Well, it's Easter and everyone seems to be out hunting chocolate filled eggs, cooking on the grill, enjoying the lake, or . . . whatever. I'm home in Texas for the weekend and with both of the girls grown and gone we're just hanging around the home place. I have a ton of "stuff" to take care of before I head back up to Nebraska tomorrow, but I thought while I had a few minutes I'd jump in and post a few thoughts on betting strategies - and a few "classic" strategies from the original betting strategy book I did back in . . . must have been around 2002.
Okay, admit it. We’re a superstitious lot. Even though we can do a fair job of influencing the dice, we still get distracted and toss those demon sevens at the worst of times. And if it’s not the distraction caused by the cocktail server tapping you on the shoulder or the new money on the table, it’s the box man taking the dice out of action for an inspection. Did he twirl the dice and blow on them? Probably trying to cool them off. Then there’s the stick man leaning in, the old gent on the end betting the Don’ts, and the drunk in the hook with his hands dangling right over your landing zone. Did someone say “seven” somewhere? With all of this working against us, it’s a wonder we EVER get past three rolls and out.
But let's pretend for a minute that we’re not superstitious. You’re obviously an intelligent person or you wouldn’t be attempting gain an advantage at craps by utilizing a precision toss. You LOVE playing the game, right? And that means you also enjoy betting on the chicken feeders. After all, from time to time one of them will managed to come up with a monster hand. Still, you may be wondering why it is that the chicken feeders you see in the casino seldom hold the dice for hours on end like they do in movies. Is it realistic to hold out hope that you’ll EVER be on the table when someone has an hour and a half roll? Let’s look at some statistics and see. It's been awhile since I ran these number but I think they're correct. Remember, I'm not including the Come Out roll in these "length of hand" calculations.
To begin, the average length of a roll AFTER a point is established, but before the number passes or the seven settles the bet, is just under 2.6 throws. It’s actually 2.57 tosses if you want to get specific. Now, if you toss out the trash numbers (craps and elevens) the average number of PAYING numbers that will show before a pass line winner or the seven settles the bet is just under 2.0 decisions.
Understanding the average number of rolls before a decision is the key to understanding why short rolls are the RULE rather than the exception. Once again, I’m rounding numbers to keep it simple. Adding all the decimal points really isn’t necessary to make the point.
Number of Tosses Before a Decision Probability of Occurrence
0 ............................................................ 34%
1 ............................................................ 22%
2 ............................................................ 15%
3 ............................................................ 10%
4 ............................................................ 7%
5 ............................................................ 4%
6 ............................................................ 3%
7 ............................................................ 2%
8 ............................................................ 1%
It just gets worse and worse from here. These averages speak volumes about the prevalence of short rolls in a random game. Fully one-third of the time the shooter will not hit any box numbers before the initial pass line bet is decided. The odds of a shooter tossing eight numbers before a decision is reached are only 1%. In other words, only 1 shooter out of 100 will toss an eight number hand in a random game.
So how do you bet THAT? Well, that IS the question. Let me toss out an example or two.
One way to do that is through one of the many variants of the “Hit and Down” play.
The Hit and Down move is a play that attempts to provide the crapster with a quick win based on the “average” game at craps. If we by-pass the come out roll, then you have a good chance of getting a hit on ONE number before the shooter tosses the seven. But which number do you bet? If you bet - say $44 inside including the point - you're essentially risking $44 to win $14. However, you do have twenty ways to win versus six ways to lose. All in all, it's probably not a bad play.
Let's say you collect $14 on the first toss. On average the shooter will get another decision in before the devil jumps out. Want to stay out there longer? You could do that - or you could regress to $22 inside - or take down the five and nine and leave the six and eight up for $12 each - or even regress down to a $6 six and eight. The point is - one you have that first hit you have options. The best option? I'd say it's probably one hit and down. But the second best option is probably to regress to the point that you have a guaranteed profit locked up if the seven shows on the next toss. So I'd regress to s $6 six and eight.
Let's say you're playing a $5 game and you like to play at a bit higher level. One of my favorite plays is $30 each on the six and eight. After one hit I'll regress to $34 inside - high on the six and eight. That's $5 each on the five and nine and $12 each on the six and eight - with a $1 profit in the rack. From there I might do an outside in press move off the five and nine onto the six and eight. For example, the five hits and pays $7. I'll take down the original place bet on the five and add it to the $7 payoff = then press it all onto the six, making it look like $24. The same happens with the nine when it rolls - pressing onto the eight. I still have my $1 profit in the rack - but this way I've moved quickly to $48 action on the most powerful numbers on the table. Now I'm positioned to win.
Of course, one time in six the seven will show on the first roll and the house will rake your chips. It’s times like those that demonstrate where “averages” come from. Some rolls are longer – and some are much shorter. Just remember - short hands are the rule rather than the exception.
Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
Moderators: 220Inside, DarthNater
Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
-
vegasfan2010
Re: Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
Recently I have seen PSOs from four or five players in a row.
PSOs are a killer for most bet strategies.
They seem to happen in bunches.
PSOs are a killer for most bet strategies.
They seem to happen in bunches.
Re: Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
Avoiding major losses on short rolls is also one of the reasons I came up with the "Heat-seeking Craps Strategy" years ago. Essentially, it's a place-to-come strategy that limits your exposure to the seven to just seven units at any given time. It's been posted on the forum many times but I'll re-post it here for those of you who may have missed it:
Following the Trend: What are your chances of winning at the craps table in a fair game? Even if you are a perfect player with rock-ribbed discipline and played the most conservative of bets, you still have to buck the minimum house edge of 1.41%. But even if there were no house edge your chances in a random game would be no better than 50/50.
The only way to really win at any random game is to take advantage of the trend. Trends are streaks or identifiable patterns. In craps the tables will be trending toward hot or cold perhaps thirty percent of the time. They may actually be hot or cold for another ten percent of the time. The other sixty percent of the time the trend may be choppy with decisions hopping back and forth, both ways. The key to winning is protecting your bankroll during those choppy times, while positioning yourself to take advantage of the next trend.
There are two philosophies regarding betting and trends. The first school of thought says buck the trend. In other words, always bet opposite of the last decision. This might not be a bad move on a choppy table. The second school of thought says follow the trend. When seeking out a hot shooter this is the correct way to play. Let the dice lead the way - and you follow.
The most conservative of betting strategies rely strictly on flat betting either the Pass or Don’t Pass, and the Come or Don’t Come. Many players utilize these bets to follow the trend, betting the same way as the last decision of the dice - or in some instances betting the decision before the last decision. Often times they will play a progression strategy such as the Paroli or the Fibonacci. Both are good ways to play. But the player has no choice in the numbers when he plays the Line or Come/Don’t Come bets. He is truly at the mercy of the dice.
Next to flat betting, the most conservative wager on the craps layout is the Place bet on the six or eight. The house edge on these wagers is just one tenth of one percent higher than on the flat bet. However, in this case the player has his choice of two very good numbers.
The problem with place betting is that it immediately places money at risk. A quick point-seven can be devastating to the player’s bankroll. Therefore, the player should chart the tables and look for certain indicators before placing money at risk. And once the player decides to place money in action he should follow the old adage, “Don’t test the depth of the water with both feet.”
Advantages of the Heat Seeking Craps Strategy: The Axis Power Heat Seeking Craps Strategy offers many player advantages. First of all, it positions the player to score a substantial win with very little downside risk. When played properly the player will never have more than three “at-risk” betting units per hand. Since there is little money at risk the minimum bankroll required to play is relatively small - as little as $150 in a $5 game. And unlike systems that require you to count the number of tosses before entering the game, you do not have to stand idly by the table. You do not have to write anything down or perform any complex mathematical calculations in your mind. You simply watch for certain entry keys and play by a specific set of simple rules.
Does this mean you will win at every session? No. Again, at best you have less than a 50/50 chance of winning in a random game. Long, hot rolls are few and far between. However, by playing a safe, conservative strategy you can find the hot shooters and profit from them. The strategy has a built-in money management feature that helps position you for unlimited winnings while minimizing losses.
Hot Shooter Indicators: While charting the tables you will be looking for positive signs that indicate the table trend may be heating up. Here are the primary Hot Shooter Indicators you are looking for:
1. Any inside number - the 5, 6, 8, or 9 - repeats during a shooter’s hand.
2. Multiple hardway numbers roll during a shooter’s hand.
3. The shooter makes his first pass and gets beyond roll three of his second hand.
4. The shooter throws consecutive sevens on the come out roll.
5. The shooter throws consecutive elevens on the come out roll.
6. The shooter places and wins any one-roll proposition or hop bet.
7. The shooter takes the time to carefully pre-set the dice and executes a
gentle consistent controlled toss.
