Re: 6/8 the man's way

rapping.captain · Post by **rapping.captain** » Tue Mar 26, 2013 3:40 pm

King of Dice
Looks like you have been listening to GTC bet the 6 and 8 and you will win a million.
Ain't going to happen.
GTC teaches how to not loose not now to win.
If you are not willing to loose or invest some to make money then not risking any thing is the sure fire way to succeed.

bobthetree · Post by **bobthetree** » Tue Mar 26, 2013 3:57 pm

Yea, there is no way you are making 10+ times your "lifetime bankroll" each night. I was going to try to decipher the notes on the system until I saw how ludacris the claims were.

In the future, if you are going to post a betting system, how about a more specific method of doing so. Lets look at an example...

"Wait for a point number, lets say its 9, wait for a first 6 or 8, then place the 6 or 8 after 2 hits of the 6 or 8 collect and recover bet with odds profit of 7/6."

So you wait for a 6 or 8 to qualify a shooter... then you place them. 2 Hits (same bet after the first?) and down. You now have no money on the box numbers the way this sounds.

"Then use both the 6/8 hits to press and again collect 7/6 odds..."

So wait, you just got done telling the dealer to take you down, and now you want to parlay all your winnings, so you hand all your money back to the dealer?!??!?!

"After that collect/press/collect/press.... until 7 out.."

Now you are just recommending a simple press every other hit system... I was already lost with the starting bit though.

Was anyone else lost like I was?

rhythm roller · Post by **rhythm roller** » Tue Mar 26, 2013 5:27 pm

Whew!

Thought it was just me as I am not the most astute person when I read about betting strategy.

Yes, I was just completely lost as to what was being said and was sure I was missing some details bigtime!

Post by **heavy** » Tue Mar 26, 2013 9:09 pm

Back in 2000/2001 in 7 trips I won $25 k

I'm not going to single anyone out, but we have at least one forum member who is routinely tipped that much for a single session's shooting in certain high limit parlors.

Seriously, I'm having a difficult time understanding your play, KOD. Run through an example of a series for us. Allow me to post some numbers I just tossed on my table a few mintues ago. Tell me how you'd bet these hands:

First hand (tossing the V-2, but switching to the X6 after the first 12 - then back to the V-2 after the 5):

10 - 9 - 12 - 12 - 12 - 5 - 9 - 10

Okay, that may not seem fair since I know you're betting the six and eight - but alas, that's what I rolled. BTW, I was as surprised as anyone at that third 12.

Second hand (Tossing my mutant V-3 the entire hand):

3 - 4 - 9 - 6 - 6 - 10 - 11 - 9 - 6 - 4

Okay, fairly typical of a hand from me with that set. No 8's. I just don't seem to toss them.

Third hand (tossing the 6-5 5-6 on the come out - then switching to the X6):

11 - 12 - 10 - 8 - 9 - 9 - 3 - 9 - 3 - 7 out.

Yeah, that seven came 3-4, my nemisis with the X-6 set. Had I been in the casino this would have been a 28 number hand. So how would you have bet it and what would be the results? Give me a little play-by-play.

Post by **heavy** » Tue Mar 26, 2013 11:51 pm

Okay, I'm going to have to play with this one a bit. I will tell you that on two occasions that I remember I have tossed hands that contained 23 sixes - one session was with Stanford Wong at Paris - another was with Dice Coach at Palace Station. I tossed an hour and twenty minute hand at Binions a few years back that included more sixes than I bothered to count - but absolutely NO eights. I KNOW this because I was ONLY pressing the numbers that hit instead of pressing in pairs. I still had my original base bet on the eight at the end of the hand. Don't get me wrong - I LIKE pressing the six and eight in pairs up to a point - but at some point I tend to invoke Grafstein's "only back a winning horse" theory and only press the bet that wins.

bobthetree · Post by **bobthetree** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 12:25 am

You didn't post your starting values for the 6 and 8. After working backwards I figured out it was supposed to be $60 on each...

First 6 that shows during a point cycle and you place both the 6 and 8 for $60. You then get 2 hits on the six, and have paid for your bets plus profited $20. Then an 8 rolls. Now here you say to press the 8 for $60, which implies you are doubling your bet on your 3rd hit on which of the pair that 3rd hit landed on correct? So get your money off the table, plus a small profit and then press (in this case it is effectively a parlay, while pocketing 1/6 of the current bet) and then the next hit you pocket. It looks like you keep separate sequences for each number based on your example above.

