probably be dollars ahead either not betting on the randies or betting the Don'ts on them. Simple don't strategy for a $10 game - $

[heavy]

Okay, I accidentlly hit the post button before I finished up my earlier thoughts. Let me pick up where I left off.

When tip-toeing into a game hold off on playing the pass line. Especially on the randies. Instead, think in terms of playing the Don'ts. I like a simple two-bet play in a $10 game. First bet - $15 Don't Pass. If the shooter tosses a seven or eleven then you invoked the "Dice Doctor" rule and you are through with that shooter that hand. Wait for the next shooter. If the shooter establishes a point then place a DC bet for $10. You use the smaller amount because it will be hedged by the DP against the seven. A PSO results in a net $5 win. If any point number is tossed (other than the point) then you have a $10 point plus the $15 point - $25 total action. You are in a very strong position at this point. You MIGHT consider placing the six and eight for $12 each at this point. If you do this - take a one hit and down approach. Lock up $12 and then take the place bets down. Wait for a decision on the DP and DC. If you get knocked off the DC just let it fall. You still have a shot at a $5 net win on the remaining DP. However, if you get knocked off the $15 DP then consider laying $30 odds on the established DC bet. At that point you'd wait for a decision with no more action on that shooter that hand. This is a real grind approach but it's pretty effective. Concerned about the $15 DP being unprotected? You can always lay against a number as a hedge. Most people go $41 no four or ten, but I like $31 no five or nine. All things being equal - the odds are exactly the same on the two bets - it evens out because you risk less on the five or nine.

Now I've probably completely confused you. Anyway, this is an approach you might consider against randy. And Sharkbyte - if you read this post this might be another strategy for you to test against your book of rolls.

[tconley]

peteydogg,
Observe the table first before you put your money at risk. This is called "charting". You can record the numbers each shooter is rolling, how long or how short their rolls are, and the table temperature. With the "follow the trend" I watch at least 2 shooters in a row before I determine to bet with or against them.
Heavy,
yes I have my WG of 20-30% and LL of 50%
thank you for your advice and this forum, it has improved my game greatly
sincerely
Tom

[tconley]

I think we're getting the "toms" mixed up
thank you anyways heavy

[heavy]

This is a classic thread bump on the subject of regressions. Here's the bottom line on regressions. Think of the "trend" at a dice table as the classic sine wave readout on an oscilloscope. Here, let me show you an example:

Sinewave.jpg (8.57 KiB) Viewed 16288 times

Think of that center baseline as that point where the game is even. The house has no advantage at that line. But the game is rarely played at that point. It's in constant flux. Sometimes it's "hot" and the curve goes up up up. Sometimes the table is "cold" and the curve goes down. That swing from the apex of the top line to the low point of the bottom line and back again represents what we call "variance."

In a random game you want to maximize variance when the table is "hot." You'll make more money if your bets remain constant throughout the cycle. But you'll also lose more money when the curve bottoms out. What regression effectively does is lop off the apex of the hot streaks and the bottom of the cold streaks - reducing your volatility. That means you'll ultimately lose less when the table gets cold - but you'll also win less when the table gets hot.

That's regression theory in a nutshell. Now - back to the subject at hand. How many of you regularly incorporate some sort of regression into your play - regardless of your specific strategy? Could you give an example of how you accomplish that?

[London Shooter]

I think we have to be careful with regression. It certainly isn’t the holy grail/magic bullet but on average will smooth your ride.

However keep it in prespective otherwise it could easily hugely increase your volatility. If you are playing $22 inside one day and suddenly decide MPs classic $204 into $44 inside is the play of your dreams, then strap yourself in for a rocky ride.

Keep things relative to your normal bankroll and buyin levels and think about comfort levels. Visualising 3 consecutive PSOs and how you might feel when the new magic play suddenly goes wrong may make you feel you need to reassess.

Simple plays I have used:

$44 inside, two hits, take 5 and 9 down. Not hits in 3 rolls - take your $44 down. If you do make your two hits, then a couple of same bets then press as you please- up a unit or be more aggressive. Couple this post regression stage with a 4 rolls no 6&8 then down move and it’s a strong play.

Or my old Mannfred Mann play: $24 6&8 for 5 rolls max on first hit, then 4 rolls more max to find a second hit. If you get your two hits drop to $12 each 6&8. Leave up for 3 rolls, 2 rolls and finally 1 roll with all money taken off table if you don’t get a hit at any stage or are fortunate enough to complete the sequence.

[London Shooter]

About right for me too - losses right off the bat, scrambling thereafter

[Bankerdude80]

I like regression. Classic volatility management technique. Reduces losses. Reduces profits...
...The most important thing to understand about regression is that is reduces losses, but you will still experience them. If the graph is below the horizontal by a lot, and for a good period of time, you'll still lose, maybe heftily.

In that regard I think having an adequately funded trip BR to ride those spikes (both positive and negative) is extremely important. That leads to this question,

Which is best: Multiple casino trips in a month where you play underfunded each session, or one trip per month where at each session you are
properly capitalized? I think the answer lies in the old adage, "Do ya wanna win? Or, do ya wanna gamble?"

[DarthNater]

Irish's chart looks like its time to whistle up a ride on the darkside.........D.N8r