Negative Indicators: Just as there are indicators marking the correct time to enter the game, there are indicators that tell you not to enter the game, or if you are already in the game to place no further action until you see another Positive Indicator. Negative Indicators include:
1. The shooter sevens out without making his Pass.
2. The shooter throws a craps number on his come out roll (unless he had
placed prop action on that particular craps number - in which case this is a
Positive Indicator.)
3. You lose a come bet to a 2, 3, or 12 craps.
4. One of your come bets travels to the 4 or 10.
5. A casino employee cautions the shooter for any reason.
The Play: Let’s assume you are at a $5 table and you buy in for $150. Take $30 in chips and place them in your front chip rack. Take the remaining $120 and place it in the back rack. Those six chips you placed in the front of the rack are all you need to get started. And remember, you are going to limit your downside risk to just three units.
Conversely, when you win you will place your winnings in the front rack along side your remaining action chips. When the dollar value of the chips in the front rack exceeds $35 the player may step his play up to the next level.
Let’s say the shooter has the dice and establishes a point of five. He tosses the dice again and throws a six. He continues to toss and throws an eight, a ten, and another six. He has repeated an inside number - a Positive Indicator.
Bet 1: Drop three of your red chips on the table and tell the dealer to place the six and eight for $6 each. You will receive $3 change and he will set up the bets.
Bet 2: Place $5 on the Come.
At this point you have $12 action on the six and eight. This is hedged on the next roll by the $5 Come bet, so you have only $7 at risk to win $7. You have a total of ten ways to win on the six and eight versus six ways to lose on the seven.
The shooter rolls the dice again and one of four things happens. He makes his pass, he throws a box number, he throws a craps or eleven, or he sevens out. If he sevens out, the series ends with a net $7 loss. If he throws a craps number and you lose your Come bet you must stop betting until you note another positive indicator. If he makes his Pass or throws any box number your Come bet will travel to that number.
Let’s assume the next number to roll is the nine and continue with our play. The come bet travels to the nine. You now have three units at risk, one unit place action each on the six and eight plus a one unit flat bet on the nine.
Bet 3: Play $5 on the come.
Once again, the $5 Come bet has a hedge effect against your other wagers. You have three units in action between the previous Place and Come action. However, you only have two units at risk.
Now let’s assume the shooter gets the dice and throws another six. A couple of things happen at this point. First of all, your come bet travels to the six. Next the dealer will pay you $7 for the $6 six place bet. He will also ask if you want odds on your six. At this point you tell him “no” and ask him to bring you down on your place bet on the six. You still have three bets working; a $6 Place bet on the eight and Come bets on the six and nine. More importantly, you have locked up a $7 win. So while you have $16 on the layout, you only have $9 at risk. Let’s continue our play.
Bet 4: Play $5 on the come. This time the shooter rolls a four. You now have $21 on the layout with $14 - three betting units - at risk. At this point you have four numbers covered. You may not place any further action until one of these bets wins. This is the highest risk play of the Axis Power Heat Seeking Craps Strategy - yet there are still less than three betting units at risk.
Let’s assume the eight rolls next. You collect an additional $7 for the place bet, but since the bet does not come down you make no additional wagers. You still have four bets working. Now let’s assume the six repeats on the next roll. Since the six is a Come bet you will be paid a flat $5 and the initial wager returned. At this point you hand the dealer $6 and tell him to “Place the six back for six dollars.” When playing this strategy you will always have the six and eight working for you unless you find yourself with more than four bets working. Then you must come down on either the six or the eight. The best practice is to come down on the number that is farthest away from the shooter’s point.
Let’s say the shooter makes his pass and throws the five on the next toss. You won a total of $19 for the last series. You have two flat bets working - the four and the nine. These are contract bets and are working on the next come out. You also have $6 each place on the six and eight. These are off on the come out roll. You have a total of $22 on the table. Once the point is established you will have only $3 at risk due to the earlier wins. Since the shooter made his last pass you may now place a Pass Line bet.
Bet 5: $5 on the Pass Line.
On the come out roll the shooter throws a 3-craps. This is a Negative Indicator. You do not place another wager until you see a Positive Indicator.
The shooter gets the dice again and establishes a four as the point. Since your flat bet on the four was working the dealer pays you $5 and returns your $5 wager. You now have $6 each on the six and eight plus a $5 flat bet on the nine for a total of $17 action. The $5 loss on the come out roll was offset by the subsequent win on the four. You still have $19 locked up and are guaranteed a $2 profit regardless what happens at this point.
At this point you have options. You could come down on the six and eight and leave only the flat bets working. This would increase your guarantee for this shooter to $14. Or you could continue to play as before, flat betting and seeking out the hot shooter. Let’s assume we do the latter.
Bet 6: $5 on the Come.
At this point the strategy progresses as before, the player never risking more than three units and never having more than four bets working. The player continues to place his winnings in the front rack until he accumulates in excess of $35. This is his key to step up his level of play. Take one chip from the front of the rack and tell the dealer you want single odds on one of your come bets. On each subsequent win repeat the process until you have single odds on all of your come bets. Then, on the next win, if you do not already have it you place the point.
Continue to feed your winnings into the front chip rack until you have accumulated $70. This is your key to progress to double odds on your come bet. Only increase your odds as you collect wins, and increase your odds on only one come bet at a time.
Each time the dollar value of the chips in your front rack double you may increase your odds bet by one unit. Continue this strategy until you reach the maximum odds available in that particular casino. Then increase the size of your flat bets from one unit to two and run the progression again.
This simple place/come betting strategy allows the player to see plenty of action while minimizing risk. It forces the bets to pay for themselves first while taking advantage of the lowest vig bets on the layout. Will it win 100% of the time? No system can promise that. But long, hot hands are what most players are looking for in the game. The Axis Power Heat Seeking Craps Strategy will help you survive until the hot shooter comes along. Then - it’s money in your pocket.
Following the Trend: What are your chances of winning at the craps table in a fair game? Even if you are a perfect player with rock-ribbed discipline and played the most conservative of bets, you still have to buck the minimum house edge of 1.41%. But even if there were no house edge your chances in a random game would be no better than 50/50.
The only way to really win at any random game is to take advantage of the trend. Trends are streaks or identifiable patterns. In craps the tables will be trending toward hot or cold perhaps thirty percent of the time. They may actually be hot or cold for another ten percent of the time. The other sixty percent of the time the trend may be choppy with decisions hopping back and forth, both ways. The key to winning is protecting your bankroll during those choppy times, while positioning yourself to take advantage of the next trend.
There are two philosophies regarding betting and trends. The first school of thought says buck the trend. In other words, always bet opposite of the last decision. This might not be a bad move on a choppy table. The second school of thought says follow the trend. When seeking out a hot shooter this is the correct way to play. Let the dice lead the way - and you follow.
The most conservative of betting strategies rely strictly on flat betting either the Pass or Don’t Pass, and the Come or Don’t Come. Many players utilize these bets to follow the trend, betting the same way as the last decision of the dice - or in some instances betting the decision before the last decision. Often times they will play a progression strategy such as the Paroli or the Fibonacci. Both are good ways to play. But the player has no choice in the numbers when he plays the Line or Come/Don’t Come bets. He is truly at the mercy of the dice.
Next to flat betting, the most conservative wager on the craps layout is the Place bet on the six or eight. The house edge on these wagers is just one tenth of one percent higher than on the flat bet. However, in this case the player has his choice of two very good numbers.
The problem with place betting is that it immediately places money at risk. A quick point-seven can be devastating to the player’s bankroll. Therefore, the player should chart the tables and look for certain indicators before placing money at risk. And once the player decides to place money in action he should follow the old adage, “Don’t test the depth of the water with both feet.”
Advantages of the Heat Seeking Craps Strategy: The Axis Power Heat Seeking Craps Strategy offers many player advantages. First of all, it positions the player to score a substantial win with very little downside risk. When played properly the player will never have more than three “at-risk” betting units per hand. Since there is little money at risk the minimum bankroll required to play is relatively small - as little as $150 in a $5 game. And unlike systems that require you to count the number of tosses before entering the game, you do not have to stand idly by the table. You do not have to write anything down or perform any complex mathematical calculations in your mind. You simply watch for certain entry keys and play by a specific set of simple rules.
