Morgue's dark side strategy

[Morgue]

I've been tinkering with a playing style ("system") focusing on the fact that once you get past the come out roll on the DP/DC, YOU have the edge.

My old style was a mini martingale on the DC (10-25-50-reset to 10). I started thinking though, in the long run, once it travels it's going to make money win or lose so chalk it up as a winner if it survives the CO!

My new and improved system is to ONLY mini martingale it if it loses on the come out roll. As soon as it travels, reset the next bet to minimum. My starting bankroll is 500. I've only done 1 trial of this and it doubled the buy in without much issue. I'm yet to try it out at the casino, but am curious to give it a shot. I'd love to implement it in wincraps if only I knew how the blasted thing worked!

I know negative progression styles aren't that popular but with only a 3 loss in a row max AND only on the come out roll, it cuts out A LOT of the potential volatility. I'm still fairly new to craps but it's definitely got me hooked.

Any thoughts/questions?*


* I'm open to constructive criticism, but don't be an arse.

[SHOOTITALL]

Morgue: First, welcome aboard the best craps site on line. That is not too bad. One of the math guys will probably show you the errors of your ways, but take it in stride. Personally, I kind of like that mini. There are a couple of articles by MP that you might want to incorporate into your tinkering. Here is a link to when he posted it in March. Now, there is a ton of stuff on this and MP's site on chasing the dark side. Well worth the time to chase them down and read.
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2629&hilit=dodging+ ... +dark+side
Since you are reinventing the wheel, I have also used that but just on the DP. I suppose it makes little difference if you use the DP or the DC. With either, it's the first throw of the dice after you place your bet that you worry about. In addition, there are some hedging ways to smooth out some transition moves that are located in here some place. I seem to remember it was one of John Patrick's schemes. Anyways, have fun here and keep posting questions and such and do not worry about being disparaged. Heavy takes care of that crap very efficiently. Keep asking away.
Forgot: I still can't fix win craps like I want it and I have had it since it was on a 5 1/2" disc. sia

[luxlogs]

I like 5 25 75 175 on a choppy table when all else fails, it has brought me back from ruin as well as sent me home early. Use is sparely and only when the trend is CHOP CHOP.

[heavy]

Yeah, I'd probably go with $10, $15, $25 if it were me - looking to break even on the $25. But my real preference is to do a five step fibo and look for two consecutive wins before resetting. Limiting it like this; $10, $10, $20, $30, $50. After any win you repeat the last bet. Win that one and you're ahead for the series and you reset to $10. Of course, my real weakness is for playing place bets in combo with my Don't flat bets. Give me a $25 DP then place the six and eight for $12 each. Take one hit on the six or eight and bring them down. At that point you're risking $11 net to win $25 on a bet you have the advantage on. I think that's a very powerful way to play. Yeah, it's a grind, but that's what we're talking about here anyway. Thoughts?

[Morgue]

Thanks for the pointing at the articles SIA, I gave them a good read.

Lux: my casino's minimum is $10. Besides $280 loss for 4 rolls is too much for my bank roll.

I haven't tested with a fibo progression yet because I haven't really needed to. Losing 3 come out rolls in a row is pretty rare. Remember, in this system if it travels, its chalked up as a win. (Even if it eventually doesn't). The theory is that they're long run winners, so the focus can be taken off of them.

It's still early days yet and I'm enjoying tinkering with this type of play, if nothing else, it's a good way to stay at a table for a while.

[heavy]

I like your thought process. Keep it coming.

[SHOOTITALL]

This is just me but a dark side play I like is playing the DP. IF a 6 or 8 is my point, I set a DC and place that point. That's a wash on that number but when you get one of the others you are in the cat bird seat. The 6/5 odds on the 6 and 8 are a little too tight for me. So, I prefer the others.
Lastly, use the search engine at the top of the page. It can take you to great stuff. On this board, there are several years of experience, we can show you our scars, war wounds and missing limbs.
And it is fun talking to guys about craps.
Let me add here: Those articles tell you why you are having success with your system. Hopefully they also point to some areas you have not thought about. I like rereading them about every six months. There is a lot of good stuff there.

[offaxis]

My dark side. I have won many times. Marginal $ 10 -30-70-150- ECT. If a seven shows on the CO, I always wait for the next player. I never bet more then three times on one person. Make Three points wait for the next player. Only once had over $600 down. Mostly go to the $70 mark. Once in awhile hit the $150 mark. It been good to me. Have missed a lot of hot roller with this. It is a grind. If I find its one of those days where, there is a lot of chop, and long hands, I will take my loss and leave. Especially if I am PSO on all my rolls. So if I am losing my money on myself I leave. Of course every time I decided to jump in on a "HOT ROLL" the next number is always a seven.

