The ISR. (Intial Steep Regression)

Setting and influencing the dice roll is just part of the picture. To beat the dice you have to know how to bet the dice. Whether you call it a "system," a "strategy," or just a way to play - this is the place to discuss it.

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thnick
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Re: The ISR. (Intial Steep Regression)

Post by thnick » Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:30 pm

Not a bad way to go in my opinion. What's your buy in? 1K?

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Bankerdude80
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Re: The ISR. (Intial Steep Regression)

Post by Bankerdude80 » Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:13 pm

All good comments with thoughts to ponder.
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memo
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Re: The ISR. (Intial Steep Regression)

Post by memo » Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:07 am

DanF wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:04 pm
I’m all for ISR on good table conditions. But you gotta have a plan B along with it. Can’t go on when it’s not working. It’ll kick your ass quick. It’s why I limit myself when I use it to DI’s showing numbers on their throw. Never ever on a randy.

On a randy. I place the point. And work with what I win. 15-25-30 on single. Or 12$ 6&8
DanF,

I couldn't agree more. If not prepared, this could eat you up quickly. Thinking it through, war-gaming, testing, as you have written about in detail...Is essential.
After that and possibly most important is knowing your self, and having proper bank roll (always the bank roll)

Wizard took the position that one should be equipped to do his designed ISR fifty times, minimum, over the course of a trip. In this case, he only bets on himself. He believes with that much exposure, his advantage should prevail. He has a lot of self confidence, and for good reason.

A person that throws three PSO's in a row and digresses to 44 inside, has little chance to make up for the large initial losses incurred before. And I hate eating all those extra meals after vomiting so much.

Memo

scout
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Re: The ISR. (Intial Steep Regression)

Post by scout » Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:26 am

How true, Memo!

Wizard's reward for playing the same betting strategy fifty times is a positive one for the old bankroll. If I remember conversations with him correctly, he didn't see red at any time after the fifty hands were played out.

An adequate bankroll is essential to embark on such a journey, however.

scout
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Re: The ISR. (Intial Steep Regression)

Post by scout » Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:37 am

Memo touches on an important facet that should resonate with all of us. DanF and others have highlighted it in their posts as well.

That is having a "feeling" for your toss at the tables is paramount. When the toss is on, fire away. Yet we all experience times when we know the toss is amiss, or at least a part of it. In my opinion, that is when discipline can make or break us during that session.

Yeah, we might find some luck to overcome the flaw in the toss at the time. Playing an ISR can be perilous during those times though. It is much easier to walk away and step back up to the tables at a later time.

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DarthNater
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Re: The ISR. (Intial Steep Regression)

Post by DarthNater » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:42 pm

I'm not a regression proponent. But, when in Rome, it's one hit, regress, then off to the races. I want to put the regression in the rear view mirror soonest.

I've seen Mssthis1 & Memo work regressions really successfully so their comments are very credible. I think for me, it comes down to my tolerance for the PSO risk before the ISR and more importantly not thinking negatively early in my hand. My preference when shooting is to not want any early distraction, nor the initial heavy outlay pressing on my brain as I'm wanting to really dial-in the toss and find my spots. I would rather press up with winnings than bet a large initial spread with my bankroll. I know that's a bit contradictory to my darkside approach (i.e. laying more to win less), however when shooting from the right side, my primary focus is on extending the hand vice a couple of hits.

D.N8r
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slowdriver
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Re: The ISR. (Intial Steep Regression)

Post by slowdriver » Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:14 pm

Bankerdude80 wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:18 pm
When integrating an ISR into your betting strategy, how many hits should one take before making a regression move?

The goal is seven avoidance and to make a profit on short rolls if they occur.
Example.
$134 Even numbers ($25,$42,$42,25).
If any of these numbers hit, it is a $50 for $1 payout (net $49).
It takes 3 hits to recoup initial outlay of $134, plus a $13 profit while leaving initial bets on the table.
The regression is to $86 Across ($15,$10,$18,$18,$10,$15) and then follow a standard pressing schedule from there.
Is it better to regress after 3rd hit or after 2nd hit?

Regressing after 2nd hit with a seven out on attempt at 3rd hit results in a $12 net profit.*
Regressing after 3rd hit with a seven out on attempt at 4th hit results in a $61 net profit.*

*Does not account for PL + PL odds, bonus bets, or any hardway bets.

How many hits would you take before you regressed?
I like this idea...one hit would pay for a $44 inside also a 5 a 9 then the 7 would really suck!
I have been toying with a $66 inside 3 hits and down idea.. maybe go to 22 inside on a $5 game.
Slowdriver
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22Inside
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Re: The ISR. (Intial Steep Regression)

Post by 22Inside » Sun Jan 27, 2019 11:20 pm

Or, go 2 hits and regress to $96 across. $2 profit locked up. All sorts of reasonable possibilities here.

Bandit308
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Re: The ISR. (Intial Steep Regression)

Post by Bandit308 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:58 pm

I'm still working on both the DI books to get a solid picture of my SRR 'range' but BT says for my last 6.5 SRR by group I should be able to hit 3.78 inside numbers per seven (if I'm reading that right).

I like the $110 inside pulling a $35 win each time.

I like to try and hit 2-3 depending on the CO number before I get to roll #5. For me, I know I've got a speed bump to get over before I can get to my longer rolls.

The $35 payoff is nice with 2-3 wins, I can place 3 units on 2 numbers that hit with the idea those would be the signature dujour for the role.

I then like to either press a unit in every win and keep the rest or if I'm in the profit use Heavy's $500 progression.

18,42,42,90,90,90,180,180,420....

I've made it wargaming to a $90 but never more. With the average to good role running mid teens- I keep more money pressing up 1 unit per win.

I have real issues with the PSO as well. I've been testing this strategy with $400 session buy in. It's really not enough to weather the table shooters but gives four solid rolls as shooter.

With the ISR, it's possible to hit a 20% win with just the first roll. 2-3 wins then a slow trickle from the progression.

I just wish I had the discipline to walk away up 20% each time.

Bandit308
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Re: The ISR. (Intial Steep Regression)

Post by Bandit308 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:00 pm

I like the idea of pulling the 1st win and bet and spreading that across the other 3 bets.

I'm going to test that out.

thnick
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Re: The ISR. (Intial Steep Regression)

Post by thnick » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:25 pm

How about one hit on 30 6 and 8, down to 44 inside. You got 35 bucks and now have 9 at risk? Next hit on 5 or 9, same bet and remove the one outside number that wasn't hit. You now have 3 numbers in play at plus 5 bucks? Add ten dollars to the risk side if you are shooting.

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