Does this mean you will win at every session? No. Again, at best you have less than a 50/50 chance of winning in a random game. Long, hot rolls are few and far between. However, by playing a safe, conservative strategy you can find the hot shooters and profit from them. The strategy has a built-in money management feature that helps position you for unlimited winnings while minimizing losses.
Hot Shooter Indicators: While charting the tables you will be looking for positive signs that indicate the table trend may be heating up. Here are the primary Hot Shooter Indicators you are looking for:
1. Any inside number - the 5, 6, 8, or 9 - repeats during a shooter’s hand.
2. Multiple hardway numbers roll during a shooter’s hand.
3. The shooter makes his first pass and gets beyond roll three of his second hand.
4. The shooter throws consecutive sevens on the come out roll.
5. The shooter throws consecutive elevens on the come out roll.
6. The shooter places and wins any one-roll proposition or hop bet.
7. The shooter takes the time to carefully pre-set the dice and executes a
gentle consistent controlled toss.
Negative Indicators: Just as there are indicators marking the correct time to enter the game, there are indicators that tell you not to enter the game, or if you are already in the game to place no further action until you see another Positive Indicator. Negative Indicators include:
1. The shooter sevens out without making his Pass.
2. The shooter throws a craps number on his come out roll (unless he had
placed prop action on that particular craps number - in which case this is a
Positive Indicator.)
3. You lose a come bet to a 2, 3, or 12 craps.
4. One of your come bets travels to the 4 or 10.
5. A casino employee cautions the shooter for any reason.
The Play: Let’s assume you are at a $5 table and you buy in for $150. Take $30 in chips and place them in your front chip rack. Take the remaining $120 and place it in the back rack. Those six chips you placed in the front of the rack are all you need to get started. And remember, you are going to limit your downside risk to just three units.
Conversely, when you win you will place your winnings in the front rack along side your remaining action chips. When the dollar value of the chips in the front rack exceeds $35 the player may step his play up to the next level.
Let’s say the shooter has the dice and establishes a point of five. He tosses the dice again and throws a six. He continues to toss and throws an eight, a ten, and another six. He has repeated an inside number - a Positive Indicator.
Bet 1: Drop three of your red chips on the table and tell the dealer to place the six and eight for $6 each. You will receive $3 change and he will set up the bets.
Bet 2: Place $5 on the Come.
At this point you have $12 action on the six and eight. This is hedged on the next roll by the $5 Come bet, so you have only $7 at risk to win $7. You have a total of ten ways to win on the six and eight versus six ways to lose on the seven.
The shooter rolls the dice again and one of four things happens. He makes his pass, he throws a box number, he throws a craps or eleven, or he sevens out. If he sevens out, the series ends with a net $7 loss. If he throws a craps number and you lose your Come bet you must stop betting until you note another positive indicator. If he makes his Pass or throws any box number your Come bet will travel to that number.
Let’s assume the next number to roll is the nine and continue with our play. The come bet travels to the nine. You now have three units at risk, one unit place action each on the six and eight plus a one unit flat bet on the nine.
Bet 3: Play $5 on the come.
Once again, the $5 Come bet has a hedge effect against your other wagers. You have three units in action between the previous Place and Come action. However, you only have two units at risk.
Now let’s assume the shooter gets the dice and throws another six. A couple of things happen at this point. First of all, your come bet travels to the six. Next the dealer will pay you $7 for the $6 six place bet. He will also ask if you want odds on your six. At this point you tell him “no” and ask him to bring you down on your place bet on the six. You still have three bets working; a $6 Place bet on the eight and Come bets on the six and nine. More importantly, you have locked up a $7 win. So while you have $16 on the layout, you only have $9 at risk. Let’s continue our play.
Bet 4: Play $5 on the come. This time the shooter rolls a four. You now have $21 on the layout with $14 - three betting units - at risk. At this point you have four numbers covered. You may not place any further action until one of these bets wins. This is the highest risk play of the Axis Power Heat Seeking Craps Strategy - yet there are still less than three betting units at risk.
Let’s assume the eight rolls next. You collect an additional $7 for the place bet, but since the bet does not come down you make no additional wagers. You still have four bets working. Now let’s assume the six repeats on the next roll. Since the six is a Come bet you will be paid a flat $5 and the initial wager returned. At this point you hand the dealer $6 and tell him to “Place the six back for six dollars.” When playing this strategy you will always have the six and eight working for you unless you find yourself with more than four bets working. Then you must come down on either the six or the eight. The best practice is to come down on the number that is farthest away from the shooter’s point.
Let’s say the shooter makes his pass and throws the five on the next toss. You won a total of $19 for the last series. You have two flat bets working - the four and the nine. These are contract bets and are working on the next come out. You also have $6 each place on the six and eight. These are off on the come out roll. You have a total of $22 on the table. Once the point is established you will have only $3 at risk due to the earlier wins. Since the shooter made his last pass you may now place a Pass Line bet.
Bet 5: $5 on the Pass Line.
On the come out roll the shooter throws a 3-craps. This is a Negative Indicator. You do not place another wager until you see a Positive Indicator.
The shooter gets the dice again and establishes a four as the point. Since your flat bet on the four was working the dealer pays you $5 and returns your $5 wager. You now have $6 each on the six and eight plus a $5 flat bet on the nine for a total of $17 action. The $5 loss on the come out roll was offset by the subsequent win on the four. You still have $19 locked up and are guaranteed a $2 profit regardless what happens at this point.
At this point you have options. You could come down on the six and eight and leave only the flat bets working. This would increase your guarantee for this shooter to $14. Or you could continue to play as before, flat betting and seeking out the hot shooter. Let’s assume we do the latter.
Bet 6: $5 on the Come.
At this point the strategy progresses as before, the player never risking more than three units and never having more than four bets working. The player continues to place his winnings in the front rack until he accumulates in excess of $35. This is his key to step up his level of play. Take one chip from the front of the rack and tell the dealer you want single odds on one of your come bets. On each subsequent win repeat the process until you have single odds on all of your come bets. Then, on the next win, if you do not already have it you place the point.
Continue to feed your winnings into the front chip rack until you have accumulated $70. This is your key to progress to double odds on your come bet. Only increase your odds as you collect wins, and increase your odds on only one come bet at a time.
Each time the dollar value of the chips in your front rack double you may increase your odds bet by one unit. Continue this strategy until you reach the maximum odds available in that particular casino. Then increase the size of your flat bets from one unit to two and run the progression again.
This simple place/come betting strategy allows the player to see plenty of action while minimizing risk. It forces the bets to pay for themselves first while taking advantage of the lowest vig bets on the layout. Will it win 100% of the time? No system can promise that. But long, hot hands are what most players are looking for in the game. The Axis Power Heat Seeking Craps Strategy will help you survive until the hot shooter comes along. Then - it’s money in your pocket.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
Excellent stuff to remember Heavy. It really hits home. In earlier times I many times found myself sayingHeavy wrote:
To begin, the average length of a roll AFTER a point is established, but before the number passes or the seven settles the bet, is just under 2.6 throws. It’s actually 2.57 tosses if you want to get specific. Now, if you toss out the trash numbers (craps and elevens) the average number of PAYING numbers that will show before a pass line winner or the seven settles the bet is just under 2.0 decisions.
Understanding the average number of rolls before a decision is the key to understanding why short rolls are the RULE rather than the exception. Once again, I’m rounding numbers to keep it simple. Adding all the decimal points really isn’t necessary to make the point.
Number of Tosses Before a Decision Probability of Occurrence
0 ............................................................ 34%
1 ............................................................ 22%
2 ............................................................ 15%
3 ............................................................ 10%
4 ............................................................ 7%
5 ............................................................ 4%
6 ............................................................ 3%
7 ............................................................ 2%
8 ............................................................ 1%
It just gets worse and worse from here. These averages speak volumes about the prevalence of short rolls in a random game. Fully one-third of the time the shooter will not hit any box numbers before the initial pass line bet is decided. The odds of a shooter tossing eight numbers before a decision is reached are only 1%. In other words, only 1 shooter out of 100 will toss an eight number hand in a random game.
I just got everything all set up and now the seven shows....
These days my thinking is about making my regression, initial profit, them, press moves.
Do you have similar insight to 'hand, or roll duration', as Wizard discusses...I believe it is about 8+
I think it includes come out, point set, trash, and hand ending seven.