[Morgue]

Offaxis: that's definitely the problem of taking advantage of a hot streak. You never know when they're there until it's too late. Hot streaks can turn to ice in the blink of an eye.

Heavy: I definitely don't mind a grind. Some players may think it's boring, but if I'm making money, I'm certainly getting excited!

Reading those articles, the MP definitely underrates the "math guys". I actually believe the math is pretty solid. i.e past rolls have no bearing on future events etc etc. I'm also very skeptical of the viability of the DI aspect of the game. I think we all suffer a little from the gambler's fallacy. I know I do but that's not going to stop me from playing. In the end, I'm happy to pay the 1.4c per dollar bet in the long run to play the game and have some fun.

Another name for the system could be the "set it and forget it" system. (damn that infomercial was catchy)

[harveyrb]

Why not just wait until the point is established, then put a lay bet on the #. No exposure to the dark side risk on the CO and it can be any # that you want. Small Vig but is less expensive than what is at risk on the DP. Or insure yourself on the CO with hopping red bets just large enough to keep every thing up if the seven appears. Having used both of these strategies to play the dark side on the CO has worked for me.

[Morgue]

Thanks for the tips harvey, however both placing the point to lose (available here in Australia) and laying a point have quite a high house advantage in comparison to a DP or DC bet. Hopping is much much worse than all of the above. I wouldn't go near them at all.. Infact, I'm not even sure if my casino allows them, they're not marked on the felt, nor are they mentioned in the pdf rules. https://www.crownmelbourne.com.au/Asset ... %204.0.pdf

The appeal of the DP/DC for me is getting paid even money on a bet that favours me after a point is made, the small inhibitor is the 25% of the time that the 7/11 shows its ugly head. I wish it was as easy as just skipping every 4th come out roll...
...WAIT, maybe that's it....nah, that's just stupid!

[Morgue]

Also, minimum bet on single roll prop bets are $5 a pop....way too much trying to hedge my minimum $10 DP bet...

...unless of course it comes up, then it's ingenious.

[Steen]

I've been tinkering with a playing style ("system") focusing on the fact that once you get past the come out roll on the DP/DC, YOU have the edge.

My old style was a mini martingale on the DC (10-25-50-reset to 10). I started thinking though, in the long run, once it travels it's going to make money win or lose so chalk it up as a winner if it survives the CO!

My new and improved system is to ONLY mini martingale it if it loses on the come out roll. As soon as it travels, reset the next bet to minimum. My starting bankroll is 500. I've only done 1 trial of this and it doubled the buy in without much issue. I'm yet to try it out at the casino, but am curious to give it a shot. I'd love to implement it in wincraps if only I knew how the blasted thing worked!

I'd be happy to help out. Here's a short script based on what you've written. I had to make a few assumptions because there are some unknown aspects such as "Do you want to lay odds?" and what do you want to do if your DC loses at the $50 level? Stay at $50 until it becomes established or immediately return to $10? In this script, it remains at $50:

If
initializing script
Then
beginning bankroll = 500 : '<--- need vers 1.0c for this, otherwise set on configuration screen
cs1.numlosses = 0
EndIf
If
DontCome loses
Then
add 1 to cs1.numlosses
ElseIf
DontCome wins Or any(DontCome bets) > 0
Then
cs1.numlosses = 0
EndIf
If
A point is established And all(DontCome bets) = 0
Then
If cs1.numlosses = 0 Then bet $10 on DontCome
ElseIf cs1.numlosses = 1 Then bet $25 on DontCome
ElseIf cs1.numlosses > 1 Then bet $50 on DontCome
EndIf
EndIf

You can copy this text and paste it into WinCraps on the Auto-bet screen. Then check the "Active" box and you're off to the races!

Steen

[Morgue]

It would reset to $10, not stay at $50.

I do appreciate your help Steen, when I have the time (and patience) ill endeaver to learn how to use wincraps. A tutorial would be awesome if one was ever implemented.

I have a V1 and V2 of my system so far...

V1:
1.Bet $10 DP
2.1 if win (2 or 3)= bet $10 DP
2.2 if point = wait for result then bet $10 next DP
2.3 if loss (7 or 11)= bet $25
3.1 if win $25 DP = bet $10 DP
3.2 if point = wait for result then bet $10 next DP
3.3 if loss = bet $50
4.1 if win $50 DP = bet $10 DP
4.2 if point = wait for result then bet $10 next DP
4.3 if loss = bet $10 DP (reset)

V2 is exactly the same except the DP is always "martingaled" to a $50 max then reset if it loses.