This appears to be nothing more than betting a number pair (6 and 8 here), keeping the bets the same for 2 hits to pay for the bets plus a small profit on the odds, then starting a sequence of (Press 100%, Collect, Press 100%, Collect, etc.) on EACH number

In your next post however, you say that you press the pair TOGETHER! This means that you are either dipping into your pocket and slaying any profits, or that your example is wrong, or that you are not pressing them together... Which is it? I almost had this cornered, and then read the next post and was very confused because that was not how the example played out.

Please keep in mind, that although it is a small scale you are the author here. When you are less than clear, it takes everyone else time to work backwards and try to figure out what you are trying to illustrate when you are not clear. If there are 10 people who take the time to do it, then that is 10 times the amount of work than if you explained it very simply in the beginning... I'm not trying to rag on you too hard, but you will loose your audience if we have too hard of a time following

Also highlighting large wins on Random Rollers sends up red flags for most here. If you have indeed used this to make that kind of money, then you must have had quite a few loosing sessions in order to find that FAR LEFT FIELD outlier hand. You are talking about a gain of 4000/120 = 3,300% !!! Anything can and will happen at a craps table full of random rollers. How often does that happen?

When you make such claims for the most part you divide your audience here. People who take that to mean that this is some sort of successful system that can make money on random rollers... God help them in the long run. And people who have studied craps long enough to know how systems ultimately pan out... And then are disenchanted with your claims. While it is certainly possible you made that much once, the well versed are looking for average returns (If not nothing at all, we are looking to beat the odds by influencing the dice. For DI, the expected returns change based on skill) , not salesmanship on outlier outcomes.

Post by **heavy** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 12:59 am

If I were running a six and eight progression starting at the $60 level . . .

First hit pays $70 - drop $2 and take them to $96 each . . .

Second hit pays $112 - press to $150 each and lock up $4 . . .

Third hit pays $175 - drop $5 and press to $240 each . . .

Fourth hit pays $280 - bring down the $480 action - total $760 - minus my initial $120 wager = $640 profit for the day and I'll let the rest of you guys worry about pressing up to table max.

Then again, as my old buddy Shootitall knows, old Heavy is not afraid to press. But I'd much RATHER press my OUTSIDE numbers while letting my Six and Eight cover my "costs."

bobthetree · Post by **bobthetree** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 1:13 am

Heavy,

Is this your usual manner of play (at least for 6/8...)? Lay down some amount and try to get a profit of 6 times or so on a hand then come down and call it a day if you show a decent profit? Coupled with the 3 strikes and you're out rule, you are targeting either a 4-6x win (depending on if you do it on hand 1,2,or 3) vs 7-exposure risk for approximately 40-60% profit goal. This is assuming buy-in = 10x the amount bet on a hand. If you leave after 3 losses your stop loss would be 30% and I take it the 50% (if used here) total loss limit would happen during choppy conditions? Even that would seem to be hard to get to under general conditions if there is a time-limit stop loss too, although I haven't heard it explicitly stated in a while... It seems the wiser among the DI crowd also keep track of that.

I'm also ignoring any pass line / odds here.

Seems like a pretty sweet "Get in, get up, and get gone!" method to me! Also it seems to target a pretty normalish hand for even a decentish DI if and only if they are on. If you can be on more than you are off even (only 50% of the time!) you could be profitable... Pretty slick.

bobthetree · Post by **bobthetree** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 2:11 am

I think what you are trying to say is that you press BOTH the 6 and 8, but when you use the word TOGETHER you are implying that you take the winnings from one to press each by ~50%. Your method uses both the 6 and 8, and they follow the same press schedule, but they do it independently of each other.

While it is true that the 6 and 8 together have better odds of one of them hitting than the 7, keep in mind that you need 2 hits before the 7 to become profitable! It effectively works out to be the same as the 6 OR the 8 vs. the 7. You can't make the house edge disappear by using slight of hand with the math. You might be able to separate a fool and his money however.