These two concepts dovetail pretty well. Possibly part and parcel of the same thing, but important in developing a personal betting strategy.
Memo
-
Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
memo wrote:Do you have similar insight to 'hand, or roll duration'
It will be interesting to see if the average hand-duration, duration-erosion, and hand survival-rates that H comes up with vary at all from the ones I've been posting for the last decade or so.
MP
Re: Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
Hey, MP..Mad Professor wrote:memo wrote:Do you have similar insight to 'hand, or roll duration'
It will be interesting to see if the average hand-duration, duration-erosion, and hand survival-rates that H comes up with vary at all from the ones I've been posting for the last decade or so.
MP
Interesting comment...I know you have posted numbers like this before..
I am assuming that hand-duration, duration-erosion, and hand survival-rates, are all meaning the same thing that I was asking about. Maybe that is the difficulty, with all these different names..
I am looking for hand duration...start to finish, shooter begins to the time he sevens out and passes the dice.
Interesting contrast to what Heavy is discussing. Different, but correlated.
I am spending considerable time tracking hand duration then going back and evaluating how the individual points made (or not
)within the hand, affect my betting strategy. As well as come out sevens craps numbers, etc.
Do you have a short synopsis of what I am looking for.
Memo
Re: Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
The number I've always heard and used is around 8.3 rolls from come-out to seven out on average. I think 8 is a fair number to use. Since that's an "average," if I were looking at betting (and we're talking random rollers here) every hand on the right side I'd probably turn my bets off after five or six tosses - sort of an inverted five-count if you will. Take everything down at that point - or turn it off and wait for a decision or an indicator that you should get back in. Again - this is on random rollers and you're looking to follow a streak or trend. There is no guarantee that any streak or trend will continue, but to my way of thinking it makes more sense to follow the streak/trend than to buck the trend.I believe it is about 8+. I think it includes come out, point set, trash, and hand ending seven.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
FWIW, in the 949 live rolls that I have tracked since last fall the average hand length is 8.01.
Longest roll = 49 (by a random roller we'd never seen before)
Freak's longest roll = 36
L's longest roll = 37
34% of hands were 4 rolls or less
32% of hands were 5 - 8 rolls
25% of hands were 9 - 16 rolls
6.3% of hands were 17 - 24 rolls
2% of hands were 25 - 32 rolls
.7% of hands were 33+ rolls
Longest roll = 49 (by a random roller we'd never seen before)
Freak's longest roll = 36
L's longest roll = 37
34% of hands were 4 rolls or less
32% of hands were 5 - 8 rolls
25% of hands were 9 - 16 rolls
6.3% of hands were 17 - 24 rolls
2% of hands were 25 - 32 rolls
.7% of hands were 33+ rolls
I wanna see the dust...
Re: Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
Thanks Freak..
Interesting that your numbers fall in line with what Heavy said...random or not, even with those long hands.
Kinda makes me want to scratch my head.
Seems that any viable strategy. Across, ISR, Inside,follow the trend, should show a profit, long before 8 rolls. At least enough to make up for the losses incurred on the very short hands. It should also have the ability to make money on intermediate to long hands.
Nothing new in that statement....Easier said than done, though.
This thread illustrates that point so well. It also makes me feel a bit better about all those short hands I seem to be producing
Thanks Heavy for bringing this up..
I have been coaching my nephew. He loves the thrill of the game. He gets a few hits and wants to press.
Picture me...Not that long ago.
I am going to send him this thread
Memo
Interesting that your numbers fall in line with what Heavy said...random or not, even with those long hands.
Kinda makes me want to scratch my head.
Seems that any viable strategy. Across, ISR, Inside,follow the trend, should show a profit, long before 8 rolls. At least enough to make up for the losses incurred on the very short hands. It should also have the ability to make money on intermediate to long hands.
Nothing new in that statement....Easier said than done, though.
This thread illustrates that point so well. It also makes me feel a bit better about all those short hands I seem to be producing
Thanks Heavy for bringing this up..
I have been coaching my nephew. He loves the thrill of the game. He gets a few hits and wants to press.
Picture me...Not that long ago.
I am going to send him this thread
Memo
Re: Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
The allure of those long rolls is very strong with me. Tracking the rolls has helped me keep in touch with reality. The more I track, the closer my numbers get to statistical averages. A full two thirds of all hands are 8 rolls or less. It really does make sense to try to get to at least a break-even position by roll 3-4. Either press immediately to win more faster, or don't press until after profit is in the rack. On most sessions we've tossed and post analyze, we discover that "one hit and down" yields a bigger win than "Two hits and regress to break-even or a slight profit and stay in for more possible hits". The problem is we want action. It's really hard to just take that one hit and then come down and wait for the next shooter. For me it's more fun to be in every hand until the end and come out break-even than it is to do one hit and down and make a slight profit. Giving myself a CHANCE for the big score is part of getting "craps satisfied". Watching a 20+ roll hand go by without betting is very depressing. So we've crafted ways to at least tread water until we either hit the win goal or loss limit.
I wanna see the dust...
-
Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
Hi Memo,
Let's see if we can delve deeper into answering your question.
No matter how good our dice-influencing skills are, we will generally have more short (1 to 8 roll) point-cycle hands than we do of the medium (9 to 20 roll) variety. Moreover, we will have even fewer long (21 to 50 point-cycle rolls), even fewer mini-mega (51 to 70 rolls) ones, and finally a much smaller number of mammoth (70+) point-cycle hands.
That is the nature of craps regardless of our skill level.
In essence it means that most hands will have at least two, three or four point cycle rolls in them regardless of their eventual duration, but fewer hands will have ten, eleven, or twelve rolls in them, again, regardless of their eventual duration.
Some hands do go on to have 20, 30, or 40 point cycle rolls before the 7 shows up, but each of them starts out at the roll#1 starting-point and proceeds from there. When you look at a graph for a SRR-8 shooter for example, we see that:
1. He'll survive the first point cycle roll approximately 87% of the time.
2. He'll survive the second point cycle roll about 76% of the time.
3. He'll survive the third point cycle roll around 67% of the time.
4. He'll survive the fourth point cycle roll approximately 58% of the time.
5. By the time we get to the tenth p c roll, he'll have a 26% statistical chance of getting to his eleventh one.
6. On his twentieth point cycle roll, he'll have a 7% chance of emerging from that to make his twenty first p c toss.
If you look at each roll as an independent trial, then his SRR-8 chances of rolling a 7 remains at 1 in 8 (12.5%) on each and every roll; however the cumulative effect that his SRR rate has on roll-duration survivability does not remain static.
Now before anyone tries to tells you that this has anything to do with "due number" theory; I can state quite emphatically that it does not. Instead, it has everything to do with the reality of dice throwing and the expected duration of a given hand based on your Sevens to Rolls Ratio (SRR).
For a random roller, we never know how long one particular hand will last, but we can make some general observations about how long most of them will last, and specifically how often a roll will endure to a certain point.
Equally, we can do the same for any SRR-rate that is either higher or lower than random, and from there we can map out the likelihood of your chances of having a 1-roll Point then Out hand, or a 50-roll point cycle hand and everything in between and that is exactly what we are going to do today.
Using SRR To Determine Roll Duration Range
In a moment, you are going to see a chart which shows how each SRR skill level will generally fair when the dice are thrown during the point cycle. That is, we are going to look at the prospects of how likely it is for a given shooter to get up to his 50th point cycle roll without a hand-ending 7 getting in the way.
Before we do that however, many curious players want to understand how and why the SRR based 7's appearance rate affects each and every subsequent throw that they make and I'm happy to provide the answer.
Sevens Appearance Rate[tr][td] [/td][td][b] Random SRR 6 [/b][/td][td][b] SRR 7 [/b][/td][td][b] SRR 8 [/b][/td][td][b] SRR 9 [/b][/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Appearance Ratio [/td][td] 1 in 6 [/td][td] 1 in 7 [/td][td] 1 in 8 [/td][td] 1 in 9 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Per Roll Probability [/td][td] 16.67% [/td][td] 14.29% [/td][td] 12.50% [/td][td] 11.11% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 7's per 36 rolls [/td][td] 6 [/td][td] 5.14 [/td][td] 4.5 [/td][td] 4 [/td][/tr]
The chance of a 7 showing up on any given roll is determined by each players validated in-casino SRR-rate, and that in turn not only determines his expected roll duration, but it also determines the decay rate of any given hand.