[Steen]

It would reset to $10, not stay at $50.

I do appreciate your help Steen, when I have the time (and patience) ill endeaver to learn how to use wincraps. A tutorial would be awesome if one was ever implemented.

I have a V1 and V2 of my system so far...

V1:
1.Bet $10 DP
2.1 if win (2 or 3)= bet $10 DP
2.2 if point = wait for result then bet $10 next DP
2.3 if loss (7 or 11)= bet $25
3.1 if win $25 DP = bet $10 DP
3.2 if point = wait for result then bet $10 next DP
3.3 if loss = bet $50
4.1 if win $50 DP = bet $10 DP
4.2 if point = wait for result then bet $10 next DP
4.3 if loss = bet $10 DP (reset)

V2 is exactly the same except the DP is always "martingaled" to a $50 max then reset if it loses.

Ok, here's a script that does V1 and is written in a way that lets you easily experiment with different progression amounts and number of steps by just answering questions. Again, just copy these lines and paste into the auto-bet screen. Unfortunately, they don't look as pretty here because the format removes the indenting.

If
initializing script
Then
autoHandle winning bets = "Take Bet and Winnings" :
autoHandle losing bets = "No Bet/Take Remainder (if any)" :
cs0.stepnum = 1 :
cs21.numlosses = 0 :
show message
"This file runs a progression on the Don't Pass." & cr & cr &
"Bets are progressed whenever the DP loses on the comeout roll " &
"and reset whenever DP wins, becomes established on a point, " &
"or the number of consecutive losses exceeds the number of steps " &
"you enter. Up to 20 steps can be entered."
: "Get Progression Steps" :
CheckStack(cs0.stepnum) = input(
"How much would you like to bet on step #" & cs0.stepnum & cr &
cr &
"(enter zero if no more steps)" & cr & cr) :
If
CheckStack(cs0.stepnum) > 0 And
cs0.stepnum is less than 20
Then
Add 1 to cs0.stepnum :
GoTo "Get Progression Steps"
EndIf
cs0.stepnum = 1
EndIf
If
DontPass loses And last roll was a comeout roll
Then
add 1 to cs0.stepnum
If checkstack(cs0.stepnum) = 0 Then cs0.stepnum = 1 EndIf
ElseIf
DontPass wins Or a point is established
Then
cs0.stepnum = 1
EndIf
If
next roll is a comeout roll
Then
bet checkstack(cs0.stepnum) on DontPass
EndIf

Steen

[Morgue]

Thanks for your efforts to help me Steen. It wont allow me to paste anything in the auto bet menu though. I have wincraps classic 5.1c
Did i download the wrong version?

When i try to paste, paste is not allowed, however "paste from" is which opens up the sample .bet files.

I tried to paste the script in to notepad and save it as .bet but it wont load because its either corrupted or not a true .bet file.

Forgive me, I have no idea what im doing.... :/

[Steen]

Thanks for your efforts to help me Steen. It wont allow me to paste anything in the auto bet menu though. I have wincraps classic 5.1c
Did i download the wrong version?

When i try to paste, paste is not allowed, however "paste from" is which opens up the sample .bet files.

I tried to paste the script in to notepad and save it as .bet but it wont load because its either corrupted or not a true .bet file.

Forgive me, I have no idea what im doing.... :/

My bad ... I thought for sure you had downloaded the newer pro version. It has a much better auto-bet interface, is multi-player, has a table you can move, size, and rotate, includes more statistics, has more bets, etc. etc. We can write an autobet file for the classic version too but if you're game I would recommend you download the pro version. It's just as free as the classic version.

Steen

[Morgue]

I downloaded the pro version. It works perfect! Thanks Steen.

On my very first simulation, here is what the results produced after 4 hours:

SystemTest.jpg (78.51 KiB) Viewed 17378 times

After a $200 profit, I started treading water for quite some time.

[dhigital]

sometimes I just martingale or even fibo and at a certain point i drop down to minimum and try to recover the lost from the martingale or fibo with a later bet (or roller) or placing one place number and coming down and just let the don't pass / don't come ride. but sometimes it's hard to take down those place numbers. especially when you take it down and the number just hits like crazy afterwards. hate those moments.

[Morgue]

It's important to set a stop loss on a martingale/fibo or any other betting pattern where you increase after a loss. You can get yourself in hot water FAST, if you get carried away.