Maybe the Zumma book is a useful tool. I haven't taken the plunge yet with it. Keep in mind that the first few pages are going to have a variance swing to them. You could design some system to any 2-3 pages in that or any other book containing rolls. You wouldn't even have to do that, you could just apply known systems till one works.

bobthetree · Post by **bobthetree** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 2:18 am

I'm tempted to find a way to dump 60k rolls from zumma into wincraps so I can program theses systems in and prove they don't even work over the course of that book. I'd bet that anyone's "system" that could be written in <100 lines of reasonable code loses to the entirety of that book. The more people talk about it, the more my eyes start to glaze over. Also you would have to keep in mind any hacks that reduce the number of times you bet to be so small that you are back to a small sample size and not even close to approaching the 60k rolls mark.

In this particular case - How many hands are you avoiding when you are qualifying by waiting for a 6 or 8? First 3 pages of zuma?...When you chop out 40% of the hands, then the sample becomes much smaller. The less frequently you are betting on hands, the more data you need to get a meaningful sample.

realtime · Post by **realtime** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 7:07 am

All I can say is.......the casinos are still open.

And most of them still have craps tables!!

Post by **heavy** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 9:41 am

Is this your usual manner of play (at least for 6/8...)? Lay down some amount and try to get a profit of 6 times or so on a hand then come down and call it a day if you show a decent profit? Coupled with the 3 strikes and you're out rule, you are targeting either a 4-6x win (depending on if you do it on hand 1,2,or 3) vs 7-exposure risk for approximately 40-60% profit goal. This is assuming buy-in = 10x the amount bet on a hand. If you leave after 3 losses your stop loss would be 30% and I take it the 50% (if used here) total loss limit would happen during choppy conditions? Even that would seem to be hard to get to under general conditions if there is a time-limit stop loss too, although I haven't heard it explicitly stated in a while... It seems the wiser among the DI crowd also keep track of that.

Depends on how I've pre-determined I'm going to play on any given day. Sometimes I play only the six and eight. Sometimes I play only inside numbers. Sometimes I play across. If I run a six and eight progression it usually looks like this:

$18 Six and Eight
First hit - pays $21 - drop $3 on the pay off and press both $30 each
Second hit - pays $35 - drop $1 on the pay off and press both to $48
Third hit pays $56 - you can drop $4 on the payoff and press both to $78 - I prefer to press both to $60 and lock up $32..

Let's assume we went to $78 first. The next hit will pay $91. At that point regress both bets to $30 each and lock up a profit of $143 if my math gene is working this morning. At that point, if I get another hit on the six or eight I'll most likely press both to $42 each, locking up an additional $11. From that point on you can collect $50 for $1 on every hit.

Let's assume we press both to $60 after that third hit I mentioned. Next hit pays $70 - press the six and eight to $90 each and lock up $10. From that point on collect $105 for every hit.

Whew. That's when I'm playing just the six and eight.

I really like playing across - power pressing the outside - and leaving the six and eight at a constant level until all action is paid for. Simplified version:

$160 Across including the point.
Any hit on the six and eight pays $35. Collect it and rack it. You have to collect and rack $160 or more before pressing the six and eight.

Let's assume the four or ten are hitting. I don't press in pairs. I only press the number that hit. Let's take the commission out of it and just look at is based on paying 2 - 1.

First hit on 4 pays $50 - press to $50 and lock up $25
Second hit pays $100 - press to $100 and lock up $50
Third hit pays $200 - press to $250 and lock up $50
Fourth hit pays $500 - lock up $500 and press to $1000
Fifth hit pays $2000 - lock up $500 and press to $2500
Sixth hit pays $5000 - lock up $2500 and go to $5000 (most likely at table max by now)
Smile and collect.

I will tell you that I've had my 4 up to $1000 on more than one occasion when Shootitall was tossing the dice.

When I'm pushing the outside numbers my five and nine play looks something like this.

Five and nine for $25 each (assuming Vegas where we're placing the nine - not buying it like in Mississippi). Pressing only the number that rolls:
First hit pays $35 - press to $50 and lock up $10
Second hit pays $70 - press to $100 and lock up $20
Third hit pays $140 - drop $10 and press to $250
Fourth hit pays $350 - collect $100 and press to $500
Repeat the first four step - just add a zero to the bet size.