For instance, we know that a random rollers SRR of 1:6 means that on any given throw there is a 16.67% chance that it will result in a 7, and an 83.33% chance that it won't.
Now this is the point where some folks turn off their brains and turn on their myopic-vision blinders. They see and understand single event independent trials of one throw each, but they can't comprehend how SRR rates affect the groupings of more than one throw in a chain of outcomes.
For example:
1. Everyone understands that a SRR-6 random roller will survive his first point cycle roll about 83% of the time, while an SRR-8 shooter will survive his first point-cycle roll about 87% of the time.
2. On the second point cycle roll, there is a 69% chance that the SRR-6 guy will get past it, while the SRR-8 shooter has a 76% chance of surviving.
3. By the third point cycle roll, the R-R will survive this one 57% of the time, while the SRR 8 shooter will get past it 67% of the time.
You can easily see where this is heading...
1. Though the roll duration/bet survival rate for both shooters decays with each and every subsequent point cycle roll that they make, the rate of decline is quite different for each.
2. By the time we get to the twelfth point cycle roll, there is a 1 in 9 (11%) chance that the random roller will get this far, but a 1 in 5 (20%) chance that the SRR 8 shooter will still have the dice.
Again, the SRR 8 shooter might unleash an incredibly long and memorable hand that goes beyond twelve p-c rolls; however there is an 80% (4 in 5) chance that he won't.
Many players bet like every hand will be THE hand of the day (or the century), but most times it isn't. That means that their bets are often disconnected from the reality of their skills. Though their skills are readily apparent, their ability to harvest a profit from their edge over the house is severely impaired by the way that they bet their advantage.
In other words...
While their dice influencing holds up its end of the advantage play bargain (by providing an edge over the casino), their BETTING fails to connect that skill with any level of consistent profit.
We've seen how the SINGLE-event chances of a 7 showing up on any particular roll is 16.67% for a random roller; 14.29% for an SRR 7 shooter; 12.5% for a SRR 8 player and 11.11% for a SRR 9 Precision Shooter. Now, let's look at how the Cumulative Odds against a 7 showing up on a roll to roll basis affects his chances of getting to a certain point cycle roll count:
Roll-Duration Survival-Rate Cumulative-Odds
against a 7 showing up on a roll-to-roll Basis[tr][td] [/td][td][b] SRR 6 Survival Rate [/b][/td][td][b] Cumulative Odds against a 7 [/b][/td][td][b] SRR 7 Surv'l Rate [/b][/td][td][b] Cum. Odds against a 7 [/b][/td][td][b] SRR 8 Surv'l Rate [/b][/td][td][b] Cum. Odds against a 7 [/b][/td][td][b] SRR 9 Surv'l Rate [/b][/td][td][b] Cum. Odds against a 7 [/b][/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 1 [/td][td] 83.33% [/td][td] 5.0:1 [/td][td] 85.72% [/td][td] 6.0:1 [/td][td] 87.50% [/td][td] 7.0:1 [/td][td] 88.89% [/td][td] 8.0:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 2 [/td][td] 69.44% [/td][td] 4.2:1 [/td][td] 73.47% [/td][td] 5.14:1 [/td][td] 76.56% [/td][td] 6.1:1 [/td][td] 79.01% [/td][td] 7.1:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 3 [/td][td] 57.86% [/td][td] 3.5:1 [/td][td] 62.97% [/td][td] 4.4:1 [/td][td] 66.99% [/td][td] 5.4:1 [/td][td] 70.24% [/td][td] 6.4:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 4 [/td][td] 48.22% [/td][td] 2.9:1 [/td][td] 53.97% [/td][td] 3.8:1 [/td][td] 58.62% [/td][td] 4.7:1 [/td][td] 62.43% [/td][td] 5.6:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 5 [/td][td] 40.18% [/td][td] 2.4:1 [/td][td] 46.26% [/td][td] 3.3:1 [/td][td] 51.29% [/td][td] 4.1:1 [/td][td] 55.50% [/td][td] 5.0:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 6 [/td][td] 33.48% [/td][td] 2.0:1 [/td][td] 39.65% [/td][td] 2.8:1 [/td][td] 44.88% [/td][td] 3.6:1 [/td][td] 49.33% [/td][td] 4.4:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 7 [/td][td] 27.90% [/td][td] 1.7:1 [/td][td] 33.98% [/td][td] 2.4:1 [/td][td] 39.27% [/td][td] 3.1:1 [/td][td] 43.85% [/td][td] 3.9:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 8 [/td][td] 23.25% [/td][td] 1.4:1 [/td][td] 29.13% [/td][td] 2.0:1 [/td][td] 34.36% [/td][td] 2.7:1 [/td][td] 38.98% [/td][td] 3.5:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 9 [/td][td] 19.37% [/td][td] 1.2:1 [/td][td] 24.97% [/td][td] 1.7:1 [/td][td] 30.07% [/td][td] 2.4:1 [/td][td] 34.65% [/td][td] 3.1:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 10 [/td][td] 16.14% [/td][td] 0.9:1 [/td][td] 21.40% [/td][td] 1.5:1 [/td][td] 26.31% [/td][td] 2.1:1 [/td][td] 30.80% [/td][td] 2.8:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 11 [/td][td] 13.45% [/td][td] 0.8:1 [/td][td] 18.34% [/td][td] 1.3:1 [/td][td] 23.02% [/td][td] 1.8:1 [/td][td] 27.38% [/td][td] 2.5:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 12 [/td][td] 11.21% [/td][td] 0.7:1 [/td][td] 15.72% [/td][td] 1.1:1 [/td][td] 20.14% [/td][td] 1.6:1 [/td][td] 24.34% [/td][td] 2.2:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 13 [/td][td] 9.34% [/td][td] 0.6:1 [/td][td] 13.47% [/td][td] 0.9:1 [/td][td] 17.62% [/td][td] 1.4:1 [/td][td] 21.63% [/td][td] 1.9:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 14 [/td][td] 7.78% [/td][td] 0.5:1 [/td][td] 11.55% [/td][td] 0.8:1 [/td][td] 15.42% [/td][td] 1.2:1 [/td][td] 19.23% [/td][td] 1.7:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 15 [/td][td] 6.49% [/td][td] 0.4:1 [/td][td] 9.90% [/td][td] 0.7:1 [/td][td] 13.49% [/td][td] 1.1:1 [/td][td] 17.09% [/td][td] 1.5:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 16 [/td][td] 5.41% [/td][td] 0.3:1 [/td][td] 8.48% [/td][td] 0.6:1 [/td][td] 11.80% [/td][td] 0.9:1 [/td][td] 15.19% [/td][td] 1.4:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 17 [/td][td] 4.50% [/td][td] 0.27:1 [/td][td] 7.27% [/td][td] 0.5:1 [/td][td] 10.33% [/td][td] 0.8:1 [/td][td] 13.50% [/td][td] 1.2:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 18 [/td][td] 3.75% [/td][td] 0.22:1 [/td][td] 6.23% [/td][td] 0.4:1 [/td][td] 9.04% [/td][td] 0.7:1 [/td][td] 12.00% [/td][td] 1.1:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 19 [/td][td] 3.13% [/td][td] 0.19:1 [/td][td] 5.34% [/td][td] 0.37:1 [/td][td] 7.91% [/td][td] 0.6:1 [/td][td] 10.67% [/td][td] 1.0:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 20 [/td][td] 2.60% [/td][td] 0.16:1 [/td][td] 4.58% [/td][td] 0.32:1 [/td][td] 6.92% [/td][td] 0.5:1 [/td][td] 9.49% [/td][td] 0.9:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 21 [/td][td] 2.17% [/td][td] 0.13:1 [/td][td] 3.92% [/td][td] 0.26:1 [/td][td] 6.06% [/td][td] 0.48:1 [/td][td] 8.43% [/td][td] 0.8:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 22 [/td][td] 1.81% [/td][td] 0.11:1 [/td][td] 3.36% [/td][td] 0.23:1 [/td][td] 5.30% [/td][td] 0.42:1 [/td][td] 7.50% [/td][td] 0.7:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 23 [/td][td] 1.51% [/td][td] 0.09:1 [/td][td] 2.88% [/td][td] 0.20:1 [/td][td] 4.64% [/td][td] 0.37:1 [/td][td] 6.66% [/td][td] 0.6:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 24 [/td][td] 1.26% [/td][td] 0.08:1 [/td][td] 2.47% [/td][td] 0.17:1 [/td][td] 4.06% [/td][td] 0.32:1 [/td][td] 5.92% [/td][td] 0.5:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 25 [/td][td] 1.05% [/td][td] 0.06:1 [/td][td] 2.12% [/td][td] 0.15:1 [/td][td] 3.55% [/td][td] 0.28:1 [/td][td] 5.26% [/td][td] 0.47:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 26 [/td][td] 0.87% [/td][td] 0.05:1 [/td][td] 1.82% [/td][td] 0.13:1 [/td][td] 3.11% [/td][td] 0.25:1 [/td][td] 4.68% [/td][td] 0.42:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 27 [/td][td] 0.73% [/td][td] 0.04:1 [/td][td] 1.56% [/td][td] 0.11:1 [/td][td] 2.72% [/td][td] 0.22:1 [/td][td] 4.16% [/td][td] 0.37:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 28 [/td][td] 0.61% [/td][td] 0.04:1 [/td][td] 1.33% [/td][td] 0.093:1 [/td][td] 2.38% [/td][td] 0.19:1 [/td][td] 3.70% [/td][td] 0.33:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 29 [/td][td] 0.50% [/td][td] 0.03:1 [/td][td] 1.14% [/td][td] 0.080:1 [/td][td] 2.08% [/td][td] 0.17:1 [/td][td] 3.29% [/td][td] 0.30:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 30 [/td][td] 0.42% [/td][td] 0.02:1 [/td][td] 0.98% [/td][td] 0.069:1 [/td][td] 1.82% [/td][td] 0.15:1 [/td][td] 2.92% [/td][td] 0.26:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 31 [/td][td] 0.35% [/td][td] 0.020:1 [/td][td] 0.84% [/td][td] 0.056:1 [/td][td] 1.59% [/td][td] 0.13:1 [/td][td] 2.60% [/td][td] 0.23:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 32 [/td][td] 0.29% [/td][td] 0.017:1 [/td][td] 0.72% [/td][td] 0.050:1 [/td][td] 1.39% [/td][td] 0.11:1 [/td][td] 2.30% [/td][td] 0.21:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 33 [/td][td] 0.24% [/td][td] 0.014:1 [/td][td] 0.62% [/td][td] 0.043:1 [/td][td] 1.22% [/td][td] 0.10:1 [/td][td] 2.05% [/td][td] 0.18:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 34 [/td][td] 0.20% [/td][td] 0.012:1 [/td][td] 0.53% [/td][td] 0.037:1 [/td][td] 1.07% [/td][td] 0.09:1 [/td][td] 1.82% [/td][td] 0.16:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 35 [/td][td] 0.17% [/td][td] 0.010:1 [/td][td] 0.45% [/td][td] 0.030:1 [/td][td] 0.93% [/td][td] 0.07:1 [/td][td] 1.62% [/td][td] 0.15:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 36 [/td][td] 0.14% [/td][td] 0.008:1 [/td][td] 0.39% [/td][td] 0.027:1 [/td][td] 0.82% [/td][td] 0.065:1 [/td][td] 1.44% [/td][td] 0.13:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 37 [/td][td] 0.12% [/td][td] 0.007:1 [/td][td] 0.33% [/td][td] 0.023:1 [/td][td] 0.72% [/td][td] 0.057:1 [/td][td] 1.28% [/td][td] 0.12:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 38 [/td][td] 0.10% [/td][td] 0.006:1 [/td][td] 0.29% [/td][td] 0.020:1 [/td][td] 0.63% [/td][td] 0.050:1 [/td][td] 1.14% [/td][td] 0.10:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 39 [/td][td] 0.08% [/td][td] 0.005:1 [/td][td] 0.25% [/td][td] 0.017:1 [/td][td] 0.55% [/td][td] 0.044:1 [/td][td] 1.01% [/td][td] 0.09:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 40 [/td][td] 0.07% [/td][td] 0.004:1 [/td][td] 0.21% [/td][td] 0.015:1 [/td][td] 0.48% [/td][td] 0.038:1 [/td][td] 0.90% [/td][td] 0.08:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 41 [/td][td] 0.06% [/td][td] 0.0035:1 [/td][td] 0.18% [/td][td] 0.013:1 [/td][td] 0.42% [/td][td] 0.034:1 [/td][td] 0.80% [/td][td] 0.07:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 42 [/td][td] 0.05% [/td][td] 0.0029:1 [/td][td] 0.15% [/td][td] 0.010:1 [/td][td] 0.37% [/td][td] 0.030:1 [/td][td] 0.71% [/td][td] 0.06:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 43 [/td][td] 0.04% [/td][td] 0.0024:1 [/td][td] 0.13% [/td][td] 0.009:1 [/td][td] 0.32% [/td][td] 0.025:1 [/td][td] 0.63% [/td][td] 0.057:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 44 [/td][td] 0.03% [/td][td] 0.0018:1 [/td][td] 0.11% [/td][td] 0.0076:1 [/td][td] 0.28% [/td][td] 0.022:1 [/td][td] 0.56% [/td][td] 0.050:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 45 [/td][td] 0.02% [/td][td] 0.0012:1 [/td][td] 0.10% [/td][td] 0.0070:1 [/td][td] 0.25% [/td][td] 0.020:1 [/td][td] 0.50% [/td][td] 0.045:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 46 [/td][td] 0.01% [/td][td] 0.0006:1 [/td][td] 0.08% [/td][td] 0.0055:1 [/td][td] 0.22% [/td][td] 0.018:1 [/td][td] 0.44% [/td][td] 0.040:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 47 [/td][td] 0.01% [/td][td] 0.00047:1 [/td][td] 0.07% [/td][td] 0.0049:1 [/td][td] 0.19% [/td][td] 0.015:1 [/td][td] 0.39% [/td][td] 0.035:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 48 [/td][td] 0.01% [/td][td] 0.00042:1 [/td][td] 0.06% [/td][td] 0.0042:1 [/td][td] 0.17% [/td][td] 0.014:1 [/td][td] 0.35% [/td][td] 0.032:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 49 [/td][td] 0.01% [/td][td] 0.00036:1 [/td][td] 0.05% [/td][td] 0.0034:1 [/td][td] 0.15% [/td][td] 0.012:1 [/td][td] 0.31% [/td][td] 0.028:1 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 50 [/td][td] 0.01% [/td][td] 0.00030:1 [/td][td] 0.04% [/td][td] 0.0029:1 [/td][td] 0.13% [/td][td] 0.010:1 [/td][td] 0.28% [/td][td] 0.025:1 [/td][/tr]
1. A random roller has a 5:1 chance of rolling at least one non 7 during the point cycle portion of his hand, but his chances of two non 7 outcomes in a row drops to 4.2:1. When you think about the odds of him getting to the tenth point cycle roll, there is only a 0.9:1 chance that he'll actually get there.
2. An SRR 8 shooter has a 7:1 chance of rolling at least one non 7 during the point cycle portion of his hand, while his chances of two non 7 outcomes in a row drops to 6.1:1. When you think about the odds of him getting to the tenth point cycle roll, there still a 2.1:1 chance that he'll make it.
So although there is only a moderate difference between those two shooters surviving their first point cycle roll (83.33% vs. 87.50%); by the time they get to their tenth roll there is an ever widening gap (16.14% vs. 26.31%).
Again, the chances of a 7 Out occurring on any given roll remains rock solid at 16.67% for the random roller, and 12.50% for the SRR 8 shooter; but each of those 1 in 6 (for the R R) and 1 in 8 (for the SRR 8 shooter) per roll 7's occurrence rates affects how long, on average, each player can expect to hold the dice.
That brings us to the cumulative odds of a non 7 roll occurring; for example
• A SRR 8 shooter is 270% more likely to throw a 20-roll hand than a random roller is, and 450% more likely to throw a 30-roll hand. By the time we get to a 40-roll expectancy; there is a 685% difference; and finally, a 2600% disparity between the expectancy of a SRR 6 and a SRR 8 shooter having a 50-roll point cycle hand.