This is very aggressive play and will likely lose most of the time - but when you catch a hand it's a killer.

Post by **heavy** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 12:07 pm

The thing about WinCraps is that you can skew the results to show a DI's advantage. Likewise, you can actually cut and paste rolls from BoneTracker into WinCraps and run them. I like to see a minimum of 7200 rolls when you do that. I do NOT like to see them reseeded into random order. As I recall, the Zumma book has a Don't bias.

bobthetree · Post by **bobthetree** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 12:21 pm

The Zumma book is a set of real rolls. I'll give it that. All I am saying is when you chop out chunks of it with conditions that dictate when you actually start betting, that you require more pages to get a decent sample of rolls you are betting on. Also keep in mind that if you were at a real table, these waiting conditions take time and water down your $/hour IF you somehow have something that is working...

Your waiting condition is simple enough that there is still a large part of the time that you can bet, but some people want to see all the planets align before betting, sounds like a snoozefest at the table.

Mad Professor · Post by **Mad Professor** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 1:31 pm

kingofdice wrote:Ask a Casino why they have some BJ tables or Crap tables down, Or even these High house Edge games like 3 card or 4 Card poker...

Because someone upstairs doing the math states that if they open that table probalility kicks in and someone start winning and offsets there profits from the other tables

And here I was thinking that the reason they kept tables closed was so the corporate bean-counters could cut down on staffing-costs.

I've never actually heard the "We can't open more tables because probability will kick in and the players will start winning" argument, King of Dice.

That's a new one on me.

MP

Maddog · Post by **Maddog** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 2:56 pm

kingofdice wrote:...Have you checked it in Zumma ? I checked this for hours and panned out...

kingofdice wrote:...What this system does is one eliminate most of the outcome of 7s and point/7 out...

kingofdice wrote:...No No No never dip into your pockets the house is giving you the money to play with....

kingofdice wrote:...The REASON you stay ahead is TABLE DEPARTURE RULES... Casinos have to depart from the tables as well... at times...

kingofdice wrote:...It WILL happen more likely than not eventually....

kingofdice wrote:...John Patrick was great I remember reading him as a child... But his methods are primal and basic now, time to move on... Especially from Grafstein...Even Scobe is a thing of the past... all basic....

kingofdice wrote:...I feel the systems of tommarow are short term mathmatically sound systems of in and out...

kingofdice wrote:...Remember the house edge in biased in INFINITE PLAY not short term. Short Term can mean days or hours... Even weeks...

kingofdice wrote:...Thats why Zumma works its not on the same craps table like WinCraps...

kingofdice wrote:...Because someone upstairs doing the math states that if they open that table probalility kicks in and someone start winning and offsets there profits from the other tables...

kingofdice wrote:...its guaranteed that the " Casino Math" will Kick in becasue when its not packed the math tends to shoot to the players side...

kingofdice wrote:...Most Casino owners go broke owning casinos...

heh heh heh... thanks KOD... I needed a good laugh today.

bobthetree · Post by **bobthetree** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 5:50 pm

Give me your bankroll. I'll be happy to test it out for you...

bobthetree · Post by **bobthetree** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 6:02 pm

On a more serious note if you ever really believe you have the house edge beat, feel free to tackle this challenge and gain all the fame and glory you want. - http://vegasclick.com/gambling/betting- ... lenge.html - You apparantly need in-casino rolls for this "system" of yours so I suggest you look at the bottom part of the page under the heading [Alternate "Live Casino Challenge"].

Best of luck to you.

Let me know if $30k (from the challenge) in addition to the amount you plan on taking from the casino is not enough. I'll wager another $200 or so.

bobthetree · Post by **bobthetree** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 6:07 pm

Thanks for your 6/8 and outside power press system Heavy, appreciated as always! I think there was a small mistake along the pressing 4 table though. On the 4th hit you have $250 and collect $500, but go to $1000... Would you maybe collect $100 and go to $650 or something like that?

Post by **heavy** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 11:26 pm

Fourth hit pays $500 - lock up $500 and press to $1000

Yeah, I got ahead of myself. So much for posting from work. Fourth hit pays $500 - lock up $250 the press to $500. On the fifth hit you lock up $500 and go to $1000.