How Many Point cycle Hands Will Get This Far?[tr][td] [/td][td][b] SRR 6 [/b][/td][td][b] SRR 7 [/b][/td][td][b] SRR 8 [/b][/td][td][b] SRR 9 [/b][/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 1 [/td][td] 8.3 out of 10 [/td][td] 8.5 out of 10 [/td][td] 8.7 out of 10 [/td][td] 8.9 out of 10 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 2 [/td][td] 7 out of 10 [/td][td] 7 out of 10 [/td][td] 7.6 out of 10 [/td][td] 7.9 out of 10 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 3 [/td][td] 6 out of 10 [/td][td] 6 out of 10 [/td][td] 7 out of 10 [/td][td] 7 out of 10 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 4 [/td][td] 5 out of 10 [/td][td] 5 out of 10 [/td][td] 6 out of 10 [/td][td] 6 out of 10 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 5 [/td][td] 4 out of 10 [/td][td] 4.6 out of 10 [/td][td] 5 out of 10 [/td][td] 5.5 out of 10 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 6 [/td][td] 3 out of 10 [/td][td] 4 out of 10 [/td][td] 4.5 out of 10 [/td][td] 5 out of 10 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 7 [/td][td] 3 out of 10 [/td][td] 3.4 out of 10 [/td][td] 4 out of 10 [/td][td] 4.3 out of 10 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 8 [/td][td] 2.3 out of 10 [/td][td] 3 out of 10 [/td][td] 3.4 out of 10 [/td][td] 4 out of 10 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 9 [/td][td] 2 out of 10 [/td][td] 2.5 out of 10 [/td][td] 3 out of 10 [/td][td] 3.5 out of 10 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 10 [/td][td] 16 out of 100 [/td][td] 21 out of 100 [/td][td] 26 out of 100 [/td][td] 31 out of 100 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 11 [/td][td] 13 out of 100 [/td][td] 18 out of 100 [/td][td] 23 out of 100 [/td][td] 27 out of 100 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 12 [/td][td] 11 out of 100 [/td][td] 16 out of 100 [/td][td] 20 out of 100 [/td][td] 24 out of 100 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 13 [/td][td] 9 out of 100 [/td][td] 13 out of 100 [/td][td] 18 out of 100 [/td][td] 22 out of 100 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 14 [/td][td] 8 out of 100 [/td][td] 11 out of 100 [/td][td] 15 out of 100 [/td][td] 19 out of 100 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 15 [/td][td] 6 out of 100 [/td][td] 10 out of 100 [/td][td] 13 out of 100 [/td][td] 17 out of 100 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 16 [/td][td] 5 out of 100 [/td][td] 8 out of 100 [/td][td] 12 out of 100 [/td][td] 15 out of 100 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 17 [/td][td] 4 out of 100 [/td][td] 7 out of 100 [/td][td] 10 out of 100 [/td][td] 13 out of 100 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 18 [/td][td] 3.8 out of 100 [/td][td] 6 out of 100 [/td][td] 9 out of 100 [/td][td] 12 out of 100 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 19 [/td][td] 3 out of 100 [/td][td] 5 out of 100 [/td][td] 8 out of 100 [/td][td] 11 out of 100 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 20 [/td][td] 2.6 out of 100 [/td][td] 4.5 out of 100 [/td][td] 7 out of 100 [/td][td] 9 out of 100 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 21 [/td][td] 2 out of 100 [/td][td] 4 out of 100 [/td][td] 6 out of 100 [/td][td] 8 out of 100 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 22 [/td][td] 18 out of 1000 [/td][td] 33 out of 1000 [/td][td] 53 out of 1000 [/td][td] 75 out of 1000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 23 [/td][td] 15 out of 1000 [/td][td] 29 out of 1000 [/td][td] 46 out of 1000 [/td][td] 67 out of 1000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 24 [/td][td] 13 out of 1000 [/td][td] 25 out of 1000 [/td][td] 40 out of 1000 [/td][td] 59 out of 1000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 25 [/td][td] 10 out of 1000 [/td][td] 21 out of 1000 [/td][td] 36 out of 1000 [/td][td] 53 out of 1000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 26 [/td][td] 9 out of 1000 [/td][td] 18 out of 1000 [/td][td] 31 out of 1000 [/td][td] 47 out of 1000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 27 [/td][td] 7 out of 1000 [/td][td] 16 out of 1000 [/td][td] 27 out of 1000 [/td][td] 42 out of 1000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 28 [/td][td] 6 out of 1000 [/td][td] 13 out of 1000 [/td][td] 24 out of 1000 [/td][td] 37 out of 1000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 29 [/td][td] 5 out of 1000 [/td][td] 11 out of 1000 [/td][td] 20 out of 1000 [/td][td] 33 out of 1000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 30 [/td][td] 4 out of 1000 [/td][td] 10 out of 1000 [/td][td] 18 out of 1000 [/td][td] 29 out of 1000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 31 [/td][td] 3.5 out of 1000 [/td][td] 8 out of 1000 [/td][td] 16 out of 1000 [/td][td] 26 out of 1000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 32 [/td][td] 3 out of 1000 [/td][td] 7 out of 1000 [/td][td] 14 out of 1000 [/td][td] 23 out of 1000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 33 [/td][td] 2.4 out of 1000 [/td][td] 6 out of 1000 [/td][td] 12 out of 1000 [/td][td] 20 out of 1000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 34 [/td][td] 20 out of 10000 [/td][td] 53 out of 10000 [/td][td] 110 out of 10000 [/td][td] 182 out of 10000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 35 [/td][td] 17 out of 10000 [/td][td] 45 out of 10000 [/td][td] 93 out of 10000 [/td][td] 162 out of 10000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 36 [/td][td] 14 out of 10000 [/td][td] 39 out of 10000 [/td][td] 82 out of 10000 [/td][td] 144 out of 10000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 37 [/td][td] 12 out of 10000 [/td][td] 33 out of 10000 [/td][td] 72 out of 10000 [/td][td] 128 out of 10000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 38 [/td][td] 10 out of 10000 [/td][td] 29 out of 10000 [/td][td] 63 out of 10000 [/td][td] 114 out of 10000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 39 [/td][td] 8 out of 10000 [/td][td] 25 out of 10000 [/td][td] 55 out of 10000 [/td][td] 101 out of 10000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 40 [/td][td] 7 out of 10000 [/td][td] 21 out of 10000 [/td][td] 48 out of 10000 [/td][td] 90 out of 10000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 41 [/td][td] 6 out of 10000 [/td][td] 18 out of 10000 [/td][td] 42 out of 10000 [/td][td] 80 out of 10000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 42 [/td][td] 5 out of 10000 [/td][td] 15 out of 10000 [/td][td] 37 out of 10000 [/td][td] 71 out of 10000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 43 [/td][td] 4 out of 10000 [/td][td] 13 out of 10000 [/td][td] 32 out of 10000 [/td][td] 63 out of 10000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 44 [/td][td] 3 out of 10000 [/td][td] 11 out of 10000 [/td][td] 28 out of 10000 [/td][td] 56 out of 10000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 45 [/td][td] 2 out of 10000 [/td][td] 10 out of 10000 [/td][td] 25 out of 10000 [/td][td] 50 out of 10000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 46 [/td][td] 1 out of 10000 [/td][td] 8 out of 10000 [/td][td] 22 out of 10000 [/td][td] 44 out of 10000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 47 [/td][td] 80 out of 100000 [/td][td] 700 out of 100000 [/td][td] 1900 out of 100000 [/td][td] 3900 out of 100000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 48 [/td][td] 70 out of 100000 [/td][td] 600 out of 100000 [/td][td] 1700 out of 100000 [/td][td] 3500 out of 100000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 49 [/td][td] 60 out of 100000 [/td][td] 500 out of 100000 [/td][td] 1500 out of 100000 [/td][td] 3100 out of 100000 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 50 [/td][td] 50 out of 100000 [/td][td] 400 out of 100000 [/td][td] 1300 out of 100000 [/td][td] 2800 out of 100000 [/td][/tr]
One more thing that I should point out is that this chart does not include those hands where you will establish a multi-Point hand that is interspersed with Come-Out 7-winners.
What To Do With What You've Got
One of the most basic elements of dice influencing that players fail to understand is that their short hands will always outnumber their long hands...and it is what they do with the MAJORITY of their hands that determines just how much money they will earn from an average non-headline making session.
Anyone can and should make money off of 20, 30, 50 and 70-roll hands; but how many players make consistent profit off of their 2, 3, 4 and 5-roll hands?
The simple truth about dice influencing is that regardless of how skilled you are, your point-cycle will always contain a declining number of tosses when you look at your roll-duration outcomes on a chart.
...so it really comes down to what you DO with what happens most often, which determines how profitably you will be able to exploit your DI skills.
MP
[/size]
Let's see if we can delve deeper into answering your question.
No matter how good our dice-influencing skills are, we will generally have more short (1 to 8 roll) point-cycle hands than we do of the medium (9 to 20 roll) variety. Moreover, we will have even fewer long (21 to 50 point-cycle rolls), even fewer mini-mega (51 to 70 rolls) ones, and finally a much smaller number of mammoth (70+) point-cycle hands.
That is the nature of craps regardless of our skill level.
In essence it means that most hands will have at least two, three or four point cycle rolls in them regardless of their eventual duration, but fewer hands will have ten, eleven, or twelve rolls in them, again, regardless of their eventual duration.
Some hands do go on to have 20, 30, or 40 point cycle rolls before the 7 shows up, but each of them starts out at the roll#1 starting-point and proceeds from there. When you look at a graph for a SRR-8 shooter for example, we see that:
1. He'll survive the first point cycle roll approximately 87% of the time.
2. He'll survive the second point cycle roll about 76% of the time.
3. He'll survive the third point cycle roll around 67% of the time.
4. He'll survive the fourth point cycle roll approximately 58% of the time.
5. By the time we get to the tenth p c roll, he'll have a 26% statistical chance of getting to his eleventh one.
6. On his twentieth point cycle roll, he'll have a 7% chance of emerging from that to make his twenty first p c toss.
If you look at each roll as an independent trial, then his SRR-8 chances of rolling a 7 remains at 1 in 8 (12.5%) on each and every roll; however the cumulative effect that his SRR rate has on roll-duration survivability does not remain static.
Now before anyone tries to tells you that this has anything to do with "due number" theory; I can state quite emphatically that it does not. Instead, it has everything to do with the reality of dice throwing and the expected duration of a given hand based on your Sevens to Rolls Ratio (SRR).
For a random roller, we never know how long one particular hand will last, but we can make some general observations about how long most of them will last, and specifically how often a roll will endure to a certain point.
Equally, we can do the same for any SRR-rate that is either higher or lower than random, and from there we can map out the likelihood of your chances of having a 1-roll Point then Out hand, or a 50-roll point cycle hand and everything in between and that is exactly what we are going to do today.
Using SRR To Determine Roll Duration Range
In a moment, you are going to see a chart which shows how each SRR skill level will generally fair when the dice are thrown during the point cycle. That is, we are going to look at the prospects of how likely it is for a given shooter to get up to his 50th point cycle roll without a hand-ending 7 getting in the way.
Before we do that however, many curious players want to understand how and why the SRR based 7's appearance rate affects each and every subsequent throw that they make and I'm happy to provide the answer.
Sevens Appearance Rate
For instance, we know that a random rollers SRR of 1:6 means that on any given throw there is a 16.67% chance that it will result in a 7, and an 83.33% chance that it won't.
Now this is the point where some folks turn off their brains and turn on their myopic-vision blinders. They see and understand single event independent trials of one throw each, but they can't comprehend how SRR rates affect the groupings of more than one throw in a chain of outcomes.
For example:
1. Everyone understands that a SRR-6 random roller will survive his first point cycle roll about 83% of the time, while an SRR-8 shooter will survive his first point-cycle roll about 87% of the time.
2. On the second point cycle roll, there is a 69% chance that the SRR-6 guy will get past it, while the SRR-8 shooter has a 76% chance of surviving.
3. By the third point cycle roll, the R-R will survive this one 57% of the time, while the SRR 8 shooter will get past it 67% of the time.
You can easily see where this is heading...
1. Though the roll duration/bet survival rate for both shooters decays with each and every subsequent point cycle roll that they make, the rate of decline is quite different for each.
2. By the time we get to the twelfth point cycle roll, there is a 1 in 9 (11%) chance that the random roller will get this far, but a 1 in 5 (20%) chance that the SRR 8 shooter will still have the dice.
Again, the SRR 8 shooter might unleash an incredibly long and memorable hand that goes beyond twelve p-c rolls; however there is an 80% (4 in 5) chance that he won't.
Many players bet like every hand will be THE hand of the day (or the century), but most times it isn't. That means that their bets are often disconnected from the reality of their skills. Though their skills are readily apparent, their ability to harvest a profit from their edge over the house is severely impaired by the way that they bet their advantage.
In other words...
While their dice influencing holds up its end of the advantage play bargain (by providing an edge over the casino), their BETTING fails to connect that skill with any level of consistent profit.
We've seen how the SINGLE-event chances of a 7 showing up on any particular roll is 16.67% for a random roller; 14.29% for an SRR 7 shooter; 12.5% for a SRR 8 player and 11.11% for a SRR 9 Precision Shooter. Now, let's look at how the Cumulative Odds against a 7 showing up on a roll to roll basis affects his chances of getting to a certain point cycle roll count:
Roll-Duration Survival-Rate Cumulative-Odds
against a 7 showing up on a roll-to-roll Basis
1. A random roller has a 5:1 chance of rolling at least one non 7 during the point cycle portion of his hand, but his chances of two non 7 outcomes in a row drops to 4.2:1. When you think about the odds of him getting to the tenth point cycle roll, there is only a 0.9:1 chance that he'll actually get there.
2. An SRR 8 shooter has a 7:1 chance of rolling at least one non 7 during the point cycle portion of his hand, while his chances of two non 7 outcomes in a row drops to 6.1:1. When you think about the odds of him getting to the tenth point cycle roll, there still a 2.1:1 chance that he'll make it.
So although there is only a moderate difference between those two shooters surviving their first point cycle roll (83.33% vs. 87.50%); by the time they get to their tenth roll there is an ever widening gap (16.14% vs. 26.31%).
Again, the chances of a 7 Out occurring on any given roll remains rock solid at 16.67% for the random roller, and 12.50% for the SRR 8 shooter; but each of those 1 in 6 (for the R R) and 1 in 8 (for the SRR 8 shooter) per roll 7's occurrence rates affects how long, on average, each player can expect to hold the dice.
That brings us to the cumulative odds of a non 7 roll occurring; for example
• A SRR 8 shooter is 270% more likely to throw a 20-roll hand than a random roller is, and 450% more likely to throw a 30-roll hand. By the time we get to a 40-roll expectancy; there is a 685% difference; and finally, a 2600% disparity between the expectancy of a SRR 6 and a SRR 8 shooter having a 50-roll point cycle hand.
How Many Point cycle Hands Will Get This Far?
What To Do With What You've Got
One of the most basic elements of dice influencing that players fail to understand is that their short hands will always outnumber their long hands...and it is what they do with the MAJORITY of their hands that determines just how much money they will earn from an average non-headline making session.
Anyone can and should make money off of 20, 30, 50 and 70-roll hands; but how many players make consistent profit off of their 2, 3, 4 and 5-roll hands?
The simple truth about dice influencing is that regardless of how skilled you are, your point-cycle will always contain a declining number of tosses when you look at your roll-duration outcomes on a chart.
...so it really comes down to what you DO with what happens most often, which determines how profitably you will be able to exploit your DI skills.
MP
[/size]
Re: Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
If nothing else, MP gets the award for being the biggest user of the TABLE function on the forum. Good grief! Thanks for using a large font. Thought I was going to go blind. Lots for good info, but man. I'd wager that 80% of the board members will skip right over the charts.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
I think we need a chart on the percentage of forum members that actually read these charts including the cumulative probability of reading each successive chart in a multi-chart post.
I wanna see the dust...
-
Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
Heavy wrote:I'd wager that 80% of the board members will skip right over the charts.
You are right of course; but you'd also be right if you had added that 80% of the board members are perfectly happy in continuing their losing ways, simply because they won't put the required effort in to custom-tailoring their betting-methods to closely-match their current shooting-skills. 
In fact, the more members who do skip over my stuff; the better it is for those that don't skip them.
Here's why:
~The wider their skill-to-exploitation gap is; the less profit they'll be walking out of the casinos with.
~The less profit they walk away with; the less cause for concern the casinos will have with dice-influencers.
~The less concern the casinos have about DI's; the more opportunity and win-tolerance the casinos will have for those board-members who actually do get something out of my articles.
I consider that a win-win situation.
MP
-
AtGame7
Re: Betting Strategies for a Slow Post Day
What I gather from this thread is perhaps the best strategy is a naked $25 DP bet, once the point is established play $44 inside (including the point if it's an inside number) and once the shooter hits one of your place bets take them down and wait for a decision on the DP line bet.